COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-17


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-05-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-162021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-192021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57045 210458 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 21176 1362 37889 701 42653 2958 2250 8671 5772 34941 7869 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2184
Days since peak 129 192 53 57 56 150 76 28 68 112 60 36 40 31 56 129 186 28 52 114 53 34 200 134 62 28
Last total 4452756 31831586 637573 1032895 414869 462459 1653099 3608320 267339 3615860 90249 5829009 378485 350506 798573 254870 4162576 1600993 2855190 842381 1072291 1037126 249424 387659 119500 682160
Last daily increment 1979 34594 476 972 677 948 259 5381 836 11061 144 3350 1395 116 426 0 3454 2829 1111 199 392 0 114 136 201 2650
Last week 13065 341167 4807 12563 2712 8349 6118 50416 6426 29527 1259 78911 11409 4883 5694 1303 39346 29595 17010 2373 4404 15522 2699 1523 2005 6489
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53549 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21295 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1117 5635 11039 24662 814 8604 8566 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3421 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-05-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-142021-04-092021-04-182021-05-112021-01-282021-04-172021-01-202021-04-162021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-03-152021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-16 --2021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-282021-04-162021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-1910-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74847 8755 7144 17130 386247 12373 24074 16981 9097 10769 27986 17701 59596 238988 689 3392 2817 9262 42169 4984 2579 285 494 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1851 3244 3605 3407 3015 468 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1458 804 4756 4802 1362 2233 21848 2491 6323 173 1398 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 288 54 33 38 29 6 109 30 117 31 45 146 131 31 127 162 63 131 134 152 180 126 127 67 135 129 128 186 160 192 30 182 127 182 128 33 35 37 67 129 181 135 42 45 157 124 178 159 54 160 33 19 31 125 185 28 125 184 120 46 28 210 136 179
Last total 29983 15657391 1342206 1292096 3131410 25228996 1744045 2765485 2382745 1889052 1149925 4892938 1615485 5127548 32994343 69302 540267 336003 873446 3769791 532322 344457 48590 106868 2290813 1083352 34247 368527 190279 1367124 735999 313557 452812 465528 677983 456216 65914 949844 594515 556210 315026 110723 991955 109135 220611 97076 1010243 197066 321081 2086714 1091623 450315 195884 1188272 588939 123686 823177 2931500 303898 670456 23890 421893 669804 158643 59222
Last daily increment 5 30148 6424 5548 12984 263533 4295 14319 822 0 5962 9204 1757 10174 53497 134 184 67 468 1032 690 662 45 82 1975 382 67 129 371 956 537 365 284 1112 25097 212 199 2551 583 171 316 38 2617 31 181 92 350 534 542 1354 729 0 200 1474 346 42 1263 2450 116 272 29 819 136 175 143
Last week 37 374686 34343 35550 99684 1888058 20449 74133 14352 35682 36378 51990 16213 68115 215437 415 8863 1038 3291 8047 6915 1682 308 747 18677 4564 524 1312 918 9283 5030 1156 2957 2424 28128 2416 1468 11196 5475 2333 1084 616 7006 483 614 1174 2464 1144 1831 11307 5890 1443 3468 10189 3720 251 3560 11457 1335 2870 303 6450 2830 1768 387
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-192021-01-0805-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2712-1007-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 359 45270 9217 7348 17013 92153 13617 22833 8380 4292 10927 12481 720124 3868 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 5720 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 10174 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 2913 1343 3454 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4743 1435 6223 639 74 483 3185 179 72 31 234 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 2362 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-17 4452756 31831586 637573 1032895 414869 462459 1653099 3608320 267339 3615860 90249 5829009 378485 350506 798573 254870 4162576 1600993 2855190 842381 1072291 1037126 249424 387659 119500 682160
2021-05-18 4455000 31911000 639400 1037000 416500 464700 1654000 3641000 268200 3625000 90410 5840000 381200 351500 801100 254900 4175000 1612000 2862000 842600 1074000 1049000 250500 388300 120100 684700
2021-05-19 4457000 31977000 640900 1042000 417900 466700 1656000 3660000 268600 3635000 90680 5855000 383300 352900 803500 255000 4184000 1621000 2868000 843100 1074000 1055000 251400 389000 120700 687000
2021-05-20 4459000 32038000 642100 1045000 418600 468300 1656000 3678000 269200 3643000 90930 5867000 385400 353600 805800 255100 4193000 1628000 2873000 843500 1075000 1063000 252100 389400 121000 687900
2021-05-21 4461000 32097000 643100 1047000 419400 469900 1657000 3689000 269900 3651000 91090 5867000 387400 354100 807900 255100 4202000 1634000 2875000 843900 1076000 1068000 252600 389800 121400 689900
2021-05-22 4463000 32160000 643800 1049000 419700 471400 1658000 3700000 270700 3652000 91310 5878000 389300 354800 809200 255200 4208000 1640000 2879000 844300 1076000 1068000 253200 390100 121700 690200
2021-05-23 4465000 32169000 644500 1051000 419700 472200 1658000 3703000 271500 3652000 91470 5880000 390100 354800 810400 255200 4213000 1644000 2880000 844600 1076000 1068000 253400 390200 121900 690200
2021-05-24 4467000 32197000 645000 1052000 420400 473200 1658000 3708000 272300 3665000 91580 5880000 391500 354800 810900 255200 4216000 1648000 2881000 844800 1076000 1068000 253500 390300 122200 692900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-17 15657391 1342206 1292096 3131410 25228996 1744045 2765485 2382745 1889052 1149925 4892938 1615485 5127548 32994343 69302 540267 336003 873446 3769791 532322 344457 48590 106868 2290813 1083352 34247 368527 190279 1367124 735999 313557 452812 465528 677983 456216 65914 949844 594515 556210 315026 110723 991955 109135 220611 97076 1010243 197066 321081 2086714 1091623 450315 195884 1188272 588939 123686 823177 2931500 303898 670456 23890 421893 669804 158643 59222
2021-05-18 15717000 1348000 1296000 3146000 25724000 1748000 2779000 2386000 1895000 1156000 4900000 1615000 5142000 33032000 69520 540300 336300 874100 3771000 534500 345300 48640 107000 2293000 1085000 34340 369100 190500 1368000 737300 313700 453300 466100 687100 456700 66320 957700 595500 556900 315300 110800 994000 109300 221000 97250 1011000 197300 321400 2089000 1092000 450700 197200 1191000 589600 123900 823900 2936000 304200 671000 23950 423800 671100 158900 59270
2021-05-19 15783000 1359000 1300000 3162000 26125000 1752000 2792000 2390000 1905000 1161000 4907000 1615000 5160000 33092000 69700 540500 336500 875000 3774000 536200 346000 48730 107400 2296000 1087000 34400 369600 190700 1370000 738500 314200 454100 466600 695800 457100 66660 963900 597900 557900 315500 111000 996000 109500 221300 97600 1012000 197500 321900 2091000 1093000 452500 198100 1193000 590300 124000 825000 2939000 304600 672000 24050 425300 672100 159400 59340
2021-05-20 15846000 1367000 1306000 3179000 26482000 1755000 2803000 2394000 1907000 1166000 4915000 1616000 5176000 33139000 69830 541300 336700 875800 3776000 538200 346600 48810 107700 2298000 1088000 34490 369900 190900 1371000 739500 314200 454700 466900 704700 457500 66960 968500 599700 558700 315800 111200 998000 109600 221500 97860 1013000 197700 322300 2094000 1094000 452500 199100 1196000 590800 124100 825800 2942000 304900 672700 24130 426600 672900 159800 59400
2021-05-21 15917000 1375000 1313000 3195000 26813000 1759000 2813000 2397000 1918000 1173000 4923000 1617000 5190000 33179000 69930 541700 336900 876500 3778000 539700 347100 48870 107900 2301000 1090000 34600 370200 191100 1373000 740500 314600 455200 467400 712700 457900 67240 972200 601100 559400 316000 111300 1000000 109800 221600 98070 1014000 198000 322600 2096000 1095000 452700 200000 1198000 591400 124200 826500 2945000 305100 673400 24190 427900 673700 160200 59460
2021-05-22 15975000 1382000 1319000 3211000 27136000 1763000 2822000 2400000 1922000 1179000 4931000 1618000 5204000 33218000 69960 542200 337100 877100 3779000 540900 347200 48920 108100 2303000 1091000 34710 370400 191100 1375000 741600 314700 455800 467400 720300 458200 67470 975400 602400 560000 316000 111400 1000000 109800 221700 98280 1015000 198000 322900 2098000 1096000 452700 200900 1200000 592600 124200 827200 2946000 305300 674000 24250 429000 674500 160500 59520
2021-05-23 16008000 1388000 1324000 3225000 27411000 1766000 2831000 2401000 1930000 1184000 4939000 1619000 5217000 33254000 69960 542300 337200 877800 3781000 541300 347200 48970 108200 2305000 1092000 34810 370500 191100 1376000 742300 314700 456300 467400 727700 458300 67620 976300 603500 560600 316000 111500 1000000 109900 221700 98460 1015000 198000 323300 2099000 1097000 452700 201500 1201000 593000 124200 827800 2947000 305500 674600 24310 430200 674900 160800 59580
2021-05-24 16032000 1394000 1329000 3236000 27674000 1769000 2844000 2402000 1930000 1190000 4947000 1620000 5231000 33289000 70100 542600 337200 878300 3782000 542100 347800 49020 108400 2307000 1092000 34870 370700 191400 1377000 742800 315000 456700 468300 735000 458700 67820 979300 604600 561200 316300 111700 1003000 109900 221800 98640 1016000 198500 323600 2101000 1097000 452700 201600 1202000 593400 124200 828400 2949000 305600 675100 24360 431300 675000 161100 59640

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-17 4452756 31831586 637573 1032895 414869 462459 1653099 3608320 267339 3615860 90249 5829009 378485 350506 798573 254870 4162576 1600993 2855190 842381 1072291 1037126 249424 387659 119500 682160
2021-05-18 4454000 31872000 638200 1035000 415400 464000 1654000 3622000 268100 3620000 90370 5845000 380800 351200 799100 255000 4167000 1605000 2857000 842600 1073000 1048000 249900 387900 119900 683300
2021-05-19 4455000 31910000 639200 1038000 416100 465800 1656000 3631000 268800 3627000 90510 5863000 382900 352800 799900 255300 4171000 1612000 2861000 842900 1074000 1052000 250600 388400 120300 684600
2021-05-20 4456000 31939000 640000 1040000 416400 467400 1657000 3640000 269500 3633000 90630 5877000 385000 354000 801100 255600 4175000 1618000 2864000 843200 1075000 1056000 251100 388800 120600 685200
2021-05-21 4458000 31971000 640800 1042000 416900 468900 1658000 3645000 270300 3639000 90710 5884000 387000 355000 802100 255800 4179000 1623000 2866000 843400 1076000 1061000 251500 389100 120900 686400
2021-05-22 4459000 32012000 641500 1044000 417200 470500 1660000 3654000 271200 3642000 90830 5901000 388900 356300 802700 256100 4183000 1628000 2870000 843700 1076000 1061000 252100 389400 121200 686800
2021-05-23 4461000 32041000 642200 1047000 417400 471600 1660000 3659000 272000 3645000 90920 5912000 390200 357300 803600 256300 4186000 1633000 2874000 844000 1077000 1062000 252400 389700 121400 687100
2021-05-24 4462000 32061000 642800 1048000 417900 472800 1661000 3663000 272800 3656000 90980 5919000 391900 358000 803900 256500 4189000 1639000 2877000 844100 1078000 1062000 252700 389900 121700 689000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-18 to 2021-05-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-17 15657391 1342206 1292096 3131410 25228996 1744045 2765485 2382745 1889052 1149925 4892938 1615485 5127548 32994343 69302 540267 336003 873446 3769791 532322 344457 48590 106868 2290813 1083352 34247 368527 190279 1367124 735999 313557 452812 465528 677983 456216 65914 949844 594515 556210 315026 110723 991955 109135 220611 97076 1010243 197066 321081 2086714 1091623 450315 195884 1188272 588939 123686 823177 2931500 303898 670456 23890 421893 669804 158643 59222
2021-05-18 15729000 1348000 1296000 3146000 25546000 1747000 2778000 2385000 1892000 1155000 4899000 1617000 5137000 33028000 69380 540600 336200 873900 3771000 533700 344800 48630 107000 2293000 1084000 34320 368800 190500 1368000 736700 313600 453300 466000 687200 456500 66140 952500 595200 556600 315200 110800 992000 109300 220800 97230 1011000 197200 321500 2088000 1092000 450400 196400 1190000 589300 123800 823900 2933000 304100 670800 23940 422500 670200 158900 59290
2021-05-19 15798000 1354000 1300000 3161000 25874000 1751000 2789000 2388000 1899000 1159000 4903000 1619000 5147000 33057000 69510 541200 336300 874500 3772000 534900 345300 48670 107200 2296000 1085000 34380 369100 190700 1369000 737700 314000 453900 466200 690200 456800 66400 955600 596600 557200 315400 110900 994000 109400 221100 97440 1013000 197300 321800 2090000 1093000 451800 197100 1192000 589800 123800 824700 2935000 304400 671300 23990 423400 670700 159200 59350
2021-05-20 15864000 1360000 1305000 3176000 26181000 1755000 2799000 2390000 1901000 1164000 4906000 1621000 5156000 33087000 69620 541900 336400 875000 3773000 536600 345700 48700 107300 2300000 1086000 34460 369300 190800 1371000 738700 314100 454500 466500 693300 457100 66620 958300 597700 557700 315700 111000 995000 109500 221200 97630 1014000 197500 322200 2092000 1094000 451800 197700 1193000 590300 123900 825400 2937000 304600 671800 24050 424000 671000 159500 59410
2021-05-21 15939000 1366000 1312000 3191000 26487000 1758000 2806000 2393000 1909000 1169000 4911000 1624000 5166000 33116000 69710 542500 336500 875600 3773000 537900 346100 48730 107500 2303000 1087000 34560 369500 191000 1372000 739600 314400 455100 466700 696400 457400 66840 960400 598800 558100 315900 111100 997000 109600 221400 97810 1015000 197700 322600 2093000 1094000 452100 198400 1195000 590800 123900 826100 2938000 304800 672200 24120 424800 671400 159800 59470
2021-05-22 15998000 1371000 1317000 3206000 26798000 1761000 2812000 2395000 1913000 1174000 4914000 1626000 5178000 33142000 69780 543100 336700 876100 3774000 539100 346400 48750 107600 2306000 1088000 34660 369800 191000 1374000 740600 314600 455600 466800 699500 457700 67050 962600 600000 558600 315900 111200 997000 109700 221500 97990 1016000 197700 322800 2095000 1095000 452200 199100 1196000 592000 123900 826600 2939000 305100 672600 24170 425500 671800 160100 59520
2021-05-23 16032000 1376000 1323000 3220000 27071000 1765000 2820000 2397000 1919000 1179000 4918000 1628000 5189000 33162000 69840 543500 336700 876700 3775000 539900 346600 48780 107700 2309000 1089000 34750 369900 191100 1375000 741400 314700 456100 466900 702600 458000 67230 963000 601200 559000 316000 111200 997000 109800 221600 98170 1016000 197700 323000 2097000 1095000 452400 199700 1198000 592500 123900 827200 2940000 305300 673000 24220 426100 672100 160400 59560
2021-05-24 16054000 1381000 1328000 3234000 27356000 1769000 2830000 2398000 1920000 1184000 4922000 1630000 5199000 33189000 70010 543900 336800 877200 3776000 540500 347200 48800 107900 2312000 1090000 34820 370100 191300 1376000 742200 315000 456500 467400 705300 458200 67410 966000 602100 559500 316300 111300 1001000 109900 221800 98340 1017000 198200 323400 2098000 1096000 452600 200100 1199000 592900 124000 827900 2942000 305500 673400 24270 426700 672200 160700 59630

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed