COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-05-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-232021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-232021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57047 210472 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 21466 1362 37888 701 42651 2958 2247 8671 5772 34943 8096 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 136 199 60 64 63 157 83 32 75 119 67 43 47 31 63 136 193 31 59 121 60 41 207 141 69 35
Last total 4464900 31805344 641740 1049822 416727 469344 1658092 3659990 274413 3647520 91619 5550143 391181 354060 802346 254870 4194672 1628922 2866181 845465 1075773 1058341 251773 388854 122652 687353
Last daily increment 2362 26731 360 941 81 358 199 2328 919 11067 93 2229 1377 74 258 0 2489 2690 559 241 230 0 83 19 238 0
Last week 14508 -87634 3585 15108 1401 5810 3873 44094 6158 27672 1221 -294867 9915 3063 3391 0 27647 22603 9257 2698 2801 11198 1852 962 2838 3953
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0211-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21294 147 51664 2609 3554 5428 1117 5635 11039 24662 814 8604 8566 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-05-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-142021-04-09 --2021-05-052021-01-282021-04-212021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-03-112021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2412-102021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74847 8683 7144 383599 12373 23947 16980 8725 10769 27987 17701 58966 238988 689 3873 2817 9262 42170 4984 2579 285 494 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 836 10174 4802 1362 2129 21848 2491 6324 173 1474 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 295 61 40 45 19 116 33 124 45 52 153 138 38 134 169 10 138 141 159 187 133 134 74 142 136 135 193 167 199 37 189 134 189 134 135 40 42 44 74 136 188 142 49 52 164 131 185 166 61 167 40 30 165 132 192 35 132 191 127 53 28 217 143 186
Last total 30029 16120756 1368241 1335261 3249433 26948874 1781127 2843523 2397307 1925289 1184706 4952412 1637848 5194010 33143246 69701 542256 337335 877182 3778097 537791 345527 48762 108186 2308881 1087538 34688 369758 191397 1376356 740564 314757 456044 467989 655729 458520 67071 958717 598733 558986 316754 111224 998176 109633 221165 97781 1013325 198043 322757 2096171 1097867 451280 198972 1198084 591365 123942 826131 2944265 305225 673105 24105 427982 672591 160354 59797
Last daily increment 10 37498 1766 5343 16977 196427 5907 11005 703 0 4894 8283 2383 7523 25509 96 132 51 452 1059 458 384 14 44 1605 289 34 89 329 937 375 275 263 584 186 228 99 1434 464 192 482 21 2422 30 171 44 101 312 405 958 567 0 283 1306 384 31 857 2876 99 76 21 1979 169 619 136
Last week 37 387920 22158 39399 104886 1452544 32897 64108 11795 31955 30318 51417 20008 54525 145915 341 1653 1027 3119 6883 4739 989 146 1232 15261 3414 388 1026 925 7735 4084 1198 2593 1965 2219 2092 958 7338 3708 2373 1120 363 5598 398 455 574 2436 827 1389 7930 5251 965 2580 8171 2267 158 2412 9673 1140 2271 182 5426 2229 1466 476
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45271 9218 7349 17013 92154 13617 22832 8380 4292 10927 12481 720126 3868 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1624 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 2913 1343 11282 6013 4599 1490 1194 4743 1435 6223 328 74 483 3185 179 72 31 234 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 422 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-25 to 2021-05-31

DateUKATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-24 4464900 641740 1049822 416727 469344 1658092 3659990 274413 3647520 91619 391181 354060 802346 4194672 1628922 2866181 845465 1075773 1058341 251773 388854 122652 687353
2021-05-25 4467000 642300 1052000 418200 469900 1659000 3681000 275400 3654000 91800 394500 354900 804300 4199000 1634000 2868000 845600 1076000 1067000 252800 389100 122900 690300
2021-05-26 4469000 643200 1056000 419300 470700 1660000 3698000 276200 3662000 92080 396900 356000 805800 4203000 1638000 2871000 845900 1077000 1070000 253600 389400 123300 692500
2021-05-27 4470000 643800 1059000 419900 471300 1661000 3711000 277100 3668000 92330 398900 356400 807300 4207000 1642000 2873000 846300 1077000 1072000 254200 389500 123700 693600
2021-05-28 4472000 644400 1062000 420500 471700 1661000 3721000 278000 3674000 92510 400900 356700 808500 4211000 1647000 2874000 846700 1077000 1075000 254600 389600 124300 694400
2021-05-29 4474000 644900 1064000 420900 472500 1662000 3730000 278900 3676000 92730 402500 357300 809700 4215000 1651000 2875000 847200 1078000 1075000 255000 389800 124600 695400
2021-05-30 4475000 645300 1066000 421000 472500 1662000 3732000 279800 3676000 92850 403100 357300 810300 4217000 1654000 2875000 847500 1078000 1075000 255100 389800 125000 695400
2021-05-31 4477000 645600 1066000 421300 472900 1662000 3735000 280700 3688000 92940 404400 357300 810500 4219000 1656000 2876000 847700 1078000 1075000 255200 389800 125200 696000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-25 to 2021-05-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-24 16120756 1368241 1335261 3249433 26948874 1781127 2843523 2397307 1925289 1184706 4952412 1637848 5194010 33143246 69701 542256 337335 877182 3778097 537791 345527 108186 2308881 1087538 34688 369758 191397 1376356 740564 314757 456044 467989 655729 458520 67071 958717 598733 558986 316754 111224 998176 109633 221165 97781 1013325 198043 322757 2096171 1097867 451280 198972 1198084 591365 826131 2944265 305225 673105 427982 672591 160354 59797
2021-05-25 16179000 1373000 1338000 3260000 27181000 1785000 2856000 2400000 1931000 1194000 4960000 1639000 5206000 33168000 69850 542700 337600 877700 3779000 539900 346300 108300 2311000 1089000 34810 369900 191600 1378000 741000 314800 456500 468800 655700 458700 67170 963000 599400 559500 317100 111300 1000000 109700 221500 97910 1013000 198000 323100 2098000 1098000 451900 199400 1200000 591500 826700 2948000 305500 673400 428900 673000 160800 59850
2021-05-26 16246000 1379000 1341000 3274000 27474000 1790000 2867000 2403000 1941000 1201000 4967000 1641000 5225000 33206000 69990 542900 337800 878600 3782000 541700 346800 108400 2314000 1089000 34910 370200 191800 1380000 741700 315300 457200 469400 656100 459000 67290 966800 600500 560100 317200 111500 1002000 109800 221700 98270 1014000 198200 323600 2099000 1099000 452300 200500 1202000 591800 827700 2950000 305900 674100 430600 673400 161300 59900
2021-05-27 16316000 1384000 1348000 3290000 27737000 1795000 2879000 2406000 1942000 1208000 4975000 1644000 5240000 33237000 70080 543300 338100 879300 3784000 543000 347200 108500 2317000 1090000 35010 370400 191900 1382000 742300 315300 457800 469900 656400 459300 67380 969400 601300 560700 317500 111700 1003000 109800 221900 98520 1015000 198300 324000 2101000 1100000 452400 201300 1204000 592000 828500 2952000 306100 674500 431900 673800 161700 59970
2021-05-28 16385000 1388000 1354000 3304000 27981000 1801000 2889000 2408000 1949000 1214000 4983000 1647000 5253000 33264000 70170 543700 338200 879900 3786000 544100 347500 108600 2319000 1091000 35080 370500 192100 1383000 742900 315700 458400 470200 656600 459600 67460 971300 602100 561300 317600 111800 1004000 109800 222000 98710 1015000 198400 324300 2102000 1101000 452400 202000 1205000 592500 829100 2954000 306300 675000 433000 674000 162100 60030
2021-05-29 16447000 1392000 1360000 3320000 28223000 1806000 2896000 2411000 1958000 1220000 4991000 1650000 5266000 33290000 70210 544000 338400 880500 3787000 545100 347600 108700 2322000 1092000 35180 370800 192100 1385000 743500 315700 458800 470300 657000 460100 67560 973000 602800 561800 317600 111900 1005000 109900 222000 98890 1015000 198400 324600 2104000 1102000 452600 202600 1207000 593100 829600 2955000 306500 675400 434100 674300 162500 60090
2021-05-30 16479000 1396000 1366000 3338000 28458000 1811000 2903000 2412000 1963000 1223000 4999000 1653000 5279000 33314000 70210 544100 338500 881100 3788000 545400 347600 108700 2324000 1093000 35230 370800 192100 1385000 743700 315700 459300 470300 657100 460300 67560 973000 603500 562100 317600 112000 1005000 109900 222000 99030 1016000 198400 324900 2105000 1102000 452600 203100 1208000 593400 830100 2956000 306600 675700 435100 674300 162800 60160
2021-05-31 16508000 1400000 1371000 3353000 28690000 1816000 2915000 2412000 1963000 1228000 5006000 1655000 5290000 33338000 70300 544300 338500 881600 3790000 546000 347900 108800 2325000 1093000 35270 370900 192400 1386000 744100 316000 459700 470900 657300 460600 67670 974400 604100 562400 318000 112100 1007000 109900 222200 99170 1016000 198700 325100 2106000 1103000 452600 203600 1209000 593700 830600 2959000 306700 676100 436000 674400 163200 60220

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-25 to 2021-05-31

DateUKATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-05-24 4464900 641740 1049822 416727 469344 1658092 3659990 274413 3647520 91619 391181 354060 802346 4194672 1628922 2866181 845465 1075773 1058341 251773 388854 122652 687353
2021-05-25 4466000 642100 1052000 417000 470100 1659000 3666000 275300 3651000 91730 393500 354300 802600 4197000 1632000 2867000 845800 1076000 1066000 252100 389000 123000 688000
2021-05-26 4467000 642800 1054000 417500 471500 1660000 3673000 276200 3657000 91880 395700 355500 803200 4200000 1636000 2869000 846100 1077000 1069000 252600 389300 123400 689200
2021-05-27 4468000 643200 1056000 417800 472600 1661000 3679000 277100 3662000 92000 397700 356000 803800 4203000 1639000 2871000 846300 1077000 1072000 253000 389500 123700 689600
2021-05-28 4469000 643800 1058000 418000 473600 1661000 3684000 278100 3666000 92100 399700 356600 804400 4206000 1642000 2873000 846700 1078000 1074000 253300 389700 124200 690000
2021-05-29 4470000 644200 1060000 418200 475000 1662000 3690000 279000 3669000 92200 401600 357500 805000 4208000 1645000 2875000 847000 1078000 1074000 253700 389900 124500 690500
2021-05-30 4471000 644700 1062000 418400 475900 1663000 3693000 280000 3671000 92280 402800 358100 805600 4210000 1648000 2877000 847200 1079000 1075000 254000 390100 124700 690700
2021-05-31 4472000 644900 1063000 418700 476800 1663000 3696000 280900 3680000 92330 404400 358600 805900 4212000 1650000 2879000 847300 1079000 1076000 254100 390300 124900 691900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-25 to 2021-05-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-05-24 16120756 1368241 1335261 3249433 26948874 1781127 2843523 2397307 1925289 1184706 4952412 1637848 5194010 33143246 69701 542256 337335 877182 3778097 537791 345527 108186 2308881 1087538 34688 369758 191397 1376356 740564 314757 456044 467989 655729 458520 67071 958717 598733 558986 316754 111224 998176 109633 221165 97781 1013325 198043 322757 2096171 1097867 451280 198972 1198084 591365 826131 2944265 305225 673105 427982 672591 160354 59797
2021-05-25 16196000 1371000 1339000 3265000 27155000 1786000 2853000 2399000 1929000 1189000 4958000 1640000 5201000 33162000 69760 542400 337500 877600 3779000 538500 345800 108300 2311000 1088000 34740 369900 191600 1377000 741000 314800 456500 468300 655800 458700 67180 960400 599200 559400 317100 111300 999000 109700 221300 97900 1014000 198100 323000 2097000 1098000 451300 199400 1199000 591500 826600 2946000 305400 673300 428800 672900 160700 59870
2021-05-26 16268000 1374000 1343000 3280000 27375000 1790000 2862000 2402000 1936000 1193000 4962000 1642000 5209000 33176000 69850 542600 337600 878100 3780000 539500 346100 108400 2313000 1089000 34810 370100 191700 1378000 741700 315100 457100 468700 656100 458900 67350 962800 599800 559900 317300 111400 1000000 109800 221400 98090 1014000 198200 323300 2098000 1099000 451500 200000 1201000 591900 827300 2948000 305600 673600 429600 673300 161000 59920
2021-05-27 16340000 1377000 1349000 3296000 27587000 1794000 2869000 2404000 1938000 1198000 4966000 1645000 5216000 33192000 69930 542800 337800 878500 3781000 540500 346400 108500 2316000 1090000 34890 370200 191900 1379000 742500 315200 457600 468900 656400 459100 67510 964400 600400 560300 317500 111500 1001000 109900 221500 98250 1015000 198400 323600 2099000 1099000 451600 200600 1202000 592300 827800 2949000 305800 673900 430200 673600 161300 59990
2021-05-28 16415000 1380000 1356000 3311000 27792000 1799000 2876000 2406000 1943000 1203000 4970000 1648000 5223000 33211000 69990 543000 337900 879000 3782000 541200 346700 108500 2318000 1091000 34950 370400 192000 1381000 743200 315500 458100 469100 656600 459300 67640 965900 601000 560800 317600 111600 1002000 110000 221600 98390 1015000 198500 323900 2101000 1100000 451700 201000 1203000 592800 828400 2950000 306000 674200 430900 673800 161500 60050
2021-05-29 16480000 1383000 1362000 3327000 27999000 1803000 2881000 2409000 1950000 1207000 4974000 1650000 5231000 33226000 70050 543300 338000 879400 3782000 542200 346900 108600 2321000 1091000 35050 370500 192100 1382000 743900 315600 458600 469200 656900 459600 67790 967600 601600 561200 317700 111600 1002000 110000 221700 98520 1016000 198500 324000 2102000 1100000 451900 201600 1205000 593400 828800 2951000 306200 674500 431400 674200 161800 60100
2021-05-30 16513000 1386000 1368000 3343000 28202000 1806000 2886000 2410000 1955000 1211000 4978000 1653000 5240000 33237000 70090 543400 338000 879900 3783000 542800 347100 108700 2323000 1092000 35120 370700 192200 1383000 744600 315700 459100 469300 657200 459800 67910 968200 602100 561600 317800 111700 1003000 110100 221700 98650 1016000 198600 324200 2104000 1101000 452100 202200 1206000 593800 829200 2952000 306400 674700 431900 674400 162000 60150
2021-05-31 16538000 1389000 1372000 3357000 28395000 1810000 2893000 2412000 1957000 1216000 4982000 1655000 5248000 33252000 70180 543500 338100 880300 3784000 543400 347500 108800 2326000 1092000 35180 370800 192400 1384000 745200 315900 459500 469800 657400 459900 68060 970700 602800 562000 318000 111700 1005000 110100 221800 98770 1016000 199000 324600 2105000 1101000 452200 202600 1207000 594200 829900 2953000 306600 675000 432300 674500 162200 60210

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed