COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-03


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-07-03

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-112021-04-072021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57051 210466 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37891 701 42653 2958 2181 8671 5771 34944 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 176 239 100 104 103 197 123 72 115 159 107 83 87 81 103 176 233 72 99 161 100 81 247 181 109 75
Last total 4879616 32638286 650662 1086508 422034 481055 1667796 3738059 294925 3833868 96372 5715282 425347 360181 808197 273744 4262511 1687891 2880215 887047 1080918 1090880 257413 391696 131861 703334
Last daily increment 24447 11750 93 0 51 75 188 429 447 0 192 3006 1182 114 0 448 929 1125 108 2605 58 0 30 20 112 0
Last week 147182 112213 401 4032 503 813 906 3570 1982 51405 1288 11758 4442 529 287 2484 4442 4620 577 12500 288 1984 173 145 1273 827
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-0311-1412-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53551 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23894 3419 21296 147 51954 2609 3554 5428 1117 5636 11039 24662 814 8603 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 492 312 1056 9 193 3435 5006 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-07-03

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-142021-06-04 --2021-05-05 --2021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-22 --2021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-06-112021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74846 8683 7289 387046 23864 16980 8725 10769 27995 58965 239056 689 3744 2817 9263 42169 4984 2579 285 595 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12562 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 3177 21848 2491 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 335 101 80 29 59 76 164 85 92 193 78 174 209 50 178 181 199 227 173 174 45 182 176 175 233 207 239 77 229 174 229 174 175 80 82 84 114 176 228 182 89 92 204 171 225 206 101 207 80 67 205 172 232 22 172 231 167 93 68 257 183 226
Last total 30753 18742025 1424117 1566461 4324230 30545433 2256851 3241037 2537457 2057554 1430419 5519516 2046311 5440368 33713870 71085 551298 347614 896518 3820421 559195 348296 49378 109619 2378131 1102914 36552 373165 195172 1392489 754724 319541 465481 482172 660058 462535 69096 971651 605182 582868 322186 113873 1014359 110734 221235 99228 1023291 201365 334763 2116076 1112289 457490 209037 1217288 597261 124592 836805 3004465 313028 680904 24399 450966 677859 164149 62445
Last daily increment 19 54556 280 3848 26928 43071 27913 8341 6265 0 5901 24003 26485 4537 4739 0 0 0 645 780 451 0 0 26 0 0 44 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 96 27 0 113 227 0 0 0 5 0 0 184 0 0 286 201 0 0 173 0 0 0 1187 0 160 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 225 321427 3510 19358 165514 266102 141547 73296 31665 11497 32427 132030 117414 31341 88451 340 1364 3299 3371 4708 2496 356 73 164 15684 2192 255 542 482 2146 2025 1189 1102 3041 367 391 120 1290 530 5163 1349 344 2016 71 0 162 1283 422 3149 2047 1589 1504 900 1155 1117 96 877 10076 1467 1076 27 2086 607 345 494
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-152021-01-2911-2810-0508-0208-1005-092021-01-0812-10 -- --2021-01-0504-2207-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 9218 7348 17013 92153 12531 13617 22832 8380 4292 10930 18906 720122 3868 153 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2172 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19228 2914 1343 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 6223 328 74 483 3185 179 72 31 123 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 199 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2021-07-03 4879616 32638286 650662 1086508 422034 481055 1667796 3738059 294925 3833868 96372 5715282 425347 360181 808197 273744 4262511 1687891 2880215 887047 1080918 1090880 131861 703334
2021-07-04 4903000 32638000 650900 1087000 422100 481100 1668000 3740000 295200 3834000 96560 5718000 425300 360200 808300 274000 4263000 1689000 2881000 889900 1081000 1091000 131900 703500
2021-07-05 4927000 32651000 651000 1087000 422200 481100 1668000 3741000 295300 3840000 96710 5720000 425600 360300 808500 274200 4263000 1689000 2881000 891900 1081000 1091000 132100 704000
2021-07-06 4951000 32666000 651000 1088000 422400 481200 1668000 3741000 295500 3844000 96910 5725000 426200 360400 808600 274400 4263000 1690000 2881000 894200 1081000 1093000 132300 704200
2021-07-07 4973000 32680000 651100 1089000 422400 481300 1668000 3742000 295700 3850000 97140 5728000 426600 360500 808700 274700 4263000 1691000 2881000 896500 1081000 1093000 132500 704300
2021-07-08 4996000 32696000 651200 1089000 422500 481400 1668000 3743000 295900 3859000 97350 5732000 427100 360600 808700 274900 4264000 1692000 2881000 898900 1081000 1094000 132700 704500
2021-07-09 5019000 32715000 651300 1090000 422600 481500 1669000 3744000 296200 3869000 97520 5736000 427800 360700 808800 275100 4264000 1692000 2881000 901200 1082000 1094000 132900 704600
2021-07-10 5042000 32726000 651400 1090000 422600 481600 1669000 3744000 296400 3869000 97700 5741000 428600 360800 808800 275400 4265000 1693000 2881000 903200 1082000 1094000 133000 704600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-03 30753 18742025 1424117 1566461 4324230 30545433 2256851 3241037 2537457 2057554 1430419 5519516 2046311 5440368 33713870 71085 551298 347614 896518 3820421 559195 348296 2378131 1102914 36552 373165 195172 1392489 754724 319541 465481 482172 660058 462535 971651 605182 582868 322186 113873 1014359 1023291 201365 334763 2116076 1112289 457490 209037 1217288 597261 836805 3004465 313028 680904 450966 677859 164149 62445
2021-07-04 30790 18845000 1425000 1571000 4358000 30590000 2288000 3245000 2537000 2065000 1438000 5538000 2076000 5447000 33725000 71090 551300 348200 897000 3821000 559700 348300 2386000 1103000 36600 373200 195200 1392000 754700 319500 465600 482200 660100 462600 971700 605300 583200 322200 113900 1014000 1024000 201400 335100 2116000 1113000 458400 209400 1218000 597300 836900 3004000 313200 681000 451300 677900 164200 62450
2021-07-05 30810 18897000 1425000 1574000 4382000 30641000 2314000 3254000 2537000 2068000 1444000 5559000 2097000 5455000 33734000 71190 551800 348900 897200 3822000 559900 348400 2387000 1104000 36620 373200 195400 1393000 755300 319700 465900 482900 660100 462600 972100 605300 583400 322400 114000 1015000 1024000 201600 335200 2117000 1113000 458700 209600 1218000 597600 837200 3005000 313300 681100 452200 678000 164300 62580
2021-07-06 30840 18972000 1426000 1576000 4406000 30688000 2337000 3264000 2541000 2069000 1448000 5578000 2123000 5462000 33744000 71190 551800 349300 897500 3823000 560300 348500 2388000 1104000 36650 373300 195500 1393000 755600 319700 466100 483200 660200 462700 972300 605400 584100 322500 114100 1016000 1024000 201700 335400 2117000 1113000 459000 209900 1219000 597600 837300 3007000 313500 681300 452800 678200 164400 62650
2021-07-07 30870 19038000 1426000 1578000 4432000 30731000 2360000 3274000 2545000 2072000 1453000 5598000 2150000 5469000 33755000 71250 552200 349800 897900 3824000 560800 348500 2388000 1105000 36690 373400 195600 1394000 755900 320100 466300 483700 660200 462700 972600 605500 585100 322600 114100 1016000 1024000 201800 335700 2117000 1113000 461200 210100 1219000 597700 837500 3009000 313800 681400 453200 678200 164500 62720
2021-07-08 30900 19106000 1427000 1580000 4458000 30774000 2385000 3285000 2550000 2077000 1458000 5618000 2190000 5475000 33766000 71250 552200 350400 898300 3825000 561200 348600 2389000 1105000 36730 373500 195700 1394000 756300 320100 466400 484100 660300 462800 972800 605600 586000 322900 114200 1016000 1024000 201800 335900 2118000 1114000 461200 210300 1219000 597800 837600 3010000 314100 681500 453700 678400 164500 62780
2021-07-09 30930 19172000 1427000 1584000 4486000 30816000 2408000 3297000 2555000 2079000 1464000 5639000 2224000 5482000 33778000 71320 552600 350800 898700 3825000 561700 348600 2389000 1106000 36790 373600 195700 1394000 756600 320400 466600 484500 660300 462900 972900 605600 587000 323100 114200 1016000 1025000 201900 336300 2118000 1114000 461200 210500 1220000 598000 837700 3012000 314400 681700 454100 678400 164600 62860
2021-07-10 30970 19224000 1428000 1588000 4513000 30857000 2435000 3304000 2559000 2079000 1470000 5660000 2235000 5488000 33789000 71320 552600 350900 899100 3826000 562000 348600 2391000 1106000 36830 373600 195700 1394000 756700 320400 466700 484500 660300 463000 972900 605700 587300 323100 114300 1016000 1025000 201900 336600 2118000 1114000 461200 210600 1220000 598000 837700 3013000 314400 681800 454500 678400 164600 62860

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2021-07-03 4879616 32638286 650662 1086508 422034 481055 1667796 3738059 294925 3833868 96372 5715282 425347 360181 808197 273744 4262511 1687891 2880215 887047 1080918 1090880 131861 703334
2021-07-04 4901000 32647000 650700 1087000 422100 481100 1668000 3738000 295200 3837000 96510 5717000 425900 360300 808200 274200 4263000 1688000 2880000 889100 1081000 1091000 132000 703400
2021-07-05 4917000 32654000 650800 1087000 422100 481200 1668000 3739000 295300 3841000 96570 5718000 426100 360300 808300 274500 4263000 1689000 2880000 890100 1081000 1091000 132100 703700
2021-07-06 4934000 32662000 650800 1088000 422200 481300 1668000 3739000 295400 3845000 96660 5720000 426500 360400 808400 274800 4264000 1689000 2880000 891400 1081000 1091000 132300 703800
2021-07-07 4952000 32669000 650900 1088000 422300 481400 1668000 3740000 295600 3850000 96770 5722000 427000 360500 808400 275200 4264000 1690000 2881000 892800 1081000 1092000 132400 703900
2021-07-08 4969000 32678000 650900 1089000 422300 481500 1668000 3740000 295800 3856000 96870 5724000 427400 360600 808500 275500 4264000 1690000 2881000 894200 1081000 1092000 132600 704100
2021-07-09 4987000 32686000 651000 1089000 422400 481600 1668000 3740000 296000 3861000 96930 5726000 427900 360600 808500 275800 4265000 1691000 2881000 895600 1081000 1092000 132700 704200
2021-07-10 5005000 32690000 651100 1089000 422400 481600 1669000 3741000 296200 3863000 97040 5729000 428300 360700 808500 276200 4265000 1692000 2881000 896900 1081000 1092000 132800 704300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-03 30753 18742025 1424117 1566461 4324230 30545433 2256851 3241037 2537457 2057554 1430419 5519516 2046311 5440368 33713870 71085 551298 347614 896518 3820421 559195 348296 2378131 1102914 36552 373165 195172 1392489 754724 319541 465481 482172 660058 462535 971651 605182 582868 322186 113873 1014359 1023291 201365 334763 2116076 1112289 457490 209037 1217288 597261 836805 3004465 313028 680904 450966 677859 164149 62445
2021-07-04 30780 18775000 1424000 1570000 4353000 30579000 2282000 3249000 2542000 2060000 1436000 5536000 2069000 5446000 33722000 71110 551300 347800 897000 3821000 559500 348300 2381000 1103000 36600 373200 195200 1393000 754800 319600 465600 482300 660100 462600 971700 605300 583400 322200 113900 1014000 1023000 201400 334900 2116000 1112000 457700 209100 1217000 597300 837000 3005000 313200 681000 451200 677900 164200 62480
2021-07-05 30790 18812000 1425000 1573000 4381000 30603000 2304000 3257000 2544000 2062000 1440000 5546000 2085000 5452000 33727000 71170 551600 348100 897200 3822000 559700 348400 2384000 1103000 36620 373300 195300 1393000 755200 319800 465700 482800 660100 462600 972000 605300 584000 322400 113900 1015000 1024000 201500 335200 2117000 1113000 457900 209300 1218000 597600 837400 3005000 313400 681100 451500 678000 164300 62540
2021-07-06 30810 18881000 1425000 1576000 4409000 30626000 2324000 3266000 2548000 2063000 1444000 5556000 2101000 5457000 33732000 71190 551600 348400 897500 3822000 560000 348400 2386000 1104000 36650 373300 195400 1393000 755400 319900 465900 483000 660100 462600 972100 605400 584700 322500 114000 1016000 1024000 201600 335500 2117000 1113000 458000 209500 1218000 597700 837700 3006000 313600 681200 451700 678100 164300 62600
2021-07-07 30820 18942000 1425000 1577000 4437000 30648000 2344000 3273000 2553000 2065000 1448000 5565000 2119000 5463000 33738000 71240 551800 348700 897900 3822000 560300 348500 2389000 1104000 36690 373400 195500 1393000 755700 320100 466000 483300 660200 462700 972300 605500 585400 322700 114000 1016000 1024000 201600 335800 2117000 1113000 459000 209600 1218000 597800 837900 3007000 313900 681300 451900 678100 164400 62660
2021-07-08 30840 19018000 1426000 1580000 4465000 30670000 2365000 3280000 2557000 2069000 1452000 5574000 2139000 5469000 33743000 71250 551800 349000 898300 3823000 560700 348500 2392000 1105000 36730 373500 195600 1393000 756000 320200 466100 483500 660200 462700 972500 605500 586200 322800 114000 1016000 1024000 201700 336100 2117000 1113000 459100 209800 1218000 597900 838100 3008000 314100 681400 452100 678200 164400 62710
2021-07-09 30860 19101000 1426000 1584000 4493000 30692000 2385000 3287000 2561000 2072000 1456000 5584000 2160000 5474000 33749000 71290 551900 349400 898700 3823000 561100 348600 2394000 1105000 36770 373500 195600 1393000 756200 320400 466300 483700 660200 462800 972600 605600 587000 323000 114000 1016000 1025000 201800 336500 2118000 1113000 459200 210000 1218000 598000 838300 3008000 314300 681500 452300 678300 164500 62760
2021-07-10 30870 19178000 1426000 1588000 4522000 30714000 2408000 3291000 2565000 2073000 1461000 5594000 2175000 5480000 33754000 71310 551900 349600 899200 3823000 561400 348600 2400000 1106000 36820 373600 195700 1393000 756400 320400 466400 483700 660200 462800 972600 605700 587700 323100 114100 1016000 1025000 201800 336800 2118000 1113000 459300 210200 1218000 598000 838500 3009000 314500 681600 452500 678300 164500 62800

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed