COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-25


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-07-25

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-062021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-122021-03-182021-04-112021-07-132021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-04-222021-03-262021-01-232021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 57008 209947 3238 4734 3757 3824 12260 20853 1343 22756 701 41469 2623 2177 8670 5772 34936 7911 27926 12346 5691 6121 1744 2814 921 2163
Days since peak 198 261 122 126 125 219 145 97 137 13 129 105 12 103 125 198 255 94 121 183 122 103 269 203 131 97
Last total 5697912 33763908 656270 1113465 423686 486836 1672409 3763018 311520 4280429 102972 5916568 475919 362621 809101 292996 4317415 1843521 2882146 953059 1082292 1096799 258651 392348 135767 712668
Last daily increment 28652 34110 332 0 57 282 69 1149 644 0 360 15242 1553 125 0 1126 4742 4584 80 2625 109 0 32 89 136 0
Last week 224435 389493 2272 6257 608 2156 1264 9798 4576 118579 2660 120115 16773 1008 237 7415 27887 36077 655 20519 614 2512 452 244 1233 3132
Previous peak date04-0704-1211-1110-2811-1603-2710-2912-1612-182021-01-2504-0411-022021-04-0712-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-2404-1011-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 4733 53170 7102 16479 3440 275 12261 23909 3420 37839 146 51646 2956 3555 5428 1117 5641 11037 24706 830 8601 8622 1196 8395
Low between peaks 425 3375 1324 1726 429 -1016 3514 7362 362 -30661 5 9751 336 312 1056 9 193 3436 5006 179 2309 2589 253 952

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-07-25

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-252021-05-052021-07-20 --2021-01-202021-04-102021-04-0212-222021-07-022021-04-162021-07-1612-062021-05-142021-07-122021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-19 --2021-01-082021-01-0911-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-232021-07-1411-162021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-022021-04-102021-04-0212-112021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-04-142021-04-2712-102021-01-1311-132021-06-112021-01-122021-07-122021-01-172021-04-012021-04-2610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74830 8650 7273 30105 387104 50443 16926 8699 10772 27989 18725 58966 33514 689 3779 1013 9264 42170 4983 2581 285 591 8874 174 4364 1492 12551 1869 2770 375 3876 5458 3015 454 7868 2115 57408 2963 1163 8240 156 914 793 5865 2334 2623 20372 17150 1199 822 10186 4871 1359 3142 21848 372 6324 173 1456 12274 1433 801
Days since peak 357 123 104 51 30 81 5 186 106 114 215 23 100 9 231 72 13 203 221 249 195 196 67 198 197 255 229 261 99 244 11 251 196 197 102 104 106 136 198 250 204 106 114 226 193 247 228 123 229 102 89 227 193 254 44 194 13 189 115 90 279 205 248
Last total 33082 19688663 1433792 1609177 4727846 31411262 3166505 3691432 2748518 2094445 1548755 6049215 2377823 5601608 34443761 73492 570667 372072 917168 3905946 569208 350855 49973 110569 2520547 1124449 39000 376664 198225 1407868 764448 328185 474435 512449 664477 465949 69904 977562 608906 622058 333180 115255 1031929 111227 221235 99851 1032893 203993 349043 2135944 1122104 466727 214869 1224390 606833 124960 849542 3077513 320300 688300 24657 464695 682077 165702 64251
Last daily increment 164 18129 267 1428 11048 39361 38679 27146 6535 0 5474 23517 9718 14230 15711 0 1536 980 1508 2938 0 0 0 68 0 0 259 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 306 0 0 0 1355 0 0 0 12 0 0 593 0 0 871 495 0 0 362 0 0 0 1398 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 962 296818 2414 8294 71925 236940 254772 142728 84074 0 35359 140524 75519 64222 311690 908 9747 10048 7886 40349 2617 956 180 373 73166 8161 1161 1393 1014 5159 2976 3001 3764 12914 1876 1613 430 2885 1598 14789 4050 513 6103 208 0 189 4478 848 3880 8439 4335 4842 2114 3040 3192 196 4928 33441 1509 2815 97 4376 1825 525 542
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1410-0508-0208-1005-092021-01-0612-102021-01-10 --2021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-062021-01-0311-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0504-302021-01-0907-1904-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-1407-24 -- --12-0911-2605-0104-0807-2307-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2704-0907-1605-0912-1411-0111-1405-26 --12-06 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45351 7805 7360 17013 92147 12371 24625 23278 8364 4292 10930 17714 720227 239099 3862 2815 3554 9152 729 1012 190 792 14764 22916 245 1648 975 3970 6415 303 3603 2160 2172 1017 579 7869 6769 5848 1273 2118 3013 89 4272 286 1108 15822 994 3935 1549 1625 1837 148 7643 27059 2491 1076 3223 50
Low between peaks 7 19228 2897 1343 3453 11268 3789 4595 1487 1194 4744 937 6214 10323 328 156 483 3186 179 72 31 124 2353 81 723 283 1757 759 94 95 428 -15 361 140 989 760 255 464 67 233 18 115 95 298 5685 386 160 276 424 764 56 213 9157 148 479 676 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-07-25 5697912 33763908 656270 1113465 423686 486836 1672409 3763018 311520 4280429 102972 5916568 475919 362621 809101 292996 4317415 1843521 2882146 953059 1082292 1096799 258651 392348 135767 712668
2021-07-26 5736000 33831000 656600 1116000 423700 486800 1672000 3764000 312300 4312000 103200 5927000 477400 362600 809200 294200 4322000 1850000 2882000 955200 1082000 1097000 258700 392300 135800 713100
2021-07-27 5790000 33897000 656900 1117000 423800 486900 1673000 3765000 313000 4328000 103700 5942000 480700 362700 809200 295300 4326000 1853000 2882000 957700 1082000 1098000 258700 392400 136000 713100
2021-07-28 5837000 33963000 657200 1117000 423800 487200 1673000 3767000 313800 4348000 104100 5957000 483100 362800 809200 296500 4330000 1856000 2882000 961600 1083000 1098000 258800 392400 136200 713100
2021-07-29 5879000 34034000 657600 1119000 423900 487400 1673000 3768000 314500 4368000 104400 5973000 485300 362900 809300 297600 4334000 1859000 2882000 964200 1083000 1098000 258800 392400 136400 713700
2021-07-30 5920000 34094000 657900 1120000 424000 487700 1673000 3770000 315200 4389000 104700 5988000 487700 363100 809300 298700 4339000 1863000 2883000 967200 1083000 1099000 258900 392500 136500 714500
2021-07-31 5959000 34138000 658300 1120000 424000 488000 1673000 3771000 315900 4389000 105200 6006000 490000 363200 809300 299900 4343000 1866000 2883000 970200 1083000 1099000 259000 392500 136700 714500
2021-08-01 5998000 34173000 658600 1120000 424100 488100 1673000 3772000 316600 4389000 105500 6022000 491500 363300 809300 301000 4347000 1871000 2883000 972700 1083000 1099000 259000 392500 136900 714500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-25 33082 19688663 1433792 1609177 4727846 31411262 3166505 3691432 2748518 1548755 6049215 2377823 5601608 34443761 73492 570667 372072 917168 3905946 569208 350855 110569 2520547 1124449 39000 376664 198225 1407868 764448 328185 474435 512449 664477 465949 69904 977562 608906 622058 333180 115255 1031929 111227 1032893 203993 349043 2135944 1122104 466727 214869 1224390 606833 849542 3077513 320300 688300 464695 682077 165702 64251
2021-07-26 33240 19703000 1434000 1611000 4740000 31447000 3167000 3717000 2749000 1552000 6074000 2391000 5614000 34537000 73550 571900 372100 919100 3912000 569800 350900 110600 2521000 1125000 39220 376700 198300 1408000 765000 328400 475300 515100 664600 466300 69990 977600 608900 624000 333200 115300 1033000 111200 1034000 204100 349600 2137000 1123000 466900 215000 1225000 607400 849800 3082000 321100 688500 465300 682600 165800 64340
2021-07-27 33370 19741000 1435000 1612000 4751000 31481000 3216000 3743000 2749000 1556000 6097000 2417000 5624000 34607000 73550 573300 372100 920600 3920000 570300 350900 110700 2523000 1125000 39400 376700 198500 1408000 765300 328400 475800 515400 664600 466500 70090 978300 609100 625800 333200 115400 1033000 111200 1034000 204100 350200 2137000 1124000 466900 215200 1226000 607400 849800 3088000 321400 688900 465700 682900 165800 64430
2021-07-28 33510 19794000 1435000 1613000 4760000 31516000 3263000 3768000 2754000 1561000 6118000 2437000 5633000 34688000 73680 575500 372500 922100 3927000 570800 351000 110700 2526000 1126000 39580 377700 198600 1408000 765700 328400 476500 517500 664600 466800 70130 978300 609200 627700 333200 115400 1033000 111300 1035000 204300 350800 2138000 1124000 468200 215400 1226000 607400 850000 3094000 321800 689200 466100 683100 165800 64540
2021-07-29 33650 19841000 1435000 1615000 4771000 31548000 3308000 3793000 2759000 1566000 6140000 2454000 5643000 34758000 73680 577100 372800 923700 3933000 571500 351100 110800 2526000 1127000 39790 377700 198800 1410000 766300 329000 476900 518300 664700 467100 70210 978300 609400 629500 333500 115500 1034000 111300 1035000 204400 351400 2139000 1125000 469000 215600 1227000 607400 850200 3099000 322300 689400 466700 683300 165900 64650
2021-07-30 33800 19924000 1436000 1616000 4783000 31580000 3352000 3817000 2759000 1572000 6162000 2470000 5652000 34871000 73860 578700 372800 925200 3939000 572100 351200 110900 2550000 1128000 39970 377700 198900 1411000 766800 330100 477600 519200 665100 467300 70250 979200 609800 631400 334100 115500 1035000 111300 1036000 204600 352000 2140000 1126000 469000 216100 1227000 608700 850500 3104000 322400 689700 467200 683500 166000 64720
2021-07-31 33940 19961000 1436000 1618000 4793000 31611000 3395000 3841000 2769000 1578000 6184000 2484000 5663000 34929000 73900 581000 373200 926800 3945000 572200 351200 111000 2553000 1128000 40170 377700 198900 1411000 766800 330100 477600 519200 665100 467600 70300 979300 609800 633300 334100 115600 1035000 111300 1037000 204600 352600 2141000 1126000 469000 216100 1228000 608700 850800 3109000 322400 689900 467800 683600 166000 64720
2021-08-01 34080 19980000 1437000 1619000 4804000 31643000 3439000 3866000 2776000 1583000 6206000 2498000 5675000 34932000 73900 581600 374400 928400 3951000 572300 351200 111000 2557000 1128000 40370 377700 198900 1411000 766800 330100 477600 519800 665100 467800 70320 979300 609800 635200 334100 115600 1035000 111400 1037000 204600 353200 2142000 1127000 469000 216100 1228000 608700 851200 3114000 322400 690100 468400 683600 166000 64720

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-07-25 5697912 33763908 656270 1113465 423686 486836 1672409 3763018 311520 4280429 102972 5916568 475919 362621 809101 292996 4317415 1843521 2882146 953059 1082292 1096799 258651 392348 135767 712668
2021-07-26 5736000 33816000 656600 1115000 423800 487200 1673000 3764000 312300 4301000 103200 5930000 477900 362700 809200 294100 4321000 1851000 2882000 955500 1082000 1097000 258700 392400 135900 712900
2021-07-27 5784000 33849000 656900 1116000 423800 487400 1673000 3765000 313300 4319000 103500 5941000 481600 362800 809200 295000 4322000 1859000 2882000 958200 1083000 1097000 258700 392400 136100 713200
2021-07-28 5828000 33882000 657200 1117000 423900 487800 1673000 3765000 314200 4340000 103800 5952000 484500 363000 809200 296000 4324000 1867000 2882000 961500 1083000 1097000 258800 392400 136200 713400
2021-07-29 5870000 33919000 657500 1118000 423900 488100 1673000 3766000 315100 4362000 104000 5963000 487100 363100 809300 297000 4327000 1874000 2882000 964200 1083000 1098000 258800 392500 136400 713800
2021-07-30 5911000 33948000 657800 1119000 424000 488400 1673000 3767000 315900 4382000 104100 5975000 489700 363200 809300 298100 4329000 1882000 2883000 967000 1083000 1098000 258800 392500 136500 714200
2021-07-31 5952000 33970000 658100 1119000 424000 488600 1674000 3768000 316700 4393000 104400 5987000 492500 363400 809300 299100 4331000 1891000 2883000 969500 1083000 1098000 258900 392500 136600 714500
2021-08-01 5993000 33989000 658400 1120000 424000 488700 1674000 3768000 317600 4404000 104500 5999000 494600 363400 809300 300200 4332000 1900000 2883000 972100 1083000 1098000 258900 392500 136700 714800

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-26 to 2021-08-01

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-07-25 33082 19688663 1433792 1609177 4727846 31411262 3166505 3691432 2748518 1548755 6049215 2377823 5601608 34443761 73492 570667 372072 917168 3905946 569208 350855 110569 2520547 1124449 39000 376664 198225 1407868 764448 328185 474435 512449 664477 465949 69904 977562 608906 622058 333180 115255 1031929 111227 1032893 203993 349043 2135944 1122104 466727 214869 1224390 606833 849542 3077513 320300 688300 464695 682077 165702 64251
2021-07-26 33200 19708000 1434000 1610000 4739000 31440000 3197000 3717000 2758000 1554000 6067000 2388000 5613000 34479000 73590 571800 373800 918300 3910000 569500 350900 110600 2527000 1125000 39200 376700 198300 1409000 764900 328500 474800 514000 664600 466200 69920 977700 609000 623900 333500 115300 1033000 111200 1033000 204100 349900 2137000 1123000 466900 215100 1225000 607500 850100 3081000 320700 688600 464700 682300 165800 64300
2021-07-27 33270 19741000 1434000 1611000 4750000 31457000 3241000 3741000 2767000 1557000 6078000 2402000 5621000 34504000 73630 572300 374900 919100 3913000 569900 351100 110700 2533000 1126000 39320 376700 198500 1409000 765300 328600 475200 514900 664700 466300 69970 978200 609300 625800 333900 115300 1034000 111300 1034000 204200 350500 2138000 1123000 467300 215600 1225000 607700 850800 3084000 321100 689000 464800 682500 165800 64370
2021-07-28 33340 19789000 1434000 1612000 4760000 31474000 3284000 3763000 2777000 1561000 6088000 2416000 5629000 34535000 73800 573000 376000 919900 3916000 570300 351200 110700 2540000 1127000 39470 377100 198600 1409000 765700 328800 475800 517600 664900 466500 69990 978200 609500 627700 334500 115300 1035000 111300 1035000 204300 351100 2139000 1123000 468400 215900 1226000 608000 851600 3088000 321600 689400 465000 682700 165800 64440
2021-07-29 33400 19835000 1435000 1613000 4771000 31490000 3333000 3784000 2787000 1565000 6099000 2429000 5637000 34568000 73840 573600 377100 920900 3920000 570800 351300 110700 2546000 1129000 39630 377100 198800 1410000 766200 329400 476200 519100 665000 466700 70030 978200 609700 629800 335200 115300 1036000 111300 1035000 204500 351800 2140000 1123000 469200 216200 1226000 608300 852300 3091000 322000 689800 465200 682900 165900 64530
2021-07-30 33470 19908000 1435000 1615000 4783000 31506000 3388000 3803000 2795000 1569000 6110000 2443000 5646000 34632000 73980 574000 378000 921900 3923000 571100 351500 110800 2557000 1130000 39780 377100 198900 1411000 766600 330000 476800 520900 665300 466800 70060 978900 609900 631900 335800 115400 1037000 111300 1036000 204600 352500 2141000 1124000 469700 216600 1227000 609100 853000 3093000 322300 690200 465500 683100 166000 64590
2021-07-31 33530 19940000 1435000 1616000 4796000 31523000 3442000 3822000 2804000 1573000 6122000 2458000 5654000 34653000 74030 574600 378400 922900 3926000 571400 351600 110800 2569000 1131000 39940 377200 199000 1412000 766800 330200 477200 521600 665400 467000 70090 978900 610100 633900 336300 115400 1037000 111400 1036000 204600 352700 2142000 1124000 469900 216900 1227000 609600 853700 3097000 322500 690500 465800 683200 166000 64630
2021-08-01 33600 19962000 1435000 1618000 4808000 31539000 3492000 3845000 2812000 1577000 6133000 2469000 5663000 34665000 74070 574900 379200 923900 3929000 571700 351700 110900 2576000 1132000 40100 377300 199000 1412000 767100 330400 477600 522900 665600 467100 70120 978900 610300 635900 336800 115400 1038000 111400 1037000 204600 353000 2144000 1124000 470200 217200 1228000 610000 854400 3099000 322700 690900 466100 683200 166000 64670

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed