COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-05-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-152021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-132021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-212021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-12
Peak daily increment 57046 210473 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20338 1362 37890 701 43585 3044 2271 8671 5772 34944 7777 27942 12347 5701 6319 1746 2815 921 2235
Days since peak 125 188 49 53 52 146 72 28 64 108 56 32 30 30 52 125 182 22 48 110 49 30 196 130 58 31
Last total 4444631 31640470 634893 1026473 413320 457447 1649947 3578125 263514 3598452 89532 5789589 371712 348158 795200 254450 4139160 1583767 2845762 840929 1069770 1027934 248046 386868 118315 677210
Last daily increment 2656 73339 933 2890 506 1507 1280 13631 1355 5701 262 19461 2158 1064 1416 437 8082 6013 3423 436 953 0 597 328 320 0
Last week 13588 403242 6076 15486 3825 9381 7251 60363 6009 31044 1200 90883 13596 5671 6012 2546 46413 37697 21337 2077 5821 20142 2887 1846 2497 6597
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21295 147 51953 2609 3554 5428 1117 5636 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5007 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-05-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-122021-04-10 --2021-05-072021-01-282021-04-162021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-142021-01-1012-062021-03-152021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-102021-04-022021-04-102021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-292021-04-122021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74847 8770 7211 399255 12373 23873 16981 8725 10769 27992 17701 59222 239009 689 3392 2817 9262 42165 4984 2579 285 494 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1829 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 451 8431 2155 57080 2921 1163 8243 158 940 429 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1386 810 4826 4802 1362 2249 21848 2491 6323 173 1407 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 284 50 31 33 6 105 27 113 34 41 142 127 29 123 158 59 127 130 148 176 122 123 63 131 125 124 182 156 188 26 178 123 178 123 124 29 31 33 63 125 177 131 33 41 33 120 174 155 50 156 29 14 31 121 181 24 121 180 116 42 17 206 132 175
Last total 29957 15433989 1320206 1266601 3067879 24046809 1731652 2722007 2375115 1865639 1124724 4857303 1605252 5083996 32852871 69057 532895 335395 871168 3764353 528465 343432 48404 106360 2279425 1080834 33835 367851 189735 1361567 732692 312839 451204 463995 651406 454745 65043 943714 590956 554941 314509 110429 987829 108877 220340 96531 1008676 196316 320150 2079611 1088343 450315 193732 1182589 585957 123599 821286 2924766 303175 668726 23700 417874 668208 157626 58996
Last daily increment 2 74592 5786 6153 19160 343144 3448 14246 3632 0 6365 8259 3221 11534 38087 83 1144 198 544 1109 1846 470 68 126 4069 1100 73 261 149 1918 882 38 672 409 617 474 296 2313 1007 574 362 112 1389 114 161 202 415 199 436 2189 1161 0 718 2569 356 81 835 2086 285 579 69 1345 571 411 103
Last week 51 351540 38360 30823 99253 2154133 28020 94913 13241 41182 36839 49170 12626 85907 200399 465 2570 1068 3725 8516 7715 1888 268 804 20128 5019 491 1527 947 10172 4928 789 2998 2632 3582 2710 1580 13270 5768 2431 1343 692 7359 536 1046 1227 3498 1098 2170 12756 6825 1443 3746 11860 2584 366 3850 12839 1354 3394 325 6873 2998 1946 373
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2612-1104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2712-1007-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9217 7349 17013 92147 13616 22833 8379 4292 10929 12481 720125 3867 153 3557 9151 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 793 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 10174 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 2913 1343 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 1435 6223 639 74 483 3185 179 72 31 234 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 212 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 2362 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-13 4444631 31640470 634893 1026473 413320 457447 1649947 3578125 263514 3598452 89532 5789589 371712 348158 795200 254450 4139160 1583767 2845762 840929 1069770 1027934 248046 386868 118315 677210
2021-05-14 4447000 31866000 636600 1031000 415400 459400 1654000 3614000 264400 3614000 89780 5804000 373800 351800 797700 254900 4151000 1594000 2851000 841400 1072000 1033000 249100 387600 118800 681000
2021-05-15 4449000 32001000 637900 1035000 416500 461300 1657000 3637000 264500 3617000 90020 5817000 375900 354300 799600 255300 4160000 1601000 2856000 842000 1074000 1033000 250000 388200 119100 681800
2021-05-16 4451000 32083000 638900 1037000 417000 462300 1658000 3643000 264900 3618000 90190 5817000 376900 355400 800900 255700 4167000 1608000 2860000 842300 1075000 1033000 250400 388500 119300 682100
2021-05-17 4453000 32177000 639600 1038000 418200 463500 1658000 3652000 265500 3634000 90310 5817000 378700 355900 801600 256200 4171000 1614000 2861000 842500 1075000 1033000 250500 388800 119900 686200
2021-05-18 4454000 32294000 640600 1041000 419200 465100 1661000 3675000 266200 3640000 90450 5817000 381400 357200 802300 256600 4178000 1620000 2863000 842800 1077000 1037000 251200 389200 120300 687700
2021-05-19 4456000 32398000 641600 1044000 420000 466800 1662000 3684000 266900 3646000 90690 5827000 383600 358800 802800 257000 4185000 1626000 2866000 843200 1078000 1040000 251800 389600 120800 689100
2021-05-20 4458000 32465000 642600 1047000 420500 468300 1663000 3700000 267700 3653000 90930 5847000 385700 359900 804200 257400 4194000 1632000 2870000 843600 1079000 1042000 252400 389900 121100 689600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-13 15433989 1320206 1266601 3067879 24046809 1731652 2722007 2375115 1865639 1124724 4857303 1605252 5083996 32852871 69057 532895 335395 871168 3764353 528465 343432 48404 106360 2279425 1080834 33835 367851 189735 1361567 732692 312839 451204 463995 651406 454745 65043 943714 590956 554941 314509 110429 987829 108877 220340 96531 1008676 196316 320150 2079611 1088343 450315 193732 1182589 585957 123599 821286 2924766 303175 668726 23700 417874 668208 157626 58996
2021-05-14 15495000 1327000 1275000 3084000 24447000 1739000 2739000 2379000 1873000 1131000 4866000 1608000 5103000 32908000 69190 533100 335600 871800 3766000 530800 344800 48460 106400 2282000 1083000 33950 368500 190000 1366000 734300 313400 451800 464700 652300 455400 65450 946800 591500 555500 314700 110600 991100 109100 220700 96740 1011000 196700 320500 2082000 1090000 451500 194900 1190000 586600 123800 822200 2930000 303400 669300 23760 419300 669400 158000 59050
2021-05-15 15553000 1337000 1282000 3100000 24813000 1744000 2762000 2383000 1888000 1137000 4874000 1610000 5133000 32996000 69190 533500 335800 872700 3768000 532700 345100 48570 106500 2285000 1085000 34110 368900 190100 1369000 735500 313500 452300 464700 653000 456000 65810 948600 592200 556000 314700 110700 991600 109300 220900 97050 1013000 196700 320800 2084000 1092000 452100 195900 1195000 587100 123900 823500 2933000 303700 670000 23850 420800 670200 158300 59100
2021-05-16 15584000 1345000 1289000 3115000 25143000 1748000 2781000 2384000 1894000 1143000 4882000 1612000 5158000 33067000 69190 533800 335900 873500 3770000 533800 345300 48660 106600 2288000 1086000 34190 369100 190100 1371000 736400 313500 452800 464700 653500 456300 66020 948600 592700 556500 314700 110800 991700 109300 221100 97300 1013000 196700 321100 2086000 1094000 452700 196500 1197000 587400 123900 824500 2934000 304000 670600 23930 422100 670600 158700 59150
2021-05-17 15606000 1353000 1295000 3130000 25452000 1752000 2799000 2385000 1896000 1150000 4890000 1614000 5179000 33128000 69240 533900 336000 874100 3772000 534700 346400 48720 106700 2290000 1086000 34240 369300 190500 1372000 737100 313900 453300 465600 653800 456600 66260 949100 593100 557100 315100 110900 995800 109400 221200 97520 1013000 197200 321400 2087000 1096000 453500 197000 1201000 587800 124000 825300 2938000 304300 671200 24000 423400 670900 159000 59210
2021-05-18 15674000 1360000 1300000 3145000 25758000 1757000 2817000 2388000 1899000 1155000 4897000 1615000 5200000 33186000 69260 534300 336200 874800 3774000 536200 346900 48790 106800 2292000 1088000 34300 369600 190700 1374000 737800 313900 453800 466200 654100 456900 66500 950900 593600 557600 315400 111100 996700 109500 221500 97730 1014000 197300 321800 2089000 1097000 454600 197600 1205000 587900 124100 826200 2941000 304500 671800 24060 424600 671600 159300 59270
2021-05-19 15747000 1367000 1304000 3160000 26092000 1761000 2834000 2390000 1907000 1159000 4904000 1617000 5220000 33240000 69300 534700 336500 875500 3775000 537100 347100 48840 106800 2295000 1089000 34340 370000 190900 1376000 738600 314300 454300 466700 654900 457300 66760 951800 594000 558100 315600 111200 998000 109600 221700 97930 1014000 197500 322100 2090000 1099000 457100 198200 1208000 588200 124200 827000 2943000 304700 672300 24120 425800 672200 159600 59330
2021-05-20 15814000 1374000 1309000 3175000 26418000 1765000 2851000 2394000 1909000 1165000 4912000 1620000 5239000 33292000 69360 535500 336600 876100 3777000 538900 347600 48890 106900 2297000 1090000 34420 370300 191000 1378000 739600 314300 454800 467100 655500 457700 67030 954200 594500 558600 315800 111300 999400 109700 221800 98120 1015000 197700 322500 2092000 1100000 457100 198900 1210000 588600 124300 827800 2945000 305000 672900 24170 427000 672800 159900 59390

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-13 4444631 31640470 634893 1026473 413320 457447 1649947 3578125 263514 3598452 89532 5789589 371712 348158 795200 254450 4139160 1583767 2845762 840929 1069770 1027934 248046 386868 118315 677210
2021-05-14 4446000 31712000 636000 1029000 414200 459100 1651000 3588000 264500 3606000 89720 5801000 373800 349400 796400 254900 4145000 1590000 2850000 841300 1071000 1030000 248600 387200 118700 678300
2021-05-15 4447000 31751000 636900 1032000 414700 460800 1653000 3598000 265200 3608000 89830 5821000 375700 350800 797400 255300 4150000 1597000 2853000 841600 1072000 1030000 249200 387600 118900 678600
2021-05-16 4449000 31772000 637700 1034000 414900 461900 1653000 3600000 265900 3611000 89910 5829000 376900 351800 798300 255700 4155000 1603000 2855000 841800 1073000 1031000 249600 387800 119100 678800
2021-05-17 4450000 31795000 638300 1035000 415500 463000 1654000 3603000 266700 3621000 89970 5833000 378600 352500 798900 256100 4156000 1608000 2857000 841900 1073000 1031000 249800 388100 119600 680700
2021-05-18 4451000 31836000 639100 1038000 416100 464600 1655000 3616000 267500 3626000 90040 5846000 381000 353700 799700 256500 4160000 1614000 2859000 842100 1074000 1036000 250400 388500 119900 681700
2021-05-19 4453000 31879000 640300 1041000 416800 466300 1657000 3625000 268300 3633000 90160 5863000 382900 355500 800300 256900 4164000 1620000 2862000 842400 1075000 1039000 250900 388900 120300 682800
2021-05-20 4454000 31915000 641300 1043000 417200 468000 1658000 3635000 269100 3640000 90280 5879000 385000 357000 801600 257300 4169000 1626000 2866000 842700 1076000 1042000 251500 389300 120600 683800

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-13 15433989 1320206 1266601 3067879 24046809 1731652 2722007 2375115 1865639 1124724 4857303 1605252 5083996 32852871 69057 532895 335395 871168 3764353 528465 343432 48404 106360 2279425 1080834 33835 367851 189735 1361567 732692 312839 451204 463995 651406 454745 65043 943714 590956 554941 314509 110429 987829 108877 220340 96531 1008676 196316 320150 2079611 1088343 450315 193732 1182589 585957 123599 821286 2924766 303175 668726 23700 417874 668208 157626 58996
2021-05-14 15509000 1326000 1273000 3085000 24391000 1737000 2736000 2378000 1872000 1130000 4863000 1608000 5097000 32888000 69140 533300 335600 871700 3765000 529800 343900 48460 106500 2283000 1082000 33900 368100 189900 1364000 733700 313200 451800 464400 651900 455200 65320 945800 591900 555500 314700 110500 989700 109000 220500 96770 1009000 196600 320500 2081000 1089000 450600 194500 1185000 586600 123700 822000 2927000 303400 669200 23780 418900 668800 158000 59070
2021-05-15 15567000 1333000 1278000 3101000 24743000 1742000 2748000 2381000 1884000 1136000 4867000 1609000 5112000 32918000 69180 533500 335700 872300 3766000 531200 344200 48500 106700 2286000 1083000 34030 368400 190000 1366000 734800 313300 452300 464400 652400 455500 65540 948000 593100 556200 314800 110600 989800 109100 220700 96950 1010000 196600 320800 2083000 1090000 450800 195300 1188000 587200 123700 822500 2929000 303700 669800 23840 419800 669200 158300 59110
2021-05-16 15598000 1339000 1284000 3116000 25069000 1746000 2760000 2382000 1890000 1141000 4871000 1610000 5126000 32942000 69210 533600 335700 872800 3767000 532000 344500 48540 106800 2289000 1084000 34110 368500 190100 1367000 735700 313400 452700 464500 652700 455700 65700 948300 594100 556900 314900 110700 989800 109200 220900 97130 1011000 196600 321000 2085000 1091000 450900 195900 1190000 587600 123700 823000 2930000 303900 670200 23900 420500 669400 158600 59160
2021-05-17 15621000 1345000 1289000 3132000 25388000 1750000 2774000 2384000 1892000 1146000 4875000 1612000 5140000 32971000 69340 533600 335800 873400 3768000 532700 345100 48570 107000 2292000 1085000 34180 368700 190300 1369000 736500 313700 453100 465000 653000 455900 65880 950500 595000 557500 315200 110800 993400 109200 221000 97310 1011000 197000 321400 2087000 1091000 451200 196400 1192000 587900 123700 823700 2932000 304100 670700 23950 421100 669600 158900 59220
2021-05-18 15687000 1351000 1292000 3147000 25724000 1755000 2788000 2386000 1896000 1151000 4879000 1613000 5155000 32999000 69420 533800 335900 874000 3769000 534000 345500 48600 107100 2295000 1086000 34250 368900 190500 1371000 737300 313800 453700 465400 653200 456100 66050 953300 596000 558100 315400 110800 994100 109300 221200 97480 1012000 197100 321800 2088000 1092000 451400 197200 1194000 588200 123800 824300 2934000 304300 671100 24000 421700 670000 159200 59280
2021-05-19 15753000 1357000 1296000 3162000 26052000 1759000 2800000 2389000 1902000 1156000 4883000 1614000 5170000 33028000 69520 534000 336100 874600 3770000 535100 346000 48630 107300 2299000 1087000 34310 369200 190600 1372000 738200 314100 454200 465700 653700 456400 66250 955400 597100 558800 315600 110900 995500 109500 221400 97650 1013000 197300 322100 2090000 1093000 452400 197900 1196000 588600 123900 824800 2935000 304600 671600 24050 422400 670500 159500 59340
2021-05-20 15814000 1363000 1301000 3177000 26406000 1764000 2813000 2391000 1905000 1161000 4886000 1616000 5185000 33058000 69630 534300 336200 875200 3771000 536600 346500 48650 107400 2302000 1088000 34420 369500 190800 1374000 739300 314200 454700 465900 654100 456700 66460 958200 598400 559600 315800 110900 997100 109600 221600 97820 1014000 197500 322500 2093000 1093000 452500 198600 1198000 589100 123900 825400 2937000 304800 672000 24100 423000 671000 159800 59400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed