COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-12


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-10-12

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-222021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-192021-04-132021-03-222021-09-162021-08-212021-07-152021-03-262021-07-20 --2021-04-132021-09-162021-01-032021-09-092021-09-07
Peak daily increment 43892 69591 3237 4980 3756 3823 12262 20926 1362 26567 760 42653 3275 2181 8671 2058 6503 9516 27942 3220 6130 977 2815 1418 5938
Days since peak 87 77 201 205 204 298 224 173 216 78 61 184 54 182 204 26 52 89 200 84 182 26 282 33 35
Last total 8231437 38255496 763928 1269002 527802 600962 1704003 4331274 365051 4977448 147919 6890619 682394 419035 829911 405970 4704318 2029289 2925425 1076358 1382531 1159560 302654 427480 194630 851610
Last daily increment 37668 66231 1390 2440 3469 3132 3925 7928 587 0 622 5807 3237 1007 455 1456 2486 2887 2121 719 16743 1738 1010 1509 896 926
Last week 224777 332728 10096 12811 13594 18522 7987 46874 3590 7945 3254 24705 13583 7118 4112 9345 14977 15864 10463 3821 78631 3312 4380 8007 2551 5283
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2612-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-032021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-122021-01-0510-29 --11-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57058 210478 7110 16473 3443 271 12285 23895 3419 37890 701 51954 2958 3554 5428 5771 34940 11039 24662 12346 9178 8567 1746 1168 8404
Low between peaks -2803 -210863 1329 1726 429 -1037 3593 7354 362 -30756 67 10020 360 312 1056 217 716 422 5006 345 2601 28 165 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-10-12

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-09-182021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-182021-04-092021-09-11 --2021-07-022021-04-162021-09-072021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-202021-09-102021-01-112021-09-072021-05-192021-08-062021-08-302021-08-292021-09-222021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-062021-09-122021-08-092021-01-102021-09-252021-10-022021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-08-162021-09-272021-09-122021-09-082021-09-252021-09-292021-01-132021-08-232021-09-122021-03-242021-09-132021-09-012021-08-232021-09-232021-09-132021-09-122021-09-072021-01-122021-09-092021-09-122021-10-092021-08-302021-09-272021-09-122021-09-13
Peak daily increment 117665 8651 7273 29826 387068 47193 38208 18308 8725 21200 19350 58965 165037 1464 5136 2236 3955 15339 1900 2579 274 595 35957 8912 1000 2866 1288 4098 4191 1688 4445 5893 5454 1227 557 7859 2114 57080 3631 915 7224 428 33099 468 5865 849 1190 20523 6999 4745 2271 4694 5456 468 14652 21848 1061 3751 220 3421 3078 1866 538
Days since peak 24 183 130 108 160 89 61 55 186 31 102 179 35 15 47 60 47 53 32 274 35 146 67 43 44 20 13 43 43 36 30 64 275 17 10 183 185 215 57 15 30 34 17 13 272 50 30 202 29 41 50 19 29 30 35 273 33 30 3 43 15 30 29
Last total 133444 21590097 1675805 1663992 4974400 34001743 4229813 5729785 3732429 2185355 2683372 7714973 2912938 7508945 44562257 124076 809485 498718 1122390 4792535 696253 394140 62266 137754 3642329 1562396 79142 461340 270600 1657697 988765 420203 717236 749351 768236 545439 94938 1169138 746223 778616 496132 160896 1436698 138902 271223 125301 1173515 256443 428934 2483222 1474723 618789 345344 1486134 879985 148249 1206047 4140620 386719 895619 35965 684830 844102 254648 95620
Last daily increment 2029 7359 7796 609 1075 15823 1261 13391 7187 679 8558 27414 592 33860 106308 456 886 737 2029 5053 2000 1472 0 167 0 7072 49 0 1941 7866 1601 47 2341 1128 4460 411 -1 0 7919 949 820 2216 2147 721 1854 1991 1620 2402 891 3277 4456 0 1351 5119 973 429 2342 5108 2964 7460 98 1912 3292 753 483
Last week 13402 73130 20399 5548 8553 107431 6719 67327 40505 4172 60455 166029 4170 181628 503430 4914 5236 3943 13560 35294 13577 2522 288 2398 25184 15914 1015 0 5940 13983 11963 3880 11619 4345 7545 6386 1737 19878 17424 6342 3574 4817 19505 3174 3443 3297 9776 4394 3939 27910 28938 0 7214 27689 10147 1254 13870 24210 5254 13182 1368 13684 15822 6842 2537
Previous peak date08-042021-03-242021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0912-062021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-202021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-1011-1604-172021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-182021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1211-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Previous peak daily increment 525 74845 7808 7348 17013 92158 12373 23864 22832 8380 10769 28241 17701 720121 239144 689 3868 2817 9263 43162 4984 1011 285 792 16406 21992 245 4362 1493 12563 6415 3244 3605 3407 2172 3015 578 7920 6763 5848 2921 1158 8243 2132 3072 793 4272 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10187 4802 1362 7648 26263 2491 6323 173 3223 12345 1433 800
Low between peaks 16394 2897 1343 3454 11282 3784 8824 2145 1490 5186 937 6223 10994 26 111 155 411 -570 374 72 7 123 832 278 38 27 64 207 241 63 109 239 -21 54 16 985 760 222 101 41 226 11 -389 18 115 59 202 5625 235 87 130 138 84 7 48 9248 148 126 3 329 70 35 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-13 to 2021-10-19

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-10-12 8231437 38255496 763928 1269002 527802 600962 1704003 4331274 365051 4977448 147919 6890619 682394 419035 829911 405970 4704318 2029289 2925425 1076358 1382531 1159560 302654 427480 194630 851610
2021-10-13 8266000 38288000 766100 1271000 528400 604400 1706000 4340000 365600 4981000 148200 6896000 684200 420600 829900 407300 4706000 2032000 2928000 1077000 1397000 1160000 304000 428100 195400 853400
2021-10-14 8291000 38335000 767800 1274000 529700 607500 1709000 4350000 366200 4985000 148700 6903000 686200 422000 830100 408400 4709000 2034000 2929000 1078000 1412000 1161000 305100 428700 196100 855000
2021-10-15 8320000 38385000 769500 1276000 531600 610600 1711000 4359000 366800 4988000 149000 6909000 688300 423300 830400 409500 4710000 2037000 2931000 1079000 1425000 1162000 306000 429700 196600 856200
2021-10-16 8351000 38425000 771100 1277000 532500 613700 1713000 4364000 367300 4989000 149000 6916000 690200 424700 830400 410700 4712000 2039000 2933000 1079000 1437000 1162000 306900 430600 196900 856200
2021-10-17 8381000 38457000 772700 1277000 532800 615900 1715000 4369000 367900 4990000 149000 6921000 691400 425400 830400 412000 4714000 2041000 2934000 1080000 1448000 1162000 307500 431600 197300 856200
2021-10-18 8413000 38497000 773800 1282000 535900 617900 1717000 4373000 368400 4994000 150200 6923000 693500 425400 830700 413200 4714000 2043000 2935000 1080000 1458000 1162000 307700 431900 197500 858400
2021-10-19 8446000 38554000 775000 1284000 538900 620700 1719000 4380000 369000 4996000 150800 6930000 696500 426400 831200 414500 4716000 2046000 2937000 1081000 1468000 1163000 308600 433100 198200 859400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-13 to 2021-10-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-10-12 133444 21590097 1675805 1663992 4974400 34001743 4229813 5729785 3732429 2185355 2683372 7714973 2912938 7508945 44562257 124076 809485 498718 1122390 4792535 696253 394140 62266 137754 3642329 1562396 79142 270600 1657697 988765 420203 717236 749351 768236 545439 94938 1169138 746223 778616 496132 160896 1436698 138902 271223 125301 1173515 256443 428934 2483222 1474723 345344 1486134 879985 148249 1206047 4140620 386719 895619 35965 684830 844102 254648 95620
2021-10-13 136100 21613000 1681000 1664000 4976000 34021000 4231000 5753000 3742000 2187000 2695000 7736000 2913000 7537000 44710000 125300 811600 500000 1125000 4798000 696800 394500 62690 138300 3666000 1567000 79400 272400 1661000 993000 422400 722300 751100 769700 546900 96210 1176000 747300 781500 497700 162000 1444000 139700 274500 125300 1176000 256600 429800 2489000 1483000 347600 1491000 884300 149000 1211000 4163000 387300 899600 36020 688800 847500 255300 96230
2021-10-14 138400 21634000 1686000 1665000 4978000 34048000 4233000 5771000 3756000 2187000 2720000 7742000 2915000 7558000 44839000 126400 813300 501300 1128000 4806000 698800 395000 62930 138800 3671000 1574000 79700 274000 1664000 996000 422500 726100 752600 771300 548400 97030 1176000 749100 783600 499500 163100 1450000 140300 276800 125900 1179000 257500 430400 2494000 1490000 349300 1496000 887900 149600 1215000 4177000 388400 903100 36280 692100 851000 256200 96950
2021-10-15 140400 21650000 1690000 1665000 4979000 34071000 4234000 5786000 3763000 2188000 2738000 7745000 2915000 7582000 44987000 127400 814600 502000 1130000 4812000 701000 395600 63130 139300 3707000 1577000 79920 275700 1667000 999000 424600 729100 753800 772900 549600 97580 1183000 752300 785400 500400 164300 1454000 140900 278200 126400 1181000 258300 431700 2499000 1497000 351000 1501000 890600 150100 1220000 4186000 389400 905900 36510 694700 854500 257100 97450
2021-10-16 142300 21662000 1692000 1666000 4981000 34093000 4235000 5797000 3764000 2189000 2753000 7747000 2916000 7606000 45018000 127600 815600 503000 1133000 4818000 701000 395700 63160 139900 3707000 1577000 80120 276500 1667000 999000 424600 729400 753800 772900 550800 98190 1183000 752300 786800 500500 164300 1454000 141400 279400 126500 1183000 258300 431800 2503000 1500000 351000 1505000 890900 150100 1220000 4190000 389400 906100 36720 694700 854500 257900 97450
2021-10-17 144000 21676000 1694000 1667000 4982000 34113000 4236000 5811000 3773000 2190000 2767000 7747000 2917000 7631000 45051000 127600 816400 503500 1135000 4824000 701000 395800 63200 140200 3710000 1578000 80360 276800 1668000 999000 424600 729800 753800 773000 552000 98190 1183000 752300 788000 500800 164300 1455000 141600 279400 126500 1185000 258400 431900 2506000 1505000 351000 1509000 891300 150100 1220000 4193000 389500 906500 36900 694700 854500 258500 97460
2021-10-18 145400 21680000 1697000 1668000 4983000 34133000 4237000 5826000 3774000 2190000 2779000 7747000 2917000 7657000 45170000 130200 816800 503600 1137000 4830000 706100 396100 63320 140500 3714000 1580000 80450 277000 1670000 1004000 426100 734200 755400 774000 552700 98190 1192000 754800 788700 501600 164600 1465000 141800 279400 126700 1186000 259000 433400 2511000 1507000 353900 1512000 896300 150200 1225000 4197000 390100 908500 37080 701400 860400 258500 98320
2021-10-19 147000 21689000 1703000 1668000 4984000 34152000 4238000 5838000 3780000 2191000 2791000 7747000 2917000 7683000 45267000 130600 818000 504300 1139000 4836000 707900 397100 63320 140700 3714000 1585000 80500 278900 1675000 1006000 426100 736400 756300 777200 553200 98400 1192000 762300 789500 502600 166400 1467000 142500 280600 128200 1187000 260600 434100 2515000 1512000 355100 1516000 897200 150700 1226000 4204000 392200 913700 37160 703100 863800 259200 98740

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-13 to 2021-10-19

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-10-12 8231437 38255496 763928 1269002 527802 600962 1704003 4331274 365051 4977448 147919 6890619 682394 419035 829911 405970 4704318 2029289 2925425 1076358 1382531 1159560 302654 427480 194630 851610
2021-10-13 8264000 38301000 766100 1271000 530100 604800 1706000 4339000 365600 4979000 148500 6893000 684600 420400 830500 407200 4706000 2032000 2927000 1077000 1399000 1160000 303600 428900 195100 852400
2021-10-14 8291000 38327000 767700 1273000 531700 607900 1706000 4344000 366100 4981000 148900 6898000 686600 421800 831100 408400 4708000 2034000 2929000 1077000 1414000 1161000 304300 429900 195600 853000
2021-10-15 8319000 38352000 769300 1275000 533400 610900 1707000 4349000 366600 4983000 149100 6901000 688700 423100 831600 409600 4709000 2035000 2930000 1078000 1428000 1161000 304900 431100 195900 853600
2021-10-16 8347000 38373000 770700 1276000 534500 614000 1708000 4351000 367200 4984000 149200 6904000 690500 424300 831700 410800 4710000 2037000 2932000 1078000 1442000 1161000 305500 432300 196100 853600
2021-10-17 8375000 38388000 772100 1277000 535000 616400 1709000 4354000 367700 4985000 149300 6908000 691900 425300 831700 412000 4712000 2039000 2933000 1079000 1453000 1161000 306000 433300 196400 853800
2021-10-18 8404000 38405000 773200 1280000 536900 618300 1709000 4356000 368200 4988000 149800 6909000 693900 425900 832500 413300 4712000 2040000 2935000 1079000 1462000 1161000 306300 434000 196700 855000
2021-10-19 8433000 38428000 774100 1281000 538700 621100 1710000 4359000 368700 4990000 150100 6913000 696600 426900 832700 414500 4714000 2042000 2936000 1079000 1478000 1162000 306900 435000 197200 855500

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-13 to 2021-10-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-10-12 133444 21590097 1675805 1663992 4974400 34001743 4229813 5729785 3732429 2185355 2683372 7714973 2912938 7508945 44562257 124076 809485 498718 1122390 4792535 696253 394140 62266 137754 3642329 1562396 79142 270600 1657697 988765 420203 717236 749351 768236 545439 94938 1169138 746223 778616 496132 160896 1436698 138902 271223 125301 1173515 256443 428934 2483222 1474723 345344 1486134 879985 148249 1206047 4140620 386719 895619 35965 684830 844102 254648 95620
2021-10-13 135600 21604000 1679000 1665000 4976000 34015000 4231000 5740000 3739000 2186000 2694000 7729000 2914000 7538000 44651000 125000 810200 499400 1125000 4798000 697800 394600 62260 138100 3647000 1564000 79270 271900 1660000 991000 421500 719600 750000 769400 546200 95410 1176000 749800 780000 496700 162100 1440000 139700 272600 125900 1175000 257100 429500 2488000 1479000 346700 1491000 881000 148500 1208000 4147000 387800 898500 36090 686300 846500 255600 96100
2021-10-14 137600 21623000 1682000 1666000 4977000 34026000 4232000 5749000 3748000 2187000 2707000 7732000 2915000 7564000 44729000 126000 810900 500000 1127000 4801000 699500 395000 62350 138500 3655000 1569000 79470 273300 1663000 993000 421900 722500 750800 770200 547200 96020 1176000 752000 781400 497900 163200 1444000 140300 274100 126400 1177000 258000 429900 2493000 1484000 348100 1495000 883400 148800 1211000 4153000 388800 901100 36360 688300 849000 256800 96650
2021-10-15 139700 21638000 1685000 1667000 4979000 34036000 4233000 5756000 3754000 2187000 2718000 7734000 2916000 7591000 44836000 127000 811500 500400 1129000 4804000 701500 395500 62460 139000 3676000 1572000 79640 274800 1665000 996000 423300 725100 751500 771100 548000 96470 1182000 754800 782700 498500 164100 1448000 141000 275100 126900 1179000 258800 430900 2498000 1488000 349600 1500000 885600 149100 1214000 4157000 389700 903300 36590 689800 851800 257900 97080
2021-10-16 141500 21652000 1687000 1667000 4980000 34046000 4234000 5761000 3757000 2188000 2728000 7735000 2917000 7617000 44850000 127500 812000 500900 1132000 4807000 701700 395700 62460 139500 3679000 1573000 79800 275700 1666000 997000 423700 726400 751800 771200 548700 96940 1183000 756000 783800 498900 164200 1448000 141500 276000 127100 1181000 258800 431000 2501000 1491000 350000 1505000 886200 149100 1216000 4158000 390100 904200 36800 689900 851900 258900 97190
2021-10-17 143200 21668000 1689000 1668000 4981000 34055000 4235000 5768000 3764000 2189000 2737000 7735000 2918000 7643000 44872000 128000 812500 501300 1134000 4810000 702000 395900 62470 139800 3683000 1575000 80000 276500 1667000 998000 424100 727900 752000 771400 549500 97080 1183000 757300 784900 499300 164300 1448000 141900 276700 127300 1182000 258900 431200 2505000 1493000 350500 1509000 887000 149100 1217000 4160000 390500 905000 36990 690100 851900 260000 97310
2021-10-18 145000 21674000 1693000 1669000 4982000 34065000 4236000 5776000 3768000 2189000 2746000 7735000 2918000 7670000 44995000 129600 812900 501500 1136000 4813000 705300 396400 62710 140200 3688000 1578000 80130 277500 1670000 1002000 425400 731600 753200 772600 550000 97200 1189000 759500 786000 500500 164800 1459000 142200 277200 127800 1183000 259700 432700 2510000 1496000 353000 1512000 892300 149200 1222000 4165000 391500 907900 37170 694200 855600 260900 98020
2021-10-19 146700 21687000 1697000 1669000 4984000 34074000 4237000 5783000 3773000 2190000 2755000 7735000 2919000 7698000 45069000 130300 813800 502000 1138000 4815000 706600 396900 62760 140500 3692000 1582000 80220 279000 1674000 1003000 425800 734200 753900 773700 550400 97730 1190000 764000 787000 501500 165800 1461000 142900 278700 128400 1185000 260500 433200 2514000 1499000 354300 1517000 893900 149600 1224000 4172000 392500 910200 37260 695400 858400 261900 98410

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed