COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-02-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-182021-01-0812-1612-182021-01-2512-0511-0311-1412-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Peak daily increment 57035 210456 7110 16471 3443 3823 11355 23891 3419 35403 455 51954 2609 3555 5428 5753 34947 11039 24662 12064 8604 8566 1746 2815 1168 8404
Days since peak 36 99 94 108 89 57 36 59 57 19 70 102 91 63 76 36 93 57 97 21 88 39 107 41 88 103
Last total 4027106 20872068 432303 737115 229516 292279 1082849 2336906 204067 3056035 50007 3390952 171466 237459 385755 208796 2710819 1025837 1583621 784079 760091 608411 179148 276234 66392 540727
Last daily increment 13307 59310 1433 1895 506 756 8883 6484 274 0 435 0 1222 379 2020 1076 13523 4194 6585 2856 2415 0 1015 2330 156 0
Last week 81426 541591 8464 11505 5782 6069 47874 45233 2446 114045 2391 67964 7520 2057 9260 5228 74081 20077 33366 18665 14773 20349 5446 12908 1620 8854
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1507-2403-2710-2603-2704-0611-0204-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 53549 808 1470 238 271 12285 5664 316 21293 147 30360 86 106 1118 5636 1079 814 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3421 27 79 118 -1037 3593 318 19 6515 5 -1069 7 4 9 193 60 179 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-02-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-01-132021-01-032021-01-152021-01-1609-152021-01-2811-282021-01-162021-02-0608-1012-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1112-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-1212-062021-01-022021-01-132021-01-0911-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1311-162021-01-132021-01-112021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-262021-01-142021-01-1311-2012-092021-01-1212-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1311-1312-142021-01-1311-142021-01-172021-01-1212-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 55686 9215 4115 17075 92147 12198 13617 16494 6623 4292 27986 17701 720125 238109 695 3867 2817 9261 42321 4984 2716 292 792 16406 8918 174 4362 1493 12560 6415 3244 3681 3407 5714 3031 613 7920 6763 5848 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 821 6076 2333 2623 15904 17473 3943 1537 10174 4938 1362 7648 22547 2491 6091 164 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 195 31 41 29 28 151 16 77 28 7 187 53 38 65 33 70 39 38 41 59 87 33 32 69 42 31 35 93 67 99 70 89 31 89 31 33 31 78 86 91 36 88 42 66 79 30 31 85 66 32 67 35 78 65 31 92 61 31 91 27 32 69 117 43 86
Last total 28898 9809754 828408 772396 2190116 10904940 1210703 1510873 1988695 1220748 547255 4012538 1490063 2579896 27575344 56152 479856 309766 795323 3480228 412935 266433 38796 82485 1818556 929978 26729 327901 167483 1160428 647657 288475 387082 418169 523997 370136 42419 602783 472375 450596 286343 97297 818690 98551 195297 69497 742840 176565 287836 1531242 937541 412266 150034 894660 483140 110205 719416 2560393 273274 547424 13553 326599 606651 127282 53086
Last daily increment 6 44299 3797 3925 4947 12194 8844 7120 9741 8439 1955 14640 2382 7706 83321 0 1189 981 1791 8917 1209 0 126 408 7522 3703 57 471 258 2101 1232 0 764 0 1954 1159 160 889 935 640 695 234 4096 85 1237 416 3793 565 813 8755 2799 1458 458 3525 2983 137 3195 5551 732 3215 146 913 866 395 0
Last week 41 285114 19407 20510 32900 66746 52866 44438 56550 34050 9945 89077 13928 48440 567976 1133 7433 5933 14690 62246 7687 7919 761 2074 43940 21365 331 4401 2274 14177 7946 4549 9300 6771 10846 6486 1201 8141 4658 4704 4665 1507 22525 396 2982 2122 21729 2697 3794 51139 17324 8333 2912 21514 16767 976 17150 65532 4465 18299 661 7901 5869 2574 459
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-0306-06 -- -- --04-0110-0508-02 --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45271 1988 7349 2860 22833 8380 10927 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9153 729 1011 190 409 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26263 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 291 1343 1048 4599 1490 4743 1435 -708 882 74 482 3180 179 72 31 126 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-13 4027106 20872068 432303 737115 229516 292279 1082849 2336906 204067 3056035 50007 3390952 171466 237459 385755 208796 2710819 1025837 1583621 784079 760091 608411 179148 276234 66392 540727
2021-02-14 4039000 21031000 433500 740200 229500 294500 1087000 2351000 204400 3056000 50290 3426000 172400 238200 386100 209700 2722000 1032000 1588000 797100 762300 609400 180600 277500 66600 541700
2021-02-15 4051000 21112000 434500 741000 230600 295300 1089000 2354000 204800 3096000 50600 3444000 173300 238200 387300 210600 2730000 1034000 1590000 799000 763400 609400 180700 278300 66890 544800
2021-02-16 4063000 21195000 435600 742600 231700 296200 1097000 2359000 205100 3097000 50980 3460000 174800 238400 388200 211500 2739000 1037000 1594000 801800 766100 617300 181700 280000 67100 546000
2021-02-17 4075000 21305000 437000 745200 232500 297600 1106000 2369000 205400 3107000 51340 3477000 176100 239000 389400 212400 2752000 1039000 1601000 808200 768900 621000 182800 282900 67310 547400
2021-02-18 4086000 21403000 438500 747300 233300 298600 1115000 2379000 205800 3128000 51700 3493000 177300 239400 391000 213300 2765000 1043000 1607000 814700 771300 624800 184000 285100 67580 548700
2021-02-19 4098000 21492000 440000 749300 234200 299500 1123000 2387000 206100 3135000 52090 3509000 178700 239800 392800 214100 2779000 1046000 1613000 818600 773700 628300 184900 287500 67930 549800
2021-02-20 4110000 21559000 441300 751300 234700 300300 1132000 2395000 206400 3135000 52480 3525000 179700 240100 394500 215000 2791000 1050000 1619000 821700 776000 628300 185800 289600 68090 549800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-13 9809754 828408 772396 2190116 10904940 1210703 1510873 1988695 1220748 547255 4012538 1490063 2579896 27575344 56152 479856 309766 795323 3480228 412935 266433 38796 82485 1818556 929978 26729 327901 167483 1160428 647657 288475 387082 418169 523997 370136 42419 602783 472375 450596 286343 97297 818690 98551 195297 69497 742840 176565 287836 1531242 937541 412266 150034 894660 483140 110205 719416 2560393 273274 547424 13553 326599 606651 127282 53086
2021-02-14 9863000 831600 775700 2194000 10920000 1218000 1518000 1999000 1226000 548900 4027000 1495000 2588000 27663000 56290 484500 312600 798900 3492000 414500 267300 38950 82850 1829000 940800 26910 328800 167800 1164000 651300 289800 388900 422400 529900 371200 42940 604500 472900 451500 287600 97560 829400 98720 195400 69910 746600 176800 288300 1539000 938800 417000 150600 898200 488300 110300 721800 2573000 274100 550700 13660 327900 609100 127700 53180
2021-02-15 9870000 834700 778700 2197000 10927000 1221000 1525000 2009000 1232000 550500 4041000 1496000 2596000 27748000 56410 484900 313100 802300 3503000 415300 271400 39100 83210 1838000 943000 26950 329300 168200 1167000 652400 291100 390700 423100 531100 372300 43070 606400 473400 452500 288000 97820 831500 98740 195500 70310 750300 176800 288800 1547000 940300 417600 151100 901400 490000 110400 724100 2587000 274900 553900 13750 329200 609500 128200 53270
2021-02-16 9933000 837800 781000 2200000 10937000 1225000 1531000 2019000 1238000 552100 4055000 1499000 2604000 27833000 56520 486200 314300 805700 3514000 416100 272300 39250 83570 1848000 947500 26970 330100 168600 1170000 653500 291100 392500 424400 532000 373300 43290 607400 474000 453500 288600 98070 834000 98750 195800 70700 754000 176900 289200 1555000 941700 418300 151600 904800 491600 110500 726500 2600000 275700 557000 13840 330400 610300 128600 53360
2021-02-17 9987000 840900 783400 2203000 10949000 1230000 1538000 2029000 1244000 553600 4069000 1502000 2612000 27916000 56640 487700 315600 809100 3525000 416900 272900 39400 83920 1858000 950500 27020 330900 169000 1173000 654800 292900 394400 425100 534200 374300 43530 608700 474500 454400 289400 98330 839400 98840 196300 71090 757700 177200 289700 1560000 943100 419900 152100 908000 494100 110600 728800 2613000 276500 560100 13930 331500 611100 129000 53440
2021-02-18 10038000 843900 786600 2206000 10959000 1236000 1545000 2039000 1250000 555100 4082000 1506000 2620000 27999000 56750 489600 317000 812500 3536000 418500 273900 39550 84270 1867000 952900 27100 331500 169300 1177000 656600 292900 396200 427700 535900 375300 43720 610200 475000 455400 290500 98580 844000 98900 196800 71480 761300 177300 290200 1569000 944600 421800 152700 911200 497200 110900 731100 2627000 277300 563200 14020 332700 612600 129400 53530
2021-02-19 10085000 847000 790200 2210000 10970000 1242000 1552000 2049000 1256000 556700 4096000 1509000 2627000 28083000 56860 490600 317800 815800 3547000 420300 274500 39700 84620 1877000 956400 27180 332300 169600 1180000 658000 294100 398100 428500 537800 376300 43890 611400 475600 456400 291500 98830 847900 98970 197100 71870 765000 177400 290600 1576000 946000 423200 153200 914500 500900 111000 733500 2640000 278100 566400 14110 333900 613600 129800 53620
2021-02-20 10122000 850100 793800 2213000 10981000 1251000 1558000 2059000 1262000 558200 4110000 1512000 2635000 28166000 56980 491700 318900 819200 3558000 421600 274500 39850 84970 1887000 960800 27240 332800 169900 1183000 659500 294100 399900 428500 540000 377400 44090 612200 476100 457300 292200 99080 851300 99040 198100 72260 768600 177900 291100 1585000 947400 424800 153700 917700 503800 111200 735800 2654000 278900 569500 14200 335000 614700 130200 53700

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-02-13 4027106 20872068 432303 737115 229516 292279 1082849 2336906 204067 3056035 50007 3390952 171466 237459 385755 208796 2710819 1025837 1583621 784079 760091 608411 179148 276234 66392 540727
2021-02-14 4038000 20911000 433500 739000 230000 293000 1088000 2341000 204400 3064000 50340 3404000 172500 237700 387400 209800 2721000 1029000 1589000 786600 762100 609500 179800 278200 66540 541100
2021-02-15 4049000 20958000 434400 740400 230900 293700 1090000 2343000 204700 3090000 50580 3416000 173300 237900 388400 210700 2724000 1032000 1592000 788200 763600 610100 180300 279400 66780 543100
2021-02-16 4060000 21002000 435400 742100 231800 294700 1097000 2345000 205000 3103000 50870 3432000 174700 238200 389400 211700 2729000 1034000 1596000 790100 766100 614500 181200 281200 66970 544100
2021-02-17 4071000 21060000 436700 744100 232500 296200 1107000 2350000 205400 3118000 51150 3450000 175900 238600 390500 212700 2736000 1037000 1602000 792800 768600 616900 182200 283700 67150 545200
2021-02-18 4082000 21118000 437900 745900 233100 297200 1115000 2356000 205700 3141000 51410 3462000 177000 239000 391800 213700 2744000 1040000 1608000 795900 771000 619300 183300 285600 67400 546400
2021-02-19 4096000 21184000 439200 747700 233800 298500 1122000 2362000 206000 3162000 51680 3484000 178300 239500 393100 214700 2750000 1044000 1613000 798800 773300 621400 184200 287700 67650 547600
2021-02-20 4108000 21232000 440400 749700 234200 299700 1130000 2368000 206300 3173000 51950 3499000 179400 239900 394500 215700 2756000 1047000 1618000 801100 775700 621900 185200 289700 67790 548200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-02-13 9809754 828408 772396 2190116 10904940 1210703 1510873 1988695 1220748 547255 4012538 1490063 2579896 27575344 56152 479856 309766 795323 3480228 412935 266433 38796 82485 1818556 929978 26729 327901 167483 1160428 647657 288475 387082 418169 523997 370136 42419 602783 472375 450596 286343 97297 818690 98551 195297 69497 742840 176565 287836 1531242 937541 412266 150034 894660 483140 110205 719416 2560393 273274 547424 13553 326599 606651 127282 53086
2021-02-14 9870000 831200 775900 2195000 10913000 1218000 1517000 1995000 1228000 548900 4023000 1492000 2587000 27650000 56280 481400 310400 797400 3487000 414000 267000 38910 82850 1825000 933200 26790 328300 167600 1162000 649100 289000 388300 420000 525900 371200 42510 603000 473200 451300 287000 97470 824000 98620 195700 69850 746400 176900 288400 1540000 939400 414000 150400 897800 486200 110300 722400 2564000 274000 550400 13680 327300 607200 127600 53150
2021-02-15 9875000 833800 778900 2200000 10917000 1225000 1523000 2002000 1233000 550200 4031000 1493000 2595000 27723000 56430 482100 311000 799600 3493000 414700 269700 38990 83170 1831000 935900 26840 328800 167900 1164000 650200 290000 390000 421000 527000 371800 42660 604400 473900 452100 287600 97650 826100 98650 195900 70130 749400 177100 289000 1547000 941000 415100 150800 901000 488100 110300 724500 2575000 274700 553100 13790 328300 607600 128000 53230
2021-02-16 9934000 836300 781300 2206000 10922000 1233000 1528000 2011000 1239000 551400 4037000 1494000 2603000 27794000 56590 483100 312100 801700 3498000 415500 270900 39070 83490 1838000 939900 26880 329400 168300 1166000 651400 290300 391700 422200 527800 372500 42860 605200 474700 452900 288100 97910 828400 98690 196200 70420 752700 177400 289500 1555000 942900 416200 151300 904200 489900 110400 726700 2586000 275500 555700 13880 329000 608100 128300 53300
2021-02-17 9990000 838700 783600 2211000 10928000 1241000 1533000 2019000 1244000 552600 4044000 1496000 2610000 27867000 56740 484300 313200 803900 3504000 416200 271900 39150 83800 1845000 943100 26930 330100 168600 1168000 652600 291600 393400 422900 529100 373100 43040 606400 475400 453700 288700 98190 833800 98750 196600 70700 756100 177900 290100 1561000 945100 417800 151800 907400 492300 110500 728900 2597000 276200 558200 13960 329600 608600 128700 53380
2021-02-18 10041000 841100 786800 2216000 10933000 1251000 1537000 2028000 1249000 553800 4052000 1498000 2618000 27942000 56890 485900 314500 806100 3509000 417700 273300 39270 84130 1852000 946300 27010 330700 168900 1171000 654200 292100 395000 425200 530400 373900 43250 607700 476100 454600 289500 98430 839100 98820 197100 70990 759400 178200 290700 1569000 947000 419700 152300 910600 495200 110700 731400 2610000 276900 560800 14070 330500 609800 129100 53460
2021-02-19 10089000 843500 790700 2222000 10939000 1262000 1542000 2040000 1255000 555000 4059000 1500000 2625000 28020000 57050 487000 315700 808200 3514000 419200 274600 39440 84450 1860000 951000 27100 331400 169300 1174000 655700 293500 397000 426300 532100 374600 43480 609100 476800 455400 290400 98690 844500 98910 197500 71280 762700 178600 291300 1576000 948900 421700 153000 913900 499500 110800 733800 2624000 277600 563300 14180 331200 610500 129600 53550
2021-02-20 10108000 846000 794100 2227000 10945000 1273000 1546000 2049000 1260000 556100 4066000 1501000 2633000 28092000 57200 488700 317000 810400 3520000 420500 275500 39610 84780 1867000 955900 27180 331900 169600 1176000 657600 294100 398800 426900 534100 375300 43690 610100 477600 456400 291100 98950 848600 98960 197900 71570 766300 179000 292000 1584000 950700 423700 153600 917200 502600 110900 735900 2631000 278300 565800 14300 331800 611400 130000 53620

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed