COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-08-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-182021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-222021-08-132021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-19 --2021-04-11 --2021-04-132021-03-222021-01-082021-08-122021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-132021-08-112021-01-032021-03-162021-04-19
Peak daily increment 44279 68706 3238 4734 3757 834 12260 20854 1343 27277 41469 2177 8670 5772 6272 9508 27926 3346 5691 6122 181 2814 921 2163
Days since peak 33 24 148 152 151 7 171 123 163 32 131 129 151 224 8 36 147 31 148 129 9 229 157 123
Last total 6429147 35505997 674077 1163726 440066 506025 1677204 3863495 335722 4770453 120870 6450822 554055 368887 810781 333304 4471225 1913908 2886291 1014632 1089817 1116584 262904 393883 147778 752761
Last daily increment 36987 70344 1258 2168 1368 981 175 8966 923 12450 684 20503 3596 468 0 2098 7220 2209 212 2507 628 1018 333 84 720 2575
Last week 188136 382154 6236 13857 7104 5294 1124 38949 5795 76913 3874 111572 18818 2163 465 10315 36217 14261 1106 13514 2917 6437 1571 428 3743 17386
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-1810-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0612-1211-2904-1011-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-29 --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57010 209945 7102 16480 3440 3824 12260 23909 3421 37839 701 51646 3124 3555 5428 1117 34937 11037 24706 12346 8601 8622 1744 1196 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206810 1324 1726 429 87 3514 7362 362 -30661 9751 312 1056 9 720 416 5006 344 2309 2589 28 253 952

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-08-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-172021-08-112021-04-10 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-07-162021-08-022021-07-312021-08-132021-01-0312-162021-07-262021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-07-302021-01-08 --2021-08-1112-0811-062021-08-092021-08-052021-08-02 --2021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-11 --2021-08-032021-08-092021-04-102021-04-022021-08-092021-01-132021-08-0212-092021-03-242021-08-122021-08-11 --2021-08-122021-08-092021-08-112021-06-112021-01-122021-08-092021-08-02 -- --2021-08-092021-08-0911-19
Peak daily increment 74829 8650 7273 29826 387092 47189 42814 17853 8699 24495 19354 58966 38595 295 4478 2215 9264 42165 870 2581 285 591 26358 8874 1695 1492 12551 2090 1247 1894 5458 3015 454 7868 2115 57408 221 5132 156 914 164 5865 470 2623 20372 2593 3088 2253 2837 422 3142 21848 637 1602 1284 392 801
Days since peak 149 130 77 55 107 36 3 9 132 38 49 126 35 18 20 7 229 247 25 221 222 93 21 224 9 255 287 11 15 18 222 223 128 130 132 162 17 11 132 140 11 219 18 254 149 8 9 8 11 9 70 220 11 18 11 11 274
Last total 43119 20528099 1473801 1632441 4883932 32358829 3950304 4616516 3197108 2140062 1807800 6613107 2666964 6177660 37613597 82780 653540 427102 979579 4214437 598853 364626 53342 115841 3068524 1269077 52401 392962 212938 1482273 817149 357004 534421 649455 690243 484847 73454 1011661 633066 685767 406249 122318 1144894 114481 221235 104063 1069876 219096 378700 2227031 1175340 515681 252977 1267612 681659 128297 940942 3442026 338180 734079 26758 526850 714600 177533 70671
Last daily increment 891 33887 2998 752 3416 0 20004 28833 21734 1396 16797 20402 14312 19918 319456 466 3799 2267 3108 25880 1658 429 180 409 150736 9167 836 0 612 4884 4103 5495 3857 5920 1434 1206 185 4823 1728 2441 5048 441 6634 302 0 316 2946 844 1207 4084 3783 0 2142 2544 5228 304 6716 22928 738 2792 115 3812 1849 925 521
Last week 4022 177957 15475 4148 19303 166253 116763 227431 105137 7228 80569 122686 71517 117884 973326 3320 25635 12730 17170 89589 9413 4006 1141 1886 150736 52847 4025 5704 4885 24661 20416 8154 22206 35108 8399 5764 933 11961 8711 13015 25102 2454 37588 1256 0 1608 11038 5199 7574 25663 17558 15497 14514 14885 25346 1548 34115 107999 5123 16253 737 21179 9743 5536 2399
Previous peak date08-0408-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0912-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-062021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2011-1804-2005-0112-062021-01-0211-0308-2811-1209-0909-0412-0511-232021-01-092021-01-0604-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2007-192021-01-0812-082021-01-0912-0412-102021-01-1311-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-01 --
Previous peak daily increment 543 45350 7805 7360 17013 92144 12372 23864 23278 8364 10577 27994 17714 720226 239122 689 3862 2815 3554 9151 4983 1012 190 792 16683 22916 245 4364 975 3970 6415 2770 3603 3847 2172 1017 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 1163 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 1108 15822 17150 3935 1604 10186 4872 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3319 12274 1433
Low between peaks 19228 2897 1343 3453 11267 3789 8820 2152 1487 8232 937 6214 11114 26 110 156 483 3185 374 72 31 124 701 2353 55 283 1757 240 66 108 -15 361 140 989 760 255 41 225 67 233 16 115 59 298 5685 230 86 139 82 6 213 9157 148 126 70 35

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-20 6429147 35505997 674077 1163726 440066 506025 1677204 3863495 335722 4770453 120870 6450822 554055 368887 810781 333304 4471225 1913908 2886291 1014632 1089817 1116584 262904 393883 147778 752761
2021-08-21 6454000 35570000 675500 1164000 441200 507000 1677000 3871000 336700 4795000 121700 6480000 557600 369100 810800 334900 4477000 1916000 2887000 1017000 1090000 1117000 263200 393900 147800 756200
2021-08-22 6465000 35612000 676700 1164000 442100 507700 1677000 3877000 337400 4804000 122300 6501000 559400 369400 810800 336200 4482000 1918000 2887000 1019000 1091000 1117000 263400 394000 147900 757900
2021-08-23 6481000 35671000 677700 1168000 443400 508400 1678000 3882000 338200 4841000 122700 6503000 561800 369500 810900 337600 4485000 1920000 2887000 1019000 1091000 1117000 263500 394000 148300 762100
2021-08-24 6500000 35731000 678800 1170000 444600 509300 1678000 3889000 339000 4858000 123300 6519000 566000 369800 811000 339000 4489000 1922000 2887000 1021000 1092000 1118000 263800 394000 148900 765100
2021-08-25 6520000 35805000 679900 1172000 445800 510000 1678000 3896000 339800 4873000 124000 6546000 569300 370100 811000 340500 4496000 1924000 2887000 1024000 1092000 1119000 264000 394100 149200 768200
2021-08-26 6542000 35876000 681100 1174000 446900 511000 1678000 3902000 340700 4884000 124800 6569000 572500 370400 811100 342000 4503000 1926000 2888000 1026000 1092000 1120000 264300 394200 149900 770900
2021-08-27 6564000 35941000 682100 1176000 448100 511900 1678000 3909000 341600 4896000 125500 6590000 575900 370800 811200 343500 4509000 1928000 2888000 1028000 1093000 1121000 264600 394200 150500 772800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-20 43119 20528099 1473801 1632441 4883932 32358829 3950304 4616516 3197108 2140062 1807800 6613107 2666964 6177660 37613597 82780 653540 427102 979579 4214437 598853 364626 53342 115841 3068524 1269077 52401 392962 212938 1482273 817149 357004 534421 649455 690243 484847 73454 1011661 633066 685767 406249 122318 1144894 114481 104063 1069876 219096 378700 2227031 1175340 515681 252977 1267612 681659 128297 940942 3442026 338180 734079 26758 526850 714600 177533 70671
2021-08-21 43670 20567000 1476000 1634000 4892000 32390000 3986000 4642000 3214000 2142000 1823000 6634000 2676000 6199000 37614000 82780 654100 429400 982200 4226000 598900 364600 53340 116200 3069000 1269000 53330 393000 212900 1482000 817100 357000 534400 654700 690200 485500 73560 1012000 633100 689300 406200 122300 1145000 114700 104200 1072000 219100 378800 2234000 1178000 515700 255200 1269000 681700 128600 940900 3443000 338200 734100 26760 528600 714600 179400 70670
2021-08-22 44190 20585000 1476000 1635000 4896000 32447000 4009000 4674000 3214000 2144000 1838000 6654000 2684000 6225000 37614000 82780 657500 430800 984300 4227000 598900 364600 53340 116500 3069000 1269000 53920 393000 212900 1482000 817100 357000 534400 654700 690200 486300 73560 1012000 633100 691000 406200 122300 1145000 114900 104200 1073000 219100 378800 2238000 1181000 515700 257200 1271000 681700 128700 940900 3443000 338200 734100 26760 529100 714600 180200 70670
2021-08-23 44730 20600000 1476000 1636000 4900000 32491000 4024000 4711000 3224000 2144000 1853000 6673000 2690000 6248000 37758000 83420 659800 431400 986700 4234000 600900 365900 53730 116800 3069000 1279000 54330 393000 213700 1488000 820200 358900 537800 665300 692200 487000 73560 1014000 633300 692000 408400 122500 1155000 115000 104200 1074000 220100 381400 2242000 1183000 515700 259300 1273000 689000 129000 947700 3454000 339600 737600 26760 535400 716300 181800 70950
2021-08-24 45230 20636000 1476000 1636000 4906000 32528000 4049000 4751000 3239000 2146000 1867000 6691000 2699000 6270000 37856000 83700 663100 433600 989100 4243000 601800 366500 53730 117000 3069000 1285000 54520 393000 214400 1491000 821700 358900 539900 668400 693100 487800 73780 1014000 635500 694100 409100 123000 1157000 115300 104300 1076000 220500 382300 2246000 1186000 515700 261400 1275000 690300 129200 949800 3477000 340100 739000 26880 538000 717800 182900 71230
2021-08-25 45740 20673000 1476000 1637000 4910000 32564000 4073000 4790000 3263000 2147000 1882000 6710000 2711000 6292000 37966000 84060 666500 436100 991500 4253000 603200 367000 53850 117200 3069000 1290000 54910 396000 215200 1494000 823800 359600 542200 672400 694200 488700 73920 1016000 636300 697100 410100 123300 1160000 115400 104400 1078000 221100 383400 2251000 1188000 526900 263600 1277000 692500 129700 952900 3491000 340900 740700 26990 540900 719100 183900 71520
2021-08-26 46210 20708000 1478000 1638000 4914000 32597000 4094000 4823000 3285000 2148000 1896000 6729000 2725000 6312000 38092000 84700 670200 439100 994000 4263000 604800 367600 54000 117600 3069000 1298000 55460 396000 216000 1497000 827000 360100 546300 674900 695400 489700 74110 1016000 637600 699900 413100 123700 1166000 115600 104500 1080000 222100 384700 2255000 1191000 526900 265700 1280000 695700 130100 958600 3508000 341800 743300 27130 543700 720800 184900 71830
2021-08-27 46730 20740000 1479000 1638000 4917000 32628000 4115000 4852000 3307000 2150000 1911000 6748000 2738000 6333000 38381000 85050 673300 441400 996500 4275000 606100 368000 54150 117900 3243000 1305000 56290 396000 216600 1500000 830100 364500 549500 677800 696500 490700 74270 1021000 638800 702300 417400 124000 1172000 115800 104700 1082000 222800 385900 2259000 1193000 526900 268000 1283000 699900 130200 963500 3528000 342500 745400 27240 544200 722500 185400 72180

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-20 6429147 35505997 674077 1163726 440066 506025 1677204 3863495 335722 4770453 120870 6450822 554055 368887 810781 333304 4471225 1913908 2886291 1014632 1089817 1116584 262904 393883 147778 752761
2021-08-21 6458000 35549000 675100 1165000 441100 507000 1677000 3869000 336600 4775000 121500 6473000 557300 369300 810800 335100 4477000 1916000 2887000 1017000 1090000 1117000 263200 394000 148200 754700
2021-08-22 6478000 35569000 675900 1166000 441600 507600 1677000 3872000 337500 4781000 122000 6491000 559000 369600 810800 336800 4479000 1918000 2887000 1018000 1091000 1117000 263300 394000 148500 755600
2021-08-23 6499000 35598000 676600 1169000 442400 508300 1678000 3874000 338400 4802000 122300 6498000 561100 369800 810900 338500 4481000 1919000 2887000 1019000 1091000 1117000 263400 394100 148900 757600
2021-08-24 6522000 35626000 677300 1170000 443300 509200 1678000 3877000 339200 4814000 122800 6511000 565000 370100 810900 340100 4483000 1921000 2887000 1021000 1091000 1118000 263600 394100 149500 759200
2021-08-25 6544000 35663000 678200 1172000 443900 510000 1678000 3880000 340100 4829000 123200 6531000 567900 370400 811000 341800 4486000 1923000 2887000 1022000 1092000 1119000 263700 394200 149800 760600
2021-08-26 6568000 35699000 679000 1174000 444700 510900 1678000 3884000 341000 4844000 123800 6550000 570700 370600 811000 343500 4489000 1925000 2887000 1024000 1092000 1119000 263800 394200 150200 762200
2021-08-27 6591000 35734000 679800 1175000 445500 511800 1678000 3887000 341900 4859000 124400 6568000 573800 370900 811100 345200 4493000 1927000 2887000 1026000 1093000 1120000 264000 394300 150700 763700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-21 to 2021-08-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-20 43119 20528099 1473801 1632441 4883932 32358829 3950304 4616516 3197108 2140062 1807800 6613107 2666964 6177660 37613597 82780 653540 427102 979579 4214437 598853 364626 53342 115841 3068524 1269077 52401 392962 212938 1482273 817149 357004 534421 649455 690243 484847 73454 1011661 633066 685767 406249 122318 1144894 114481 104063 1069876 219096 378700 2227031 1175340 515681 252977 1267612 681659 128297 940942 3442026 338180 734079 26758 526850 714600 177533 70671
2021-08-21 43710 20560000 1476000 1633000 4887000 32381000 3973000 4640000 3220000 2142000 1822000 6628000 2679000 6198000 37700000 83090 656000 429300 982400 4226000 599400 364900 53430 116200 3092000 1273000 53280 393200 213400 1484000 819500 358000 537000 651000 690900 485800 73610 1013000 634000 688300 409500 122500 1147000 114700 104300 1072000 219400 379000 2232000 1178000 516900 254400 1270000 683700 128400 944600 3453000 338600 735700 26810 528700 715100 178300 70900
2021-08-22 44090 20574000 1476000 1634000 4889000 32402000 3991000 4672000 3227000 2143000 1833000 6638000 2687000 6221000 37730000 83220 658800 430700 985000 4230000 599600 365200 53430 116500 3104000 1275000 54080 393500 213700 1485000 820800 358600 538300 652100 691000 486400 73650 1013000 634600 690500 411500 122500 1147000 114800 104400 1074000 219400 379300 2236000 1179000 518100 255400 1272000 684600 128500 946600 3455000 339000 736600 26850 529400 715100 178800 71000
2021-08-23 44460 20587000 1477000 1635000 4892000 32421000 4005000 4707000 3241000 2143000 1843000 6647000 2695000 6242000 37879000 83710 660900 431600 987500 4234000 601200 366000 53740 116700 3116000 1285000 54740 394000 214500 1490000 823800 360100 541500 660500 692100 486900 73680 1015000 635300 692600 415800 122700 1159000 115000 104500 1075000 220600 381400 2240000 1181000 519700 258300 1274000 691400 128600 951600 3465000 340000 738300 26900 531800 716200 179700 71340
2021-08-24 44850 20618000 1478000 1635000 4895000 32439000 4025000 4743000 3257000 2145000 1854000 6656000 2704000 6264000 37987000 84030 663400 433400 990000 4239000 602000 366600 53760 117000 3128000 1292000 55320 394300 215100 1493000 826000 360600 544000 663900 692700 487400 73850 1015000 636800 694800 418800 123000 1162000 115200 104600 1077000 221100 382400 2243000 1182000 521200 260600 1276000 693700 128600 954900 3484000 340600 739600 27080 532900 717300 180300 71640
2021-08-25 45250 20657000 1479000 1636000 4897000 32456000 4045000 4775000 3278000 2146000 1864000 6666000 2715000 6284000 38101000 84360 665900 435400 992700 4244000 603000 367100 53820 117200 3139000 1298000 55850 397000 215800 1496000 828200 361600 546500 668000 693300 488100 73930 1017000 637800 697100 421800 123200 1166000 115300 104800 1078000 221700 383400 2248000 1183000 529000 262500 1278000 696200 128900 958900 3495000 341300 741000 27180 534000 718100 181100 71920
2021-08-26 45600 20691000 1480000 1637000 4900000 32473000 4067000 4804000 3298000 2147000 1875000 6675000 2726000 6307000 38202000 84750 668300 437400 995300 4249000 604000 367700 53890 117500 3151000 1304000 56480 397300 216400 1499000 830500 362500 549200 672500 693900 488800 74020 1017000 638800 699400 424700 123500 1171000 115500 105000 1080000 222500 384700 2252000 1184000 530100 264500 1281000 698900 129000 963300 3505000 342000 742600 27310 535500 719000 181800 72170
2021-08-27 45970 20725000 1482000 1637000 4902000 32490000 4090000 4832000 3316000 2148000 1886000 6685000 2737000 6328000 38438000 85070 670700 439400 998000 4255000 604800 368200 53960 117800 3222000 1310000 57340 397600 216900 1502000 832700 364700 551800 678100 694500 489400 74120 1019000 639800 701600 428700 123600 1176000 115600 105100 1082000 223200 385900 2257000 1186000 531100 266700 1283000 702700 129100 967000 3518000 342600 743800 27440 536500 720000 182400 72430

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed