COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-16


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-07-16

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-01-252021-07-062021-04-112021-07-132021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57052 210472 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20925 1362 37891 226 42652 3830 2181 8671 5771 34944 7908 27942 12347 5701 6130 1746 2815 921 2152
Days since peak 189 252 113 117 116 210 136 85 128 172 10 96 3 94 116 189 246 85 112 174 113 94 260 194 122 88
Last total 5332371 33213776 653001 1103413 422873 484074 1670583 3749944 304429 4100222 99592 5771282 453200 361349 808725 281954 4281214 1777399 2881241 923747 1081539 1094287 258108 392034 134092 707357
Last daily increment 51273 70791 341 1344 76 273 235 1565 960 31060 380 10908 2688 131 64 1170 2895 11297 90 3547 72 364 63 34 216 0
Last week 242478 344530 1548 9713 427 1437 1401 6780 5815 163030 1648 33372 15855 581 288 4638 11329 58279 486 18096 329 1747 270 141 992 2414
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-1811-022021-03-1811-032021-04-0712-1211-2904-1003-2412-1911-0804-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4732 53553 7110 16472 3443 271 12285 23894 3419 21296 701 51953 2958 3554 5428 1117 5636 11030 24662 814 8603 8567 1168 8404
Low between peaks 425 3422 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 6516 51 10020 374 312 1056 9 193 3435 5007 179 2312 2601 253 953

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-07-16

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-07-122021-05-05 -- --2021-01-202021-04-092021-04-0212-22 --2021-04-162021-01-1012-062021-05-142021-06-282021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-19 --2021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-172021-07-082021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-052021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1211-132021-06-112021-01-122021-07-062021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74846 8650 7274 55512 387034 16980 8725 10769 27996 58965 239067 689 3744 500 9263 42166 4984 2579 285 595 8865 174 4362 1493 12563 1823 311 3605 3407 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 2921 1163 8243 156 940 793 5865 2333 2623 20523 17473 1438 822 10187 4802 1362 3096 21848 322 6323 173 1457 12345 1433 800
Days since peak 348 114 95 42 4 72 177 98 105 206 91 187 222 63 18 194 212 240 186 187 58 189 188 246 220 252 90 8 187 242 187 188 93 95 97 127 189 241 195 102 105 217 184 238 219 114 220 93 80 218 185 245 35 185 10 180 106 81 270 196 239
Last total 31771 19308109 1430127 1596549 4601335 31026829 2780803 3485940 2642068 2090175 1496328 5835523 2269179 5514373 34053080 72127 558577 359487 906116 3853255 565214 349499 49652 110044 2447381 1113100 37455 375271 196856 1399891 760163 324367 469701 495551 661888 463848 69416 974677 607042 602801 326804 114663 1022876 110975 221235 99600 1027126 202780 343096 2124081 1116322 461885 211998 1220060 601803 124764 842077 3037130 317684 684499 24530 458521 679826 164933 63523
Last daily increment 145 45591 380 2053 17893 0 54000 21885 12420 2032 5663 25188 15939 6918 77438 282 999 1308 1251 3733 607 139 37 39 45449 1045 137 0 161 678 545 1065 496 1604 269 183 43 930 246 2200 534 87 1023 17 0 32 495 145 866 716 533 0 367 338 571 0 0 4431 497 445 20 740 222 90 68
Last week 671 239106 2228 11389 129713 189607 289797 130154 55347 11360 29209 146716 89882 38079 205296 698 3972 7060 5480 19208 2890 712 197 252 45449 6368 521 650 1025 4447 3101 2954 2826 8380 1233 741 197 1670 1221 10367 2747 423 5443 127 0 215 2164 882 5024 4472 2286 2680 1768 1570 2885 112 3025 20239 2701 2066 91 4939 1222 468 557
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0706-062021-04-2209-152021-01-292021-04-1410-0508-0208-1005-092021-01-0812-10 -- --2021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-062021-01-0311-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0511-16 --07-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2207-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1608-2712-1411-0111-1405-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45270 7806 7349 17204 92150 12531 24096 22832 8380 4292 10931 17617 720122 3868 2817 3557 9152 729 1011 190 792 14682 21992 245 1641 986 3933 6415 3244 2155 2172 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 1273 2132 3072 89 4272 286 1108 15820 1004 3943 1537 1625 1834 465 7648 26263 2491 1076 3223 51
Low between peaks 7 19228 2896 1343 413 11281 4599 1490 1194 4745 6223 328 155 483 3185 179 72 31 123 2470 81 721 283 1766 759 63 377 -21 361 140 985 760 222 463 67 232 19 115 95 298 5625 386 174 278 425 764 232 213 9248 148 479 678 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-17 to 2021-07-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2021-07-16 5332371 33213776 653001 1103413 422873 484074 1670583 3749944 304429 4100222 99592 5771282 453200 361349 808725 281954 4281214 1777399 2881241 923747 1081539 1094287 258108 134092 707357
2021-07-17 5371000 33269000 653300 1103000 422900 484400 1671000 3751000 305200 4138000 99600 5779000 456700 361400 808700 283000 4283000 1788000 2881000 925300 1082000 1095000 258100 134300 708000
2021-07-18 5398000 33311000 653500 1103000 422900 484500 1671000 3752000 305900 4162000 99600 5786000 459100 361400 808700 283700 4284000 1797000 2881000 927000 1082000 1095000 258100 134400 708400
2021-07-19 5429000 33363000 653800 1104000 423000 484800 1671000 3753000 306600 4190000 99600 5790000 461800 361400 808800 284600 4286000 1806000 2882000 928400 1082000 1095000 258100 134600 709000
2021-07-20 5462000 33417000 654000 1105000 423100 485000 1671000 3754000 307300 4222000 99900 5799000 464600 361500 808900 285400 4287000 1815000 2882000 930600 1082000 1096000 258200 134800 709500
2021-07-21 5495000 33467000 654200 1107000 423200 485200 1672000 3756000 308000 4243000 100100 5804000 467100 361600 808900 286300 4289000 1825000 2882000 933900 1082000 1097000 258200 135000 710000
2021-07-22 5529000 33521000 654500 1108000 423300 485400 1672000 3757000 308700 4263000 100400 5810000 469400 361800 809000 287100 4291000 1835000 2882000 937200 1082000 1097000 258300 135100 710500
2021-07-23 5564000 33578000 654800 1109000 423300 485700 1672000 3758000 309500 4287000 100700 5817000 471800 361900 809000 288000 4293000 1845000 2882000 940300 1082000 1097000 258300 135300 710500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-17 to 2021-07-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-16 31771 19308109 1430127 1596549 4601335 31026829 2780803 3485940 2642068 2090175 1496328 5835523 2269179 5514373 34053080 72127 558577 359487 906116 3853255 565214 349499 110044 2447381 1113100 37455 375271 196856 1399891 760163 324367 469701 495551 661888 463848 974677 607042 602801 326804 114663 1022876 99600 1027126 202780 343096 2124081 1116322 461885 211998 1220060 601803 842077 3037130 317684 684499 458521 679826 164933 63523
2021-07-17 31890 19389000 1431000 1600000 4614000 31036000 2825000 3500000 2657000 2094000 1503000 5858000 2296000 5522000 34100000 72130 558600 361900 907200 3855000 565800 349500 110100 2447000 1114000 37550 375300 196900 1400000 760200 324400 470000 498200 662100 464000 974700 607300 604400 326800 114700 1023000 99620 1028000 202800 343100 2125000 1117000 461900 212000 1220000 601800 842300 3043000 317700 684800 459000 680000 164900 63600
2021-07-18 32010 19426000 1431000 1603000 4627000 31053000 2866000 3519000 2666000 2097000 1509000 5881000 2314000 5528000 34112000 72130 558600 363300 908300 3855000 566300 349500 110100 2465000 1115000 37640 375300 196900 1400000 760200 324400 470100 499700 662300 464100 974700 607500 605600 326800 114700 1023000 99620 1028000 202800 343100 2126000 1117000 461900 212000 1220000 601900 842600 3046000 317700 684800 459000 680100 164900 63630
2021-07-19 32120 19451000 1432000 1606000 4640000 31066000 2907000 3540000 2674000 2099000 1514000 5904000 2325000 5535000 34139000 72150 558600 365500 909300 3855000 566600 349500 110100 2482000 1116000 37720 375300 197000 1400000 760500 324400 470300 502500 662500 464300 974700 607700 606900 327000 114800 1023000 99640 1028000 202900 343800 2126000 1117000 461900 212200 1220000 602600 842800 3051000 318000 684800 459000 680400 165000 63680
2021-07-20 32230 19506000 1432000 1608000 4652000 31078000 2947000 3563000 2687000 2100000 1518000 5925000 2337000 5542000 34172000 72150 558600 367400 910200 3855000 567200 349600 110100 2502000 1118000 37790 375300 197100 1401000 761000 324400 470600 504700 662700 464400 975300 607900 608200 327200 114800 1024000 99650 1029000 203000 344600 2127000 1117000 462000 212500 1220000 602900 843000 3055000 318400 684800 459000 680700 165100 63740
2021-07-21 32340 19564000 1433000 1609000 4663000 31090000 2987000 3582000 2699000 2103000 1521000 5947000 2354000 5548000 34206000 72320 559200 369500 911100 3855000 567800 349700 110100 2525000 1118000 37860 375300 197200 1401000 761400 324500 470800 506800 662900 464500 975300 608000 609500 327600 114800 1024000 99670 1029000 203100 345100 2127000 1117000 463300 212700 1221000 602900 843300 3061000 318600 684900 459200 680900 165200 63800
2021-07-22 32450 19609000 1433000 1611000 4675000 31100000 3030000 3606000 2714000 2105000 1526000 5969000 2373000 5555000 34244000 72320 559800 371300 912000 3855000 568500 349900 110100 2543000 1119000 37960 375300 197400 1402000 761900 325300 471100 509000 663100 464700 975400 608200 610900 328000 114900 1025000 99700 1029000 203200 345900 2128000 1117000 463300 213000 1221000 603300 843500 3065000 319100 685100 459600 681200 165300 63870
2021-07-23 32560 19655000 1434000 1613000 4686000 31110000 3069000 3625000 2722000 2107000 1531000 5992000 2391000 5561000 34283000 72530 560500 372100 913000 3857000 569000 350000 110200 2552000 1120000 38050 375300 197500 1403000 762300 326100 471300 509900 663300 464800 976100 608400 612300 328500 114900 1026000 99720 1030000 203300 346600 2129000 1118000 463500 213300 1221000 603900 843800 3068000 319500 685300 460000 681300 165300 63940

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-17 to 2021-07-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2021-07-16 5332371 33213776 653001 1103413 422873 484074 1670583 3749944 304429 4100222 99592 5771282 453200 361349 808725 281954 4281214 1777399 2881241 923747 1081539 1094287 258108 134092 707357
2021-07-17 5373000 33256000 653300 1104000 422900 484300 1671000 3751000 305300 4122000 99800 5779000 455900 361500 808700 282700 4283000 1787000 2881000 926800 1082000 1094000 258200 134200 707500
2021-07-18 5402000 33275000 653400 1105000 422900 484400 1671000 3751000 306000 4139000 99900 5782000 458200 361500 808700 283200 4284000 1794000 2881000 928900 1082000 1094000 258200 134300 707700
2021-07-19 5431000 33300000 653600 1105000 423000 484700 1671000 3751000 306700 4159000 99900 5785000 460700 361600 808800 283700 4284000 1801000 2881000 930600 1082000 1095000 258200 134400 708000
2021-07-20 5462000 33326000 653700 1106000 423000 485000 1671000 3752000 307400 4182000 100000 5790000 463400 361700 808800 284300 4285000 1808000 2881000 932700 1082000 1095000 258200 134600 708200
2021-07-21 5493000 33353000 653900 1108000 423100 485200 1672000 3752000 308200 4200000 100100 5792000 466000 361800 808900 284800 4286000 1815000 2882000 935000 1082000 1095000 258200 134700 708400
2021-07-22 5524000 33376000 654000 1108000 423100 485400 1672000 3753000 308900 4220000 100200 5795000 468500 361900 808900 285400 4286000 1822000 2882000 937100 1082000 1095000 258300 134800 708700
2021-07-23 5556000 33403000 654100 1109000 423100 485700 1672000 3753000 309700 4244000 100300 5798000 471000 362000 808900 285900 4287000 1829000 2882000 939100 1082000 1095000 258300 135000 708900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-17 to 2021-07-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-16 31771 19308109 1430127 1596549 4601335 31026829 2780803 3485940 2642068 2090175 1496328 5835523 2269179 5514373 34053080 72127 558577 359487 906116 3853255 565214 349499 110044 2447381 1113100 37455 375271 196856 1399891 760163 324367 469701 495551 661888 463848 974677 607042 602801 326804 114663 1022876 99600 1027126 202780 343096 2124081 1116322 461885 211998 1220060 601803 842077 3037130 317684 684499 458521 679826 164933 63523
2021-07-17 31860 19354000 1430000 1599000 4620000 31043000 2830000 3503000 2653000 2093000 1501000 5855000 2289000 5521000 34082000 72230 559100 360300 907200 3855000 565700 349600 110100 2459000 1114000 37570 375400 197000 1400000 760500 324900 470100 496600 662100 464000 974800 607200 604600 327100 114700 1023000 99630 1027000 202800 343500 2125000 1117000 462100 212200 1220000 602000 842400 3040000 318000 684700 458900 679900 165000 63580
2021-07-18 31920 19374000 1431000 1601000 4641000 31061000 2873000 3518000 2659000 2095000 1506000 5867000 2308000 5526000 34086000 72250 559100 360800 907900 3856000 565900 349600 110100 2464000 1114000 37640 375400 197000 1400000 760700 325000 470300 497100 662100 464000 974800 607300 605700 327200 114700 1023000 99650 1028000 202800 343700 2125000 1117000 462400 212200 1220000 602100 842800 3041000 318100 684800 458900 680000 165000 63620
2021-07-19 31970 19387000 1431000 1603000 4660000 31078000 2917000 3535000 2664000 2096000 1510000 5879000 2324000 5531000 34093000 72300 559200 361600 908600 3856000 566200 349600 110100 2470000 1116000 37700 375500 197100 1401000 761100 325200 470600 498000 662200 464100 974900 607500 606900 327500 114700 1024000 99670 1028000 203000 344300 2126000 1117000 462800 212500 1221000 602800 843200 3042000 318400 684900 459000 680100 165100 63690
2021-07-20 32020 19435000 1431000 1605000 4678000 31094000 2961000 3556000 2673000 2097000 1513000 5890000 2340000 5537000 34104000 72330 559200 362200 909300 3857000 566500 349800 110100 2476000 1117000 37750 375600 197200 1401000 761500 325400 470900 498800 662300 464100 975300 607600 608200 327800 114800 1025000 99690 1028000 203100 344900 2126000 1117000 463200 212700 1221000 603100 843600 3043000 318700 685100 459000 680200 165100 63760
2021-07-21 32060 19486000 1431000 1606000 4695000 31110000 3007000 3573000 2680000 2099000 1517000 5901000 2357000 5542000 34118000 72430 559500 362800 910100 3858000 567000 349800 110200 2482000 1117000 37800 375700 197300 1401000 761900 325600 471100 499300 662400 464200 975400 607800 609500 328100 114800 1025000 99720 1028000 203200 345400 2127000 1117000 463700 212900 1221000 603200 844000 3046000 319000 685200 459200 680300 165200 63820
2021-07-22 32110 19533000 1432000 1608000 4712000 31125000 3054000 3590000 2688000 2102000 1521000 5912000 2376000 5548000 34134000 72460 559700 363800 910900 3858000 567400 349900 110200 2486000 1118000 37860 375800 197500 1402000 762200 326000 471400 500200 662500 464300 975400 607900 610800 328400 114800 1026000 99740 1029000 203200 346000 2128000 1117000 464100 213100 1221000 603600 844400 3047000 319300 685400 459400 680400 165200 63890
2021-07-23 32150 19585000 1432000 1610000 4728000 31141000 3101000 3606000 2694000 2103000 1525000 5924000 2395000 5554000 34158000 72530 559800 364400 911600 3859000 567900 350000 110200 2491000 1119000 37920 375900 197600 1402000 762600 326400 471700 500700 662600 464400 975800 608100 612200 328700 114800 1026000 99760 1029000 203300 346600 2128000 1117000 464500 213300 1221000 604000 844900 3048000 319600 685500 459500 680500 165200 63960

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed