COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-06-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57046 210475 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20924 1362 37888 701 42653 2958 2181 8671 5772 34941 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 144 207 68 72 71 165 91 40 83 127 75 51 55 49 71 144 201 40 67 129 68 49 215 149 77 43
Last total 4490438 32074843 645152 1063499 418813 474433 1661780 3692908 282135 3682778 92642 5619133 404163 356397 804712 254870 4220304 1651780 2872868 849538 1077978 1068473 254045 389866 125576 695496
Last daily increment 3099 30339 337 1498 236 574 508 2987 908 4388 154 9575 1857 216 174 0 2483 2320 585 445 241 0 323 145 460 756
Last week 20141 196003 2569 10847 1287 3519 2347 25867 5855 24892 678 54916 9069 1476 1989 0 18477 17642 4418 3104 1445 1366 1559 690 1914 4377
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21294 147 51953 2609 3554 5428 1117 5635 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-06-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-14 -- --2021-05-012021-01-282021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2910-192021-05-2411-19
Peak daily increment 483 74847 8683 386009 12373 23864 16980 8725 10769 27989 17701 58966 239003 689 3736 2817 9262 42170 4984 2579 285 561 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10174 4802 1362 2129 21849 2491 6323 173 1472 12345 387 800
Days since peak 303 69 48 31 124 44 132 53 60 161 146 46 142 177 18 146 149 167 195 141 142 13 150 144 143 201 175 207 45 197 142 197 142 143 48 50 52 82 144 196 150 57 60 172 139 193 174 69 175 48 35 173 140 200 43 140 199 135 61 33 225 8 194
Last total 30124 16624480 1390979 1389357 3432422 28307832 1826527 2923823 2420659 1955469 1235467 5022881 1669231 5256516 33287438 70023 544045 338550 881454 3790943 543509 346380 49000 108668 2323724 1091246 35090 370515 192305 1382503 744213 315334 458703 471249 657297 459995 67818 963920 601017 562072 317755 111844 1003243 109962 221235 98276 1015665 198891 324262 2102765 1102556 452286 201650 1204598 593262 124191 828246 2954084 306295 675597 24202 435460 674480 161858 60374
Last daily increment 6 78926 1651 5011 25966 132788 4824 10687 6917 0 5166 9369 3614 7112 23010 110 640 75 4 1399 407 224 102 28 5940 245 55 55 293 404 517 3 437 978 183 101 38 972 129 171 42 15 2101 18 0 60 157 329 514 464 622 0 175 913 0 0 572 675 78 59 4 1224 60 571 230
Last week 61 349785 16707 44739 138321 938739 35306 57959 17937 18224 41491 54460 23676 44393 96968 204 1214 753 3116 9853 3486 584 178 359 10631 2515 336 449 567 4206 2516 225 1650 1792 1012 1117 524 3110 1602 2214 690 390 3743 182 0 349 1548 574 1013 4775 2976 0 1866 4663 1400 120 1251 5098 797 1515 62 4826 1092 1081 413
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1509-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --2021-01-01 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9218 7349 18368 92150 13616 22832 8380 4292 10928 12481 720125 3868 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1624 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 1433
Low between peaks 7 19229 2913 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4743 1435 6223 320 74 483 3185 179 72 31 130 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 422 764 232 993 9248 479 678 178

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-01 4490438 32074843 645152 1063499 418813 474433 1661780 3692908 282135 3682778 92642 5619133 404163 356397 804712 4220304 1651780 2872868 849538 1077978 1068473 254045 389866 125576 695496
2021-06-02 4493000 32091000 646300 1067000 419500 474400 1662000 3709000 283200 3689000 93000 5629000 406800 358200 805500 4226000 1656000 2876000 849700 1079000 1079000 254800 390200 126200 697300
2021-06-03 4496000 32116000 647000 1070000 420100 474800 1663000 3723000 284300 3695000 93220 5638000 409300 359400 806100 4231000 1659000 2878000 850100 1079000 1083000 255300 390600 126600 698600
2021-06-04 4499000 32146000 647800 1072000 420500 475200 1663000 3733000 285300 3701000 93410 5653000 411300 360400 806700 4235000 1663000 2879000 850500 1079000 1086000 255700 390700 127000 699600
2021-06-05 4502000 32159000 648400 1074000 420700 475500 1663000 3741000 286300 3702000 93490 5683000 413000 361300 807100 4240000 1666000 2880000 850900 1080000 1087000 256100 390800 127300 699900
2021-06-06 4505000 32168000 648900 1076000 420800 475700 1663000 3748000 287200 3703000 93680 5690000 414000 362100 807400 4243000 1669000 2881000 851300 1080000 1088000 256300 391000 127500 700000
2021-06-07 4508000 32175000 649200 1076000 421000 475700 1663000 3750000 288200 3713000 93740 5700000 414800 362400 807500 4245000 1671000 2881000 851700 1080000 1088000 256400 391000 127800 701200
2021-06-08 4510000 32202000 649400 1077000 421300 476300 1664000 3753000 289100 3718000 93870 5700000 416800 362500 807700 4247000 1673000 2881000 852100 1080000 1089000 256700 391200 128200 702400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-01 16624480 1390979 1389357 3432422 28307832 1826527 2923823 2420659 1955469 1235467 5022881 1669231 5256516 33287438 70023 544045 338550 881454 3790943 543509 346380 108668 2323724 1091246 35090 370515 192305 1382503 744213 315334 458703 471249 657297 459995 67818 963920 601017 562072 317755 111844 1003243 98276 1015665 198891 324262 2102765 1102556 201650 1204598 593262 828246 2954084 306295 675597 435460 674480 161858 60374
2021-06-02 16703000 1394000 1390000 3457000 28457000 1828000 2938000 2426000 1969000 1238000 5030000 1671000 5266000 33316000 70140 544300 338900 882000 3792000 545700 346800 108800 2328000 1092000 35180 370900 192600 1384000 744700 315900 459100 472000 658400 460800 67920 968700 601900 562700 318200 111900 1005000 98350 1016000 199200 324500 2104000 1104000 202100 1206000 593700 828600 2958000 306600 675900 436400 675600 162200 60410
2021-06-03 16772000 1400000 1394000 3479000 28642000 1831000 2950000 2431000 1974000 1243000 5037000 1672000 5282000 33376000 70230 544700 339100 882700 3793000 547400 347100 108900 2334000 1093000 35270 371100 192800 1384000 745100 316000 459900 472500 659100 461300 67980 972100 602500 563400 318500 112100 1006000 98660 1017000 199400 324900 2105000 1105000 202500 1207000 594000 829600 2961000 306900 676900 437700 676400 162600 60480
2021-06-04 16832000 1404000 1400000 3502000 28808000 1836000 2960000 2435000 1977000 1250000 5046000 1674000 5294000 33420000 70300 545000 339400 883300 3793000 548700 347400 108900 2338000 1094000 35330 371300 193000 1385000 745400 316300 460400 472800 659600 461700 68050 974500 602900 564000 318700 112200 1007000 98850 1017000 199600 325200 2105000 1107000 202900 1208000 594300 830200 2963000 307100 677500 438800 676900 162800 60550
2021-06-05 16903000 1407000 1405000 3525000 28963000 1841000 2967000 2440000 1983000 1256000 5054000 1677000 5305000 33456000 70310 545200 339500 883900 3794000 549800 347500 109000 2342000 1094000 35400 371400 193000 1386000 745600 316400 460900 472800 660000 462100 68100 976500 603300 564600 318700 112300 1007000 98990 1018000 199600 325500 2106000 1108000 203200 1209000 594400 830700 2964000 307200 678000 439700 677200 162900 60620
2021-06-06 16942000 1411000 1410000 3548000 29115000 1846000 2976000 2443000 1986000 1262000 5062000 1679000 5316000 33490000 70320 545200 339600 884400 3795000 550700 347600 109100 2346000 1095000 35500 371600 193000 1387000 745900 316400 461300 472900 660500 462600 68150 978200 603700 564800 318700 112400 1008000 99120 1018000 199600 325700 2107000 1109000 203400 1209000 594400 831100 2965000 307400 678500 440600 677600 163000 60680
2021-06-07 16966000 1414000 1414000 3571000 29262000 1851000 2987000 2445000 1990000 1267000 5070000 1684000 5326000 33519000 70340 545300 339600 884900 3796000 551200 347600 109100 2350000 1095000 35520 371600 193100 1387000 745900 316800 461700 473100 660600 462800 68150 979400 603700 565000 319100 112400 1008000 99210 1018000 199600 325900 2107000 1110000 203500 1209000 594500 831400 2965000 307400 678900 441500 677900 163100 60750
2021-06-08 17038000 1417000 1418000 3595000 29408000 1855000 2997000 2449000 1991000 1272000 5078000 1686000 5335000 33548000 70430 545800 339700 885400 3796000 551800 347800 109100 2353000 1096000 35560 371700 193300 1388000 746000 316800 462000 473900 660700 462900 68180 980000 603800 565400 319200 112500 1010000 99290 1018000 199900 326100 2107000 1111000 203800 1210000 594500 831800 2967000 307500 679300 442300 678100 163500 60810

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-01 4490438 32074843 645152 1063499 418813 474433 1661780 3692908 282135 3682778 92642 5619133 404163 356397 804712 4220304 1651780 2872868 849538 1077978 1068473 254045 389866 125576 695496
2021-06-02 4493000 32100000 645600 1065000 419100 474900 1662000 3696000 283100 3687000 92790 5625000 405900 356900 804900 4223000 1654000 2874000 850000 1078000 1069000 254400 390000 126000 696000
2021-06-03 4494000 32124000 646100 1068000 419300 475600 1663000 3701000 284100 3692000 92880 5637000 407900 357400 805400 4225000 1656000 2874000 850300 1079000 1071000 254600 390200 126400 696600
2021-06-04 4496000 32144000 646500 1069000 419500 476200 1663000 3705000 285000 3697000 92970 5648000 409700 357800 805700 4226000 1659000 2875000 850700 1079000 1072000 254800 390300 126700 697100
2021-06-05 4497000 32155000 646900 1071000 419600 476900 1663000 3707000 286000 3699000 93000 5665000 411300 358200 806000 4228000 1661000 2876000 851000 1079000 1072000 255000 390400 126900 697300
2021-06-06 4499000 32164000 647200 1072000 419700 477300 1664000 3711000 286900 3702000 93120 5676000 412400 358600 806200 4230000 1664000 2876000 851300 1079000 1073000 255100 390500 127200 697500
2021-06-07 4501000 32169000 647400 1073000 419900 477700 1664000 3713000 287800 3709000 93180 5683000 413800 358900 806500 4231000 1666000 2877000 851600 1079000 1074000 255200 390600 127400 698200
2021-06-08 4503000 32187000 647600 1075000 420100 478300 1664000 3715000 288800 3714000 93260 5691000 415800 359000 806600 4232000 1668000 2877000 851900 1080000 1078000 255400 390700 127800 699100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-02 to 2021-06-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-01 16624480 1390979 1389357 3432422 28307832 1826527 2923823 2420659 1955469 1235467 5022881 1669231 5256516 33287438 70023 544045 338550 881454 3790943 543509 346380 108668 2323724 1091246 35090 370515 192305 1382503 744213 315334 458703 471249 657297 459995 67818 963920 601017 562072 317755 111844 1003243 98276 1015665 198891 324262 2102765 1102556 201650 1204598 593262 828246 2954084 306295 675597 435460 674480 161858 60374
2021-06-02 16697000 1393000 1395000 3455000 28440000 1831000 2933000 2425000 1960000 1240000 5029000 1673000 5264000 33304000 70070 544300 338700 881800 3792000 544100 346500 108700 2327000 1092000 35140 370600 192500 1383000 744600 315600 459100 471600 657500 460100 67890 964900 601300 562400 317900 111900 1004000 98350 1016000 199000 324500 2103000 1103000 201900 1205000 593500 828700 2955000 306400 675800 436200 674700 162200 60460
2021-06-03 16766000 1396000 1402000 3474000 28570000 1836000 2939000 2427000 1963000 1245000 5033000 1676000 5273000 33321000 70130 544600 338800 882200 3792000 544900 346700 108800 2329000 1092000 35190 370700 192600 1384000 745200 315700 459500 471900 657700 460300 67960 966100 601600 562900 318100 111900 1005000 98470 1016000 199100 324900 2104000 1104000 202300 1207000 593900 829400 2957000 306600 676200 436900 675000 162400 60530
2021-06-04 16822000 1398000 1410000 3493000 28694000 1841000 2945000 2430000 1965000 1250000 5037000 1679000 5281000 33336000 70190 544800 338900 882600 3793000 545600 346900 108900 2331000 1093000 35240 370800 192800 1384000 745700 315900 460000 472100 657900 460500 68030 967000 601900 563300 318200 112000 1006000 98560 1017000 199300 325200 2105000 1104000 202600 1207000 594300 829900 2958000 306800 676500 437500 675200 162600 60600
2021-06-05 16891000 1400000 1417000 3511000 28816000 1846000 2949000 2432000 1970000 1255000 5041000 1682000 5289000 33349000 70210 544900 339000 883100 3793000 546100 347000 109000 2333000 1094000 35290 370900 192900 1385000 746100 316000 460300 472100 658000 460700 68080 967600 602200 563700 318300 112000 1006000 98640 1017000 199300 325400 2106000 1104000 203000 1208000 594600 830400 2958000 306900 676800 437900 675300 162700 60650
2021-06-06 16934000 1402000 1423000 3530000 28935000 1851000 2955000 2434000 1973000 1259000 5046000 1685000 5297000 33360000 70250 544900 339000 883500 3793000 546600 347200 109000 2335000 1094000 35370 371000 192900 1386000 746700 316100 460600 472200 658300 460900 68140 968200 602500 564100 318400 112100 1006000 98710 1017000 199300 325600 2106000 1105000 203200 1209000 594800 830800 2959000 307100 677000 438400 675500 162800 60690
2021-06-07 16967000 1404000 1428000 3547000 29044000 1856000 2961000 2435000 1976000 1263000 5049000 1689000 5306000 33372000 70300 545200 339100 884000 3794000 546900 347300 109100 2337000 1095000 35410 371100 193100 1386000 747100 316400 461000 472400 658400 461000 68190 969100 602800 564500 318600 112100 1008000 98780 1017000 199500 325900 2107000 1105000 203500 1210000 594900 831200 2960000 307200 677300 438800 675700 163000 60750
2021-06-08 17044000 1406000 1433000 3567000 29155000 1860000 2968000 2438000 1980000 1266000 5053000 1691000 5314000 33385000 70360 545500 339200 884400 3794000 547600 347500 109200 2339000 1095000 35450 371200 193300 1387000 747600 316500 461400 472900 658600 461100 68240 969800 603100 564900 318800 112200 1009000 98850 1018000 199600 326100 2108000 1105000 203900 1210000 595300 831600 2961000 307300 677500 439300 675900 163200 60810

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed