COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-21


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-06-21

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57049 210474 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37888 701 42653 2958 2181 8671 5772 34942 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 164 227 88 92 91 185 111 60 103 147 95 71 75 69 91 164 221 60 87 149 88 69 235 169 97 63
Last total 4640507 32457448 649670 1079640 421152 479760 1666082 3730619 291801 3764651 94379 5692968 418548 359184 807630 269321 4253460 1679542 2878840 865806 1080282 1084636 257001 391326 129545 701994
Last daily increment 10467 11229 94 225 120 59 57 493 149 7209 45 -28 206 11 202 284 484 559 73 756 26 0 19 78 212 367
Last week 59501 69785 821 2553 498 753 755 5291 1468 19452 456 11122 2353 507 528 2032 6428 4914 1021 6761 403 0 420 239 1046 1016
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23894 3419 21294 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1117 5635 11039 24662 814 8604 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-06-21

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-06-182021-04-142021-06-04 --2021-05-05 --2021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-01-062021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-06-112021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74948 8683 7186 387059 23864 16980 8725 10769 27989 17701 58965 239041 689 3744 2817 9263 42170 4984 2579 285 596 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 2745 21848 2491 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 323 3 68 17 47 64 152 73 80 181 166 66 162 197 38 166 169 187 215 161 162 33 170 164 163 221 195 227 65 217 162 217 162 163 68 70 72 102 164 216 170 77 80 192 159 213 194 89 195 68 55 193 160 220 10 160 219 155 81 56 245 171 214
Last total 30366 17966831 1417236 1522223 3968405 29935221 2004445 3105620 2478551 2030611 1364239 5272328 1832479 5375593 33554275 70675 549013 342767 890111 3809682 554017 347581 49262 109337 2351398 1098658 36048 372189 194249 1389357 751526 317756 463683 477748 659352 461779 68844 969487 604126 572758 320107 113225 1010889 110571 221235 98990 1020495 200622 329515 2112034 1109025 454884 206851 1215116 595750 124411 835554 2986414 310051 678765 24348 446212 676820 163382 61630
Last daily increment 11 38903 1033 5205 23239 0 14536 10485 1268 3882 5224 17114 9160 5294 12388 88 356 87 384 1457 224 95 19 16 0 173 12 45 243 758 284 146 355 684 48 40 20 359 98 402 159 58 776 4 0 86 126 249 640 283 123 0 74 221 302 18 270 755 110 116 8 528 147 0 140
Last week 80 433610 5584 34984 166353 302116 76737 55972 18950 23134 36808 96277 71413 33565 68237 247 850 1315 2542 5362 2371 242 49 143 10096 2044 246 394 417 1455 1691 637 992 1669 415 387 212 919 640 3889 679 276 1692 98 0 179 1263 541 1684 2123 1504 996 1392 1344 465 34 766 6725 1280 816 29 2574 414 161 327
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-152021-01-2911-2810-0508-0208-1005-0907-1612-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9218 7348 17013 92156 12531 13617 22832 8380 4292 10928 12481 720123 3867 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2172 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19229 2913 1343 11282 6013 4599 1490 1194 4743 1435 6223 328 74 483 3185 179 72 31 123 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 243 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-22 to 2021-06-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2021-06-21 4640507 32457448 649670 1079640 421152 479760 1666082 3730619 291801 3764651 94379 5692968 418548 359184 807630 269321 4253460 1679542 2878840 865806 1080282 257001 391326 129545 701994
2021-06-22 4649000 32497000 649800 1080000 421300 480100 1666000 3732000 292000 3771000 94510 5705000 419500 359500 808000 269600 4255000 1682000 2879000 867100 1080000 257200 391500 129700 702900
2021-06-23 4656000 32523000 649900 1081000 421500 480400 1666000 3735000 292400 3776000 94650 5714000 420100 359800 808300 270100 4256000 1683000 2880000 868200 1081000 257300 391700 129800 703500
2021-06-24 4663000 32548000 650100 1082000 421600 480600 1667000 3736000 292700 3783000 94730 5722000 420500 360000 808500 270400 4257000 1684000 2880000 869200 1081000 257400 391800 130000 704000
2021-06-25 4670000 32574000 650200 1082000 421700 480700 1667000 3736000 292900 3788000 94810 5729000 420800 360100 808700 270700 4258000 1685000 2880000 870200 1081000 257400 391800 130200 704300
2021-06-26 4678000 32588000 650400 1083000 421700 480900 1667000 3738000 293200 3789000 94920 5736000 421300 360300 808700 271100 4260000 1686000 2880000 871200 1081000 257600 391900 130300 704300
2021-06-27 4686000 32594000 650500 1083000 421700 480900 1667000 3738000 293400 3789000 94970 5738000 421300 360300 808700 271400 4260000 1687000 2880000 872000 1081000 257600 391900 130300 704300
2021-06-28 4694000 32603000 650600 1083000 421800 481000 1667000 3738000 293700 3797000 95010 5740000 421600 360300 808900 271700 4261000 1688000 2880000 872700 1081000 257600 391900 130500 704700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-22 to 2021-06-28

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WY
2021-06-21 17966831 1417236 1522223 3968405 29935221 2004445 3105620 2478551 2030611 1364239 5272328 1832479 5375593 33554275 70675 549013 342767 890111 3809682 554017 347581 2351398 1098658 36048 372189 194249 1389357 751526 317756 463683 477748 659352 461779 68844 969487 604126 572758 320107 113225 1010889 1020495 200622 329515 2112034 1109025 454884 206851 1215116 595750 835554 2986414 310051 678765 446212 676820 61630
2021-06-22 18015000 1419000 1531000 3988000 29991000 2016000 3114000 2481000 2032000 1371000 5288000 1844000 5383000 33566000 70680 549600 342900 890500 3811000 554800 347700 2352000 1099000 36120 372300 194400 1390000 752100 317900 463900 478100 659600 462000 68970 969900 604300 573500 320200 113300 1012000 1021000 200700 329800 2113000 1109000 454900 207200 1216000 596000 835700 2987000 310100 678900 446600 677100 61690
2021-06-23 18090000 1421000 1537000 4011000 30095000 2028000 3123000 2484000 2035000 1377000 5303000 1857000 5391000 33585000 70730 549900 343100 891000 3811000 555500 347800 2352000 1100000 36160 372400 194500 1390000 752600 318300 464400 478600 659800 462100 69080 970400 604500 574200 320300 113400 1012000 1021000 200800 329900 2113000 1110000 455800 207500 1217000 596200 835700 2989000 310300 679200 447600 677200 61770
2021-06-24 18156000 1423000 1545000 4038000 30179000 2042000 3132000 2488000 2044000 1384000 5318000 1870000 5398000 33601000 70730 550100 343300 891400 3812000 556100 347900 2352000 1100000 36210 372500 194600 1390000 753000 318400 464700 478900 659900 462200 69160 970700 604700 575000 320500 113500 1013000 1021000 200800 330100 2114000 1111000 455800 207800 1217000 596300 835800 2989000 310500 679400 448300 677400 61840
2021-06-25 18229000 1425000 1552000 4064000 30250000 2055000 3141000 2491000 2047000 1390000 5332000 1879000 5405000 33614000 70820 550400 343500 891800 3813000 556700 347900 2361000 1101000 36250 372600 194700 1391000 753400 318600 464900 479200 660000 462300 69230 971000 604900 575800 320700 113600 1013000 1022000 201000 330300 2114000 1111000 455800 208100 1218000 596400 835900 2990000 310700 679600 448800 677600 61900
2021-06-26 18295000 1426000 1558000 4090000 30318000 2067000 3147000 2491000 2048000 1397000 5347000 1891000 5412000 33626000 70820 550400 343700 892100 3814000 557200 347900 2361000 1101000 36320 372600 194700 1391000 753800 318600 465200 479200 660100 462400 69290 971300 605100 576400 320700 113600 1013000 1022000 201000 330500 2115000 1112000 455800 208400 1218000 596400 836000 2990000 310900 679700 449400 677600 61960
2021-06-27 18334000 1428000 1564000 4116000 30380000 2080000 3153000 2495000 2051000 1403000 5362000 1903000 5419000 33638000 70820 550400 343800 892500 3815000 557400 347900 2361000 1102000 36380 372700 194700 1391000 753800 318600 465400 479200 660100 462400 69330 971300 605200 576900 320700 113700 1013000 1022000 201000 330800 2115000 1112000 455800 208500 1218000 596500 836100 2990000 311000 679800 449800 677600 62020
2021-06-28 18367000 1429000 1569000 4138000 30440000 2093000 3162000 2497000 2054000 1408000 5376000 1911000 5425000 33649000 70890 550800 343900 892900 3815000 557600 348000 2361000 1102000 36400 372700 194900 1391000 754000 318700 465600 479700 660200 462500 69340 971500 605300 577200 320900 113700 1014000 1022000 201200 331000 2115000 1112000 455800 208600 1218000 596700 836200 2991000 311100 680000 450300 677700 62070

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-22 to 2021-06-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2021-06-21 4640507 32457448 649670 1079640 421152 479760 1666082 3730619 291801 3764651 94379 5692968 418548 359184 807630 269321 4253460 1679542 2878840 865806 1080282 257001 391326 129545 701994
2021-06-22 4649000 32470000 649700 1080000 421300 479900 1666000 3731000 292000 3768000 94440 5694000 419100 359300 807700 269600 4254000 1680000 2879000 866700 1080000 257100 391400 129700 702300
2021-06-23 4655000 32478000 649800 1080000 421300 480100 1666000 3732000 292200 3772000 94510 5697000 419600 359500 807800 269900 4255000 1681000 2879000 867400 1080000 257200 391500 129900 702600
2021-06-24 4662000 32488000 650000 1081000 421400 480300 1667000 3733000 292400 3777000 94540 5699000 420000 359600 807900 270200 4255000 1682000 2879000 868200 1081000 257300 391500 130000 702900
2021-06-25 4669000 32497000 650100 1081000 421500 480400 1667000 3734000 292600 3781000 94580 5701000 420400 359700 808000 270500 4256000 1682000 2879000 868900 1081000 257300 391600 130100 703000
2021-06-26 4677000 32503000 650200 1081000 421500 480500 1667000 3735000 292800 3783000 94640 5704000 420900 359900 808000 270800 4257000 1683000 2880000 869600 1081000 257500 391600 130200 703100
2021-06-27 4684000 32506000 650400 1082000 421500 480600 1667000 3736000 293000 3785000 94680 5708000 421100 360000 808100 271100 4258000 1684000 2880000 870300 1081000 257600 391700 130300 703200
2021-06-28 4691000 32510000 650500 1082000 421600 480700 1667000 3736000 293200 3792000 94700 5712000 421500 360000 808300 271400 4258000 1685000 2880000 871000 1081000 257600 391700 130400 703500

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-22 to 2021-06-28

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WY
2021-06-21 17966831 1417236 1522223 3968405 29935221 2004445 3105620 2478551 2030611 1364239 5272328 1832479 5375593 33554275 70675 549013 342767 890111 3809682 554017 347581 2351398 1098658 36048 372189 194249 1389357 751526 317756 463683 477748 659352 461779 68844 969487 604126 572758 320107 113225 1010889 1020495 200622 329515 2112034 1109025 454884 206851 1215116 595750 835554 2986414 310051 678765 446212 676820 61630
2021-06-22 18037000 1418000 1527000 3993000 29961000 2016000 3114000 2482000 2033000 1369000 5285000 1843000 5381000 33564000 70700 549200 342900 890400 3810000 554400 347600 2352000 1099000 36090 372300 194400 1390000 751800 317800 463900 478100 659400 461800 68870 969700 604200 573200 320100 113300 1011000 1021000 200700 329800 2112000 1109000 454900 207100 1215000 595800 835700 2987000 310200 678900 446600 676900 61700
2021-06-23 18121000 1419000 1532000 4018000 29997000 2026000 3121000 2485000 2035000 1375000 5292000 1854000 5387000 33571000 70740 549300 343100 890700 3811000 554900 347700 2353000 1099000 36120 372300 194500 1390000 752200 318000 464300 478400 659500 461900 68900 970000 604300 573600 320200 113300 1012000 1021000 200800 330100 2113000 1109000 455400 207300 1216000 595900 835800 2988000 310400 679000 447000 677000 61770
2021-06-24 18190000 1420000 1539000 4046000 30029000 2037000 3128000 2488000 2042000 1380000 5299000 1864000 5393000 33578000 70760 549400 343200 891000 3811000 555300 347800 2354000 1100000 36160 372400 194600 1390000 752500 318100 464500 478600 659500 461900 68920 970300 604400 574200 320400 113400 1012000 1021000 200900 330300 2113000 1110000 455400 207600 1216000 596000 836000 2989000 310500 679100 447300 677100 61820
2021-06-25 18267000 1420000 1546000 4072000 30059000 2047000 3134000 2491000 2045000 1386000 5307000 1872000 5399000 33585000 70810 549500 343400 891300 3812000 555800 347800 2358000 1100000 36210 372500 194600 1390000 752800 318300 464800 478800 659600 462000 68950 970500 604500 574700 320600 113400 1012000 1021000 201000 330600 2113000 1110000 455500 207900 1216000 596000 836100 2990000 310700 679200 447600 677200 61870
2021-06-26 18338000 1421000 1553000 4099000 30087000 2057000 3138000 2493000 2046000 1391000 5314000 1883000 5405000 33591000 70830 549600 343500 891600 3812000 556300 347900 2359000 1101000 36270 372500 194700 1390000 753100 318300 465000 478800 659700 462000 68980 970700 604600 575200 320600 113400 1012000 1022000 201000 330800 2114000 1110000 455600 208100 1217000 596100 836300 2990000 310900 679300 447800 677300 61920
2021-06-27 18370000 1421000 1560000 4124000 30116000 2067000 3142000 2496000 2049000 1397000 5321000 1893000 5411000 33597000 70840 549600 343600 892000 3812000 556600 347900 2360000 1101000 36320 372600 194700 1390000 753300 318400 465200 478900 659700 462100 69010 970800 604800 575700 320600 113400 1012000 1022000 201000 330900 2114000 1110000 455700 208300 1217000 596200 836400 2991000 311000 679400 448100 677300 61960
2021-06-28 18402000 1422000 1566000 4148000 30144000 2076000 3147000 2498000 2051000 1402000 5329000 1902000 5417000 33602000 70880 549800 343600 892300 3813000 556900 348000 2361000 1102000 36360 372600 194900 1390000 753600 318600 465400 479200 659800 462100 69030 971000 604900 576200 320800 113500 1013000 1022000 201100 331200 2115000 1110000 455700 208500 1217000 596400 836500 2991000 311200 679500 448300 677400 62020

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed