COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-07-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-03-182021-04-11 --2021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57050 210462 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37890 701 42653 2181 8671 5771 34940 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 186 249 110 114 113 207 133 82 125 169 117 93 91 113 186 243 82 109 171 110 91 257 191 119 85
Last total 5191459 33020663 652022 1098332 422619 483255 1669745 3745312 301126 4015084 98505 5749593 444783 360924 808556 279053 4273693 1744700 2880959 912406 1081326 1093209 257959 391953 133549 706248
Last daily increment 36216 74074 218 1303 74 273 249 1027 1055 43960 290 6810 3911 83 17 589 1530 7821 94 2650 51 669 84 28 182 483
Last week 200543 263449 1014 7237 321 1224 1468 4745 4241 117088 1456 25198 13823 441 218 3482 7979 48220 456 16380 236 1126 409 173 975 1896
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-0204-0411-032021-04-0812-1211-2904-1003-2412-1911-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53550 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23894 3419 21295 147 51954 2957 3554 5428 1117 5635 11030 24662 814 8603 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 5 10020 312 1056 9 193 3435 5007 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-07-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-142021-06-04 --2021-05-05 --2021-04-182021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-222021-07-102021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-06-282021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-01-022021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-06-112021-01-1211-142021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74846 8684 7274 387031 23863 16980 8725 10769 27990 21137 58965 239061 689 3744 491 9263 42166 4984 2579 285 595 16406 8865 174 4362 1493 12563 1823 3244 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 3054 21848 2491 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 345 111 90 39 69 86 174 95 102 203 3 88 184 219 60 15 191 209 237 183 184 55 192 186 185 243 217 249 87 239 184 239 184 185 90 92 94 124 186 238 192 99 102 214 181 235 216 111 217 90 77 215 182 242 32 182 241 177 103 78 267 193 236
Last total 31429 19151993 1428668 1589623 4530610 30946147 2615529 3417029 2604711 2081557 1481660 5762211 2219316 5493244 33914880 71599 555215 355918 901906 3845121 563563 349068 49536 109886 2401932 1109499 37134 374621 196310 1397615 758479 322075 468035 490517 661170 463383 69284 973747 606390 595841 325072 114415 1019838 110899 221235 99485 1025828 202310 340600 2121676 1114835 459205 211065 1219161 600283 124652 840732 3024610 316268 683202 24478 456293 678944 164685 62966
Last daily increment 106 45022 260 0 0 71771 47899 22750 11137 0 3599 24211 12535 6285 25919 0 0 1465 345 4922 556 207 10 20 0 1057 53 0 182 577 575 0 432 955 200 118 65 740 382 2175 219 90 545 41 0 27 374 115 855 640 344 0 336 275 256 0 531 3724 331 346 8 1102 0 60 -172
Last week 526 242956 2546 13287 103799 236590 236132 112894 46342 9920 31550 147671 106980 33321 144436 301 2304 5801 3623 18650 3220 506 113 213 23801 4581 420 246 758 3438 2409 1494 1800 5100 783 647 128 1571 836 8499 1858 313 3576 120 0 162 1906 668 4038 4215 1829 0 1301 1454 2054 0 2673 13681 2222 1603 57 3739 712 339 229
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-152021-01-2911-2810-0508-0208-1005-092021-01-0612-10 -- --2021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-0607-1711-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-30 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-01 --05-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45269 9218 7348 17013 92149 12531 13616 22832 8380 4292 10928 17701 720122 3868 2817 3557 9151 729 1011 190 792 11222 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 303 2155 2172 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19228 2914 1343 11281 6013 4599 1490 1194 4744 937 6223 328 155 483 3185 179 72 31 123 2309 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 95 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 213 9248 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2021-07-13 5191459 33020663 652022 1098332 422619 483255 1669745 3745312 301126 4015084 98505 5749593 444783 360924 808556 279053 4273693 1744700 2880959 912406 1081326 1093209 257959 133549 706248
2021-07-14 5223000 33087000 652000 1098000 422700 483300 1670000 3746000 301800 4035000 98510 5750000 448100 361000 808600 279600 4274000 1752000 2881000 914200 1081000 1093000 258000 133800 706400
2021-07-15 5248000 33144000 652000 1098000 422800 483300 1671000 3746000 302200 4052000 98540 5752000 451100 361100 808700 280000 4274000 1758000 2881000 916500 1081000 1094000 258000 134000 706600
2021-07-16 5275000 33205000 652100 1098000 422900 483400 1671000 3747000 302700 4074000 98630 5756000 454100 361200 808700 280400 4275000 1765000 2881000 918800 1082000 1094000 258000 134200 706900
2021-07-17 5303000 33250000 652300 1098000 422900 483400 1671000 3747000 303200 4087000 98750 5761000 457200 361300 808700 280800 4276000 1772000 2881000 921200 1082000 1094000 258100 134300 707000
2021-07-18 5331000 33292000 652400 1098000 422900 483500 1672000 3748000 303700 4103000 98800 5765000 459700 361300 808700 281300 4277000 1779000 2881000 923600 1082000 1094000 258100 134400 707100
2021-07-19 5360000 33349000 652500 1098000 423000 483800 1672000 3748000 304300 4121000 98820 5768000 462600 361300 808800 281800 4278000 1785000 2881000 925000 1082000 1094000 258100 134600 707500
2021-07-20 5389000 33397000 652700 1099000 423100 484000 1672000 3749000 304900 4145000 99060 5774000 465300 361400 808900 282300 4279000 1792000 2881000 927300 1082000 1094000 258200 134700 707900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-13 31429 19151993 1428668 1589623 4530610 30946147 2615529 3417029 2604711 2081557 1481660 5762211 2219316 5493244 33914880 71599 555215 355918 901906 3845121 563563 349068 109886 2401932 1109499 37134 374621 196310 1397615 758479 322075 468035 490517 661170 463383 973747 606390 595841 325072 114415 1019838 1025828 202310 340600 2121676 1114835 211065 1219161 600283 840732 3024610 316268 683202 456293 678944 164685 62966
2021-07-14 31520 19243000 1429000 1591000 4583000 30998000 2658000 3431000 2605000 2087000 1487000 5785000 2234000 5499000 33932000 71660 555300 357200 902400 3849000 564200 349100 109900 2403000 1109000 37130 374700 196300 1398000 758500 322300 468000 490500 661300 463500 973700 606600 597000 325100 114500 1020000 1026000 202300 341100 2122000 1115000 211100 1219000 600300 841300 3026000 316400 683400 456500 679000 164700 63140
2021-07-15 31590 19317000 1430000 1594000 4617000 31065000 2697000 3451000 2608000 2091000 1493000 5808000 2251000 5505000 33932000 71660 555300 358500 902800 3853000 564800 349100 109900 2404000 1110000 37160 374700 196400 1398000 758800 322300 468100 490500 661500 463600 973800 606800 597000 325100 114500 1020000 1026000 202400 341100 2123000 1115000 211300 1219000 600300 841600 3026000 316400 683400 456500 679100 164800 63220
2021-07-16 31670 19385000 1431000 1596000 4645000 31124000 2737000 3468000 2612000 2092000 1499000 5832000 2269000 5511000 33932000 71700 555300 359900 903300 3857000 565400 349200 109900 2409000 1110000 37200 374700 196400 1398000 759100 322300 468300 490500 661700 463700 974200 607100 597300 325300 114500 1020000 1026000 202500 341100 2124000 1115000 211500 1220000 600400 842000 3026000 316400 683500 456500 679200 164800 63280
2021-07-17 31750 19437000 1431000 1598000 4665000 31178000 2777000 3478000 2619000 2094000 1504000 5856000 2288000 5517000 33940000 71700 555300 360700 903800 3860000 566000 349200 110000 2413000 1111000 37270 374700 196400 1398000 759100 322500 468300 490500 661800 463800 974200 607200 597900 325400 114600 1020000 1027000 202500 341400 2124000 1116000 211500 1220000 600400 842400 3027000 316400 683600 456500 679200 164800 63350
2021-07-18 31830 19463000 1432000 1598000 4682000 31230000 2818000 3493000 2624000 2097000 1510000 5880000 2306000 5523000 33951000 71700 555300 361200 904300 3864000 566200 349200 110000 2413000 1111000 37330 374700 196400 1398000 759100 322500 468300 490500 661900 463900 974200 607400 598600 325400 114600 1020000 1027000 202500 341800 2125000 1116000 211500 1220000 600400 842800 3028000 316400 683700 456500 679200 164800 63400
2021-07-19 31910 19473000 1432000 1599000 4715000 31281000 2859000 3511000 2627000 2098000 1514000 5904000 2317000 5529000 33965000 71800 555400 362400 904700 3867000 566500 349300 110000 2413000 1112000 37380 374700 196600 1398000 759600 322900 468700 490500 662000 464000 974300 607600 599500 325900 114700 1020000 1027000 202700 342200 2125000 1116000 211900 1220000 600500 843200 3030000 316400 683900 456500 679400 164900 63460
2021-07-20 31990 19520000 1433000 1600000 4721000 31330000 2902000 3531000 2635000 2098000 1518000 5926000 2328000 5536000 33980000 71800 555400 363200 905200 3871000 566900 349400 110000 2413000 1113000 37420 374700 196800 1398000 760200 322900 469100 491300 662200 464000 974800 607900 600500 326100 114700 1021000 1027000 202800 342600 2126000 1116000 212100 1220000 600700 843700 3031000 316400 684100 456500 679500 165000 63520

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2021-07-13 5191459 33020663 652022 1098332 422619 483255 1669745 3745312 301126 4015084 98505 5749593 444783 360924 808556 279053 4273693 1744700 2880959 912406 1081326 1093209 257959 133549 706248
2021-07-14 5223000 33062000 652200 1100000 422700 483500 1670000 3746000 301900 4038000 98690 5753000 447400 361000 808600 279600 4275000 1752000 2881000 914800 1081000 1093000 258000 133700 706600
2021-07-15 5249000 33082000 652200 1100000 422700 483600 1670000 3746000 302300 4051000 98820 5755000 449400 361100 808600 280000 4275000 1758000 2881000 917100 1081000 1093000 258000 133800 706700
2021-07-16 5276000 33103000 652300 1101000 422800 483800 1670000 3747000 302900 4068000 98920 5758000 451500 361200 808700 280400 4275000 1763000 2881000 919400 1082000 1094000 258000 134000 706900
2021-07-17 5303000 33118000 652500 1102000 422800 483900 1671000 3747000 303400 4077000 99020 5761000 453700 361300 808700 280900 4276000 1769000 2881000 921500 1082000 1094000 258100 134100 706900
2021-07-18 5329000 33132000 652600 1102000 422800 484000 1671000 3747000 303900 4088000 99080 5763000 455600 361400 808700 281400 4276000 1775000 2881000 923600 1082000 1094000 258100 134200 707000
2021-07-19 5356000 33154000 652600 1103000 422800 484200 1671000 3747000 304400 4101000 99120 5764000 457500 361400 808700 281800 4277000 1780000 2881000 925000 1082000 1094000 258100 134300 707100
2021-07-20 5384000 33171000 652700 1104000 422900 484400 1671000 3748000 305000 4117000 99220 5767000 459500 361500 808800 282300 4277000 1786000 2881000 926800 1082000 1094000 258100 134400 707300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-14 to 2021-07-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-13 31429 19151993 1428668 1589623 4530610 30946147 2615529 3417029 2604711 2081557 1481660 5762211 2219316 5493244 33914880 71599 555215 355918 901906 3845121 563563 349068 109886 2401932 1109499 37134 374621 196310 1397615 758479 322075 468035 490517 661170 463383 973747 606390 595841 325072 114415 1019838 1025828 202310 340600 2121676 1114835 211065 1219161 600283 840732 3024610 316268 683202 456293 678944 164685 62966
2021-07-14 31500 19203000 1429000 1591000 4558000 30978000 2656000 3433000 2611000 2083000 1486000 5780000 2235000 5499000 33931000 71690 555500 357000 902200 3848000 564100 349200 109900 2402000 1110000 37180 374700 196400 1398000 758900 322600 468300 491400 661300 463500 973900 606600 597100 325400 114500 1020000 1026000 202400 341300 2122000 1115000 211300 1219000 600500 841300 3027000 316600 683400 457000 679000 164700 63010
2021-07-15 31530 19255000 1429000 1593000 4583000 30998000 2693000 3450000 2617000 2086000 1490000 5792000 2255000 5504000 33935000 71710 555500 357700 902600 3849000 564500 349200 109900 2403000 1111000 37230 374700 196500 1398000 759200 322600 468400 491800 661300 463500 974000 606700 597900 325500 114500 1021000 1026000 202500 341600 2123000 1115000 211400 1220000 600700 841600 3028000 316900 683500 457200 679100 164800 63070
2021-07-16 31570 19311000 1430000 1596000 4605000 31017000 2730000 3462000 2623000 2087000 1494000 5804000 2274000 5510000 33946000 71760 555600 358300 903100 3851000 565200 349300 110000 2405000 1111000 37280 374700 196600 1399000 759500 322600 468600 492300 661400 463600 974300 606800 598900 325800 114500 1021000 1027000 202600 342100 2123000 1115000 211600 1220000 601000 841900 3029000 317200 683600 457400 679200 164800 63120
2021-07-17 31600 19356000 1430000 1599000 4625000 31035000 2764000 3468000 2629000 2089000 1499000 5815000 2293000 5515000 33950000 71770 555800 358700 903600 3852000 565600 349300 110000 2407000 1112000 37340 374700 196600 1399000 759700 322700 468700 492500 661400 463700 974300 606900 599900 325900 114500 1021000 1027000 202600 342400 2124000 1115000 211700 1220000 601100 842200 3030000 317400 683700 457600 679200 164800 63170
2021-07-18 31630 19377000 1430000 1601000 4646000 31053000 2797000 3479000 2635000 2091000 1503000 5826000 2311000 5520000 33956000 71790 555800 359000 904000 3853000 565700 349400 110000 2408000 1112000 37400 374700 196700 1399000 759800 322700 468800 492700 661500 463700 974400 607000 600800 326000 114600 1022000 1027000 202600 342700 2124000 1115000 211700 1220000 601300 842500 3030000 317500 683900 457800 679200 164900 63220
2021-07-19 31660 19388000 1430000 1603000 4667000 31070000 2832000 3490000 2639000 2093000 1507000 5837000 2329000 5526000 33965000 71840 556200 359400 904500 3855000 565900 349400 110000 2411000 1113000 37430 374700 196800 1399000 760100 322900 469000 493200 661500 463700 974400 607100 601800 326200 114600 1022000 1027000 202700 343200 2125000 1116000 211900 1220000 601600 842900 3031000 317700 684000 458000 679300 164900 63270
2021-07-20 31700 19444000 1431000 1605000 4686000 31087000 2867000 3502000 2645000 2094000 1510000 5847000 2344000 5532000 33973000 71860 556300 359800 905000 3856000 566200 349500 110000 2413000 1113000 37470 374700 196900 1400000 760500 323000 469200 493800 661600 463800 974700 607200 602900 326400 114600 1023000 1027000 202800 343700 2125000 1116000 212100 1220000 601800 843200 3032000 318000 684100 458200 679300 164900 63320

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed