COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-18


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-03-18

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-28 --12-182021-03-1312-162021-03-102021-01-25 --11-032021-03-0412-122021-03-142021-01-0811-1212-18 --2021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Peak daily increment 57040 210471 7110 16472 3823 12345 23892 1678 37889 51954 1973 3554 7607 5772 34945 11039 12347 8604 8566 1746 2815 1168 8404
Days since peak 69 132 127 141 90 5 92 8 52 135 14 96 4 69 126 90 54 121 72 140 74 121 136
Last total 4280882 24588022 504581 822801 295777 357174 1439019 2639258 223415 3212332 69497 4152604 230317 254507 539080 228796 3306711 1179612 1984248 816055 881159 738537 203544 344470 84553 578861
Last daily increment 6303 222382 3357 4659 4008 2546 12028 28489 786 6216 804 72592 3070 1197 6502 581 24901 6125 27274 485 6174 6467 971 2040 1034 1750
Last week 32596 839162 16539 21078 19918 13029 62021 79962 4110 28628 4182 164410 13299 4846 40897 2976 130904 34790 115951 2903 30797 26010 4540 10598 5607 8216
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1511-1603-2710-2603-2712-1811-0204-0404-1211-14 --11-2904-1003-2403-3111-0804-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 53552 808 1470 3443 271 12285 5664 3419 21295 147 30360 2609 5428 1118 5636 1079 24662 814 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 27 79 -1037 3593 318 362 6516 -1069 492 1056 9 193 60 179 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-03-18

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-01-032021-01-222021-01-1609-152021-01-2811-282021-01-202021-02-14 --12-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-1012-062021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-0612-052021-02-192021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-132021-03-1111-192021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-142021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-01-1412-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 9216 4180 17013 92145 12374 13616 16981 7027 27988 17701 720125 238972 695 3867 2817 9261 42316 4984 2579 285 792 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12561 6415 668 3605 3407 5454 3015 578 2025 6763 57264 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 5865 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10174 4802 1362 7648 21849 2491 6324 161 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 228 74 55 61 184 49 110 57 32 86 71 98 67 103 72 71 74 92 120 66 67 102 75 69 68 126 100 132 103 27 67 122 67 68 64 7 119 7 69 121 75 99 112 97 64 118 99 69 100 68 111 98 65 125 94 65 124 60 63 102 150 76 119
Last total 29183 11780820 928283 911469 2319293 11514331 1443853 1778645 2182188 1435598 640984 4378656 1533961 2950603 29667305 60758 510048 324849 834606 3634807 446525 294443 42892 91226 1990618 1007441 28509 343855 176802 1215987 675388 301085 419129 439124 570737 396746 47831 655974 500980 531459 301924 102616 891241 101403 203760 78599 852140 185061 300415 1767122 995785 432781 160622 979638 537498 115203 762817 2745694 287644 600550 17239 351430 627743 136716 55479
Last daily increment 17 86982 3613 7257 5139 39726 6570 7530 6726 0 5286 9713 1464 20049 59822 155 572 289 285 3487 1240 1150 81 302 5110 2213 86 592 341 2327 958 22 777 540 1859 1113 244 2949 1496 651 322 132 1932 119 325 325 4461 242 297 5514 2104 0 334 3196 1398 237 614 3420 403 2082 141 900 683 382 30
Last week 71 417440 19429 31984 24676 180603 33719 47087 24417 41027 29366 57068 7088 99673 319967 809 7337 1575 2774 16030 5067 4872 610 1514 26260 8993 353 2513 1859 9904 4365 1090 4046 3063 8645 5266 1181 15054 6252 3488 2037 1060 9418 556 1367 1560 22528 1157 1792 42861 9045 1432 1585 15491 6618 856 6614 24183 2058 8336 624 4377 3235 1874 316
Previous peak date03-2807-2905-0306-06 -- -- --04-0110-0508-0208-1305-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --11-16 --07-1904-1705-0605-2211-27 --11-1407-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 48662 1988 7349 2860 22833 8380 4289 10928 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 409 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 3244 2155 2171 1017 48 7920 5848 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26264 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 291 1343 1048 4599 1490 4743 1435 -708 882 74 482 3180 179 72 31 126 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 328 377 -21 361 15 865 253 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-19 to 2021-03-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-18 4280882 24588022 504581 822801 295777 357174 1439019 2639258 223415 3212332 69497 4152604 230317 254507 539080 228796 3306711 1179612 1984248 816055 881159 738537 203544 344470 84553 578861
2021-03-19 4287000 24634000 507300 826100 301800 358900 1454000 2655000 224100 3229000 69980 4182000 231600 254500 545000 229500 3333000 1185000 2005000 817600 886200 746400 204200 345900 85280 579500
2021-03-20 4294000 24719000 510100 829900 305600 360700 1470000 2670000 224700 3229000 70520 4217000 233400 254800 546600 230200 3358000 1191000 2028000 818800 891200 747500 205100 347700 86030 579500
2021-03-21 4301000 24800000 512700 833500 308400 362100 1477000 2685000 225300 3233000 71190 4253000 234600 255100 550100 230900 3379000 1197000 2052000 819600 895700 748700 205500 348300 86680 579500
2021-03-22 4307000 24855000 514400 836200 313800 363800 1480000 2697000 225900 3245000 71570 4266000 235500 255100 554500 231500 3394000 1201000 2070000 819900 899100 749800 205700 348300 87440 581500
2021-03-23 4313000 24967000 517200 840000 318600 365700 1491000 2718000 226500 3251000 72010 4308000 237200 255600 559200 232100 3416000 1206000 2097000 820500 903200 762300 206500 349600 88210 582800
2021-03-24 4319000 25100000 520600 845000 323800 368100 1505000 2735000 227200 3264000 72800 4344000 240400 256800 564400 232700 3440000 1211000 2124000 821200 908500 769400 207500 352000 89130 584500
2021-03-25 4325000 25281000 523300 848500 326400 370400 1516000 2752000 227800 3264000 73520 4385000 243100 257800 569800 233300 3462000 1217000 2144000 821700 913600 774200 208400 353900 90090 585900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-19 to 2021-03-25

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-18 11780820 928283 911469 2319293 11514331 1443853 1778645 2182188 1435598 640984 4378656 1533961 2950603 29667305 60758 510048 324849 834606 3634807 446525 294443 42892 91226 1990618 1007441 28509 343855 176802 1215987 675388 301085 419129 439124 570737 396746 47831 655974 500980 531459 301924 102616 891241 101403 203760 78599 852140 185061 300415 1767122 995785 432781 160622 979638 537498 115203 762817 2745694 287644 600550 17239 351430 627743 136716 55479
2021-03-19 11880000 931100 913000 2323000 11537000 1451000 1786000 2192000 1440000 645600 4387000 1535000 2965000 29729000 60920 510300 325200 835400 3640000 448300 295400 42990 91480 1995000 1012000 28540 344500 177100 1218000 676300 301700 419900 439900 571800 397600 47940 658600 501900 534500 302800 102700 894100 101500 204100 78830 855700 185400 300800 1774000 997000 434300 160900 982100 539300 115400 763600 2756000 287900 601900 17350 352000 628500 137000 55540
2021-03-20 11950000 933400 916400 2325000 11561000 1456000 1795000 2200000 1447000 650000 4396000 1537000 2975000 29804000 60920 510700 325500 837700 3649000 449600 295400 43100 91700 2001000 1016000 28580 344900 177200 1219000 677200 301900 421000 440100 573100 398100 48090 660600 502300 537600 303500 102800 896000 101500 204500 79010 857800 185700 301200 1783000 999000 435400 161200 984000 541400 115500 764500 2763000 288200 603500 17470 352700 629200 137200 55620
2021-03-21 12001000 936100 920500 2328000 11588000 1461000 1803000 2203000 1451000 654400 4405000 1538000 2987000 29872000 60920 511000 325600 839300 3656000 450700 295400 43200 91930 2006000 1019000 28610 345100 177200 1221000 677900 301900 422000 441200 574400 398800 48220 660900 502800 540300 303800 103000 896100 101500 204700 79210 860500 185800 301600 1790000 1001000 436100 161500 986200 542700 115700 765300 2767000 288400 604900 17580 353400 629600 137400 55690
2021-03-22 12048000 938800 924800 2331000 11610000 1467000 1810000 2205000 1455000 658800 4414000 1538000 2999000 29934000 61280 511400 325600 840600 3662000 451300 297600 43300 92160 2011000 1021000 28630 345500 177600 1221000 678300 302400 422800 441500 575200 399500 48350 663900 503500 542900 303900 103100 899300 101600 204700 79420 863400 186000 302000 1796000 1002000 436400 161800 988400 543300 115700 766100 2772000 288700 606300 17690 354100 629900 137600 55750
2021-03-23 12120000 941500 929000 2334000 11636000 1472000 1818000 2209000 1462000 663200 4423000 1539000 3012000 29995000 61360 511900 325900 841700 3667000 451900 298400 43400 92390 2016000 1024000 28660 346100 177900 1223000 678800 302400 423600 442500 576100 400200 48500 665000 504300 545500 304200 103200 900500 101700 205000 79630 866400 186200 302300 1802000 1004000 436600 162100 990700 544200 115800 767000 2778000 288900 607600 17800 354800 630500 137800 55810
2021-03-24 12210000 944400 932500 2338000 11664000 1478000 1825000 2215000 1471000 667700 4431000 1541000 3025000 30054000 61520 512700 326100 842600 3672000 452600 298800 43490 92620 2020000 1027000 28710 346500 178400 1225000 679600 303000 424400 442900 577600 400900 48690 667600 505100 548100 304600 103300 902200 101800 205200 79840 869500 186400 302700 1808000 1005000 436700 162400 993000 545400 116000 767800 2783000 289200 608900 17900 355400 631200 138100 55870
2021-03-25 12286000 947200 938100 2341000 11697000 1484000 1833000 2221000 1474000 672200 4439000 1542000 3038000 30112000 61690 513400 326500 843500 3677000 453600 299800 43590 92860 2024000 1029000 28780 347100 178700 1227000 680500 303000 425100 443400 579200 401700 48880 670200 505900 550600 305000 103500 904000 101900 205500 80060 872800 186700 303000 1814000 1006000 437000 162600 995300 546600 116200 768600 2787000 289400 610300 18000 356100 631800 138400 55920

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-19 to 2021-03-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-18 4280882 24588022 504581 822801 295777 357174 1439019 2639258 223415 3212332 69497 4152604 230317 254507 539080 228796 3306711 1179612 1984248 816055 881159 738537 203544 344470 84553 578861
2021-03-19 4285000 24719000 507600 826500 299800 359200 1450000 2653000 224100 3219000 70160 4181000 232900 255400 546000 229300 3330000 1185000 2004000 816600 887000 744000 204300 346300 85560 580100
2021-03-20 4289000 24782000 510100 828800 301900 361200 1464000 2659000 224700 3223000 70690 4201000 234900 255900 553000 229700 3349000 1191000 2021000 817100 891300 744900 205100 348400 86330 580500
2021-03-21 4292000 24832000 512400 831000 303400 362700 1471000 2663000 225300 3226000 71260 4221000 236600 256400 559800 230100 3363000 1196000 2037000 817500 895600 745800 205600 349800 86980 580900
2021-03-22 4296000 24866000 514000 833000 306900 364400 1474000 2667000 226000 3232000 71640 4227000 237900 256800 565600 230600 3370000 1200000 2049000 817700 899300 746700 206000 350800 87780 582300
2021-03-23 4300000 24916000 516200 835400 309800 366400 1484000 2674000 226600 3234000 72030 4247000 239800 257300 570300 231000 3383000 1204000 2064000 818200 903700 753000 206600 352600 88530 583300
2021-03-24 4304000 24972000 518600 838000 312500 368600 1500000 2679000 227200 3240000 72570 4265000 242400 258000 575700 231400 3395000 1209000 2084000 818700 907600 756500 207400 355100 89330 584200
2021-03-25 4308000 25038000 521000 840100 314900 371000 1513000 2684000 227800 3244000 73090 4285000 244800 258600 582900 231900 3410000 1214000 2101000 819200 912400 759400 208100 357100 90170 585100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-19 to 2021-03-25

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-18 11780820 928283 911469 2319293 11514331 1443853 1778645 2182188 1435598 640984 4378656 1533961 2950603 29667305 60758 510048 324849 834606 3634807 446525 294443 42892 91226 1990618 1007441 28509 343855 176802 1215987 675388 301085 419129 439124 570737 396746 47831 655974 500980 531459 301924 102616 891241 101403 203760 78599 852140 185061 300415 1767122 995785 432781 160622 979638 537498 115203 762817 2745694 287644 600550 17239 351430 627743 136716 55479
2021-03-19 11868000 931000 917000 2323000 11539000 1450000 1786000 2188000 1443000 645500 4386000 1535000 2967000 29716000 60880 510300 325100 835300 3637000 447600 295400 42990 91480 1995000 1009000 28590 344300 177100 1218000 676200 301500 419900 439500 572100 397500 48030 658800 502100 533600 302400 102700 893100 101500 204000 78850 856000 185300 300800 1773000 997000 433100 160900 982300 538800 115400 764000 2750000 288000 602000 17350 352000 628300 137000 55530
2021-03-20 11936000 933100 921800 2326000 11552000 1455000 1792000 2193000 1450000 649200 4390000 1536000 2981000 29757000 60940 510800 325400 836300 3640000 448700 295800 43100 91710 2000000 1011000 28660 344600 177300 1219000 677100 301800 420700 439600 572900 398100 48170 660600 502800 536800 303000 102800 894400 101600 204300 79050 859000 185500 301200 1780000 998000 433700 161200 984500 540300 115400 765100 2754000 288300 602900 17460 352400 628700 137200 55580
2021-03-21 11983000 935200 926500 2329000 11565000 1459000 1797000 2196000 1455000 653000 4394000 1537000 2994000 29792000 60990 511200 325500 837300 3642000 449500 296200 43170 91930 2005000 1012000 28710 344800 177500 1220000 677800 302000 421400 440200 573700 398500 48300 661300 503600 539500 303300 102900 894500 101600 204500 79260 862000 185600 301600 1787000 999000 434200 161400 986700 541300 115500 766200 2757000 288600 603800 17590 352700 628900 137500 55630
2021-03-22 12014000 937700 931200 2333000 11576000 1464000 1802000 2199000 1459000 656700 4399000 1538000 3008000 29829000 61230 512100 325600 838100 3644000 450000 297700 43260 92160 2009000 1013000 28750 345200 177800 1221000 678300 302400 422000 440300 574200 399000 48430 663900 504400 541900 303400 103000 897200 101600 204700 79470 865100 185700 301900 1793000 1000000 434500 161700 988900 541900 115500 767500 2760000 288800 604700 17690 353000 629000 137700 55690
2021-03-23 12079000 940000 935200 2336000 11589000 1469000 1808000 2204000 1465000 660400 4403000 1539000 3022000 29875000 61320 512600 325800 838900 3645000 450500 298400 43370 92380 2014000 1015000 28800 345600 178100 1223000 678900 302600 422800 440900 574800 399400 48560 665400 505300 544200 303800 103200 898200 101700 205000 79680 868400 185900 302200 1799000 1000000 434800 161900 991200 542600 115600 768600 2763000 289100 605600 17790 353400 629400 137900 55730
2021-03-24 12160000 942200 938400 2339000 11602000 1475000 1813000 2209000 1470000 664100 4407000 1540000 3036000 29918000 61450 513100 326100 839600 3647000 451400 299000 43440 92600 2018000 1017000 28850 346000 178400 1224000 679700 303000 423500 441200 575700 399900 48690 667400 506100 546700 304100 103300 900100 101800 205200 79900 871800 186100 302600 1805000 1001000 435300 162200 993600 543700 115700 769700 2766000 289500 606500 17890 353700 629900 138100 55770
2021-03-25 12230000 944600 943400 2343000 11615000 1480000 1817000 2214000 1473000 667800 4411000 1541000 3050000 29961000 61600 513600 326400 840500 3648000 452300 299800 43530 92830 2023000 1018000 28900 346400 178700 1225000 680500 303200 424200 441500 576500 400400 48830 669400 507000 549200 304600 103400 902000 101900 205500 80110 875200 186300 303000 1812000 1002000 435800 162400 995900 544600 115900 770900 2769000 289800 607300 18010 354000 630300 138400 55820

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed