COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-08-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-162021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-26 --2021-04-112021-07-132021-04-132021-03-222021-01-0811-122021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 42943 69830 3238 4734 3757 3824 12260 20853 1343 26120 41469 2629 2177 8670 5772 34933 9399 27926 3133 5691 6121 1744 2814 921 2163
Days since peak 24 13 137 141 140 234 160 112 152 14 120 27 118 140 213 270 25 136 20 137 118 284 218 146 112
Last total 6094243 34768235 663532 1141379 428823 496026 1675010 3800069 324721 4627770 112656 6208172 516785 365089 810011 313876 4400617 1887831 2884162 988061 1085100 1104538 260156 393059 141333 727113
Last daily increment 24881 62186 450 4653 774 585 104 2220 935 39638 449 0 2593 44 156 1411 4200 2026 64 1094 181 0 47 19 497 3145
Last week 170423 381590 3270 10621 2820 4350 1084 17725 5426 104460 4298 124105 15755 1116 339 9566 37243 15738 878 13858 1389 2638 670 308 2593 6370
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0712-1211-2904-1003-2412-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-05 -- --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57008 209936 7102 16479 3440 275 12261 23909 3420 37838 701 51646 2956 3555 5428 1117 5640 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 1196 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206801 1324 1726 429 -1016 3514 7362 362 -30661 9751 363 312 1056 9 193 416 5006 344 2309 2589 253 952

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-08-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-022021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-15 --2021-01-202021-04-102021-04-022021-07-122021-07-022021-04-162021-01-102021-07-062021-07-312021-01-062021-01-0312-162021-07-262021-01-11 --2021-05-19 --2021-01-08 --11-1212-0811-062021-04-1711-232021-08-02 --2021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-11 --11-17 --2021-04-102021-04-022021-08-022021-01-1311-2012-092021-03-2412-082021-07-28 --2021-08-012021-01-1311-132021-08-022021-01-122021-07-082021-08-02 -- --2021-07-282021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 74830 8650 7273 29826 387099 45830 16926 8699 10772 24513 19354 58966 239105 58 7106 2815 9264 42168 840 2581 591 8874 4364 1492 12551 1869 2770 2049 5458 3015 454 7868 2115 57408 1163 156 914 185 5865 2334 2623 20372 17150 2643 1680 4872 1359 3836 21848 332 2031 706 1433 801
Days since peak 372 138 119 66 44 96 25 201 121 129 28 38 115 211 34 9 215 218 236 14 210 82 213 270 244 276 114 259 7 211 212 117 119 121 151 265 121 129 7 208 262 243 138 244 12 8 208 269 7 209 32 7 12 220 263
Last total 37010 20177757 1449706 1624316 4843007 31998158 3686740 4199537 2978330 2125848 1667714 6384195 2540222 5942241 35948131 78085 612086 401486 948245 4063145 584378 358153 51589 112736 2766023 1188836 45041 382393 205033 1444150 786272 343203 500258 590020 677004 474555 71303 992782 618402 657862 365061 118270 1086820 112336 221235 101742 1049251 210436 366584 2178632 1143599 486129 230103 1242724 643621 125599 889890 3250897 330257 709319 25550 493508 697781 170199 67026
Last daily increment 380 12085 3209 953 4023 28204 20709 40808 6513 503 8798 21554 6756 46400 184346 852 4877 985 2191 16127 2769 1284 486 194 0 12647 432 0 942 7860 4946 2712 5135 16539 2520 586 -1 3056 1098 1047 6912 388 15686 0 0 439 854 1297 3010 2066 1269 0 3204 2728 9311 0 8964 12881 1424 4655 249 6529 2536 1037 573
Last week 1921 191940 8431 5859 35028 229026 190040 219810 97921 9196 55173 132242 69476 146576 710181 1897 19669 13278 14884 65512 6184 3186 789 1202 134751 28835 3226 3570 3001 16310 10586 9277 12396 32880 5592 4645 588 7540 3924 15650 14991 1237 27933 499 0 930 7609 3112 6437 20336 10801 11340 6739 9263 17583 374 19262 77978 3595 9977 492 13925 6925 2251 1322
Previous peak date03-2808-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1410-0508-0208-1012-222021-01-0612-10 --12-062021-01-0504-2207-0407-2011-1804-202021-01-1112-062021-01-0211-0308-2808-2709-0909-0412-0504-302021-01-092021-01-0604-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-08 --2021-01-0912-0911-2612-1104-0807-2307-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2812-1007-1705-0912-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-1905-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45351 7805 7360 17013 92146 12372 24625 23278 8364 4292 27987 17714 720227 689 3862 153 3554 9152 4983 1012 284 792 16684 22916 245 1648 975 3970 6415 303 3603 3847 2172 1017 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 7980 2118 3013 793 4272 286 1108 15822 994 3935 1460 10186 1827 148 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3223 12274 50
Low between peaks 7 19228 2897 1343 3453 11268 3789 4595 1487 1194 8230 937 6214 26 110 74 483 3186 374 72 124 2353 723 283 1757 759 94 108 -15 361 140 989 760 255 67 233 18 115 95 298 5685 386 -26 92 764 56 48 9158 148 126 10 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-09 6094243 34768235 663532 1141379 428823 496026 1675010 3800069 324721 4627770 112656 6208172 516785 365089 810011 313876 4400617 1887831 2884162 988061 1085100 1104538 260156 393059 141333 727113
2021-08-10 6119000 34843000 663500 1142000 429500 496400 1675000 3803000 325500 4664000 112700 6229000 520100 365200 810000 315200 4403000 1890000 2884000 992000 1085000 1106000 260200 393100 141600 727100
2021-08-11 6142000 34921000 663700 1144000 430000 497100 1675000 3807000 326200 4694000 113000 6250000 522500 365400 810100 315900 4407000 1894000 2884000 996000 1086000 1106000 260200 393100 142000 727600
2021-08-12 6166000 34994000 664000 1146000 430600 497600 1676000 3810000 326900 4719000 113500 6273000 524900 365500 810200 316800 4413000 1897000 2884000 999000 1086000 1107000 260300 393200 142500 728400
2021-08-13 6189000 35063000 664200 1147000 431300 498300 1676000 3814000 327700 4744000 114000 6294000 527400 365600 810200 317900 4419000 1900000 2884000 1001000 1086000 1107000 260400 393200 142900 729200
2021-08-14 6213000 35104000 664600 1147000 431800 498900 1676000 3817000 328400 4744000 114400 6312000 529800 365800 810200 319000 4425000 1902000 2884000 1004000 1086000 1107000 260500 393300 143000 729200
2021-08-15 6236000 35135000 664900 1147000 432200 499200 1676000 3820000 329200 4744000 115400 6330000 531200 366000 810200 320200 4430000 1905000 2885000 1006000 1086000 1107000 260600 393300 143300 729200
2021-08-16 6260000 35201000 665300 1151000 432700 499700 1676000 3821000 329900 4781000 115700 6330000 533400 366000 810400 321500 4433000 1907000 2885000 1007000 1087000 1107000 260600 393300 143800 731700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-09 37010 20177757 1449706 1624316 4843007 31998158 3686740 4199537 2978330 2125848 1667714 6384195 2540222 5942241 35948131 78085 612086 401486 948245 4063145 584378 358153 51589 112736 2766023 1188836 45041 382393 205033 1444150 786272 343203 500258 590020 677004 474555 71303 992782 618402 657862 365061 118270 1086820 112336 101742 1049251 210436 366584 2178632 1143599 486129 230103 1242724 643621 125599 889890 3250897 330257 709319 25550 493508 697781 170199 67026
2021-08-10 37330 20213000 1452000 1626000 4849000 32036000 3708000 4244000 2990000 2127000 1676000 6406000 2549000 5956000 36032000 78090 614700 402400 951400 4073000 584400 358200 51980 112900 2791000 1198000 45250 382400 205000 1444000 789800 345300 500300 597200 677000 475400 71390 993600 619000 659900 365100 118500 1087000 112300 102100 1050000 210400 367200 2181000 1145000 486100 230100 1245000 643600 125600 891600 3251000 330500 710200 25730 497900 697800 171000 67230
2021-08-11 37630 20255000 1455000 1627000 4853000 32076000 3732000 4283000 3003000 2129000 1683000 6426000 2564000 5956000 36032000 78320 617900 403800 954000 4073000 584800 358200 52260 113100 2794000 1203000 45370 384500 205200 1444000 792400 346800 500700 605100 677100 476100 71420 993600 619000 662100 365900 118500 1094000 112300 102300 1051000 210600 368000 2184000 1147000 493000 230100 1247000 643600 125700 891600 3251000 331000 710200 25850 500900 697800 171500 67230
2021-08-12 37940 20293000 1458000 1628000 4857000 32114000 3754000 4320000 3021000 2131000 1691000 6447000 2577000 5956000 36032000 78490 621200 405700 956600 4076000 585700 358300 52530 113300 2799000 1210000 45740 384500 205500 1446000 795500 350000 501800 613200 677600 476800 71510 993600 619000 664300 367900 118500 1104000 112400 102500 1053000 210900 368900 2187000 1149000 493400 230500 1249000 643600 125700 891600 3258000 331700 710200 25980 504100 698200 172200 67230
2021-08-13 38240 20331000 1460000 1630000 4861000 32151000 3775000 4350000 3035000 2132000 1701000 6467000 2589000 5958000 36075000 78810 624200 407900 959200 4082000 586500 358800 52790 113500 2858000 1218000 46100 384700 206000 1449000 798700 352500 503500 622200 678000 477500 71590 994500 619300 666400 369200 118600 1113000 112400 102700 1054000 211300 370100 2190000 1151000 494900 231400 1251000 644800 125700 891600 3272000 332200 710200 26100 507400 699200 172900 67230
2021-08-14 38540 20366000 1462000 1631000 4866000 32187000 3795000 4376000 3053000 2133000 1710000 6487000 2601000 5967000 36133000 78810 627600 409500 961800 4089000 586500 359000 53050 113700 2880000 1224000 46470 384700 206100 1449000 801300 353200 503800 628400 678400 478200 71730 994500 619600 668600 369200 118700 1119000 112500 103000 1055000 211300 370100 2193000 1153000 494900 231600 1252000 646700 125700 891600 3284000 332200 710200 26230 510700 699700 173400 67290
2021-08-15 38850 20379000 1464000 1632000 4868000 32223000 3816000 4413000 3059000 2135000 1719000 6507000 2609000 5980000 36207000 78810 628500 410900 964500 4097000 586500 359000 53320 113800 2880000 1227000 46860 384700 206100 1449000 803200 353700 503900 631900 678500 478900 71730 994500 620000 670700 369200 118800 1125000 112500 103200 1056000 211300 370100 2196000 1154000 494900 231600 1254000 646700 125700 892400 3286000 332200 710700 26370 514100 699800 173800 67410
2021-08-16 39150 20390000 1467000 1632000 4872000 32259000 3836000 4451000 3062000 2135000 1727000 6527000 2614000 5994000 36286000 79510 632000 411600 967200 4105000 588800 360000 53580 114000 2880000 1232000 47190 384700 206900 1455000 806000 355400 507900 646100 680600 479400 71730 995500 620500 672800 374400 118900 1131000 112500 103500 1057000 212400 372600 2198000 1156000 494900 234100 1256000 654000 125700 894200 3297000 333500 711600 26500 517500 701600 174300 67550

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-09 6094243 34768235 663532 1141379 428823 496026 1675010 3800069 324721 4627770 112656 6208172 516785 365089 810011 313876 4400617 1887831 2884162 988061 1085100 1104538 260156 393059 141333 727113
2021-08-10 6112000 34812000 663900 1143000 429200 496700 1675000 3802000 325500 4651000 113200 6223000 520500 365300 810000 315200 4404000 1890000 2884000 990000 1085000 1105000 260200 393100 141800 728000
2021-08-11 6128000 34850000 664300 1144000 429500 497500 1675000 3803000 326300 4677000 113600 6240000 523200 365500 810100 316300 4406000 1892000 2884000 993000 1086000 1105000 260300 393200 142100 728500
2021-08-12 6147000 34886000 664700 1146000 429700 498100 1676000 3804000 327100 4701000 114000 6258000 525800 365600 810100 317500 4409000 1894000 2885000 995000 1086000 1106000 260400 393200 142600 729000
2021-08-13 6166000 34920000 665100 1147000 430000 499000 1676000 3806000 327900 4724000 114500 6275000 528500 365800 810200 318700 4412000 1896000 2885000 996000 1086000 1106000 260400 393200 142900 729400
2021-08-14 6185000 34941000 665600 1148000 430200 499600 1676000 3807000 328600 4733000 114800 6290000 531000 366000 810200 320000 4415000 1897000 2885000 999000 1086000 1106000 260500 393300 143100 729500
2021-08-15 6205000 34958000 666000 1148000 430400 500000 1676000 3808000 329400 4743000 115400 6303000 532800 366100 810200 321300 4417000 1899000 2885000 1000000 1086000 1106000 260500 393300 143300 729600
2021-08-16 6225000 34994000 666300 1151000 430600 500500 1676000 3809000 330200 4781000 115600 6309000 535000 366200 810300 322600 4419000 1900000 2885000 1002000 1087000 1106000 260500 393400 143600 730500

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-09 37010 20177757 1449706 1624316 4843007 31998158 3686740 4199537 2978330 2125848 1667714 6384195 2540222 5942241 35948131 78085 612086 401486 948245 4063145 584378 358153 51589 112736 2766023 1188836 45041 382393 205033 1444150 786272 343203 500258 590020 677004 474555 71303 992782 618402 657862 365061 118270 1086820 112336 101742 1049251 210436 366584 2178632 1143599 486129 230103 1242724 643621 125599 889890 3250897 330257 709319 25550 493508 697781 170199 67026
2021-08-10 37280 20206000 1451000 1625000 4847000 32023000 3715000 4239000 2994000 2127000 1676000 6400000 2549000 5965000 36038000 78340 615200 403300 950200 4070000 585200 358500 51730 112900 2770000 1195000 45490 382500 205400 1447000 788200 344200 501900 596400 677700 475100 71390 995000 619100 659800 367100 118500 1090000 112400 101900 1050000 210800 367800 2182000 1145000 486400 231200 1244000 645700 125600 892900 3262000 330800 710700 25630 496500 698700 170600 67280
2021-08-11 37480 20248000 1452000 1626000 4853000 32042000 3748000 4275000 3010000 2129000 1682000 6410000 2560000 5983000 36085000 78600 617700 405100 951700 4072000 585800 358800 51780 113100 2782000 1197000 45840 383900 205700 1447000 789300 345000 503200 600800 678200 475700 71420 995400 619500 662200 368600 118600 1093000 112500 102000 1052000 211100 368600 2185000 1146000 490600 231800 1245000 646600 125700 894600 3267000 331300 711400 25690 497300 699000 170800 67390
2021-08-12 37680 20286000 1453000 1627000 4858000 32060000 3781000 4310000 3028000 2130000 1689000 6420000 2571000 6001000 36146000 78810 619800 407000 953500 4074000 586500 359200 51830 113200 2793000 1201000 46300 384300 206100 1449000 790500 346700 504700 605200 678700 476200 71470 995800 620000 664700 370400 118600 1097000 112500 102200 1053000 211500 369600 2188000 1147000 492300 232500 1246000 647800 125700 896500 3275000 331900 712100 25760 498500 699500 171100 67540
2021-08-13 37880 20330000 1454000 1628000 4863000 32078000 3814000 4340000 3043000 2131000 1697000 6430000 2582000 6019000 36305000 79100 621800 409000 955400 4078000 587200 359600 51890 113400 2817000 1206000 46790 384700 206500 1451000 791900 348000 506200 610000 679100 476800 71520 997600 620500 667000 371900 118700 1101000 112600 102300 1054000 211900 370700 2191000 1148000 493900 233400 1247000 649800 125700 898300 3287000 332400 712800 25820 499500 700200 171400 67680
2021-08-14 38050 20364000 1455000 1629000 4870000 32096000 3845000 4365000 3060000 2132000 1704000 6440000 2593000 6038000 36357000 79220 623900 410300 957300 4082000 587300 360000 51970 113500 2835000 1208000 47250 384900 206800 1452000 793100 348700 507100 612100 679500 477300 71590 997800 620900 669400 372800 118800 1102000 112700 102400 1055000 211900 371000 2194000 1148000 494600 233900 1248000 652000 125700 899900 3295000 332600 713500 25860 500500 700400 171600 67730
2021-08-15 38220 20381000 1455000 1630000 4875000 32114000 3873000 4399000 3070000 2133000 1711000 6451000 2602000 6057000 36400000 79350 625100 411400 959300 4086000 587400 360300 52030 113700 2846000 1210000 47710 385000 207000 1453000 794000 349400 508600 613500 679800 477800 71600 998100 621300 671600 373700 118800 1103000 112700 102500 1056000 212000 371300 2197000 1149000 495200 234400 1249000 653400 125800 901600 3298000 332900 714200 25900 501500 700700 171800 67800
2021-08-16 38380 20392000 1456000 1631000 4881000 32132000 3898000 4435000 3078000 2134000 1718000 6461000 2610000 6077000 36472000 79750 626800 412300 961200 4090000 588600 360900 52120 113900 2858000 1214000 48120 385300 207400 1455000 795500 350400 510600 617700 680600 478300 71600 998500 621800 673700 376000 118900 1109000 112800 102600 1057000 212500 373200 2199000 1150000 496000 235400 1250000 657000 125800 903800 3303000 333800 715000 26000 502600 701400 172100 67940

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed