COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-11


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-06-11

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57049 210470 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37890 701 42653 2958 2181 8671 5772 34944 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 154 217 78 82 81 175 101 50 93 137 85 61 65 59 81 154 211 50 77 139 78 59 225 159 87 53
Last total 4550944 32335443 648187 1074988 420213 478203 1664839 3720811 289122 3733600 93660 5671864 413954 358379 806790 266058 4241760 1670498 2877007 855951 1079530 1083456 256224 390893 127874 700051
Last daily increment 7958 19058 216 784 123 234 190 2194 418 4142 47 3871 784 134 199 319 1892 1377 340 519 103 727 121 84 198 354
Last week 39275 133036 1749 5114 787 1697 1476 13877 3486 35619 502 23914 5165 971 919 1873 11607 8978 2183 3917 788 5394 1006 553 1185 2759
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53552 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23894 3419 21296 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1117 5636 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-06-11

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-04-142021-06-04 --2021-05-052021-01-282021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-04-192021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 8683 7436 387048 12373 23865 16980 8725 10769 27995 17701 58965 239058 689 3852 2817 9262 42167 4984 2579 285 618 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 2129 21848 2491 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 313 58 7 37 134 54 142 63 70 171 156 56 152 187 28 156 159 177 205 151 152 23 160 154 153 211 185 217 55 207 152 207 152 153 58 60 62 92 154 206 160 67 70 182 149 203 184 79 185 58 45 183 150 210 53 150 209 145 71 46 235 161 204
Last total 30234 17296118 1407304 1461419 3694707 29359155 1894025 3013078 2448820 1998056 1300349 5120578 1730106 5319359 33437746 70360 547323 340688 885834 3801198 549941 347167 49158 109069 2329851 1095500 35595 371486 193515 1386947 748654 316886 461938 474962 658681 461097 68487 967734 602985 567134 319115 112761 1007698 110386 221235 98710 1018292 199760 327140 2108418 1106411 453888 204587 1212529 594805 124343 834321 2976183 308138 677530 24299 441946 676075 162939 61114
Last daily increment 6 85149 1398 7942 29570 84332 8083 9966 3282 2799 6662 12361 8020 6261 13450 63 188 389 422 1248 930 31 7 38 0 432 73 112 118 406 395 229 230 228 120 113 39 329 159 614 236 71 425 35 0 42 273 124 262 681 347 0 296 374 146 8 4375 1297 180 105 7 637 104 94 102
Last week 61 388693 8585 41153 147690 549816 43819 52327 17118 17665 38076 62357 38615 36765 80541 183 1738 1257 2520 6307 3515 459 90 225 0 2438 314 489 720 2126 2100 827 1535 2377 652 626 333 1805 1049 2878 926 501 3029 208 0 253 1429 550 1748 3142 2031 702 1592 2635 857 82 5274 13788 1072 944 69 3415 925 707 486
Previous peak date03-2807-292021-01-0306-062021-01-1509-15 --11-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 48654 9218 7349 18367 92153 13617 22832 8379 4292 10930 12481 720123 3867 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2171 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 2913 1343 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 1435 6223 328 74 483 3185 179 72 31 118 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 993 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-11 4550944 32335443 648187 1074988 420213 478203 1664839 3720811 289122 3733600 93660 5671864 413954 358379 806790 266058 4241760 1670498 2877007 855951 1079530 1083456 256224 390893 127874 700051
2021-06-12 4557000 32404000 648300 1079000 420600 479300 1666000 3731000 289600 3734000 93910 5711000 416800 359100 807100 266400 4247000 1677000 2879000 856100 1080000 1086000 256800 391100 128600 701200
2021-06-13 4560000 32443000 648500 1081000 420800 479900 1666000 3736000 290200 3734000 94090 5727000 418200 359600 807400 266900 4251000 1680000 2880000 856500 1080000 1087000 257100 391200 129000 701800
2021-06-14 4565000 32477000 648500 1082000 421100 480200 1667000 3739000 290700 3741000 94180 5739000 419400 359700 807400 267400 4253000 1683000 2880000 856800 1081000 1088000 257200 391300 129300 703100
2021-06-15 4569000 32518000 648600 1083000 421300 480700 1667000 3742000 291200 3744000 94330 5766000 421200 359900 807600 267800 4255000 1685000 2880000 857200 1081000 1090000 257400 391400 129600 704000
2021-06-16 4574000 32564000 648700 1085000 421500 481100 1668000 3746000 291700 3747000 94430 5792000 422400 360100 807700 268200 4258000 1687000 2881000 857900 1081000 1092000 257700 391500 129900 704500
2021-06-17 4580000 32605000 648800 1086000 421600 481400 1668000 3750000 292100 3756000 94510 5810000 423100 360300 807900 268500 4260000 1689000 2881000 858700 1081000 1095000 257900 391700 130100 705200
2021-06-18 4585000 32623000 649000 1087000 421800 481800 1668000 3754000 292600 3761000 94590 5810000 424000 360500 808100 268900 4262000 1691000 2882000 859100 1081000 1095000 258100 391700 130400 705600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-11 17296118 1407304 1461419 3694707 29359155 1894025 3013078 2448820 1998056 1300349 5120578 1730106 5319359 33437746 547323 340688 885834 3801198 549941 347167 109069 1095500 35595 371486 193515 1386947 748654 316886 461938 474962 658681 461097 68487 967734 602985 567134 319115 112761 1007698 110386 98710 1018292 199760 327140 2108418 1106411 453888 204587 1212529 594805 834321 2976183 308138 677530 441946 676075 162939 61114
2021-06-12 17338000 1409000 1468000 3735000 29452000 1895000 3022000 2450000 2007000 1307000 5130000 1730000 5329000 33452000 547500 340700 886300 3802000 550800 347300 109200 1096000 35640 371500 193600 1388000 749400 316900 462800 475200 659000 461500 68650 969500 603200 567700 319100 112800 1008000 110500 98720 1019000 199900 327400 2109000 1107000 454300 205100 1213000 595200 836100 2978000 308300 677700 442700 676500 163200 61170
2021-06-13 17392000 1414000 1474000 3767000 29560000 1898000 3033000 2452000 2009000 1311000 5139000 1731000 5337000 33481000 547500 340800 887000 3803000 551400 347400 109300 1097000 35710 371600 193700 1389000 749800 316900 463000 475300 659200 461700 68780 970300 603300 568000 319200 112900 1009000 110500 98760 1019000 199900 327500 2110000 1107000 454300 205500 1213000 595600 838000 2981000 308400 678300 443800 676700 163300 61230
2021-06-14 17427000 1417000 1480000 3791000 29659000 1903000 3043000 2452000 2012000 1316000 5149000 1733000 5344000 33503000 548100 340800 887600 3804000 551800 347500 109400 1097000 35740 371600 193900 1389000 750300 317200 463300 475900 659200 461900 68840 971200 603400 568500 319600 113000 1010000 110500 98780 1019000 200100 327600 2110000 1107000 454300 205700 1214000 595800 840100 2983000 308500 678700 444800 677100 163600 61300
2021-06-15 17488000 1420000 1485000 3813000 29751000 1908000 3052000 2456000 2014000 1321000 5159000 1735000 5353000 33521000 548400 341000 888100 3805000 552400 347600 109400 1098000 35770 371700 194000 1390000 750700 317300 463800 476200 659400 462000 68900 971500 603400 568900 319700 113000 1011000 110600 98800 1020000 200200 327800 2111000 1108000 454300 206000 1214000 595800 842000 2986000 308700 679000 445500 677300 163800 61370
2021-06-16 17559000 1422000 1490000 3837000 29843000 1913000 3061000 2459000 2019000 1327000 5169000 1741000 5360000 33538000 548700 341200 888500 3806000 553200 347700 109400 1099000 35810 371800 194200 1390000 751100 317700 464400 476900 659500 462100 68980 972200 603500 569300 319800 113100 1011000 110600 98810 1020000 200300 328000 2111000 1108000 454300 206300 1214000 596100 843900 2988000 308800 679200 446300 677500 164000 61430
2021-06-17 17635000 1424000 1498000 3866000 29933000 1920000 3069000 2462000 2023000 1332000 5178000 1749000 5368000 33553000 549000 341400 889000 3807000 553700 347800 109500 1100000 35850 371800 194300 1391000 751600 317800 464800 477300 659600 462200 69060 972600 603600 569800 320000 113200 1012000 110700 98820 1020000 200400 328300 2112000 1108000 454300 206600 1215000 596200 845800 2990000 308900 679400 447000 677700 164100 61500
2021-06-18 17710000 1426000 1505000 3895000 30022000 1927000 3078000 2465000 2027000 1338000 5188000 1755000 5374000 33567000 549200 341800 889400 3808000 554500 347900 109500 1100000 35910 372000 194400 1391000 752000 318100 465000 477500 659700 462300 69110 973100 603700 570300 320200 113200 1012000 110700 98840 1020000 200500 328500 2112000 1109000 454300 206900 1215000 596300 847700 2992000 309100 679600 447700 677800 164200 61570

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-06-11 4550944 32335443 648187 1074988 420213 478203 1664839 3720811 289122 3733600 93660 5671864 413954 358379 806790 266058 4241760 1670498 2877007 855951 1079530 1083456 256224 390893 127874 700051
2021-06-12 4556000 32354000 648400 1076000 420300 478600 1665000 3723000 289700 3737000 93740 5683000 414800 358600 807000 266400 4244000 1672000 2877000 856400 1080000 1084000 256400 391000 128000 700300
2021-06-13 4559000 32361000 648700 1077000 420300 478800 1665000 3726000 290400 3739000 93800 5691000 415500 358800 807100 266800 4245000 1674000 2878000 856800 1080000 1084000 256600 391100 128200 700400
2021-06-14 4563000 32369000 648900 1078000 420500 479000 1665000 3726000 291000 3745000 93840 5697000 416400 359000 807200 267200 4246000 1675000 2878000 857100 1080000 1084000 256600 391100 128400 701000
2021-06-15 4567000 32381000 649100 1079000 420600 479300 1666000 3727000 291700 3750000 93900 5705000 417700 359100 807200 267600 4247000 1677000 2878000 857400 1080000 1085000 256800 391200 128600 701500
2021-06-16 4572000 32398000 649300 1080000 420700 479700 1666000 3729000 292300 3754000 93960 5713000 418900 359200 807300 267900 4248000 1678000 2879000 857900 1080000 1086000 257000 391400 128800 701800
2021-06-17 4576000 32413000 649500 1081000 420800 480100 1666000 3731000 292900 3760000 94000 5721000 420000 359500 807500 268300 4249000 1680000 2879000 858300 1080000 1088000 257100 391500 129000 702400
2021-06-18 4580000 32422000 649800 1083000 421000 480500 1667000 3733000 293600 3765000 94060 5727000 421200 359600 807700 268600 4250000 1682000 2879000 858600 1081000 1088000 257300 391600 129300 702700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-12 to 2021-06-18

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-06-11 17296118 1407304 1461419 3694707 29359155 1894025 3013078 2448820 1998056 1300349 5120578 1730106 5319359 33437746 547323 340688 885834 3801198 549941 347167 109069 1095500 35595 371486 193515 1386947 748654 316886 461938 474962 658681 461097 68487 967734 602985 567134 319115 112761 1007698 110386 98710 1018292 199760 327140 2108418 1106411 453888 204587 1212529 594805 834321 2976183 308138 677530 441946 676075 162939 61114
2021-06-12 17369000 1409000 1469000 3725000 29425000 1901000 3019000 2451000 2002000 1307000 5129000 1736000 5326000 33451000 547400 340900 886200 3802000 550600 347200 109100 1096000 35650 371500 193600 1387000 749000 316900 462200 475100 658800 461200 68540 968100 603100 567700 319200 112800 1008000 110400 98750 1019000 199800 327300 2109000 1107000 453900 204900 1213000 595000 835700 2978000 308300 677700 442500 676100 163100 61180
2021-06-13 17411000 1410000 1476000 3750000 29475000 1906000 3023000 2453000 2003000 1312000 5133000 1740000 5332000 33462000 547400 340900 886500 3802000 550900 347200 109200 1096000 35720 371600 193600 1387000 749300 317000 462400 475200 658900 461300 68590 968400 603200 568100 319300 112800 1008000 110400 98790 1019000 199800 327400 2109000 1107000 454100 205100 1213000 595300 836100 2978000 308400 677900 443000 676200 163200 61230
2021-06-14 17442000 1411000 1482000 3775000 29524000 1912000 3028000 2455000 2005000 1317000 5138000 1744000 5338000 33471000 547600 341000 886800 3803000 551200 347300 109200 1097000 35740 371600 193800 1388000 749600 317100 462700 475500 658900 461400 68610 968900 603300 568500 319500 112900 1009000 110500 98820 1019000 199900 327600 2110000 1107000 454200 205300 1213000 595400 836500 2979000 308500 678100 443400 676400 163300 61290
2021-06-15 17496000 1412000 1487000 3798000 29573000 1917000 3033000 2458000 2007000 1322000 5142000 1748000 5344000 33480000 547800 341100 887200 3803000 551700 347400 109300 1097000 35780 371700 193900 1388000 749900 317200 462900 475700 659000 461400 68640 969100 603300 568900 319600 112900 1009000 110500 98850 1019000 200000 327900 2110000 1107000 454300 205600 1214000 595500 836900 2980000 308700 678300 443700 676500 163500 61350
2021-06-16 17567000 1414000 1492000 3822000 29625000 1923000 3040000 2460000 2012000 1327000 5147000 1753000 5350000 33488000 547900 341200 887600 3803000 552200 347500 109300 1098000 35820 371800 194000 1388000 750200 317500 463200 476100 659100 461500 68670 969600 603400 569300 319700 112900 1010000 110500 98880 1019000 200100 328100 2110000 1107000 454500 205800 1214000 595700 837200 2982000 308800 678400 444100 676700 163600 61410
2021-06-17 17634000 1415000 1500000 3845000 29674000 1929000 3047000 2463000 2014000 1332000 5151000 1758000 5356000 33495000 548000 341300 887900 3804000 552800 347500 109400 1098000 35860 371800 194100 1388000 750700 317500 463500 476300 659100 461600 68720 970000 603500 569800 319900 113000 1010000 110600 98910 1020000 200200 328300 2111000 1107000 454600 206100 1215000 595800 837600 2983000 309000 678600 444400 676800 163700 61470
2021-06-18 17678000 1416000 1507000 3871000 29724000 1935000 3052000 2466000 2019000 1337000 5155000 1763000 5362000 33503000 548100 341500 888300 3804000 553400 347600 109400 1099000 35900 371900 194200 1389000 751100 317700 463700 476500 659200 461700 68760 970500 603700 570200 320000 113000 1011000 110600 98940 1020000 200300 328500 2111000 1108000 454700 206400 1215000 595900 838000 2984000 309100 678700 444800 677000 163800 61530

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed