COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-05-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-192021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-192021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57045 210469 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 22138 1362 37890 701 42652 2958 2244 8671 5772 34943 7975 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2297
Days since peak 132 195 56 60 59 153 79 31 71 115 63 39 43 31 59 132 189 31 55 117 56 37 203 137 65 31
Last total 4455221 32007400 639616 1041706 416055 466233 1656202 3638504 270557 3631661 90946 5863138 385444 352692 800368 254870 4178261 1615500 2861351 843729 1074297 1055173 250811 388391 120797 686152
Last daily increment 2694 45638 562 3192 368 1309 788 10727 1214 5733 259 0 1886 695 780 0 5736 4632 2090 451 618 3411 358 253 505 1198
Last week 8397 303647 3836 13602 2217 7194 5024 50002 6092 26862 1260 67080 11563 3608 3978 0 31539 26218 12337 2350 3692 18047 2291 1229 2057 6642
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53552 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21295 147 51953 2609 3554 5428 1117 5635 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5007 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-05-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-04-142021-04-092021-04-182021-05-052021-01-282021-04-202021-01-202021-04-172021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-03-152021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2212-102021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-1910-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 8683 7144 17237 382271 12373 24228 16980 8742 10769 27992 17701 58966 239009 689 3392 2817 9262 42164 4984 2579 285 494 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1834 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 811 10174 4802 1362 2245 21848 2491 6323 173 1428 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 291 36 41 32 15 112 30 120 33 48 149 134 34 130 165 66 134 137 155 183 129 130 70 138 132 131 189 163 195 33 185 130 185 130 131 36 38 40 70 132 184 138 45 48 160 127 181 162 57 163 36 28 161 128 188 31 128 187 123 49 31 213 139 182
Last total 29999 15894094 1355733 1308311 3177212 26031991 1758898 2804632 2390140 1903615 1165155 4917906 1625003 5160423 33056765 69538 541230 336816 875193 3774455 535249 344970 48662 107809 2299355 1085601 34474 369233 190900 1371788 738173 314086 454600 467065 654459 457084 66534 954894 596558 557546 316167 111025 994733 109440 220887 97447 1011895 197562 322018 2091225 1094742 451280 197356 1192678 589846 123877 824726 2938261 304563 671916 24004 424360 671445 159450 59590
Last daily increment 4 82039 4836 7682 16086 259551 5797 12428 2628 0 6084 9112 3641 9385 30141 79 339 262 589 1782 953 204 28 103 2909 786 79 211 188 1544 891 28 565 420 522 319 219 1579 886 526 276 33 1186 78 109 114 555 198 302 1647 1208 0 568 1709 358 55 551 1647 179 591 38 949 569 301 214
Last week 35 374569 28744 34795 92752 1659084 24613 72480 12145 24566 33688 51265 16610 65033 161596 370 3417 1184 3172 7451 5219 1175 238 1314 16347 3886 508 1150 992 8383 4582 894 2843 2649 2710 1827 1187 9088 4308 2184 1457 465 5395 467 457 703 2906 1030 1479 9525 5385 965 2814 8419 3261 233 2812 11066 1169 2697 234 4094 2640 1527 511
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9217 7349 17013 92145 13616 22832 8380 4292 10929 12481 720125 3868 153 3557 9151 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1624 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 2913 1343 3454 11280 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 1435 6223 639 74 483 3185 179 72 31 234 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 422 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-20 4455221 32007400 639616 1041706 416055 466233 1656202 3638504 270557 3631661 90946 5863138 385444 352692 800368 4178261 1615500 2861351 843729 1074297 1055173 250811 388391 120797 686152
2021-05-21 4456000 32203000 641500 1045000 417600 468800 1659000 3664000 271500 3643000 91110 5895000 388100 356600 802600 4185000 1621000 2867000 844000 1076000 1068000 251800 389000 121300 689900
2021-05-22 4457000 32322000 642600 1048000 418300 470800 1662000 3682000 272000 3645000 91330 5921000 390000 359100 804400 4189000 1631000 2871000 844400 1077000 1069000 252700 389600 121700 690900
2021-05-23 4457000 32406000 643500 1050000 418600 471900 1663000 3691000 272700 3646000 91510 5936000 391000 360600 805600 4192000 1639000 2873000 844700 1077000 1069000 253100 389800 121900 691600
2021-05-24 4458000 32481000 644100 1052000 419400 473000 1664000 3699000 273400 3660000 91620 5941000 392500 361900 806200 4193000 1645000 2874000 844800 1078000 1070000 253200 390000 122200 695500
2021-05-25 4458000 32581000 644900 1054000 420000 474300 1665000 3714000 274200 3666000 91760 5956000 395000 363300 807300 4196000 1651000 2877000 845100 1078000 1082000 253900 390300 122600 697800
2021-05-26 4459000 32676000 645800 1057000 420400 475600 1666000 3722000 275100 3671000 92030 5972000 397100 364900 808000 4199000 1657000 2878000 845600 1079000 1087000 254400 390600 123100 699900
2021-05-27 4460000 32715000 646400 1060000 420800 477000 1666000 3732000 276000 3677000 92280 5979000 399000 365400 808900 4204000 1662000 2881000 846000 1080000 1091000 254800 390800 123500 700000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-20 15894094 1355733 1308311 3177212 26031991 1758898 2804632 2390140 1903615 1165155 4917906 1625003 5160423 33056765 69538 541230 336816 875193 3774455 535249 344970 48662 107809 2299355 1085601 34474 369233 190900 1371788 738173 314086 454600 467065 654459 457084 66534 954894 596558 557546 316167 111025 994733 109440 220887 97447 1011895 197562 322018 2091225 1094742 451280 197356 1192678 589846 123877 824726 2938261 304563 671916 24004 424360 671445 159450 59590
2021-05-21 15955000 1361000 1313000 3195000 26300000 1766000 2815000 2394000 1915000 1173000 4925000 1628000 5173000 33102000 69750 541300 337000 875800 3776000 537900 346000 48700 107900 2305000 1088000 34580 369900 191100 1374000 739700 314500 455100 467700 655700 457400 67000 962500 597300 558400 316300 111100 998000 109600 221300 97610 1013000 197900 322300 2095000 1096000 452500 198000 1194000 590700 124000 825400 2943000 304900 672300 24120 425600 671800 159700 59600
2021-05-22 16013000 1372000 1319000 3212000 26596000 1772000 2824000 2397000 1919000 1180000 4933000 1630000 5189000 33178000 69810 541300 337200 876700 3778000 539500 346400 48800 107900 2309000 1090000 34690 370400 191100 1375000 741000 314600 455700 467700 656800 457700 67310 967100 598200 559300 316300 111300 999000 109800 221500 97940 1016000 198000 322600 2097000 1098000 452700 198400 1195000 592000 124100 826500 2945000 305200 672700 24200 427500 672200 160200 59630
2021-05-23 16045000 1381000 1324000 3227000 26874000 1777000 2834000 2398000 1927000 1186000 4941000 1632000 5204000 33238000 69830 541300 337300 877400 3780000 540400 346500 48880 108000 2311000 1091000 34790 370700 191100 1377000 741900 314600 456300 467700 657600 457800 67530 968800 599000 559700 316300 111500 999000 109800 221500 98190 1018000 198000 322800 2100000 1100000 452800 198700 1196000 592500 124100 827200 2946000 305400 673000 24250 428900 672200 160600 59680
2021-05-24 16068000 1388000 1329000 3238000 27139000 1782000 2847000 2399000 1927000 1192000 4949000 1634000 5217000 33288000 70020 541300 337400 878000 3782000 541300 347300 48930 108100 2314000 1092000 34850 370900 191400 1378000 742500 314900 456800 468600 658100 457900 67740 972500 599700 560100 316600 111600 1002000 109900 221700 98390 1019000 198500 323100 2101000 1101000 453000 198700 1197000 592900 124200 827900 2949000 305500 673400 24280 430100 672200 160900 59730
2021-05-25 16138000 1394000 1332000 3251000 27403000 1787000 2859000 2402000 1931000 1196000 4956000 1635000 5230000 33337000 70090 541300 337600 878600 3783000 542300 347600 48980 108100 2317000 1094000 34900 371300 191600 1379000 743000 314900 457300 469200 658800 458000 67990 976400 600400 560700 317000 111700 1003000 110000 221900 98580 1020000 198700 323400 2103000 1102000 453400 199000 1198000 593100 124300 828600 2952000 305700 673700 24330 431300 672600 161200 59790
2021-05-26 16213000 1400000 1336000 3266000 27663000 1793000 2871000 2404000 1939000 1200000 4963000 1638000 5242000 33381000 70180 541300 337900 879200 3785000 543300 347700 49030 108200 2320000 1095000 34970 371700 191800 1380000 743700 315400 457800 469700 659500 458100 68190 979000 601100 561200 317200 111800 1004000 110100 222000 98750 1022000 198800 323700 2104000 1103000 453400 199100 1199000 593400 124300 829200 2954000 306000 674100 24360 432300 672800 161500 59860
2021-05-27 16288000 1406000 1343000 3281000 27922000 1797000 2882000 2407000 1940000 1206000 4971000 1641000 5254000 33424000 70250 541300 338100 879800 3786000 544400 348000 49070 108300 2322000 1096000 35050 371900 191900 1382000 744600 315400 458200 470100 659900 458400 68420 980700 601800 561800 317500 111900 1005000 110200 222100 98910 1023000 199000 323900 2106000 1105000 453400 199700 1200000 593800 124400 829700 2955000 306200 674500 24410 433400 673400 161800 59920

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-20 4455221 32007400 639616 1041706 416055 466233 1656202 3638504 270557 3631661 90946 5863138 385444 352692 800368 4178261 1615500 2861351 843729 1074297 1055173 250811 388391 120797 686152
2021-05-21 4457000 32061000 640300 1044000 416600 467700 1657000 3646000 271600 3637000 91090 5870000 387600 353600 801200 4182000 1620000 2863000 844100 1075000 1059000 251200 388600 121200 687700
2021-05-22 4458000 32097000 640900 1046000 416900 469200 1658000 3653000 272400 3639000 91200 5884000 389600 354700 801900 4185000 1625000 2866000 844400 1076000 1060000 251700 388900 121500 688000
2021-05-23 4459000 32120000 641400 1048000 417100 470100 1659000 3657000 273200 3642000 91290 5893000 390900 355400 802500 4188000 1630000 2868000 844600 1076000 1060000 252000 389100 121700 688200
2021-05-24 4460000 32138000 641800 1049000 417600 471100 1659000 3660000 274100 3650000 91340 5898000 392500 356000 802800 4189000 1634000 2869000 844700 1077000 1061000 252100 389300 122000 689700
2021-05-25 4461000 32170000 642400 1051000 418000 472400 1660000 3668000 275000 3654000 91410 5909000 394900 356600 803300 4193000 1639000 2872000 845000 1077000 1065000 252600 389600 122300 690600
2021-05-26 4462000 32219000 643300 1053000 418500 474100 1662000 3675000 275900 3660000 91540 5923000 397100 357800 803800 4195000 1644000 2874000 845200 1078000 1067000 253000 389900 122700 691700
2021-05-27 4463000 32245000 644000 1056000 418800 475600 1663000 3682000 276800 3665000 91660 5935000 399200 358500 804600 4199000 1649000 2876000 845500 1079000 1070000 253400 390200 123000 692000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-21 to 2021-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-20 15894094 1355733 1308311 3177212 26031991 1758898 2804632 2390140 1903615 1165155 4917906 1625003 5160423 33056765 69538 541230 336816 875193 3774455 535249 344970 48662 107809 2299355 1085601 34474 369233 190900 1371788 738173 314086 454600 467065 654459 457084 66534 954894 596558 557546 316167 111025 994733 109440 220887 97447 1011895 197562 322018 2091225 1094742 451280 197356 1192678 589846 123877 824726 2938261 304563 671916 24004 424360 671445 159450 59590
2021-05-21 15978000 1361000 1315000 3193000 26290000 1763000 2813000 2393000 1911000 1171000 4925000 1628000 5169000 33087000 69620 541800 337000 875700 3776000 536400 345200 48690 108100 2302000 1086000 34570 369400 191100 1373000 739000 314400 455100 467500 654800 457400 66760 956500 597300 558100 316400 111100 996000 109500 221000 97610 1012000 197800 322300 2093000 1096000 451500 197900 1194000 590400 123900 825300 2940000 304800 672300 24070 425500 671900 159700 59680
2021-05-22 16040000 1367000 1321000 3209000 26552000 1767000 2819000 2395000 1915000 1176000 4928000 1630000 5177000 33110000 69650 542100 337100 876200 3777000 537500 345400 48730 108300 2305000 1087000 34660 369600 191100 1375000 740000 314500 455600 467500 655200 457600 66970 958100 598100 558600 316500 111200 996000 109600 221100 97820 1013000 197800 322500 2095000 1096000 451700 198500 1196000 591600 123900 825800 2941000 305000 672600 24120 426200 672200 160000 59720
2021-05-23 16075000 1372000 1327000 3223000 26787000 1770000 2826000 2396000 1921000 1180000 4932000 1633000 5185000 33128000 69680 542200 337200 876700 3778000 538000 345500 48760 108400 2307000 1088000 34750 369800 191200 1376000 740700 314600 456100 467600 655500 457800 67130 958500 598800 559000 316500 111200 996000 109700 221200 98000 1014000 197800 322700 2096000 1097000 452000 199000 1197000 592000 123900 826300 2942000 305200 672900 24160 426800 672400 160300 59770
2021-05-24 16100000 1377000 1332000 3237000 27015000 1774000 2836000 2397000 1923000 1185000 4936000 1635000 5193000 33149000 69780 542300 337200 877200 3778000 538500 346000 48780 108600 2310000 1089000 34810 369900 191400 1376000 741400 314900 456500 468200 655700 457900 67300 960300 599500 559400 316800 111300 999000 109700 221300 98170 1014000 198300 323000 2098000 1097000 452400 199300 1198000 592400 124000 826900 2944000 305300 673200 24200 427400 672400 160600 59840
2021-05-25 16169000 1382000 1335000 3251000 27290000 1778000 2845000 2400000 1926000 1189000 4940000 1637000 5201000 33169000 69850 542300 337400 877700 3779000 539700 346200 48810 108800 2312000 1090000 34880 370100 191600 1378000 742000 315000 457000 468500 655900 458000 67490 962400 600100 559800 317100 111400 1000000 109800 221500 98330 1015000 198400 323300 2099000 1098000 452700 199800 1200000 592600 124000 827300 2945000 305500 673500 24240 427900 672800 160800 59900
2021-05-26 16242000 1387000 1339000 3266000 27530000 1782000 2853000 2402000 1933000 1193000 4943000 1639000 5212000 33190000 69940 542500 337500 878200 3780000 540800 346500 48830 109000 2315000 1091000 34940 370400 191700 1379000 742900 315300 457500 468800 656300 458300 67690 964400 600800 560300 317300 111400 1001000 109900 221600 98490 1016000 198600 323500 2101000 1098000 452900 200300 1201000 593000 124100 827900 2947000 305700 673800 24280 428500 673100 161100 59950
2021-05-27 16307000 1391000 1345000 3281000 27775000 1786000 2861000 2404000 1934000 1198000 4947000 1641000 5222000 33212000 70010 542800 337600 878700 3781000 542200 346800 48850 109100 2318000 1092000 35020 370600 191900 1380000 743700 315400 458000 469100 656600 458600 67910 966000 601500 560700 317500 111500 1002000 110000 221800 98640 1016000 198700 323800 2102000 1099000 453400 200900 1203000 593500 124100 828400 2948000 305900 674100 24330 429000 673500 161400 60020

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed