COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-02-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0511-0611-1110-2811-1612-162021-01-0612-1612-18 --12-0211-0311-1412-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-08 --11-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0111-1711-02
Peak daily increment 56653 210453 7110 16471 3443 3744 10754 23891 3419 455 51954 2609 3555 5428 5558 34945 11039 24662 8604 10468 1746 2908 1168 8404
Days since peak 27 87 82 96 77 47 26 47 45 61 90 79 51 64 24 81 45 85 76 27 95 31 76 91
Last total 3835783 19673313 415522 711417 219580 278201 987329 2232327 198960 2822805 45482 3190701 157495 232520 368710 197553 2560957 981663 1515889 726321 730056 566957 166836 250357 63262 525095
Last daily increment 18607 123233 1124 1264 832 1066 2555 6668 488 79686 244 4347 538 94 1124 1006 7925 3188 2504 5805 1313 0 363 444 296 3775
Last week 146037 741457 8382 14775 3164 9085 40383 68284 3012 192988 2362 120243 4269 3018 7833 7702 75001 24796 33167 72443 14618 10668 7024 11740 1668 9612
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1507-2403-2810-2603-2704-0611-0204-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --03-3104-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 54148 808 1470 238 278 12285 5664 316 21293 147 30360 86 106 1118 5636 1079 802 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3421 27 79 118 -1029 3593 318 19 5 -1069 7 4 9 193 60 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-02-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-01-272021-01-0306-062021-01-1509-15 --11-2812-112021-01-1508-1012-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0812-052021-01-012021-01-042021-01-0312-1611-1812-102021-01-1012-062021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0811-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-0211-162021-01-022021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-26 --2021-01-1411-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0411-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-01-022021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-01-1512-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 55938 9599 7349 16664 92151 13617 10409 4789 4292 27977 17848 720127 234695 695 3891 2756 10353 42323 4984 2448 278 792 16990 8597 167 4362 1493 12560 6415 3244 3691 3407 5353 2969 559 7920 6763 5848 2977 1163 8728 2132 3072 5743 2333 2623 15626 17473 3702 1537 10174 4746 1362 8120 21501 2491 6742 161 3223 12345 1484 800
Days since peak 183 5 29 240 17 139 65 52 17 175 41 26 53 24 58 31 28 29 47 75 53 22 57 30 24 24 81 55 87 58 77 30 77 30 23 19 66 74 79 24 76 30 54 67 18 73 54 24 55 28 66 53 20 80 30 20 79 15 17 57 105 31 74
Last total 28823 9229322 788186 730888 2104506 10766245 1089308 1424596 1869708 1138239 527272 3825739 1456309 2485182 26321120 54213 460860 293581 762145 3342647 397025 253122 37008 78312 1723769 879748 25870 319116 163165 1128506 628391 279008 364498 401163 497073 355636 39538 586831 462125 439067 275706 94070 761301 97680 189564 65020 699093 170895 279146 1428741 899079 390731 143373 849966 445916 108315 687751 2412627 263305 507640 12074 311899 592921 121425 52057
Last daily increment 5 24591 5719 3779 9622 8635 10994 6597 5448 0 1654 17391 2548 7719 134339 98 1221 1220 3741 18383 878 3921 136 423 5726 2901 84 773 482 2315 1709 2052 1617 960 2261 1163 216 2569 729 712 705 121 3775 51 238 347 3465 485 838 8930 3287 1393 957 3920 2530 65 1295 36283 429 2861 121 1744 781 424 145
Last week 37 295966 26489 24388 63154 76718 76958 38890 80803 31000 11106 109511 32731 42832 875537 959 14951 9250 29502 107602 8443 9038 1308 2996 59320 32627 598 5143 2573 20223 13445 7430 13979 13013 18680 11016 1830 10387 6070 7971 9108 1910 33878 674 2815 2942 28639 4191 6293 70116 26161 14397 4018 33205 22249 935 15850 122006 6258 24314 800 9859 8880 4447 905
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-03 -- -- -- --04-0110-0508-02 --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2105-0110-0207-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0204-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 359 45272 1988 2860 22834 8380 10923 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9153 729 948 190 409 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26264 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 291 1048 4599 1270 4741 1435 -708 882 74 482 3181 179 72 31 126 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 463 142 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-01 3835783 19673313 415522 711417 219580 278201 987329 2232327 198960 2822805 45482 3190701 157495 232520 368710 197553 2560957 981663 1515889 726321 730056 566957 166836 250357 63262 525095
2021-02-02 3855000 19821000 417600 712300 219900 280200 995000 2252000 199600 2856000 45510 3213000 157700 233300 369200 198700 2566000 986000 1523000 730100 733300 576400 168500 252500 63260 528100
2021-02-03 3875000 19965000 418900 715300 220400 282500 1002000 2266000 200200 2896000 45990 3231000 158400 234100 369900 199800 2575000 990000 1528000 741200 736000 578400 170100 254900 63410 530000
2021-02-04 3894000 20087000 420300 717900 220800 284200 1009000 2277000 200800 2934000 46370 3250000 159000 234600 371300 200900 2584000 994000 1534000 752600 738500 582400 171400 256700 63530 531600
2021-02-05 3913000 20230000 421600 720100 221400 285600 1016000 2288000 201300 2974000 46690 3268000 159700 235100 372600 201900 2592000 998000 1539000 760100 741100 583900 172500 258700 63750 533800
2021-02-06 3932000 20324000 423000 722500 221700 286700 1025000 2303000 201900 2974000 47060 3285000 160400 235700 374100 203000 2602000 1002000 1544000 769500 744100 583900 173900 260700 63750 534100
2021-02-07 3951000 20381000 423900 724500 221800 287700 1027000 2303000 202500 2974000 47390 3303000 160800 235800 375300 204000 2608000 1006000 1548000 776100 745300 583900 174100 262000 63750 534100
2021-02-08 3971000 20501000 425000 725400 222500 288500 1029000 2309000 203100 3052000 47600 3321000 161200 235800 376300 205100 2614000 1011000 1551000 782200 746400 583900 174300 262300 64000 537400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-01 9229322 788186 730888 2104506 10766245 1089308 1424596 1869708 1138239 527272 3825739 1456309 2485182 26321120 54213 460860 293581 762145 3342647 397025 253122 37008 78312 1723769 879748 25870 319116 163165 1128506 628391 279008 364498 401163 497073 355636 39538 586831 462125 439067 275706 94070 761301 97680 189564 65020 699093 170895 279146 1428741 899079 390731 143373 849966 445916 108315 687751 2412627 263305 507640 12074 311899 592921 121425 52057
2021-02-02 9295000 792100 734700 2110000 10783000 1095000 1431000 1893000 1143000 529000 3843000 1470000 2493000 26460000 54380 464300 294200 767800 3361000 398700 256800 37220 78850 1730000 893200 26010 320400 164500 1130000 630500 280600 366900 404400 500000 357400 40540 590000 463100 440400 277900 94300 767600 97870 190600 65830 703800 171200 280500 1440000 903500 393200 144000 854800 449700 108400 690300 2428000 264400 511500 12210 313700 594400 122000 52230
2021-02-03 9353000 795800 737900 2115000 10794000 1105000 1437000 1910000 1148000 530700 3860000 1476000 2500000 26599000 54540 466700 294800 773400 3378000 399800 258800 37440 79380 1735000 898300 26060 321300 165000 1132000 632600 283500 369300 407200 502800 359200 40970 591800 464100 441800 279500 94530 773500 97990 191400 66580 708600 171600 281800 1446000 907500 395500 144700 859800 453400 108500 692800 2447000 265500 515400 12340 315400 595900 122600 52400
2021-02-04 9412000 799700 742000 2120000 10810000 1116000 1443000 1927000 1152000 532400 3877000 1482000 2507000 26735000 54700 469600 295600 779000 3396000 401000 259900 37640 79900 1741000 904600 26150 322200 165400 1133000 634600 283500 371700 409700 505500 360900 41310 593800 465100 443100 281000 94750 779500 98120 192100 67300 713200 172100 283000 1455000 911500 397900 145400 864500 457200 108500 695200 2468000 266600 519200 12470 317000 597300 123200 52570
2021-02-05 9468000 803400 746400 2125000 10820000 1127000 1448000 1943000 1157000 534100 3893000 1487000 2514000 26872000 54860 472200 296400 784500 3413000 402600 261500 37850 80420 1747000 910800 26280 323300 166000 1135000 636600 285800 374100 411800 508200 362700 41730 595900 466000 444400 282900 94990 785300 98270 192300 68010 717900 172700 284300 1463000 915500 400300 146000 869400 461000 108600 697500 2486000 267700 523000 12600 318600 598800 123900 52740
2021-02-06 9524000 807200 750300 2130000 10834000 1138000 1454000 1960000 1162000 535800 3910000 1494000 2521000 27008000 55020 473300 297400 790100 3431000 404200 261500 38060 80940 1754000 917000 26400 324000 166400 1137000 638700 285800 376500 411800 510900 364400 42070 597400 467000 445800 284600 95220 791000 98390 193000 68710 722700 173000 285600 1474000 919400 402600 146700 874300 464800 108700 699900 2500000 268800 526800 12730 320200 600300 124500 52910
2021-02-07 9545000 810900 754400 2135000 10845000 1148000 1460000 1967000 1166000 537400 3926000 1498000 2528000 27145000 55170 476000 297400 795700 3448000 404900 261500 38270 81470 1760000 919800 26470 324000 166400 1139000 640700 285800 378800 414300 513600 366200 42110 597400 467900 447100 285400 95450 796700 98430 193100 69400 727400 173200 286800 1481000 923400 405000 147400 879100 468600 108700 702200 2510000 269800 530700 12860 321700 601800 125100 53080
2021-02-08 9566000 814700 757900 2141000 10852000 1158000 1466000 1972000 1171000 539100 3943000 1502000 2535000 27283000 55330 477100 297800 801400 3466000 405600 265000 38480 81990 1766000 922800 26570 324700 166500 1140000 642700 287500 381200 415400 516300 368000 42360 599300 468800 448400 286200 95680 802300 98470 193400 70100 732100 173700 288100 1491000 927300 407400 148000 884000 472500 108800 704600 2538000 270900 534500 12990 323300 603300 125700 53250

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-01 3835783 19673313 415522 711417 219580 278201 987329 2232327 198960 2822805 45482 3190701 157495 232520 368710 197553 2560957 981663 1515889 726321 730056 566957 166836 250357 63262 525095
2021-02-02 3853000 19767000 416700 713200 220200 279100 993000 2238000 199500 2855000 45760 3208000 158200 232900 369400 198400 2567000 985000 1520000 735300 732300 572600 168000 251900 63520 526400
2021-02-03 3873000 19871000 418100 715500 220600 281500 1001000 2247000 200000 2893000 46090 3226000 158900 233500 370300 199000 2575000 989000 1525000 748200 734700 574700 169400 254200 63720 528000
2021-02-04 3893000 19948000 419500 717600 221000 283300 1008000 2254000 200600 2932000 46370 3244000 159500 234000 371800 199600 2583000 993000 1530000 761200 737000 578000 170600 256100 63940 529200
2021-02-05 3914000 20038000 420800 719600 221600 284700 1014000 2260000 201200 2971000 46610 3261000 160100 234500 373000 200100 2590000 997000 1536000 772500 739200 580500 171700 258200 64170 530600
2021-02-06 3934000 20099000 422300 721500 221900 286000 1022000 2269000 201700 2987000 46830 3278000 160700 235100 374200 200700 2597000 1000000 1541000 784300 741800 581800 173000 260300 64310 531400
2021-02-07 3955000 20147000 423500 723300 222000 287100 1025000 2273000 202300 3003000 47060 3296000 161100 235500 375600 201300 2603000 1004000 1546000 796300 743500 582400 173900 262100 64410 532000
2021-02-08 3974000 20220000 424400 724600 222500 288300 1027000 2277000 202900 3069000 47220 3312000 161500 235800 376400 201900 2608000 1008000 1550000 806900 744700 583200 174500 263400 64540 534200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-02 to 2021-02-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-01 9229322 788186 730888 2104506 10766245 1089308 1424596 1869708 1138239 527272 3825739 1456309 2485182 26321120 54213 460860 293581 762145 3342647 397025 253122 37008 78312 1723769 879748 25870 319116 163165 1128506 628391 279008 364498 401163 497073 355636 39538 586831 462125 439067 275706 94070 761301 97680 189564 65020 699093 170895 279146 1428741 899079 390731 143373 849966 445916 108315 687751 2412627 263305 507640 12074 311899 592921 121425 52057
2021-02-02 9290000 792000 734000 2113000 10774000 1101000 1430000 1882000 1143000 528900 3838000 1460000 2492000 26440000 54340 463000 294700 766700 3357000 397900 254400 37200 78790 1732000 885800 25950 319800 163600 1131000 630100 279200 366500 403600 499400 356900 39930 588100 463000 440100 276700 94330 765300 97770 189900 65570 703500 171400 280200 1439000 902300 392800 144000 853800 447900 108400 689700 2434000 264100 511000 12190 312900 594000 122000 52190
2021-02-03 9348000 795500 737200 2125000 10780000 1113000 1435000 1898000 1147000 530300 3847000 1465000 2498000 26565000 54490 465100 296100 771500 3367000 399100 256200 37340 79280 1741000 891400 26030 320700 164100 1134000 632000 281300 368700 406300 501700 358300 40340 589900 463800 441200 278200 94650 770300 97890 190500 66210 708300 172000 281000 1450000 905900 394900 144600 858600 451700 108600 691900 2451000 265100 514900 12300 314100 595200 122700 52340
2021-02-04 9407000 799200 741200 2135000 10788000 1126000 1439000 1915000 1151000 531700 3856000 1471000 2504000 26697000 54640 467300 297400 776300 3378000 400300 257600 37530 79770 1749000 897500 26120 321500 164500 1138000 634000 281800 371000 408800 503900 359900 40670 591700 464700 442400 279600 94970 776200 98010 191100 66840 713000 172700 282000 1461000 909700 397000 145200 863400 455400 108700 694200 2470000 266100 518700 12440 315600 596600 123400 52480
2021-02-05 9462000 802700 745700 2146000 10793000 1139000 1443000 1931000 1156000 533000 3865000 1475000 2510000 26832000 54780 469300 298700 781100 3390000 401600 259100 37750 80260 1758000 903500 26240 322400 165000 1141000 635900 283600 373200 410700 506100 361300 41040 593500 465500 443500 281200 95280 782300 98150 191400 67460 717900 173600 283000 1472000 912900 399200 145800 868500 459500 108900 696500 2485000 267100 522500 12570 316800 597800 124100 52630
2021-02-06 9527000 806000 749900 2159000 10801000 1152000 1447000 1948000 1161000 534300 3874000 1482000 2516000 26962000 54930 470800 300200 785900 3401000 403200 260100 37930 80750 1767000 910500 26350 323200 165500 1144000 638100 284400 375400 411400 508200 362900 41430 594900 466300 444700 282800 95580 787500 98250 192100 68090 722900 174200 284000 1484000 915900 401300 146400 873100 464000 109000 698700 2498000 268100 526300 12710 317800 599000 124800 52760
2021-02-07 9557000 809400 754100 2170000 10807000 1164000 1451000 1962000 1165000 535500 3882000 1487000 2522000 27066000 55080 472600 301200 790800 3411000 404300 261100 38100 81250 1776000 915800 26460 323700 165900 1147000 640200 285200 377700 414100 510300 364200 41650 595300 467100 445900 284000 95810 795300 98350 192600 68720 727600 174600 284900 1495000 918200 403500 146900 877900 468400 109200 700900 2505000 269100 530100 12840 318700 600300 125600 52900
2021-02-08 9578000 813100 758100 2181000 10812000 1174000 1454000 1975000 1169000 536800 3891000 1492000 2528000 27174000 55230 473800 302100 795700 3421000 405000 264300 38230 81750 1785000 920600 26550 324400 166300 1150000 642100 287200 380000 415400 512300 365200 41990 597700 468000 447100 285000 96020 798200 98410 193100 69360 732100 175000 285700 1507000 920400 405700 147500 882600 471500 109300 702800 2520000 270100 534000 12950 319600 601100 126300 53050

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed