COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-17


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-09-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-222021-08-132021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-182021-04-132021-03-222021-08-172021-08-212021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-132021-09-092021-08-132021-09-132021-09-07
Peak daily increment 43877 69532 3238 4734 3757 856 12260 20854 1343 26572 759 41469 3356 2177 8670 1878 6499 9508 27926 3219 5691 6122 837 68 1415 3430
Days since peak 62 52 176 180 179 35 199 151 191 53 36 159 30 157 179 31 27 64 175 59 176 157 8 35 4 10
Last total 7371301 37024877 720455 1219814 480777 539804 1685435 4137062 354068 4929546 135815 6778846 627314 389654 817159 372687 4627699 1981252 2896599 1060432 1139505 1144982 281687 401250 181195 823078
Last daily increment 32292 51810 2364 2341 1892 1834 554 9904 324 3222 501 6935 2231 1394 479 1386 4544 2138 652 1023 4478 1009 1143 902 763 2096
Last week 173639 289259 12282 14298 9942 9172 2509 56882 2129 22085 3153 39046 13476 6546 2427 7374 25950 12420 3426 5759 20956 6965 6072 2972 5706 15020
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-1810-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57012 209946 7102 16480 3440 3824 12260 23910 3421 37840 701 51646 2956 3555 5428 5772 34936 11037 24706 12346 8601 8622 1744 2814 1196 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206810 1324 1726 429 87 3514 7363 362 -30661 67 9751 363 312 1056 219 720 416 5006 344 2309 2589 28 24 165 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-09-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-03-242021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-182021-04-10 --2021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-09-07 --2021-08-262021-08-172021-08-262021-08-172021-09-062021-01-112021-09-072021-05-192021-09-032021-01-082021-08-2911-122021-09-022021-09-072021-09-072021-09-08 --2021-08-092021-01-102021-08-312021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-08-16 --2021-09-072021-09-022021-04-022021-09-012021-01-132021-08-232021-08-162021-03-2412-08 -- --12-102021-09-132021-09-072021-09-072021-01-122021-08-302021-09-08 -- --2021-09-08 --2021-09-01
Peak daily increment 74829 8651 7273 29826 387094 47189 38197 18907 8699 24496 19354 58966 169512 4650 2236 3741 15445 1832 2581 205 591 42475 8874 897 4364 987 4020 4083 1559 5922 5458 1140 454 7868 2115 57408 3777 6809 377 914 311 5865 817 1120 20372 17150 10186 5639 437 13490 21848 902 3485 1979 478
Days since peak 177 158 105 83 135 64 36 30 160 66 77 154 10 22 31 22 31 11 249 10 121 14 252 19 309 15 10 10 9 39 250 17 156 158 160 190 32 10 15 168 16 247 25 32 177 283 281 4 10 10 248 18 9 9 16
Last total 84056 21080219 1577335 1646403 4937596 33381728 4185144 5396013 3552983 2164380 2324475 7130245 2877063 6794670 41993789 99958 764839 477588 1061604 4620546 648551 383034 58851 126964 3525735 1480426 72137 428498 241256 1590176 926604 397842 649682 725107 733685 516784 83321 1080307 681098 743647 473413 139712 1330239 125110 221235 113582 1127954 239903 410104 2362552 1336061 584393 309841 1370247 819204 139956 1130628 3925136 364683 827197 31136 619092 771872 219439 83958
Last daily increment 1856 11202 5107 583 1544 0 3835 17605 3754 0 20283 19589 3648 27692 207886 880 2974 1763 2831 9789 2037 1533 202 616 75997 5473 567 0 1730 3564 4284 3209 5128 2179 2013 1525 729 6637 2640 2357 2321 1219 8956 490 0 406 2373 758 1371 6006 8447 0 2073 5198 4950 544 6869 16888 1163 4212 235 3863 3554 2320 315
Last week 10453 91055 30268 2773 9018 144807 21412 120446 46240 4053 118454 111045 22829 157801 972197 5171 19027 8786 15769 55868 13753 5390 1885 2631 75997 39647 3221 11369 7679 25909 26760 9823 29335 13050 12897 7391 2811 21339 15106 12155 13101 5997 51500 2759 0 3034 13033 4823 8203 31061 41899 15849 13016 27294 35152 3184 51139 103618 7133 25370 1222 23014 17900 11394 3315
Previous peak date08-0408-042021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0912-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0912-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-202021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2708-2712-0811-0612-0511-232021-01-0711-1604-172021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-182021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0804-192021-01-0911-2804-092021-01-1311-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0811-19
Previous peak daily increment 543 45350 7805 7360 17013 92145 12372 23864 23278 8364 10577 27995 17714 720227 239188 717 3862 2815 9265 43158 4983 1012 285 792 16683 22916 245 1648 1492 12552 6415 2770 3854 3876 2172 3015 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 1157 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 2623 15822 994 3935 1460 1625 4871 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 192 3223 12274 1580 801
Low between peaks 19228 2897 1343 3453 11268 3789 8820 2152 1487 8232 937 6214 11258 110 156 412 -611 374 72 8 124 701 2353 38 723 64 207 240 66 239 -15 54 140 989 760 255 102 225 11 233 18 115 59 201 5685 386 424 82 6 48 9157 148 126 70 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-17 7371301 37024877 720455 1219814 480777 539804 1685435 4137062 354068 4929546 135815 6778846 627314 389654 817159 372687 4627699 1981252 2896599 1060432 1139505 1144982 281687 401250 181195 823078
2021-09-18 7403000 37092000 723300 1220000 481400 541500 1686000 4149000 354500 4937000 136200 6803000 630700 391200 817200 373800 4639000 1983000 2897000 1065000 1143000 1146000 283300 401800 183400 823700
2021-09-19 7445000 37132000 725600 1220000 481600 542700 1686000 4155000 355200 4942000 137200 6819000 632700 392300 817200 375000 4646000 1985000 2897000 1067000 1147000 1146000 284300 402300 184500 823700
2021-09-20 7481000 37172000 727600 1225000 483300 543900 1687000 4160000 355800 4953000 137500 6824000 634600 393100 817600 376200 4651000 1987000 2898000 1069000 1150000 1146000 285000 402600 185800 828200
2021-09-21 7514000 37230000 730000 1226000 485100 545600 1687000 4173000 356300 4959000 138000 6836000 637900 394400 817800 377300 4657000 1989000 2898000 1071000 1153000 1149000 286300 403100 187200 831300
2021-09-22 7547000 37279000 732600 1229000 486700 547400 1688000 4184000 356800 4966000 138500 6843000 640300 396200 818000 378400 4664000 1990000 2899000 1073000 1156000 1150000 287600 403800 188500 833600
2021-09-23 7578000 37339000 735300 1231000 488200 549500 1689000 4199000 357300 4970000 139000 6856000 642400 397800 818400 379600 4670000 1992000 2899000 1075000 1159000 1151000 288700 404200 189600 836000
2021-09-24 7609000 37382000 737300 1233000 489900 550900 1689000 4204000 357700 4975000 139500 6864000 644700 398700 818700 380700 4674000 1994000 2900000 1076000 1163000 1152000 289800 404800 190400 837900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-17 84056 21080219 1577335 1646403 4937596 33381728 4185144 5396013 3552983 2164380 2324475 7130245 2877063 6794670 41993789 99958 764839 477588 1061604 4620546 648551 383034 58851 126964 3525735 1480426 72137 428498 241256 1590176 926604 397842 649682 725107 733685 516784 83321 1080307 681098 743647 473413 139712 1330239 125110 113582 1127954 239903 410104 2362552 1336061 584393 309841 1370247 819204 139956 1130628 3925136 364683 827197 31136 619092 771872 219439 83958
2021-09-18 85580 21110000 1577000 1647000 4939000 33390000 4202000 5418000 3584000 2166000 2346000 7147000 2882000 6819000 42115000 100700 771500 480400 1064000 4630000 648600 383000 58850 127300 3526000 1490000 73370 428500 241600 1593000 928200 398700 653500 727400 733700 517700 83450 1080000 681100 745900 475600 139900 1330000 125300 113600 1130000 240300 410100 2366000 1343000 587800 311300 1372000 820500 140000 1131000 3943000 364700 827200 31280 619900 771900 221800 84200
2021-09-19 87000 21128000 1578000 1647000 4940000 33419000 4211000 5439000 3594000 2167000 2369000 7164000 2883000 6841000 42160000 101300 773900 481900 1068000 4647000 648600 383000 58850 127700 3546000 1493000 74370 428500 241600 1593000 928300 398700 657500 728900 733700 518600 83450 1080000 681100 747200 476400 140100 1330000 125400 113600 1131000 240400 410100 2370000 1347000 588000 311400 1374000 820500 140000 1131000 3947000 364700 827200 31430 620000 771900 224100 84200
2021-09-20 88220 21138000 1585000 1648000 4941000 33438000 4217000 5461000 3600000 2167000 2390000 7181000 2884000 6864000 42391000 102000 776200 482700 1071000 4660000 653200 383900 59330 128000 3547000 1507000 75010 428500 242500 1600000 936400 400800 661600 729700 736800 519600 83450 1085000 682000 748400 481600 141300 1348000 125500 114200 1133000 241900 412200 2374000 1352000 588000 315200 1376000 838300 140300 1151000 3963000 366600 835400 31560 627300 773500 225900 85080
2021-09-21 89250 21154000 1589000 1648000 4942000 33453000 4223000 5483000 3614000 2168000 2411000 7197000 2885000 6886000 42559000 102700 779200 484200 1074000 4671000 655000 385000 59680 128200 3558000 1518000 75510 428500 244000 1605000 941400 401000 665800 733900 738800 520500 83610 1086000 685600 750100 483400 142600 1356000 125800 114700 1134000 242900 413800 2377000 1357000 588000 317800 1379000 842100 141100 1161000 3987000 367700 838300 31660 631600 774600 227300 85740
2021-09-22 90610 21171000 1593000 1648000 4943000 33466000 4229000 5502000 3628000 2169000 2432000 7213000 2888000 6909000 42732000 103400 783100 486400 1076000 4682000 656600 385500 59850 128400 3584000 1525000 76000 435700 245100 1610000 945500 405300 670000 739200 740800 521500 84230 1092000 688300 752500 485800 143800 1362000 126500 115100 1136000 243600 415000 2381000 1363000 603000 320000 1383000 845100 141700 1165000 4010000 368700 841700 31810 635000 776100 229000 86270
2021-09-23 92000 21199000 1597000 1649000 4944000 33477000 4232000 5519000 3634000 2170000 2453000 7231000 2889000 6932000 42889000 104100 786800 488100 1079000 4692000 658600 386300 60040 128900 3584000 1530000 76510 435700 246400 1614000 949800 405300 674200 741400 742700 522700 84880 1092000 690400 754800 488200 145100 1369000 127100 115600 1139000 244300 416300 2387000 1369000 603000 322100 1388000 849200 142300 1170000 4029000 369900 845700 32030 638400 777900 231200 86920
2021-09-24 93590 21212000 1601000 1649000 4946000 33487000 4238000 5537000 3639000 2170000 2474000 7248000 2893000 6955000 43082000 104900 790100 489800 1082000 4701000 660500 387500 60200 129500 3773000 1536000 77120 437200 247800 1617000 954700 408400 678500 743500 744600 524100 85490 1098000 692300 757200 490300 146000 1376000 127500 116000 1141000 245100 417400 2393000 1375000 603000 323800 1393000 853800 142700 1177000 4046000 371100 849600 32180 642500 781200 233400 87230

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-17 7371301 37024877 720455 1219814 480777 539804 1685435 4137062 354068 4929546 135815 6778846 627314 389654 817159 372687 4627699 1981252 2896599 1060432 1139505 1144982 281687 401250 181195 823078
2021-09-18 7402000 37063000 722800 1221000 481900 541500 1686000 4145000 354400 4931000 136000 6788000 629300 390900 817400 374100 4632000 1983000 2897000 1062000 1143000 1145000 282700 401900 182100 824000
2021-09-19 7433000 37080000 724300 1222000 482400 542400 1686000 4147000 354800 4933000 136600 6796000 630800 391800 817400 375100 4634000 1984000 2898000 1062000 1145000 1145000 283400 402300 183200 824800
2021-09-20 7463000 37099000 725500 1225000 483700 543200 1686000 4150000 355100 4939000 136700 6799000 632500 392400 817800 376100 4636000 1986000 2898000 1063000 1147000 1145000 283900 402600 184400 827600
2021-09-21 7491000 37127000 727100 1226000 485200 544500 1687000 4156000 355500 4943000 137000 6806000 635400 393300 817900 377100 4638000 1988000 2898000 1064000 1149000 1147000 284700 403000 185600 829900
2021-09-22 7519000 37153000 728800 1228000 486400 545900 1687000 4162000 355800 4947000 137300 6811000 637500 394400 818100 378100 4641000 1990000 2899000 1065000 1151000 1148000 285700 403400 187000 831700
2021-09-23 7547000 37187000 730200 1230000 487500 547500 1687000 4170000 356200 4952000 137600 6822000 639700 395300 818300 379100 4643000 1992000 2899000 1065000 1154000 1148000 286300 403900 188200 833500
2021-09-24 7574000 37210000 731700 1232000 488700 548800 1688000 4172000 356500 4956000 137900 6829000 641900 396000 818500 380200 4645000 1993000 2900000 1066000 1156000 1149000 287000 404300 189400 835000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-18 to 2021-09-24

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-17 84056 21080219 1577335 1646403 4937596 33381728 4185144 5396013 3552983 2164380 2324475 7130245 2877063 6794670 41993789 99958 764839 477588 1061604 4620546 648551 383034 58851 126964 3525735 1480426 72137 428498 241256 1590176 926604 397842 649682 725107 733685 516784 83321 1080307 681098 743647 473413 139712 1330239 125110 113582 1127954 239903 410104 2362552 1336061 584393 309841 1370247 819204 139956 1130628 3925136 364683 827197 31136 619092 771872 219439 83958
2021-09-18 85680 21095000 1580000 1647000 4939000 33397000 4189000 5407000 3569000 2165000 2345000 7144000 2881000 6820000 42043000 100700 768100 479200 1064000 4629000 649100 383600 58940 127500 3541000 1481000 72880 429500 242300 1591000 928600 398600 653700 725500 734600 518000 83860 1082000 682500 745800 474300 140100 1331000 125600 113900 1130000 239900 410500 2368000 1343000 586000 310900 1374000 820000 140100 1134000 3932000 365300 829100 31360 619700 772900 221700 84150
2021-09-19 87200 21106000 1583000 1647000 4940000 33416000 4193000 5423000 3576000 2166000 2363000 7152000 2884000 6842000 42062000 101200 769700 480100 1067000 4635000 649300 383800 58940 127900 3548000 1483000 73660 430100 243000 1592000 930500 399200 657200 725800 734900 518700 83970 1082000 683200 747300 475100 140200 1331000 125800 114100 1132000 240000 410800 2372000 1347000 587400 311700 1377000 821000 140100 1137000 3934000 365800 830500 31520 619900 773100 223800 84330
2021-09-20 88610 21113000 1586000 1648000 4942000 33432000 4195000 5439000 3583000 2166000 2382000 7161000 2887000 6864000 42262000 102000 771400 480700 1069000 4641000 652800 384600 59380 128300 3553000 1493000 74230 431100 244100 1598000 936100 400700 661000 726000 736600 519500 84070 1085000 684700 748700 478200 140700 1349000 126100 114600 1134000 241300 412600 2376000 1350000 588900 314400 1381000 835100 140200 1152000 3944000 367200 835600 31650 624800 775400 225500 85020
2021-09-21 90020 21126000 1590000 1648000 4943000 33447000 4199000 5454000 3594000 2167000 2399000 7169000 2890000 6887000 42420000 102700 773400 481700 1072000 4647000 654300 385400 59710 128600 3557000 1502000 74720 432000 245500 1603000 940600 401400 665000 728600 737900 520200 84320 1086000 687400 750400 479600 141700 1357000 126400 115000 1135000 242300 414100 2380000 1354000 590300 316500 1384000 839200 140800 1161000 3962000 368300 838300 31750 628200 776700 226900 85630
2021-09-22 91430 21141000 1593000 1648000 4944000 33462000 4205000 5468000 3607000 2168000 2417000 7177000 2895000 6910000 42567000 103400 776000 483100 1074000 4652000 655600 386000 59830 128900 3565000 1509000 75280 438100 246600 1607000 944400 404100 668800 732500 738900 520900 84760 1090000 689500 752400 481600 142400 1363000 127000 115400 1137000 242800 415200 2384000 1359000 599200 318600 1388000 843100 141300 1166000 3981000 369300 841000 31920 630700 778600 228500 86130
2021-09-23 93010 21167000 1596000 1649000 4946000 33476000 4209000 5480000 3617000 2169000 2435000 7185000 2898000 6932000 42716000 104100 778900 484500 1077000 4656000 656900 386700 59900 129300 3569000 1516000 75860 438500 247700 1611000 948400 404800 672700 734500 739900 521600 85160 1091000 691200 754400 483800 143100 1370000 127400 115800 1140000 243400 416300 2389000 1364000 600500 320600 1392000 847200 141700 1171000 3996000 370300 843900 32100 633200 780100 230500 86690
2021-09-24 94710 21184000 1599000 1649000 4947000 33489000 4215000 5491000 3625000 2169000 2453000 7194000 2903000 6955000 42921000 104800 782000 485800 1079000 4661000 658500 387300 59950 129800 3619000 1524000 76540 439100 249000 1615000 953000 407300 676600 736100 740900 522600 85520 1094000 692900 756500 485800 143800 1377000 127900 116100 1142000 244200 417500 2394000 1369000 601900 322700 1396000 852600 142100 1178000 4013000 371400 847000 32240 636000 782100 232600 87240

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed