COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-09-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-222021-08-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-262021-04-132021-03-222021-07-262021-08-212021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-1310-292021-01-03 --2021-08-23
Peak daily increment 43890 69578 3237 4980 3756 911 12262 20926 1362 26568 737 42653 3271 2181 8671 1278 6414 9516 27942 3220 5701 6130 1746 2815 2541
Days since peak 46 36 160 164 163 14 183 132 175 37 20 143 6 141 163 37 11 48 159 43 160 141 307 241 9
Last total 6825074 36220327 690153 1187506 457487 517799 1679476 3979839 346518 4861883 127861 6635813 590832 374803 812531 354236 4546487 1943882 2889036 1039492 1100208 1127917 267962 395122 161814 782869
Last daily increment 35493 82426 1848 2842 1745 1258 287 14158 825 6818 679 30745 2868 805 194 1789 6496 2827 366 1565 1443 1104 764 199 1640 3203
Last week 196365 334492 8536 11931 9056 5920 1145 56589 4969 39563 3576 78526 17227 3180 1014 10041 36876 14864 1551 11071 6284 5778 2803 676 8280 14868
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-1810-2612-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-032021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-172021-01-05 -- --2021-03-2311-02
Previous peak daily increment 57056 210476 7110 16473 3443 3823 12285 23895 3419 37891 701 51954 2958 3554 5428 5771 34940 11039 24662 12347 8603 8567 940 8404
Low between peaks -2803 -210951 1329 1726 429 87 3593 7354 362 -30756 67 10020 360 312 1056 219 716 422 5007 345 2312 2601 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-09-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-172021-08-182021-04-09 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-08-23 -- --2021-08-182021-01-032021-08-202021-08-232021-01-112021-01-102021-05-19 --2021-01-08 -- --12-0811-062021-08-232021-08-05 --2021-08-092021-01-102021-01-092021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-08-232021-08-252021-08-232021-04-052021-04-022021-08-232021-01-132021-08-2312-092021-03-2412-08 -- --12-10 --11-13 --2021-01-122021-08-232021-08-232021-08-17 --2021-08-16 --2021-08-23
Peak daily increment 74845 8651 7273 29826 387042 47193 37663 18079 8725 24495 19350 58965 151679 2206 9263 13908 1516 2579 285 595 8865 1493 12563 3311 1419 5482 5454 3015 455 7859 2114 57080 3578 428 6043 156 940 252 5865 818 2623 20523 17473 10187 1362 21848 771 2686 124 1493 368
Days since peak 161 142 89 67 119 48 15 14 145 50 61 138 9 14 241 12 9 233 234 105 236 267 299 9 27 23 234 235 140 142 144 174 9 7 9 149 152 9 231 9 266 161 267 265 292 232 9 9 15 16 9
Last total 56560 20804215 1511046 1639123 4911082 32857937 4100138 5025233 3369747 2150006 2003955 6838652 2787203 6412247 39396156 88974 704420 451114 1016663 4382929 617982 372529 55570 119942 3220284 1371802 61800 408382 222548 1528011 863299 374122 581973 691687 706861 498376 76289 1036553 650897 710041 439661 128098 1220901 117955 221235 107503 1093449 228712 392052 2282726 1228002 549980 279087 1303699 740634 132837 1019734 3639659 348300 769842 28379 565461 736263 191156 76007
Last daily increment 1467 27345 3954 448 1996 47092 10337 33170 17337 415 14098 17955 9544 23946 198025 795 4691 2953 4740 22486 2193 720 139 328 0 9277 447 8307 1163 5175 4733 4206 4931 12361 1791 1374 434 5298 1432 2887 2939 871 7248 458 0 350 2304 854 1452 4244 7102 19569 2800 3331 5347 578 8999 27413 1123 3407 200 4027 2323 1466 871
Last week 7744 127654 20429 3165 11997 254749 56402 192098 77986 3837 104755 109953 52230 118980 1011747 3142 27625 12176 18500 89808 10023 3859 1204 2159 151760 52557 5308 8307 5496 25056 24430 10766 24147 15788 8906 7202 1590 15459 9103 11975 16062 3188 39735 1933 0 1815 12306 4889 6780 28683 30129 19569 13877 19167 33199 2500 44374 104797 5142 18710 897 20380 11546 7802 3012
Previous peak date08-0408-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0912-222021-01-0612-102021-01-1012-052021-01-072021-01-0607-0412-1611-1804-2005-0112-062021-01-0311-0308-2711-1209-0909-0412-0511-162021-01-0711-1604-1705-062021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0912-0911-2612-1104-0811-2007-192021-01-0804-192021-01-0912-0404-092021-01-1608-2712-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0811-19
Previous peak daily increment 525 45269 7807 7348 17013 92152 12373 23863 22832 8379 10589 27995 17701 720119 239083 707 4013 2817 3558 42164 4984 1011 190 792 14682 21992 245 4362 986 3933 6415 3244 3849 3407 2172 1017 578 7920 6763 5848 2921 1163 7977 2132 3072 793 4272 2333 1108 15820 1004 3943 1604 1625 5179 465 7648 26263 2491 6324 173 3320 12345 1580 800
Low between peaks 19228 2896 1343 3454 11281 3784 8823 2145 1490 8228 937 6223 11125 155 483 726 374 72 31 123 2470 283 1766 241 63 239 -21 361 140 985 760 222 101 41 226 67 232 18 115 59 298 5625 386 425 232 9248 148 126 3 70 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-02 to 2021-09-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-01 6825074 36220327 690153 1187506 457487 517799 1679476 3979839 346518 4861883 127861 6635813 590832 374803 812531 354236 4546487 1943882 2889036 1039492 1100208 1127917 267962 395122 161814 782869
2021-09-02 6856000 36300000 691300 1190000 457700 518500 1680000 3980000 347400 4883000 128700 6666000 594800 374800 812500 355900 4553000 1946000 2889000 1043000 1101000 1129000 268500 395100 162800 785000
2021-09-03 6881000 36354000 692600 1192000 458300 519300 1680000 3980000 348500 4900000 129400 6683000 598000 375000 812600 357800 4560000 1948000 2889000 1046000 1103000 1130000 269100 395100 163000 787100
2021-09-04 6908000 36414000 693900 1192000 458800 520100 1680000 3980000 349500 4902000 130100 6714000 601000 375300 812600 359500 4567000 1950000 2889000 1048000 1104000 1130000 269800 395200 163400 787100
2021-09-05 6936000 36452000 695200 1192000 459300 520700 1680000 3980000 350500 4904000 130700 6731000 602500 375700 812600 361100 4572000 1953000 2890000 1050000 1105000 1130000 270300 395300 163900 787100
2021-09-06 6964000 36499000 696300 1196000 460600 521300 1680000 3980000 351400 4923000 131100 6731000 604900 375700 812800 362800 4576000 1955000 2890000 1051000 1106000 1130000 270700 395300 164300 792000
2021-09-07 6993000 36555000 697500 1198000 462400 522300 1680000 3984000 352200 4931000 131600 6735000 609200 376200 812900 364400 4581000 1957000 2890000 1053000 1107000 1133000 271400 395400 164900 794800
2021-09-08 7023000 36629000 699100 1200000 463800 523400 1681000 3996000 353100 4939000 132300 6763000 611900 376800 813100 366000 4587000 1959000 2890000 1054000 1108000 1134000 271900 395600 165400 797600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-02 to 2021-09-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-01 56560 20804215 1511046 1639123 4911082 32857937 4100138 5025233 3369747 2150006 2003955 6838652 2787203 6412247 39396156 88974 704420 451114 1016663 4382929 617982 372529 55570 119942 3220284 1371802 61800 408382 222548 1528011 863299 374122 581973 691687 706861 498376 76289 1036553 650897 710041 439661 128098 1220901 117955 107503 1093449 228712 392052 2282726 1228002 549980 279087 1303699 740634 132837 1019734 3639659 348300 769842 28379 565461 736263 191156 76007
2021-09-02 58180 20847000 1514000 1639000 4917000 32895000 4129000 5071000 3400000 2152000 2021000 6856000 2805000 6431000 39465000 89540 708600 453300 1019000 4395000 618900 373300 55670 120200 3249000 1377000 61800 409800 222500 1530000 864800 374100 585800 701100 707600 498700 76290 1037000 651700 713000 445200 128100 1225000 118000 107700 1095000 229500 393100 2287000 1233000 557200 283800 1306000 745400 132800 1020000 3650000 348900 771000 28500 571100 737000 194100 76010
2021-09-03 59660 20882000 1514000 1640000 4922000 32915000 4148000 5110000 3423000 2154000 2038000 6873000 2818000 6449000 39744000 90100 711800 456000 1021000 4404000 620100 374000 55830 120400 3405000 1384000 62700 412100 222700 1533000 866900 377000 589400 708000 708600 499600 76290 1040000 652900 715600 450100 128200 1231000 118000 107700 1097000 230300 394300 2291000 1238000 560000 286900 1307000 751900 133000 1022000 3670000 349400 772800 28540 574500 738600 196400 76240
2021-09-04 61070 20909000 1515000 1640000 4925000 32943000 4161000 5136000 3441000 2154000 2055000 6890000 2829000 6467000 39767000 90650 715500 458100 1023000 4414000 620100 374000 55830 120700 3405000 1384000 63560 414400 222700 1533000 866900 377000 593200 708700 708600 500600 76440 1040000 652900 717900 450100 128200 1231000 118100 107900 1099000 230300 394300 2294000 1242000 562600 287000 1308000 751900 133000 1022000 3679000 349400 772800 28620 574500 738600 198600 76240
2021-09-05 62300 20922000 1517000 1641000 4928000 32973000 4171000 5168000 3447000 2155000 2071000 6907000 2838000 6484000 39782000 91190 717100 458900 1026000 4426000 620100 374000 55830 120900 3418000 1384000 64540 417500 222700 1533000 866900 377000 597000 709500 708600 501400 76440 1040000 652900 719000 450100 128200 1231000 118300 108000 1100000 230300 394300 2299000 1247000 567300 287300 1310000 752100 133000 1022000 3682000 349400 772800 28720 574500 738600 199900 76240
2021-09-06 63520 20935000 1519000 1641000 4931000 33004000 4180000 5202000 3455000 2156000 2088000 6923000 2844000 6502000 40003000 91730 717900 459800 1028000 4438000 622900 375300 56370 121200 3418000 1401000 65220 421700 223300 1541000 874200 378800 600800 714000 711500 502400 76440 1042000 653900 720700 457900 128200 1246000 118500 108200 1101000 232100 396800 2303000 1251000 574400 292500 1312000 765700 133100 1035000 3700000 351200 778600 28820 579400 741200 202000 77060
2021-09-07 64580 20958000 1521000 1641000 4933000 33037000 4191000 5234000 3466000 2157000 2104000 6939000 2851000 6520000 40130000 92290 719700 462000 1030000 4451000 624700 376400 56510 121500 3418000 1410000 65790 424100 223900 1545000 877300 379400 604700 714900 712900 503300 76440 1042000 657700 722100 459500 128500 1250000 118900 108500 1103000 232900 397900 2306000 1256000 577300 295100 1315000 769300 133900 1043000 3721000 351900 781700 28940 580600 743600 203800 77470
2021-09-08 65660 20986000 1523000 1641000 4935000 33070000 4203000 5266000 3484000 2157000 2121000 6955000 2861000 6538000 40295000 92840 721000 464700 1033000 4464000 626500 377000 56640 121800 3418000 1419000 66040 424100 225000 1550000 881000 382600 608700 725000 714400 504400 76750 1046000 658800 724700 462600 129200 1256000 119200 108700 1105000 233600 399200 2311000 1260000 577300 297600 1317000 773800 134500 1048000 3745000 352900 784500 29050 581400 745500 205000 78150

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-02 to 2021-09-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-01 6825074 36220327 690153 1187506 457487 517799 1679476 3979839 346518 4861883 127861 6635813 590832 374803 812531 354236 4546487 1943882 2889036 1039492 1100208 1127917 267962 395122 161814 782869
2021-09-02 6855000 36271000 691600 1190000 459000 518900 1680000 3988000 347400 4869000 128500 6656000 594100 375400 812700 356000 4551000 1946000 2889000 1041000 1101000 1129000 268400 395200 163200 785600
2021-09-03 6881000 36296000 692900 1191000 460100 519900 1680000 3991000 348300 4878000 129000 6670000 597200 375700 812800 357800 4555000 1948000 2889000 1043000 1102000 1130000 268700 395300 164200 787600
2021-09-04 6907000 36325000 694000 1192000 460800 520700 1680000 3994000 349200 4882000 129400 6692000 600100 376100 812800 359500 4558000 1950000 2890000 1045000 1103000 1130000 269000 395400 165200 788300
2021-09-05 6934000 36344000 695100 1193000 461400 521400 1680000 3997000 350100 4885000 129800 6704000 601900 376600 812900 361200 4561000 1952000 2890000 1046000 1104000 1130000 269200 395500 166200 789000
2021-09-06 6961000 36368000 696100 1196000 462400 522000 1680000 4001000 351000 4898000 130100 6709000 604500 376900 813100 362900 4562000 1954000 2890000 1047000 1104000 1130000 269400 395500 167300 791900
2021-09-07 6988000 36400000 697000 1197000 463300 523000 1680000 4004000 351800 4906000 130500 6717000 608600 377200 813100 364600 4565000 1956000 2890000 1049000 1105000 1131000 269700 395600 168400 793600
2021-09-08 7016000 36437000 698300 1199000 464100 524000 1681000 4009000 352700 4915000 130900 6735000 611600 377600 813200 366200 4568000 1958000 2890000 1050000 1106000 1132000 269900 395700 169500 795400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-02 to 2021-09-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-01 56560 20804215 1511046 1639123 4911082 32857937 4100138 5025233 3369747 2150006 2003955 6838652 2787203 6412247 39396156 88974 704420 451114 1016663 4382929 617982 372529 55570 119942 3220284 1371802 61800 408382 222548 1528011 863299 374122 581973 691687 706861 498376 76289 1036553 650897 710041 439661 128098 1220901 117955 107503 1093449 228712 392052 2282726 1228002 549980 279087 1303699 740634 132837 1019734 3639659 348300 769842 28379 565461 736263 191156 76007
2021-09-02 57690 20832000 1514000 1640000 4913000 32887000 4112000 5055000 3386000 2151000 2019000 6852000 2798000 6432000 39548000 89710 709700 453400 1020000 4395000 620000 373300 55770 120300 3230000 1382000 62400 409700 223600 1532000 867900 375300 586700 696600 708200 499400 76580 1038000 652600 712400 443200 128800 1230000 118200 107800 1095000 229800 393300 2288000 1233000 554000 281800 1306000 746000 133300 1029000 3654000 349300 773100 28520 569100 738300 192500 76540
2021-09-03 58710 20860000 1515000 1641000 4915000 32901000 4125000 5083000 3405000 2152000 2035000 6861000 2810000 6451000 39839000 90360 712600 455600 1022000 4401000 621600 373900 55920 120700 3324000 1390000 63220 410300 224300 1536000 871300 377600 590500 700700 709000 500200 76730 1041000 654000 714500 447300 129300 1237000 118400 108000 1098000 230600 394500 2292000 1236000 555200 284400 1309000 751500 133500 1035000 3671000 350000 775100 28630 571200 739900 193700 76900
2021-09-04 59770 20885000 1517000 1641000 4917000 32916000 4134000 5100000 3421000 2152000 2051000 6869000 2821000 6469000 39874000 91010 715500 457300 1025000 4407000 621700 374200 55920 121000 3335000 1394000 64000 411000 224700 1537000 873200 378200 594300 701300 709200 501100 76930 1041000 654600 716500 448700 129300 1238000 118700 108200 1099000 230700 394800 2296000 1239000 556400 285300 1311000 754600 133500 1037000 3678000 350400 776200 28750 571700 740000 194900 77060
2021-09-05 60790 20895000 1519000 1642000 4919000 32932000 4142000 5127000 3431000 2153000 2066000 6878000 2830000 6486000 39896000 91650 717600 458100 1027000 4413000 621700 374500 55920 121300 3351000 1397000 64990 411800 225100 1538000 875100 378900 598000 702000 709500 501600 76960 1041000 655300 718300 450000 129400 1238000 118900 108500 1101000 230700 395100 2301000 1242000 557900 286100 1314000 757200 133500 1040000 3680000 350800 777100 28860 572200 740000 195800 77210
2021-09-06 61740 20906000 1521000 1642000 4921000 32948000 4148000 5153000 3443000 2154000 2083000 6886000 2838000 6504000 40083000 92300 719300 459000 1030000 4419000 624200 375400 56330 121700 3361000 1409000 65690 412700 226100 1545000 880600 380300 601800 706400 710700 502200 76990 1044000 656500 720200 455400 129600 1253000 119100 108700 1103000 232300 397300 2305000 1244000 559700 290300 1316000 764900 133600 1051000 3691000 352000 780900 28960 574300 741700 197200 77870
2021-09-07 62680 20936000 1523000 1643000 4923000 32965000 4162000 5180000 3458000 2154000 2097000 6895000 2848000 6523000 40190000 92950 720800 460700 1032000 4425000 625400 376200 56390 121900 3371000 1417000 66300 413400 226800 1549000 883800 381400 605500 708600 711700 502600 77090 1044000 658800 722000 458300 130000 1257000 119400 109000 1104000 233000 398300 2309000 1246000 561000 292900 1319000 769000 134000 1057000 3707000 352700 782900 29110 575200 742900 198200 78230
2021-09-08 63730 20966000 1526000 1643000 4925000 32982000 4175000 5208000 3476000 2155000 2112000 6903000 2859000 6541000 40310000 93560 722200 462600 1035000 4431000 626800 376700 56450 122200 3382000 1425000 66820 415300 227700 1552000 887100 383300 609200 714100 712400 503200 77270 1047000 660000 724000 461800 130400 1262000 119700 109200 1106000 233700 399500 2313000 1249000 566200 295400 1322000 773200 134200 1061000 3721000 353500 784900 29230 576300 743800 199200 78640

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed