COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-08


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-03-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-282021-02-2412-182021-03-0512-1612-182021-01-252021-03-0411-032021-02-0512-12 --2021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Peak daily increment 57035 210471 7110 16472 1433 3823 14403 23891 3419 37885 700 51954 1087 3554 5772 34944 11039 24662 12347 8604 8566 1746 2815 1168 8404
Days since peak 59 122 117 131 12 80 3 82 80 42 4 125 31 86 59 116 80 120 44 111 62 130 64 111 126
Last total 4223232 23175160 476980 789008 263303 335290 1325291 2513784 215264 3160970 62522 3883334 206281 246608 468713 223651 3081368 1123909 1801083 810459 830563 684961 195678 323786 75770 565034
Last daily increment 4712 67323 1910 1117 2995 1777 3960 5129 425 11958 459 5327 1161 94 2696 432 13882 3834 6169 365 2280 0 210 396 828 2744
Last week 34832 692034 14211 14664 11274 12094 73049 51723 3040 30786 3877 124087 11699 3150 33024 3021 125934 27476 81375 4812 22523 15848 4622 12784 3536 6412
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1511-1603-2710-2603-2704-0611-0204-0404-1211-14 --11-2904-1003-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 53552 808 1470 3443 271 12285 5664 316 21293 147 30360 2609 5428 1118 5636 1079 814 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 27 79 429 -1037 3593 318 19 6516 5 -1069 492 9 193 60 179 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-03-08

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-01-032021-01-222021-01-1609-152021-01-2811-282021-01-202021-02-2008-1012-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-1012-062021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-142021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-01-1412-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 9216 4180 17013 92153 12373 13617 16981 6898 4292 27982 17701 720125 238078 695 3867 2817 9261 42322 4984 2579 285 792 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12561 6415 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 578 7920 6763 5848 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 5865 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10174 4802 1362 7648 21849 2491 6324 161 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 218 64 45 51 174 39 100 47 16 210 76 61 88 57 93 62 61 64 82 110 56 57 92 65 59 58 116 90 122 93 112 57 112 57 58 54 101 109 114 59 111 65 89 102 87 54 108 89 59 90 58 101 88 55 115 84 55 114 50 53 92 140 66 109
Last total 29061 11051665 896247 860533 2278861 11244786 1386556 1698005 2130477 1371176 597763 4284408 1521706 2793632 29044110 59367 500092 321678 827237 3602380 437136 286404 41579 88368 1944809 991378 27862 339150 173308 1199440 667736 298788 411032 433864 556461 388035 45926 631486 490025 461429 297651 100914 874901 100419 201288 76011 813777 182979 296393 1699933 979725 429155 157515 952818 526716 113596 750789 2699083 283941 586592 16191 344271 621842 133627 54903
Last daily increment 15 32321 4048 4748 2205 15388 6894 8313 1877 6212 3351 10145 638 13215 50237 339 273 144 783 3130 575 2056 160 209 3313 1403 41 457 377 1185 474 600 331 498 897 716 139 2243 467 240 70 0 2725 28 44 192 2355 286 203 5443 1254 163 230 2045 851 7 437 3525 187 892 116 1200 188 182 139
Last week 65 404739 18196 28021 19262 105270 39530 49831 33283 32879 17321 64117 6891 70316 350111 830 5671 2025 8568 24414 6570 4250 812 1370 30190 12739 330 2601 1472 10118 4986 2134 4839 3016 8302 4865 983 9106 4837 2313 2356 756 11492 462 1669 1283 19029 1434 2104 43446 9142 4158 1478 14522 7893 944 6989 30992 2289 8033 827 4321 3535 1443 376
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-0306-06 -- -- --04-0110-0508-02 --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 359 45272 1988 7349 2860 22833 8380 10925 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9153 729 1011 190 409 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26264 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 291 1343 1048 4599 1490 4742 1435 -708 882 74 482 3181 179 72 31 126 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-08 4223232 23175160 476980 789008 263303 335290 1325291 2513784 215264 3160970 62522 3883334 206281 246608 468713 223651 3081368 1123909 1801083 810459 830563 684961 195678 323786 75770 565034
2021-03-09 4229000 23280000 478700 791500 263500 335300 1342000 2518000 215700 3184000 62520 3902000 206300 246700 470900 224200 3101000 1129000 1812000 812300 830600 693900 196400 325900 76480 565700
2021-03-10 4236000 23415000 481000 794600 263700 336100 1360000 2527000 216100 3209000 62860 3926000 206900 247100 474600 225300 3119000 1134000 1825000 814200 832000 698300 197500 329100 77110 566800
2021-03-11 4243000 23549000 483300 797200 265200 337100 1376000 2538000 216600 3229000 63240 3948000 207600 247600 478700 226100 3138000 1139000 1837000 815400 834200 702300 198400 331600 77710 567900
2021-03-12 4249000 23675000 485600 799700 267100 337900 1390000 2546000 217000 3249000 63630 3968000 208600 248000 482500 226800 3158000 1145000 1849000 816700 836500 706200 199200 333700 78400 569000
2021-03-13 4254000 23790000 488000 801900 267900 339100 1406000 2553000 217400 3250000 64070 3987000 209800 248500 486400 227500 3176000 1150000 1860000 817600 838800 706200 200000 336000 78840 569000
2021-03-14 4260000 23886000 490200 803800 268500 340200 1417000 2558000 217900 3256000 64370 4007000 210100 248800 489900 228100 3193000 1155000 1871000 818200 840700 706200 200300 337200 79260 569000
2021-03-15 4266000 23940000 491800 804600 271000 341900 1419000 2563000 218400 3256000 64800 4010000 211200 248900 493500 228600 3205000 1158000 1877000 818500 843000 706200 200500 337600 79940 571400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-08 11051665 896247 860533 2278861 11244786 1386556 1698005 2130477 1371176 597763 4284408 1521706 2793632 29044110 59367 500092 321678 827237 3602380 437136 286404 41579 88368 1944809 991378 27862 339150 173308 1199440 667736 298788 411032 433864 556461 388035 45926 631486 490025 461429 297651 100914 874901 100419 201288 76011 813777 182979 296393 1699933 979725 429155 157515 952818 526716 113596 750789 2699083 283941 586592 16191 344271 621842 133627 54903
2021-03-09 11066000 898800 864000 2282000 11260000 1391000 1706000 2140000 1380000 600400 4296000 1524000 2805000 29103000 59490 500400 322000 828500 3605000 438100 287600 41700 88610 1952000 996000 27890 339900 173600 1201000 668400 299300 411900 435100 557700 388800 46020 632000 490600 462100 298400 101100 878400 100600 201500 76250 816700 183400 296700 1707000 981300 429800 157800 955200 530000 113800 751700 2704000 284700 588000 16310 345000 622900 133900 54980
2021-03-10 11111000 901400 867100 2287000 11277000 1397000 1713000 2150000 1383000 602100 4306000 1526000 2815000 29185000 59640 501700 322300 830100 3609000 439100 288300 41770 88950 1959000 1000000 27910 340500 174000 1203000 669300 300500 413700 435800 559600 389700 46140 633000 491400 462700 299100 101300 882100 100700 201800 76770 819700 183800 297100 1714000 984400 430700 158400 958300 532900 113900 753500 2711000 285400 590600 16390 346000 623800 134300 55100
2021-03-11 11166000 904300 871800 2291000 11294000 1402000 1721000 2159000 1390000 604100 4317000 1528000 2825000 29255000 59790 502400 322600 831600 3612000 440300 289200 41860 89240 1965000 1003000 27960 341000 174300 1205000 670200 300800 415100 436700 561200 390600 46280 634300 492300 463300 299600 101500 885400 100800 202100 77140 822700 184100 297500 1721000 986700 431600 158800 960900 535200 114100 754800 2717000 286000 592600 16480 346800 624700 134600 55190
2021-03-12 11224000 907000 876500 2295000 11311000 1409000 1729000 2166000 1398000 606200 4327000 1530000 2836000 29319000 59930 502800 322700 832900 3615000 441800 290000 41970 89490 1971000 1006000 28030 341500 174500 1207000 671100 301700 416200 437200 562800 391400 46460 635600 493100 463700 300100 101700 887900 100900 202400 77450 825500 184400 297800 1729000 988700 432300 159200 963400 537200 114200 756000 2722000 286400 594300 16580 347600 625400 134900 55270
2021-03-13 11277000 909600 880500 2299000 11329000 1415000 1736000 2173000 1405000 608400 4337000 1531000 2846000 29382000 59930 503200 323000 834200 3618000 442700 290200 42070 89740 1976000 1009000 28110 341800 174600 1209000 672300 302000 417200 437300 564400 392100 46620 636800 493900 464300 300600 101900 890400 101000 202700 77740 828400 184700 298100 1737000 990500 433100 159500 965700 539000 114400 757000 2728000 286900 596000 16680 348300 626000 135200 55350
2021-03-14 11336000 911900 885100 2302000 11347000 1420000 1744000 2175000 1412000 610800 4346000 1532000 2857000 29441000 59930 503500 323300 835400 3621000 443500 290200 42180 89980 1979000 1010000 28150 342000 174600 1210000 672900 302100 418100 438200 565500 392900 46760 636800 494700 464400 301000 102000 890400 101000 202900 78000 831300 184800 298400 1744000 992200 433600 159800 968000 540400 114500 758000 2733000 287100 597500 16790 349000 626300 135500 55420
2021-03-15 11363000 915400 889400 2305000 11360000 1426000 1751000 2176000 1416000 613200 4356000 1533000 2868000 29500000 60220 503800 323400 836600 3624000 444200 292000 42290 90210 1982000 1012000 28190 342500 174900 1211000 673400 302800 419000 438600 566400 393700 46880 638700 495200 464700 301100 102100 893000 101000 202900 78240 834100 185000 298700 1749000 993700 433800 160100 970200 541400 114500 758900 2738000 287300 598900 16900 349700 626500 135700 55490

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-08 4223232 23175160 476980 789008 263303 335290 1325291 2513784 215264 3160970 62522 3883334 206281 246608 468713 223651 3081368 1123909 1801083 810459 830563 684961 195678 323786 75770 565034
2021-03-09 4228000 23227000 478900 791000 265200 336800 1336000 2518000 215700 3168000 62960 3903000 208000 246900 472100 224200 3098000 1128000 1812000 811100 833700 691800 196300 325400 76320 565900
2021-03-10 4232000 23300000 481200 793500 266400 338800 1351000 2523000 216200 3173000 63510 3923000 209900 247400 477000 224800 3112000 1132000 1824000 811800 836900 695100 197200 328100 76830 566700
2021-03-11 4237000 23368000 483300 795700 267900 340700 1365000 2529000 216700 3183000 64030 3942000 211600 247800 482800 225400 3128000 1135000 1836000 812400 840300 697900 198000 330400 77320 567400
2021-03-12 4241000 23429000 485500 798000 269900 342500 1377000 2533000 217200 3189000 64520 3960000 213400 248200 488200 226000 3143000 1140000 1849000 813100 843800 700800 198700 332500 77870 568100
2021-03-13 4246000 23482000 487700 800000 271000 344600 1391000 2536000 217700 3190000 65020 3977000 215100 248600 493700 226500 3156000 1144000 1861000 813700 847100 700800 199500 334700 78260 568400
2021-03-14 4251000 23523000 489700 801900 271700 346500 1400000 2539000 218200 3191000 65480 3994000 216300 248900 498700 227100 3166000 1148000 1873000 814300 850100 700900 200000 336500 78580 568600
2021-03-15 4255000 23552000 491200 803400 273000 348500 1404000 2541000 218700 3195000 65880 4003000 217600 249200 503700 227600 3173000 1151000 1883000 814700 852700 700900 200500 337900 79110 569900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-09 to 2021-03-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-08 11051665 896247 860533 2278861 11244786 1386556 1698005 2130477 1371176 597763 4284408 1521706 2793632 29044110 59367 500092 321678 827237 3602380 437136 286404 41579 88368 1944809 991378 27862 339150 173308 1199440 667736 298788 411032 433864 556461 388035 45926 631486 490025 461429 297651 100914 874901 100419 201288 76011 813777 182979 296393 1699933 979725 429155 157515 952818 526716 113596 750789 2699083 283941 586592 16191 344271 621842 133627 54903
2021-03-09 11119000 899100 864000 2282000 11257000 1392000 1705000 2137000 1377000 600300 4292000 1522000 2805000 29091000 59510 500500 321900 828200 3605000 437900 287100 41680 88600 1950000 994000 27900 339600 173600 1201000 668300 299000 411800 434400 557000 388600 46070 632800 490700 461800 297900 101000 876300 100500 201500 76270 816600 183200 296700 1706000 981000 429400 157800 955100 527400 113700 751600 2704000 284300 587700 16290 344800 622300 133800 54970
2021-03-10 11181000 901200 866900 2285000 11265000 1398000 1711000 2144000 1380000 601900 4297000 1524000 2815000 29141000 59650 501500 322200 829200 3608000 438800 287800 41730 88860 1955000 997000 27930 340100 173900 1202000 669000 299700 412900 434800 558000 389100 46190 633900 491400 462300 298400 101200 878900 100600 201800 76620 819700 183500 297000 1712000 982400 430100 158200 957500 528900 113800 752500 2708000 284800 589100 16370 345300 622800 134100 55050
2021-03-11 11248000 903500 871500 2289000 11272000 1404000 1717000 2151000 1385000 603500 4302000 1525000 2825000 29191000 59790 501900 322500 830300 3610000 439900 288500 41820 89110 1960000 1000000 27980 340500 174200 1204000 669700 299900 413800 435200 558900 389600 46320 635100 492100 462700 298800 101400 881600 100700 202000 76920 822600 183700 297300 1719000 983400 430700 158500 959900 530600 114000 753500 2712000 285200 590300 16500 345700 623300 134400 55130
2021-03-12 11312000 905700 876400 2292000 11281000 1411000 1722000 2157000 1392000 605200 4307000 1526000 2835000 29240000 59920 502300 322800 831300 3612000 441200 289200 41900 89340 1966000 1002000 28050 340900 174400 1205000 670400 300500 414800 435500 559900 390100 46470 636400 492800 463100 299200 101500 883900 100800 202300 77190 825700 184000 297700 1726000 984400 431300 158800 962200 532200 114100 754500 2716000 285600 591400 16600 346100 623700 134600 55200
2021-03-13 11370000 907900 880600 2295000 11289000 1417000 1727000 2163000 1399000 607000 4312000 1527000 2845000 29287000 60000 502500 323000 832400 3615000 442100 289700 41990 89580 1970000 1005000 28110 341200 174600 1207000 671300 300800 415600 435700 560800 390500 46600 637300 493500 463500 299700 101600 886400 100800 202500 77450 828700 184200 298000 1733000 985300 432000 159100 964400 533900 114200 755400 2719000 286100 592500 16710 346400 624100 134800 55260
2021-03-14 11416000 910100 884100 2298000 11297000 1422000 1732000 2167000 1404000 608800 4317000 1529000 2855000 29329000 60080 502800 323500 833500 3617000 442800 290000 42070 89810 1975000 1008000 28160 341500 174800 1208000 672000 301100 416500 436300 561700 390900 46710 637500 494200 463800 300200 101700 887100 100900 202800 77690 831500 184400 298300 1740000 986100 432500 159400 966500 535800 114300 756400 2721000 286400 593600 16820 346800 624400 135100 55320
2021-03-15 11441000 912400 888600 2302000 11302000 1428000 1737000 2170000 1408000 610500 4323000 1529000 2866000 29373000 60260 503000 323700 834600 3619000 443700 291500 42140 90040 1980000 1010000 28190 341900 175000 1209000 672600 301700 417400 436600 562400 391400 46810 638900 494900 464200 300600 101800 889800 100900 202900 77940 834400 184500 298600 1746000 987000 433000 159700 968800 536900 114300 757300 2725000 286700 594600 16930 347100 624700 135300 55390

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed