COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-26


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-08-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-262021-03-252021-03-212021-03-222021-08-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-11 --2021-04-132021-03-222021-07-262021-08-122021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-03 --2021-08-16
Peak daily increment 43875 69606 3238 4734 3757 897 12260 20853 1343 28885 757 41469 2177 8670 1270 6291 9508 27926 3219 5691 6122 1744 2814 2244
Days since peak 40 31 154 158 157 8 177 129 169 31 14 137 135 157 31 14 42 153 37 154 135 301 235 10
Last total 6628709 35885835 681617 1175575 448431 511879 1678331 3923250 341549 4822320 124285 6557287 573605 371623 811517 344195 4509611 1929018 2887485 1028421 1093924 1122139 265159 394446 153534 768001
Last daily increment 37962 69351 1438 2467 1733 1257 248 11688 982 7115 650 19404 3528 638 180 1866 7215 2594 215 2552 953 1511 510 161 1415 2811
Last week 199562 379838 7540 11849 8365 5854 1127 59755 5827 51867 3415 106465 19550 2736 736 10891 38386 15110 1194 13789 4107 5555 2255 563 5756 15240
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-1810-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0612-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-05 -- --2021-03-2211-02
Previous peak daily increment 57009 209947 7102 16480 3440 3824 12261 23909 3421 37837 701 51646 3124 3555 5428 5772 34934 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 992 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206811 1324 1726 429 87 3514 7362 362 -30661 67 9751 312 1056 219 720 416 5006 344 2309 2589 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-08-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-172021-08-182021-04-10 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-07-23 --2021-07-312021-08-182021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-102021-05-192021-08-212021-01-082021-08-2011-1212-0811-062021-08-162021-08-05 -- --2021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-11 --2021-08-162021-08-162021-08-182021-04-022021-08-162021-01-132021-08-1612-092021-03-2412-08 --2021-08-232021-08-12 --2021-08-11 --2021-01-122021-08-162021-08-162021-08-172021-08-232021-08-16 --2021-08-16
Peak daily increment 74829 8650 7273 29826 387080 47189 38055 18098 8699 24496 19354 58966 60803 4363 2257 9264 42166 4983 2581 285 591 32378 8874 776 4364 1492 12551 2555 1238 5458 3015 454 7868 2115 57408 319 5308 226 914 203 5865 729 2623 20372 17150 2713 2231 295 21848 692 2163 121 3948 1451 302
Days since peak 155 136 83 61 113 42 9 8 138 44 55 132 34 26 8 235 253 281 227 228 99 5 230 6 287 261 293 10 21 228 229 134 136 138 168 10 10 8 146 10 225 10 260 155 261 3 14 15 226 10 10 9 3 10 10
Last total 48816 20676561 1490617 1635958 4899085 32603188 4043736 4833135 3291761 2143691 1899200 6728699 2734973 6293267 38384360 85832 676795 438938 998163 4293121 607959 368670 54366 117783 3068524 1319245 56492 400075 217052 1502955 838869 363356 557826 675899 697955 491174 74699 1021094 641794 698066 423599 124910 1181166 116022 221235 105688 1081143 223823 385272 2254043 1197873 530411 265210 1284532 707435 130337 975360 3534862 343158 751132 27482 545081 724717 183354 72995
Last daily increment 976 31024 3420 785 1935 44658 16899 36758 20633 0 16112 19094 12771 19616 161331 727 11142 2261 6854 13164 1810 795 210 429 0 10422 824 0 992 4032 4901 37 5334 5126 1764 1244 390 0 1856 2634 3425 632 8813 354 0 332 2062 921 1137 5368 5395 0 2046 3333 4541 471 11053 14044 1065 3491 149 3801 2264 1448 467
Last week 5697 148462 16816 3517 15153 209902 93432 216619 94653 3629 91400 115592 68009 115607 770763 3052 23255 11836 18584 78684 9106 4044 1024 1942 0 50168 4091 7113 4114 20682 21720 6352 23405 26444 7712 6327 1245 9433 8728 12299 17350 2592 36272 1541 0 1625 11267 4727 6572 27012 22533 14730 12233 16920 25776 2040 34418 92836 4978 17053 724 18231 10117 5821 2324
Previous peak date08-0408-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1710-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-062021-01-052021-01-0607-0407-2004-2404-2005-0112-062021-01-0211-0308-2708-2709-0909-0412-0511-232021-01-072021-01-1004-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2007-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1611-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Previous peak daily increment 543 45350 7805 7360 17013 92141 12372 23838 23278 8364 10772 27995 17714 720225 239128 689 3862 2815 3554 9151 729 1012 190 792 16683 22916 245 1648 975 3970 6415 2770 3854 3358 2172 1017 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 1163 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 1108 15822 994 3935 1549 10186 5175 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3223 12274 1433 801
Low between peaks 19228 2897 1343 3453 11267 3789 8820 2152 1487 8232 937 6214 11114 110 156 483 3185 179 72 31 124 701 2353 38 723 283 1757 240 66 -15 361 140 989 760 255 41 225 11 233 18 115 59 298 5685 386 131 139 -12 9157 148 126 3 329 70 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-26 6628709 35885835 681617 1175575 448431 511879 1678331 3923250 341549 4822320 124285 6557287 573605 371623 811517 344195 4509611 1929018 2887485 1028421 1093924 1122139 265159 394446 153534 768001
2021-08-27 6659000 35956000 682700 1177000 449700 512300 1678000 3939000 342500 4852000 125400 6586000 578100 371600 811600 346100 4515000 1931000 2888000 1031000 1095000 1123000 265600 394400 154600 768400
2021-08-28 6676000 36007000 683800 1177000 450600 513000 1679000 3950000 343300 4860000 126100 6610000 581000 371700 811700 347800 4522000 1933000 2888000 1033000 1096000 1123000 266000 394500 155300 768400
2021-08-29 6698000 36045000 684900 1177000 451100 513400 1679000 3960000 344200 4862000 126700 6629000 582500 371900 811800 349500 4527000 1936000 2888000 1035000 1096000 1123000 266300 394600 156100 768400
2021-08-30 6723000 36098000 685800 1182000 452600 514000 1679000 3969000 345000 4889000 127100 6631000 584200 372000 812100 351200 4530000 1938000 2888000 1036000 1097000 1123000 266500 394600 157000 771200
2021-08-31 6749000 36168000 686700 1183000 454200 514800 1679000 3981000 345900 4903000 127800 6652000 588200 372300 812200 353000 4536000 1940000 2888000 1038000 1098000 1125000 267000 394600 157900 773300
2021-09-01 6777000 36241000 687900 1186000 455600 516000 1679000 3990000 346800 4913000 128400 6674000 590500 372800 812400 354800 4543000 1942000 2888000 1041000 1099000 1126000 267500 394700 158900 776300
2021-09-02 6805000 36306000 689200 1188000 457300 517000 1680000 3999000 347700 4923000 129000 6693000 592400 373300 812500 356500 4549000 1944000 2889000 1043000 1099000 1127000 267800 394800 159800 778800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-26 48816 20676561 1490617 1635958 4899085 32603188 4043736 4833135 3291761 2143691 1899200 6728699 2734973 6293267 38384360 85832 676795 438938 998163 4293121 607959 368670 54366 117783 1319245 56492 400075 217052 1502955 838869 363356 557826 675899 697955 491174 74699 1021094 641794 698066 423599 124910 1181166 116022 105688 1081143 223823 385272 2254043 1197873 530411 265210 1284532 707435 130337 975360 3534862 343158 751132 27482 545081 724717 183354 72995
2021-08-27 49640 20720000 1493000 1637000 4902000 32637000 4066000 4873000 3318000 2147000 1910000 6748000 2746000 6312000 38615000 85900 678500 442000 1002000 4306000 608600 369000 54500 118100 1321000 56920 401300 217600 1506000 838900 365900 562300 684900 698700 491800 75220 1024000 642200 700300 428500 125600 1184000 116500 105900 1084000 224400 386500 2258000 1203000 530400 266300 1287000 713200 130300 976000 3554000 343200 751600 27590 547600 727500 183400 73080
2021-08-28 50410 20753000 1493000 1638000 4904000 32671000 4083000 4899000 3337000 2149000 1923000 6767000 2757000 6331000 38620000 85900 682900 444300 1005000 4314000 608600 369000 54500 118400 1321000 57390 403000 217600 1506000 838900 365900 562300 684900 698700 492600 75560 1024000 642200 703000 428500 125700 1184000 116800 105900 1086000 224400 386500 2264000 1207000 532900 266300 1288000 713200 130300 976000 3565000 343200 751600 27620 547600 727900 183400 73080
2021-08-29 51100 20767000 1493000 1639000 4905000 32703000 4095000 4936000 3342000 2150000 1937000 6785000 2766000 6345000 38620000 85900 686100 445500 1009000 4324000 608600 369000 54500 118700 1321000 58070 405000 217600 1506000 838900 365900 562300 684900 698700 493500 75720 1024000 642200 705400 428500 125800 1184000 117100 105900 1087000 224400 386500 2268000 1211000 535100 266300 1290000 713200 130300 976000 3566000 343200 751600 27680 547600 728400 183400 73080
2021-08-30 51660 20780000 1494000 1640000 4907000 32735000 4105000 4973000 3349000 2150000 1951000 6802000 2773000 6364000 38812000 86540 688600 446300 1012000 4335000 610900 370300 54940 118900 1333000 58540 407400 218300 1513000 842500 365900 567900 697400 701100 494200 75850 1026000 642500 707600 434400 126400 1197000 117400 106000 1089000 225800 389200 2271000 1215000 538700 269200 1292000 724100 130300 986700 3578000 343800 755600 27770 554100 731800 183800 73510
2021-08-31 52310 20812000 1496000 1640000 4909000 32767000 4124000 5013000 3366000 2152000 1962000 6820000 2782000 6381000 38913000 86970 690000 448400 1016000 4347000 612000 371100 55000 119100 1339000 59150 410500 219200 1515000 844600 367400 570100 701200 702000 495000 76340 1026000 645400 709800 437300 127000 1200000 117900 106200 1091000 226500 390000 2274000 1219000 543900 271500 1294000 726800 130800 989700 3600000 344000 757500 27850 556300 734200 184600 73880
2021-09-01 53010 20842000 1498000 1640000 4910000 32798000 4139000 5051000 3388000 2152000 1974000 6837000 2794000 6397000 39049000 87490 691500 451000 1020000 4359000 613700 371700 55160 119400 1348000 59650 420900 220200 1519000 849100 370000 572600 707100 703400 496100 76660 1030000 646700 711900 440700 127500 1205000 118300 106400 1093000 227300 391300 2278000 1223000 561700 274000 1296000 729700 131200 991000 3620000 344600 760500 27950 559600 736400 185600 74330
2021-09-02 53710 20873000 1500000 1641000 4912000 32830000 4156000 5085000 3409000 2153000 1988000 6855000 2805000 6420000 39182000 88180 699400 453200 1023000 4371000 615200 372400 55320 119800 1356000 60340 420900 221000 1523000 853000 370100 575300 711900 704800 497100 76860 1030000 648200 714000 444000 128000 1212000 118500 106600 1095000 228100 392300 2283000 1227000 561700 276000 1298000 732900 131600 999800 3633000 345600 763200 28050 563200 738000 186700 74690

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-08-26 6628709 35885835 681617 1175575 448431 511879 1678331 3923250 341549 4822320 124285 6557287 573605 371623 811517 344195 4509611 1929018 2887485 1028421 1093924 1122139 265159 394446 153534 768001
2021-08-27 6659000 35939000 682900 1178000 449800 512900 1679000 3934000 342500 4832000 124900 6576000 577300 372100 811600 346000 4515000 1931000 2888000 1031000 1095000 1123000 265500 394500 154600 770300
2021-08-28 6682000 35964000 683900 1178000 450700 513800 1679000 3939000 343400 4835000 125500 6594000 580300 372400 811600 347700 4518000 1933000 2888000 1033000 1095000 1123000 265800 394600 155200 771300
2021-08-29 6706000 35983000 684900 1179000 451300 514300 1679000 3943000 344300 4838000 126000 6609000 582100 372700 811600 349300 4521000 1935000 2888000 1034000 1096000 1123000 265900 394700 155900 772100
2021-08-30 6730000 36008000 685800 1182000 452400 515000 1679000 3947000 345200 4854000 126300 6613000 584500 372900 811800 351000 4522000 1937000 2888000 1035000 1096000 1123000 266100 394700 156600 774700
2021-08-31 6754000 36042000 686600 1183000 453600 515900 1679000 3952000 346100 4865000 126800 6629000 588600 373200 811900 352700 4525000 1939000 2888000 1037000 1097000 1124000 266300 394800 157300 776200
2021-09-01 6781000 36077000 687800 1185000 454600 516900 1679000 3957000 347000 4875000 127200 6648000 591600 373500 811900 354300 4528000 1941000 2888000 1039000 1098000 1125000 266600 394800 158000 777500
2021-09-02 6807000 36110000 688800 1187000 455600 517800 1679000 3962000 348000 4885000 127800 6665000 594600 373800 812000 356000 4531000 1943000 2889000 1040000 1098000 1125000 266800 394900 158700 778700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-27 to 2021-09-02

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-08-26 48816 20676561 1490617 1635958 4899085 32603188 4043736 4833135 3291761 2143691 1899200 6728699 2734973 6293267 38384360 85832 676795 438938 998163 4293121 607959 368670 54366 117783 1319245 56492 400075 217052 1502955 838869 363356 557826 675899 697955 491174 74699 1021094 641794 698066 423599 124910 1181166 116022 105688 1081143 223823 385272 2254043 1197873 530411 265210 1284532 707435 130337 975360 3534862 343158 751132 27482 545081 724717 183354 72995
2021-08-27 49680 20707000 1493000 1637000 4901000 32634000 4061000 4862000 3312000 2144000 1914000 6743000 2747000 6313000 38694000 86340 680100 441100 1001000 4303000 609400 369300 54530 118100 1329000 57260 401100 217800 1507000 842600 366200 562400 682300 699100 492200 74980 1024000 643400 700300 427600 125500 1188000 116300 105900 1084000 224600 386400 2258000 1201000 531900 267300 1287000 712700 130600 981000 3554000 344000 753700 27600 548200 726800 184100 73410
2021-08-28 50330 20737000 1494000 1638000 4903000 32651000 4076000 4884000 3330000 2145000 1928000 6752000 2758000 6332000 38732000 86560 683500 442900 1004000 4308000 609700 369600 54530 118500 1331000 57970 401800 218200 1508000 844200 366700 565500 683200 699300 493000 75130 1025000 644000 702600 429600 125500 1189000 116500 106100 1086000 224700 386700 2263000 1203000 533400 268400 1289000 715300 130600 983000 3563000 344300 754600 27680 548500 726900 184600 73550
2021-08-29 50960 20747000 1495000 1638000 4905000 32667000 4087000 4914000 3339000 2146000 1941000 6761000 2768000 6349000 38746000 86800 685900 444000 1007000 4313000 610000 369900 54530 118800 1333000 58730 402400 218600 1509000 845900 367300 568600 683900 699500 493700 75180 1025000 644700 704600 431600 125600 1190000 116700 106300 1087000 224800 386900 2267000 1205000 534900 269500 1291000 717700 130600 985000 3564000 344800 755500 27760 548700 726900 185100 73680
2021-08-30 51550 20757000 1496000 1639000 4907000 32683000 4096000 4945000 3349000 2147000 1955000 6770000 2777000 6367000 38940000 87430 687800 444900 1009000 4319000 612000 370900 54870 119100 1347000 59320 403200 219400 1516000 850300 368100 572300 693700 700900 494300 75230 1027000 645800 706400 436600 125900 1204000 116900 106500 1089000 226200 389100 2270000 1207000 536700 272400 1294000 724600 130700 995000 3572000 345900 758700 27850 553400 728600 186000 74150
2021-08-31 52170 20788000 1498000 1639000 4909000 32698000 4114000 4981000 3366000 2148000 1967000 6779000 2786000 6384000 39052000 87860 689400 446500 1012000 4325000 612800 371600 54920 119400 1354000 59990 404000 220100 1518000 853000 369400 575700 697400 701500 494800 75420 1028000 647900 708400 439700 126400 1207000 117100 106700 1090000 226900 390000 2274000 1208000 538500 274500 1296000 728000 130900 999000 3588000 346500 760400 27980 555100 729900 186800 74490
2021-09-01 52820 20820000 1500000 1640000 4912000 32713000 4129000 5013000 3386000 2149000 1978000 6788000 2797000 6401000 39173000 88280 691800 448400 1014000 4331000 613800 372200 55010 119700 1361000 60590 407900 220900 1522000 856000 370700 579100 702600 702200 495500 75560 1030000 649000 710700 443200 126600 1213000 117400 106900 1092000 227500 391000 2278000 1210000 546800 276600 1298000 731500 131100 1002000 3601000 347200 762000 28090 557300 730800 187600 74810
2021-09-02 53460 20853000 1501000 1641000 4914000 32729000 4145000 5041000 3406000 2150000 1991000 6797000 2809000 6420000 39294000 88800 695100 450400 1017000 4337000 614900 372800 55120 120000 1369000 61210 408300 221700 1525000 859000 371500 582500 707900 702900 496200 75660 1031000 650200 713100 447200 127000 1220000 117600 107100 1093000 228500 392200 2282000 1212000 548000 278800 1301000 735200 131200 1008000 3611000 348100 763700 28230 560000 731700 188300 75120

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed