COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-26


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-03-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-28 --12-182021-03-0312-162021-03-102021-01-252021-03-2211-0311-142021-03-19 --2021-01-0811-1212-18 --2021-01-232021-03-172021-01-0510-292021-01-03 --11-02
Peak daily increment 57041 210467 7110 16472 3823 11903 23892 1486 37889 694 51953 2609 886 5772 34947 11039 12347 5357 8566 1746 2815 8404
Days since peak 77 140 135 149 98 23 100 16 60 4 143 132 7 77 134 98 62 9 80 148 82 144
Last total 4325315 25892546 530288 860731 325233 374728 1503307 2765297 226633 3255324 74754 4434884 249458 264111 614612 233327 3488619 1236209 2189966 819698 926310 780018 210785 355454 92007 592217
Last daily increment 6187 192153 3895 6123 4129 2282 7946 20689 -1261 7586 512 41629 1466 1802 11265 569 24076 7562 35145 488 6516 6328 1032 1272 1072 2053
Last week 34044 983758 18848 32790 22753 13095 43901 96064 1785 42992 3631 211949 13847 7306 53641 3496 132288 41629 153266 2618 33462 35746 5276 7510 5645 11608
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1511-1103-2710-2603-2712-1811-0204-0404-1204-2112-1212-0304-1003-2403-3111-1004-1011-1706-19 -- --11-1703-27
Previous peak daily increment 4731 53551 808 1470 3582 271 12285 5664 3419 21295 147 30360 86 3554 5681 1118 5636 1079 25604 814 8604 1077 1168 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 27 79 -1037 3593 318 362 6516 5 -1069 7 285 9 193 60 179 2312 129 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-03-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-01-032021-01-222021-01-1609-152021-01-2811-282021-01-20 -- --12-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-052021-03-152021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-192021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-01-0912-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-142021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-01-1412-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 9216 4180 17013 92145 12373 13616 16981 27990 17701 720126 238969 695 3460 2817 9262 42318 4984 2579 285 500 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12561 6415 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 578 7920 6763 58277 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 5865 2333 2623 15790 17473 3943 1537 10174 4802 1362 7648 21849 2491 6324 161 3223 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 236 82 63 69 192 57 118 65 94 79 106 75 111 11 79 82 100 128 74 75 15 83 77 76 134 108 140 111 130 75 130 75 76 72 119 127 15 77 129 83 107 120 105 72 126 107 76 108 76 119 106 73 133 102 73 132 68 71 110 158 84 127
Last total 29252 12404414 961567 962321 2367337 11908910 1487541 1838803 2219845 1512384 702856 4451565 1543079 3149094 30159998 61895 513580 326739 838558 3659987 456245 304137 43825 93122 2029646 1020388 29322 348054 179204 1232796 682099 302988 424044 442653 585176 405343 49442 690654 511621 536663 304210 103980 905509 102382 205859 81257 886260 186616 302616 1832972 1008913 435444 163294 1007892 546670 116833 772988 2776370 290128 612062 18489 358120 632945 139750 56046
Last daily increment 13 84245 5025 7478 7395 62258 4982 7980 5303 11919 9808 9073 1516 29081 80716 185 442 177 573 6819 1409 1684 156 285 5742 1824 202 558 317 2994 1101 439 641 447 2296 1361 253 6013 1706 860 268 150 2135 184 393 342 5622 225 445 8060 2742 0 490 4983 1416 209 1222 6919 342 1799 283 1015 822 499 126
Last week 56 453955 25635 37232 36150 309780 31753 44998 26206 60739 46800 53749 6278 156400 374063 1071 2493 1390 2793 19463 6472 8489 650 1381 28798 9678 559 3416 1784 12475 4964 1469 3552 3339 10651 6327 1150 27074 7832 3988 1533 1014 10247 780 1414 2015 24866 1155 1665 54088 10094 2663 1974 21180 6280 1110 8304 24091 1801 8317 942 4830 3976 2272 465
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-0306-06 -- -- --04-0110-0508-2308-1405-0907-1604-14 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 --11-1407-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45271 1988 7349 2860 22833 8419 4817 10928 12481 4816 3867 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 5848 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26264 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 291 1343 1048 4599 4743 1435 -708 642 74 482 3180 179 72 31 244 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 -240 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-27 to 2021-04-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-26 4325315 25892546 530288 860731 325233 374728 1503307 2765297 226633 3255324 74754 4434884 249458 264111 614612 233327 3488619 1236209 2189966 819698 926310 780018 210785 355454 92007 592217
2021-03-27 4331000 25949000 533700 860700 330600 376500 1523000 2766000 226600 3262000 75640 4475000 251900 265600 624300 233800 3511000 1240000 2226000 820700 932700 780000 211300 356400 92810 593700
2021-03-28 4336000 26016000 536500 861800 330600 378000 1536000 2766000 227500 3263000 76220 4509000 253000 266800 633700 234200 3530000 1245000 2253000 821400 937300 780000 211600 356500 93320 594300
2021-03-29 4341000 26089000 538800 861800 334100 379700 1537000 2766000 228100 3279000 76610 4528000 254300 267600 642600 234600 3549000 1249000 2271000 821700 941000 780000 211800 356500 94270 598300
2021-03-30 4346000 26200000 542200 861800 338400 381600 1547000 2780000 228400 3279000 77170 4560000 257100 268900 651200 235100 3566000 1253000 2290000 822200 946700 787100 212600 356500 95260 600300
2021-03-31 4352000 26359000 544900 862100 341700 384000 1559000 2795000 228700 3279000 77940 4603000 260000 270700 659600 235600 3586000 1259000 2323000 822700 952000 791300 213700 358000 96150 602300
2021-04-01 4357000 26552000 548200 864200 344600 386400 1568000 2814000 228900 3290000 78670 4637000 262500 272700 668000 236000 3609000 1265000 2358000 823100 958100 796400 214700 358600 97010 604700
2021-04-02 4362000 26717000 551700 869900 347500 388500 1576000 2831000 229100 3295000 79220 4670000 264200 274000 676400 236500 3633000 1271000 2388000 823600 964100 802500 215600 359900 97950 606100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-27 to 2021-04-02

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-26 12404414 961567 962321 2367337 11908910 1487541 1838803 2219845 1512384 702856 4451565 1543079 3149094 30159998 61895 513580 326739 838558 3659987 456245 304137 43825 93122 2029646 1020388 29322 348054 179204 1232796 682099 302988 424044 442653 585176 405343 49442 690654 511621 536663 304210 103980 905509 102382 205859 81257 886260 186616 302616 1832972 1008913 435444 163294 1007892 546670 116833 772988 2776370 290128 612062 18489 358120 632945 139750 56046
2021-03-27 12467000 965700 965000 2373000 11957000 1494000 1846000 2227000 1512000 716100 4461000 1545000 3173000 30217000 61900 515800 327300 839100 3663000 457200 304100 43900 93360 2034000 1022000 29320 348200 179500 1233000 682700 303200 424700 442700 585700 406500 49610 694900 512800 537600 305000 104100 907100 102400 206200 81580 890200 186900 302900 1839000 1010000 435400 163600 1012000 548000 116900 774200 2782000 290500 613400 18630 358800 633200 140100 56100
2021-03-28 12504000 969000 968900 2379000 12007000 1499000 1853000 2230000 1518000 723200 4470000 1546000 3194000 30251000 61900 516900 327600 840900 3666000 457900 304100 43980 93560 2038000 1024000 29340 348200 179500 1234000 683300 303200 425700 443100 586700 407300 49730 696800 512900 538300 305400 104200 907100 102400 206300 81820 892000 187000 303100 1844000 1011000 435500 163700 1015000 549200 117000 774900 2785000 290800 614400 18650 359100 633500 140100 56120
2021-03-29 12540000 972700 973400 2384000 12052000 1505000 1859000 2232000 1518000 730000 4479000 1546000 3216000 30294000 62250 517900 327800 842100 3669000 458300 306100 44060 93770 2042000 1025000 29390 348600 179900 1235000 683700 303700 426500 444000 587500 408300 49880 702400 513500 539100 305500 104300 909800 102400 206500 82090 894700 187200 303400 1847000 1013000 435500 163900 1019000 549800 117100 775800 2789000 291200 615500 18720 359700 633800 140300 56170
2021-03-30 12613000 976400 977900 2390000 12098000 1510000 1866000 2237000 1521000 735700 4487000 1547000 3238000 30341000 62390 518500 328200 843000 3672000 459200 306700 44130 93980 2046000 1027000 29410 349200 180200 1237000 684200 303700 427200 444700 588500 409200 50010 705400 514300 539900 305800 104500 910700 102500 206700 82370 897800 187400 303600 1851000 1014000 435500 164200 1022000 550400 117200 776800 2793000 291500 616700 18810 360300 634000 140500 56220
2021-03-31 12691000 980100 981300 2395000 12146000 1516000 1873000 2243000 1521000 738400 4495000 1548000 3260000 30390000 62570 519600 328600 843800 3675000 460200 307500 44210 94200 2050000 1029000 29450 349700 180600 1239000 685100 304300 427800 445200 590000 410200 50180 709800 515200 540600 306200 104600 912600 102600 206900 82640 901000 187600 303900 1857000 1015000 436000 164400 1026000 551400 117400 777800 2798000 291800 617900 18910 360900 635200 140800 56270
2021-04-01 12783000 983900 987700 2401000 12201000 1521000 1879000 2248000 1526000 742100 4504000 1549000 3282000 30441000 62720 520400 328900 844400 3678000 461400 308800 44290 94410 2054000 1031000 29550 350500 180900 1241000 686000 304300 428500 445600 592000 411200 50390 714300 516100 541400 306500 104700 914600 102800 207200 82930 904500 187800 304100 1862000 1017000 436000 164700 1030000 552600 117700 778900 2801000 292100 619200 19020 361600 635900 141000 56330
2021-04-02 12862000 987800 993800 2406000 12253000 1526000 1886000 2253000 1529000 747400 4512000 1551000 3304000 30493000 62850 520700 329100 844900 3681000 462800 310200 44360 94630 2059000 1033000 29730 351000 181200 1243000 686900 304700 429100 446000 594000 412200 50620 719900 517200 542200 306800 104900 916500 102900 207500 83220 908000 188000 304400 1868000 1018000 436100 165000 1034000 553900 117900 780000 2807000 292400 620500 19140 362300 636600 141300 56380

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-27 to 2021-04-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-03-26 4325315 25892546 530288 860731 325233 374728 1503307 2765297 226633 3255324 74754 4434884 249458 264111 614612 233327 3488619 1236209 2189966 819698 926310 780018 210785 355454 92007 592217
2021-03-27 4330000 26028000 533900 864000 327800 376700 1513000 2779000 226600 3263000 75390 4476000 251700 265600 625900 233800 3509000 1243000 2221000 820200 932700 782800 211700 356700 92890 593500
2021-03-28 4334000 26090000 536200 867200 328400 378300 1521000 2782000 227300 3268000 75890 4503000 253300 266500 635600 234300 3523000 1249000 2242000 820500 937400 783900 212200 357700 93500 594100
2021-03-29 4338000 26145000 538200 869600 332600 380100 1522000 2786000 227900 3279000 76270 4521000 254900 267200 643900 234800 3537000 1255000 2260000 820700 941700 784900 212600 358400 94480 596100
2021-03-30 4342000 26215000 541200 872000 337000 382000 1528000 2796000 228400 3284000 76740 4546000 257700 268200 650800 235300 3548000 1260000 2280000 821100 947400 791500 213300 359400 95450 597300
2021-03-31 4346000 26294000 543700 874800 340600 384400 1540000 2804000 228900 3290000 77340 4578000 260300 269300 657000 235700 3560000 1266000 2305000 821400 953000 795100 214200 361200 96360 598400
2021-04-01 4350000 26375000 546400 879200 344100 386800 1550000 2811000 229400 3296000 77870 4605000 262800 270400 664000 236200 3575000 1272000 2331000 821700 958200 798200 214900 362700 97210 599500
2021-04-02 4355000 26445000 549300 883700 348500 389000 1560000 2817000 229800 3303000 78410 4634000 265100 271300 673400 236700 3591000 1278000 2356000 822000 963800 802300 215600 364200 98080 600500

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-27 to 2021-04-02

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-03-26 12404414 961567 962321 2367337 11908910 1487541 1838803 2219845 1512384 702856 4451565 1543079 3149094 30159998 61895 513580 326739 838558 3659987 456245 304137 43825 93122 2029646 1020388 29322 348054 179204 1232796 682099 302988 424044 442653 585176 405343 49442 690654 511621 536663 304210 103980 905509 102382 205859 81257 886260 186616 302616 1832972 1008913 435444 163294 1007892 546670 116833 772988 2776370 290128 612062 18489 358120 632945 139750 56046
2021-03-27 12483000 965400 969000 2373000 11952000 1493000 1845000 2225000 1520000 712200 4458000 1544000 3174000 30215000 61990 514000 327000 839100 3663000 457500 305100 43940 93360 2035000 1022000 29430 348500 179500 1235000 683000 303100 424700 442800 586700 406400 49640 695100 512900 537600 304600 104100 907300 102500 206200 81600 890500 186800 302900 1842000 1010000 435900 163700 1012000 548100 117000 774000 2780000 290500 613400 18670 358800 633500 140100 56100
2021-03-28 12529000 967900 974300 2378000 11977000 1497000 1851000 2228000 1528000 718800 4463000 1545000 3193000 30241000 62060 514300 327200 839700 3665000 458200 305500 44000 93580 2038000 1023000 29480 348600 179600 1236000 683700 303300 425300 443000 587500 407000 49780 696600 513800 538600 304800 104200 907300 102500 206400 81860 893600 186900 303200 1849000 1011000 436400 163900 1014000 549100 117100 774900 2782000 290800 614400 18780 359100 633700 140400 56140
2021-03-29 12569000 970600 979700 2383000 11999000 1502000 1856000 2230000 1533000 725400 4467000 1546000 3214000 30276000 62300 514700 327300 840100 3667000 458500 307000 44070 93790 2042000 1024000 29540 349000 179900 1237000 684200 303600 425800 443500 588100 407600 49920 700900 514700 539600 304900 104300 909600 102600 206500 82140 896900 187000 303400 1855000 1012000 436800 164100 1016000 549700 117100 776100 2785000 291000 615400 18870 359400 633900 140600 56190
2021-03-30 12647000 973300 984400 2388000 12023000 1507000 1861000 2234000 1540000 731900 4471000 1547000 3235000 30315000 62430 514800 327400 840500 3668000 459400 307700 44150 94010 2046000 1026000 29580 349500 180200 1238000 684800 303800 426400 443900 588800 408100 50050 703900 515800 540500 305200 104500 910600 102700 206700 82420 900500 187200 303600 1862000 1012000 437100 164400 1019000 550400 117200 777200 2787000 291300 616300 18970 359700 634100 140900 56240
2021-03-31 12728000 976100 988000 2393000 12050000 1513000 1865000 2239000 1545000 738000 4475000 1548000 3256000 30359000 62590 515200 327600 840900 3670000 460200 308500 44210 94230 2051000 1027000 29630 349900 180600 1240000 685600 304200 427100 444100 589700 408700 50200 707700 516800 541400 305500 104600 912300 102800 206900 82710 904100 187300 303900 1871000 1013000 437700 164600 1022000 551300 117300 778300 2790000 291600 617300 19060 360000 634700 141200 56280
2021-04-01 12812000 978900 993900 2398000 12076000 1518000 1869000 2243000 1552000 744400 4479000 1549000 3277000 30404000 62740 515600 327800 841200 3671000 461000 309400 44260 94440 2055000 1029000 29710 350300 180900 1242000 686400 304400 427700 444400 590700 409300 50360 711700 517900 542300 305900 104700 914000 102900 207200 83000 908000 187500 304100 1879000 1014000 438100 164900 1025000 552400 117400 779400 2792000 292000 618200 19180 360400 635200 141500 56330
2021-04-02 12897000 981700 999700 2403000 12100000 1524000 1874000 2248000 1559000 751000 4483000 1550000 3299000 30443000 62850 515800 328000 841500 3673000 462100 310400 44330 94660 2059000 1031000 29820 350700 181200 1244000 687200 304700 428300 444600 591700 409900 50540 716000 518900 543100 306300 104900 915700 103000 207400 83290 911700 187700 304400 1887000 1014000 438400 165200 1028000 553600 117500 780600 2796000 292200 619100 19300 360700 635500 141800 56380

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed