COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-06-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57049 210470 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37890 701 42653 2958 2181 8671 5772 34943 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 147 210 71 75 74 168 94 43 86 130 78 54 58 52 74 147 204 43 70 132 71 52 218 152 80 46
Last total 4506018 32181990 646167 1068406 419337 476102 1663040 3704685 285044 3697981 93038 5641296 407857 357197 805571 263769 4227719 1659399 2874411 851461 1078563 1078062 254973 390223 126521 697292
Last daily increment 6140 28395 333 1449 157 560 432 2993 927 4969 125 6770 1106 88 269 517 2556 2382 319 430 225 1069 281 94 303 491
Last week 25073 183151 1960 8643 1116 2982 2105 20013 5610 29323 794 40943 7462 1242 1539 8899 14664 14700 3040 3248 1137 9589 1480 783 1866 4269
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2910-1803-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53552 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23893 3419 21295 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1083 5636 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 233 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-06-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-14 -- --2021-05-052021-01-282021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74846 8683 389510 12373 23864 16980 8725 10769 27995 17701 58965 239056 689 3749 2817 9262 42166 4984 2579 285 564 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 2129 21848 2491 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 306 72 51 30 127 47 135 56 63 164 149 49 145 180 21 149 152 170 198 144 145 16 153 147 146 204 178 210 48 200 145 200 145 146 51 53 55 85 147 199 153 60 63 175 142 196 177 72 178 51 38 176 143 203 46 143 202 138 64 39 228 154 197
Last total 30157 16841408 1397370 1411346 3518046 28574350 1843612 2954309 2429631 1976166 1255337 5049210 1686041 5276468 33343023 70177 545585 339233 883037 3793816 545697 346708 49068 108779 2326850 1092717 35217 370903 192795 1384278 746135 316059 460040 472585 657813 460339 68057 965515 601642 563773 318189 112260 1004669 110151 221235 98457 1016292 199210 325392 2104436 1104001 453186 202680 1209492 593727 124261 829047 2961257 306871 676300 24230 437734 675150 162232 60628
Last daily increment 16 37936 2034 8245 30000 0 6486 9209 2809 10734 7438 8820 5668 6169 16586 61 557 247 346 883 768 144 27 48 0 484 65 99 165 633 445 292 509 363 179 145 72 550 256 632 141 131 680 53 0 61 73 141 361 771 621 0 433 613 99 19 218 2086 202 259 12 726 211 121 79
Last week 61 369808 12997 41749 154985 679550 33686 61091 18128 28611 38755 53597 26971 40490 88025 264 2180 849 2579 5138 3363 552 170 235 9066 2199 328 535 783 3303 2797 728 1774 2314 847 811 406 2567 1029 2259 782 475 3527 236 0 267 1224 648 1644 3483 2444 900 1675 3521 815 99 1373 8396 875 1135 52 3498 1147 945 484
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1509-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9218 7349 18367 92146 13617 22832 8380 4292 10930 12481 720123 3868 153 3557 9151 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19228 2913 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 1435 6223 304 74 483 3185 179 72 31 128 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-04 4506018 32181990 646167 1068406 419337 476102 1663040 3704685 285044 3697981 93038 5641296 407857 357197 805571 263769 4227719 1659399 2874411 851461 1078563 1078062 254973 390223 126521 697292
2021-06-05 4512000 32215000 647200 1072000 420000 476900 1665000 3719000 286000 3700000 93280 5648000 410800 358400 806600 264100 4235000 1666000 2877000 851700 1079000 1082000 255600 390400 127100 698800
2021-06-06 4519000 32241000 647900 1074000 420400 477200 1665000 3728000 287100 3701000 93540 5655000 412400 359200 807300 264500 4239000 1670000 2878000 852000 1079000 1084000 255800 390700 127400 699300
2021-06-07 4525000 32260000 648300 1075000 420800 477500 1666000 3733000 288100 3711000 93650 5655000 413700 359500 807600 264700 4241000 1673000 2879000 852200 1079000 1086000 256000 390800 127700 700900
2021-06-08 4531000 32296000 648800 1077000 421300 478200 1667000 3737000 289000 3715000 93800 5655000 415900 359600 807800 265000 4244000 1676000 2880000 852600 1080000 1089000 256300 391000 128200 702200
2021-06-09 4537000 32329000 649400 1079000 421700 478700 1667000 3744000 289900 3720000 93980 5655000 417500 360300 808200 265200 4248000 1680000 2882000 853100 1080000 1090000 256700 391200 128600 703100
2021-06-10 4543000 32362000 649800 1081000 422000 479200 1667000 3748000 290800 3725000 94110 5659000 418600 360500 808600 265400 4250000 1683000 2882000 853800 1080000 1095000 257000 391300 128900 703600
2021-06-11 4549000 32391000 650100 1082000 422100 479600 1668000 3753000 291700 3730000 94240 5674000 419900 360700 808800 265700 4253000 1685000 2883000 854200 1080000 1096000 257300 391400 129200 704200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-04 16841408 1397370 1411346 3518046 28574350 1843612 2954309 2429631 1976166 1255337 5049210 1686041 5276468 33343023 70177 545585 339233 883037 3793816 545697 346708 108779 2326850 1092717 35217 370903 192795 1384278 746135 316059 460040 472585 657813 460339 68057 965515 601642 563773 318189 112260 1004669 110151 98457 1016292 199210 325392 2104436 1104001 453186 202680 1209492 593727 829047 2961257 306871 676300 437734 675150 162232 60628
2021-06-05 16923000 1399000 1421000 3544000 28774000 1850000 2965000 2430000 1980000 1259000 5057000 1687000 5284000 33361000 70230 547300 339500 883200 3795000 547200 347000 109300 2328000 1094000 35300 371000 192900 1386000 747200 316200 460600 472900 658600 460600 68250 968800 602400 564300 318500 112300 1006000 110300 98520 1017000 199400 325600 2107000 1105000 453300 203700 1213000 594500 829300 2963000 307100 676600 438600 675900 162400 60700
2021-06-06 16963000 1401000 1429000 3569000 28904000 1855000 2975000 2431000 1983000 1264000 5065000 1687000 5294000 33403000 70270 548300 339600 883400 3796000 548100 347200 109500 2329000 1095000 35410 371000 193000 1387000 747800 316300 461300 473000 659100 460800 68350 970100 602800 564700 318600 112400 1007000 110300 98720 1017000 199500 325800 2108000 1106000 453300 204300 1215000 594900 830200 2965000 307300 677300 439900 676300 162800 60750
2021-06-07 16991000 1402000 1436000 3592000 28990000 1861000 2987000 2431000 1988000 1269000 5073000 1690000 5303000 33434000 70320 549000 339700 883700 3796000 548700 347400 109700 2330000 1095000 35450 371000 193100 1387000 748100 316800 461900 473300 659300 460800 68430 971400 603000 565100 318900 112500 1007000 110400 98860 1018000 199600 326000 2109000 1107000 453300 204800 1216000 595200 830800 2967000 307400 677800 440900 676700 163100 60820
2021-06-08 17063000 1404000 1442000 3611000 29094000 1867000 2998000 2435000 1989000 1273000 5081000 1692000 5311000 33458000 70420 549900 339800 883900 3797000 549300 347600 109900 2331000 1096000 35500 371100 193400 1388000 748700 316800 462500 474200 659500 460900 68510 972100 603200 565600 319100 112500 1009000 110400 98950 1018000 199900 326300 2110000 1108000 453300 205200 1218000 595400 831200 2968000 307500 678200 441800 676900 163300 60890
2021-06-09 17148000 1405000 1448000 3629000 29203000 1873000 3009000 2438000 1998000 1278000 5088000 1696000 5319000 33481000 70470 550600 340000 884200 3798000 550100 347800 110000 2333000 1097000 35530 371200 193500 1389000 749100 317100 463000 474800 659800 461100 68610 973300 603600 566000 319300 112600 1010000 110500 99040 1019000 200000 326500 2110000 1109000 454200 205700 1219000 595700 831600 2970000 307700 678500 442700 677300 163500 60950
2021-06-10 17222000 1407000 1457000 3646000 29286000 1878000 3018000 2441000 1999000 1284000 5096000 1701000 5326000 33501000 70520 551200 340200 884400 3799000 550800 347900 110100 2334000 1098000 35570 371200 193700 1389000 749900 317100 463500 475100 660000 461200 68710 973700 603900 566500 319400 112700 1010000 110500 99120 1019000 200100 326700 2111000 1109000 454200 206100 1220000 595800 831900 2971000 307900 678800 443500 677500 163700 61020
2021-06-11 17264000 1409000 1464000 3662000 29338000 1884000 3026000 2443000 2006000 1291000 5105000 1705000 5334000 33520000 70580 551600 340400 884700 3800000 551600 348000 110200 2334000 1099000 35630 371300 193800 1390000 750400 317500 463900 475400 660200 461300 68790 974500 604100 566900 319500 112800 1011000 110600 99180 1019000 200200 326900 2112000 1110000 454200 206400 1221000 595900 832200 2973000 308000 679100 444300 677800 163900 61090

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-04 4506018 32181990 646167 1068406 419337 476102 1663040 3704685 285044 3697981 93038 5641296 407857 357197 805571 263769 4227719 1659399 2874411 851461 1078563 1078062 254973 390223 126521 697292
2021-06-05 4510000 32204000 646500 1070000 419400 476700 1664000 3708000 286000 3700000 93100 5656000 409000 357500 805900 265200 4230000 1662000 2875000 851900 1079000 1079000 255200 390300 126700 697600
2021-06-06 4512000 32213000 646900 1071000 419500 476900 1664000 3711000 286900 3702000 93200 5676000 410000 357800 806200 266300 4232000 1664000 2875000 852200 1079000 1080000 255400 390400 127000 697800
2021-06-07 4514000 32221000 647100 1072000 419700 477100 1664000 3713000 287800 3709000 93250 5688000 411100 358000 806300 267300 4233000 1666000 2876000 852400 1079000 1080000 255400 390500 127200 698600
2021-06-08 4516000 32237000 647300 1074000 419900 477700 1665000 3715000 288800 3713000 93320 5696000 412800 358100 806400 268200 4234000 1668000 2876000 852700 1079000 1081000 255600 390600 127500 699300
2021-06-09 4518000 32252000 647700 1075000 420100 478100 1665000 3719000 289700 3718000 93420 5704000 414500 358500 806600 269300 4236000 1670000 2877000 853100 1079000 1083000 255800 390800 127800 699900
2021-06-10 4521000 32267000 648100 1077000 420200 478600 1665000 3722000 290600 3723000 93510 5713000 416000 358900 806900 270300 4238000 1672000 2878000 853400 1080000 1085000 256000 390900 128200 700400
2021-06-11 4523000 32282000 648500 1079000 420300 479000 1666000 3726000 291500 3728000 93600 5723000 417700 359200 807200 271200 4240000 1675000 2878000 853700 1080000 1086000 256200 391000 128500 700900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-04 16841408 1397370 1411346 3518046 28574350 1843612 2954309 2429631 1976166 1255337 5049210 1686041 5276468 33343023 70177 545585 339233 883037 3793816 545697 346708 108779 2326850 1092717 35217 370903 192795 1384278 746135 316059 460040 472585 657813 460339 68057 965515 601642 563773 318189 112260 1004669 110151 98457 1016292 199210 325392 2104436 1104001 453186 202680 1209492 593727 829047 2961257 306871 676300 437734 675150 162232 60628
2021-06-05 16913000 1399000 1420000 3544000 28659000 1850000 2960000 2432000 1982000 1261000 5056000 1691000 5283000 33357000 70200 546000 339400 883400 3794000 546300 346800 108900 2328000 1093000 35280 371000 192900 1385000 746700 316100 460400 472700 658000 460400 68120 966100 601900 564300 318300 112300 1005000 110200 98520 1016000 199200 325600 2105000 1105000 453300 203100 1210000 593900 829300 2962000 307000 676600 438400 675300 162300 60690
2021-06-06 16951000 1401000 1426000 3566000 28753000 1855000 2966000 2434000 1984000 1266000 5060000 1693000 5291000 33374000 70220 546200 339400 883700 3795000 546800 346800 109000 2330000 1094000 35350 371000 192900 1385000 747200 316200 460800 472800 658200 460600 68160 966600 602100 564700 318400 112400 1005000 110200 98590 1017000 199200 325800 2106000 1105000 453300 203300 1211000 594100 829700 2963000 307200 676900 438900 675400 162500 60750
2021-06-07 16977000 1402000 1432000 3588000 28840000 1860000 2973000 2435000 1988000 1270000 5064000 1697000 5298000 33388000 70250 546400 339500 884100 3795000 547200 346900 109000 2332000 1094000 35390 371100 193100 1386000 747500 316400 461100 473000 658300 460700 68180 967200 602200 565100 318600 112400 1006000 110300 98650 1017000 199300 326000 2106000 1105000 453400 203600 1212000 594200 830000 2964000 307300 677200 439300 675700 162600 60800
2021-06-08 17048000 1404000 1437000 3610000 28929000 1865000 2980000 2438000 1990000 1274000 5068000 1700000 5306000 33401000 70310 546700 339600 884500 3796000 547600 347000 109100 2334000 1095000 35430 371200 193200 1386000 747900 316500 461400 473400 658400 460700 68210 967700 602300 565500 318800 112500 1007000 110300 98700 1017000 199500 326200 2107000 1106000 453400 203800 1213000 594300 830400 2965000 307400 677400 439800 675700 162800 60880
2021-06-09 17127000 1406000 1441000 3633000 29013000 1870000 2987000 2441000 1996000 1278000 5071000 1704000 5313000 33413000 70350 546900 339700 884900 3796000 548300 347100 109100 2336000 1095000 35470 371300 193400 1386000 748300 316700 461700 473800 658600 460800 68250 968600 602600 565900 318900 112500 1007000 110400 98740 1018000 199600 326400 2107000 1106000 453900 204100 1213000 594500 830700 2966000 307500 677600 440200 676000 162900 60940
2021-06-10 17198000 1407000 1448000 3655000 29099000 1875000 2993000 2444000 1998000 1282000 5075000 1708000 5320000 33425000 70390 547100 339800 885300 3797000 549100 347200 109200 2338000 1096000 35520 371400 193500 1387000 749000 316800 462100 474000 658800 461000 68300 969500 602800 566300 319100 112500 1008000 110400 98790 1018000 199700 326700 2108000 1107000 454000 204500 1214000 594700 831000 2967000 307700 677800 440600 676300 163100 61000
2021-06-11 17252000 1409000 1456000 3678000 29181000 1881000 2999000 2446000 2001000 1287000 5079000 1711000 5329000 33437000 70440 547300 340000 885700 3797000 549800 347400 109200 2339000 1097000 35560 371500 193700 1387000 749400 317000 462400 474200 659000 461200 68340 970400 603000 566800 319300 112600 1009000 110400 98830 1018000 199900 326900 2109000 1107000 454000 204800 1215000 595000 831300 2968000 307800 678000 441000 676500 163300 61060

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed