COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-07


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-12-07

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-19 --2021-11-18 --2021-10-252021-10-282021-12-02 -- --2021-07-26 -- --2021-11-152021-11-092021-11-292021-09-162021-08-212021-12-012021-03-262021-07-202021-10-202021-04-132021-11-102021-12-02 -- --
Peak daily increment 45509 13170 4795 4719 18510 26572 6740 5197 10144 1919 6505 22850 27926 3219 14739 6122 3236 11285
Days since peak 49 19 43 40 5 134 22 28 8 82 108 6 256 140 48 238 27 5
Last total 10560341 48231703 1207336 1879784 707885 800203 2262666 6312346 522581 5246766 196180 7794665 978402 635027 1161879 602726 5134318 2790830 3704040 1172420 1788260 1219557 432793 1244362 294754 1078503
Last daily increment 45102 335464 4233 10878 2299 2890 15599 93087 6324 43808 1542 56241 7254 3262 4311 5565 15742 17911 19369 3417 1421 7412 1954 9380 7631 9975
Last week 284334 1533763 36974 93340 10723 15027 90582 313326 30060 72046 8072 259078 33307 21113 47619 28821 90698 129139 134903 20501 7452 12059 9631 61800 23131 53374
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0511-1110-292021-03-2212-1810-2912-1612-172021-01-252021-08-1211-022021-04-0712-122021-03-222021-01-0811-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-062021-09-0111-04
Previous peak daily increment 57016 210023 7102 16368 3757 3824 12260 23756 3737 37839 811 51646 2956 3555 8670 5772 34932 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 1744 6245 1515 9329
Low between peaks -2834 76 41 87 118 -30661 363 67 33 119 720 416 5006 344 42 2589 28 36

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-12-07

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-142021-09-182021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-112021-04-102021-09-102021-11-032021-07-022021-04-162021-08-302021-09-272021-10-272021-08-132021-08-262021-08-202021-11-082021-01-112021-09-072021-11-202021-09-032021-08-302021-08-292021-11-022021-09-292021-11-222021-08-302021-09-082021-08-302021-08-092021-01-102021-11-272021-12-03 --2021-11-152021-11-182021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-022021-01-132021-11-152021-09-132021-03-242021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-11-192021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-01-122021-11-082021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302021-11-222021-11-292021-09-20
Peak daily increment 2289 109124 8651 7273 29826 387108 47189 38197 18312 8699 20599 39257 19354 58966 164073 1313 4879 2236 3913 15442 3198 2581 256 961 40730 8907 1001 2872 1290 4288 5243 1581 4276 5922 5458 1681 579 4035 7161 3631 919 6936 601 31641 2331 5865 1339 1142 20372 6892 4762 2270 5841 5397 461 14956 21848 1166 3687 1240 3420 3612 1882 555
Days since peak 54 80 239 186 164 216 145 117 118 241 88 34 158 235 99 71 41 116 103 109 29 330 91 17 95 99 100 35 69 15 99 90 99 120 331 10 4 22 19 113 71 85 70 73 35 328 22 85 258 82 97 106 18 92 85 91 329 29 85 8 99 15 8 78
Last total 222260 22157726 1823674 1775212 5084466 34656822 4258076 6141335 3902015 2246633 2835154 9692411 3051222 8945807 49387208 151999 849409 528824 1298091 5128343 846785 431162 68134 156751 3738097 1628052 85464 528171 310008 1861171 1134898 478634 802408 773594 880476 592679 124095 1503712 944863 862767 517138 193005 1555216 165375 314998 168280 1279095 319990 462159 2796843 1743801 665972 397421 1791030 925629 169789 1277081 4361295 446049 985297 53379 784502 997688 302120 112368
Last daily increment 1705 10250 2981 1164 1704 8439 261 3514 0 3218 0 30546 13147 22687 108930 0 630 856 3015 1604 3041 1910 136 722 0 1357 51 0 696 7063 4179 21 2722 563 3712 0 978 0 12399 2298 652 415 2231 564 1421 4313 3993 957 680 8514 7876 0 920 7912 671 1026 1881 5020 841 2242 329 1911 0 771 169
Last week 8903 51854 19580 10938 12649 50281 1389 19578 10797 8791 2116 191575 74609 125693 695849 1213 3112 4681 25148 41656 14265 9814 1087 3410 10663 7364 616 0 2449 45272 27709 8089 13192 2343 25134 5394 3500 40040 29466 16142 2499 1412 18172 2399 6192 7220 23735 9109 3790 58015 44640 0 5224 46504 6445 2645 10394 20155 6502 13768 2927 11572 11459 6171 1093
Previous peak date08-022021-03-242021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0912-062021-08-262021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-212021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-232021-01-0911-1604-172021-01-092021-01-132021-04-1311-192021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1311-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-09-1611-19
Previous peak daily increment 483 74829 7806 7360 17013 92148 12371 23864 23277 8364 10772 27993 17714 720225 239302 689 5166 2815 9265 43280 4983 949 285 792 16683 22916 245 4364 1492 12552 6415 2770 3603 3876 2172 3015 579 7755 6769 57408 2963 1163 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 2623 15822 17150 3935 1549 10117 4871 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 173 3223 12274 1847 801
Low between peaks 5 16748 2897 1343 3453 6864 3789 8820 2152 1487 5189 8231 937 6214 11288 26 798 156 412 -807 374 72 8 21 701 277 38 55 64 207 240 66 108 239 -15 54 16 64 -6055 102 41 225 11 -237 18 115 59 201 5685 230 86 131 143 82 6 48 9157 148 126 3 329 70 435 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-08 to 2021-12-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-07 10560341 48231703 1207336 1879784 707885 800203 2262666 6312346 522581 5246766 196180 7794665 978402 635027 1161879 602726 5134318 2790830 3704040 1172420 1788260 1219557 432793 1244362 294754 1078503
2021-12-08 10603000 48448000 1213000 1901000 711300 803200 2287000 6370000 527300 5266000 197200 7861000 987000 642400 1176000 607100 5144000 2812000 3724000 1173000 1790000 1220000 438700 1257000 300100 1086000
2021-12-09 10634000 48683000 1222000 1919000 714000 806000 2304000 6432000 531400 5289000 198000 7907000 994000 648600 1186000 610800 5157000 2833000 3745000 1174000 1792000 1220000 443100 1266000 304900 1094000
2021-12-10 10670000 48935000 1230000 1936000 716600 808800 2321000 6488000 535600 5310000 198800 7953000 1000000 652700 1197000 614900 5172000 2854000 3767000 1176000 1793000 1222000 446500 1280000 309900 1101000
2021-12-11 10708000 49123000 1236000 1936000 717800 811200 2338000 6527000 539500 5319000 199500 8006000 1005000 657200 1197000 619000 5185000 2874000 3789000 1180000 1795000 1222000 449900 1291000 314800 1107000
2021-12-12 10746000 49288000 1242000 1936000 718600 812800 2349000 6552000 543300 5328000 200200 8044000 1009000 660200 1197000 623200 5198000 2894000 3810000 1183000 1797000 1222000 452900 1299000 319800 1113000
2021-12-13 10786000 49484000 1248000 1976000 721100 814200 2356000 6576000 547000 5344000 200800 8053000 1014000 660300 1220000 627500 5207000 2913000 3822000 1185000 1797000 1222000 454400 1304000 324900 1119000
2021-12-14 10826000 49765000 1254000 1986000 723300 816800 2368000 6657000 550700 5369000 201400 8094000 1021000 663600 1224000 631800 5220000 2931000 3839000 1188000 1798000 1227000 456200 1313000 330100 1125000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-08 to 2021-12-14

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-07 222260 22157726 1823674 1775212 5084466 34656822 4258076 6141335 3902015 2246633 2835154 9692411 3051222 8945807 49387208 151999 849409 528824 1298091 5128343 846785 431162 68134 156751 3738097 1628052 85464 310008 1861171 1134898 478634 802408 773594 880476 592679 124095 1503712 944863 862767 517138 193005 1555216 165375 314998 168280 1279095 319990 462159 2796843 1743801 397421 1791030 925629 169789 1277081 4361295 446049 985297 53379 784502 997688 302120 112368
2021-12-08 223300 22167000 1825000 1779000 5087000 34663000 4259000 6148000 3908000 2250000 2838000 9724000 3051000 8968000 49427000 152700 849500 528900 1301000 5128000 849900 431900 68130 156800 3744000 1629000 85470 310500 1861000 1135000 480300 803000 774100 880500 593800 124700 1523000 945600 862800 517200 193700 1555000 166000 315300 168400 1283000 320900 462500 2806000 1750000 397900 1791000 925600 170200 1277000 4364000 447400 985300 53780 784500 1006000 303100 112600
2021-12-09 224500 22179000 1827000 1782000 5090000 34669000 4259000 6152000 3911000 2252000 2841000 9755000 3055000 8996000 49500000 153000 850100 529700 1305000 5134000 853500 433100 68130 157100 3744000 1630000 85520 310900 1865000 1135000 480300 803800 774300 882000 594900 125400 1523000 948800 864600 517500 194100 1556000 166600 316000 168900 1287000 322000 463100 2817000 1752000 398500 1795000 926000 170500 1278000 4367000 448300 986000 54240 787200 1012000 304200 112800
2021-12-10 225900 22189000 1830000 1785000 5092000 34674000 4259000 6156000 3915000 2254000 2842000 9785000 3064000 9020000 49611000 153500 850500 530400 1308000 5139000 856100 434500 68280 157600 3755000 1631000 85570 311400 1869000 1137000 480300 805200 774600 885600 595900 125900 1529000 953600 864600 517700 194600 1558000 167000 316800 169900 1291000 323700 463600 2827000 1756000 399400 1800000 927000 170800 1279000 4370000 449900 987300 54660 788600 1017000 305200 113100
2021-12-11 227000 22197000 1832000 1787000 5095000 34680000 4260000 6159000 3915000 2257000 2843000 9814000 3076000 9043000 49646000 153500 850900 531000 1311000 5140000 856100 434700 68280 158200 3755000 1631000 85630 311600 1869000 1139000 482200 805200 774600 885600 597900 126600 1529000 953600 867300 517700 194600 1558000 167300 316800 169900 1295000 323700 463600 2834000 1761000 399400 1804000 927000 170800 1279000 4371000 449900 987300 55060 788600 1017000 306200 113100
2021-12-12 228100 22201000 1834000 1790000 5097000 34685000 4260000 6162000 3918000 2258000 2845000 9842000 3078000 9065000 49665000 153500 851200 531200 1315000 5144000 856400 434900 68280 158700 3755000 1631000 85720 311600 1869000 1139000 482200 805200 774600 885600 598000 126600 1529000 953600 868000 517700 194600 1558000 167500 316800 169900 1298000 323700 463600 2842000 1765000 399400 1808000 927000 170800 1279000 4371000 449900 987300 55450 788600 1017000 307200 113100
2021-12-13 229300 22204000 1838000 1792000 5098000 34690000 4260000 6166000 3919000 2259000 2846000 9871000 3084000 9087000 49850000 154100 851400 531500 1318000 5157000 861300 437000 68690 158800 3755000 1634000 85750 312000 1884000 1148000 485100 809200 775400 893400 598200 126600 1531000 958700 870700 518700 195000 1565000 167600 318600 170900 1301000 327400 465200 2851000 1771000 401300 1810000 929600 171200 1283000 4376000 452200 990100 55830 792000 1019000 307800 113500
2021-12-14 230800 22213000 1841000 1793000 5100000 34695000 4260000 6169000 3919000 2261000 2846000 9899000 3093000 9109000 49947000 154100 851900 532300 1321000 5159000 864100 438800 68780 159300 3755000 1635000 85800 312600 1889000 1151000 485100 811600 776000 896200 598400 127500 1533000 970600 872600 519300 195400 1567000 168200 319900 173700 1304000 328300 465800 2859000 1776000 402100 1817000 930000 172200 1285000 4381000 452900 992000 56210 793600 1021000 308400 113600

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-08 to 2021-12-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-07 10560341 48231703 1207336 1879784 707885 800203 2262666 6312346 522581 5246766 196180 7794665 978402 635027 1161879 602726 5134318 2790830 3704040 1172420 1788260 1219557 432793 1244362 294754 1078503
2021-12-08 10602000 48485000 1213000 1900000 709700 803200 2284000 6374000 527800 5263000 197800 7840000 984000 639700 1172000 607200 5146000 2810000 3728000 1175000 1789000 1222000 434900 1255000 299200 1090000
2021-12-09 10636000 48678000 1222000 1918000 711400 805800 2301000 6427000 532000 5272000 199000 7878000 990000 644700 1182000 611400 5155000 2832000 3752000 1178000 1790000 1222000 436700 1265000 302400 1098000
2021-12-10 10671000 48854000 1229000 1935000 713100 808500 2319000 6475000 536200 5281000 200200 7915000 996000 648700 1192000 615700 5162000 2852000 3775000 1180000 1791000 1224000 438200 1277000 305800 1106000
2021-12-11 10706000 48967000 1237000 1943000 713900 810800 2336000 6510000 540300 5284000 200400 7957000 1001000 652900 1192000 620000 5170000 2872000 3798000 1183000 1792000 1224000 439800 1287000 308900 1111000
2021-12-12 10741000 49057000 1246000 1951000 714500 812300 2351000 6539000 544300 5286000 200700 7989000 1005000 656600 1193000 624400 5176000 2893000 3821000 1185000 1793000 1224000 441500 1295000 312000 1116000
2021-12-13 10777000 49155000 1252000 1978000 716400 813800 2358000 6569000 548400 5294000 202800 8006000 1011000 658900 1214000 628800 5180000 2913000 3838000 1187000 1794000 1224000 442800 1303000 315200 1123000
2021-12-14 10813000 49282000 1258000 1993000 718100 816300 2372000 6616000 552500 5303000 203400 8042000 1018000 662900 1219000 633300 5185000 2933000 3857000 1189000 1795000 1226000 444300 1312000 318600 1129000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-08 to 2021-12-14

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-07 222260 22157726 1823674 1775212 5084466 34656822 4258076 6141335 3902015 2246633 2835154 9692411 3051222 8945807 49387208 151999 849409 528824 1298091 5128343 846785 431162 68134 156751 3738097 1628052 85464 310008 1861171 1134898 478634 802408 773594 880476 592679 124095 1503712 944863 862767 517138 193005 1555216 165375 314998 168280 1279095 319990 462159 2796843 1743801 397421 1791030 925629 169789 1277081 4361295 446049 985297 53379 784502 997688 302120 112368
2021-12-08 223800 22169000 1826000 1777000 5086000 34664000 4258000 6144000 3906000 2248000 2835000 9715000 3060000 8968000 49503000 152200 849800 529400 1301000 5132000 849800 433200 68260 157200 3738000 1629000 85540 310500 1867000 1139000 480600 804900 774200 884400 593100 124800 1518000 950100 864600 517600 193400 1558000 165900 315900 169600 1283000 321300 462700 2806000 1751000 398200 1797000 926500 170400 1279000 4365000 447300 987500 53770 785100 1000000 302800 112500
2021-12-09 224900 22181000 1828000 1779000 5089000 34668000 4259000 6147000 3908000 2250000 2836000 9731000 3066000 8991000 49585000 152500 850000 529900 1304000 5135000 852600 434400 68290 157500 3740000 1630000 85640 310900 1872000 1142000 481000 806100 774400 886200 593900 125400 1520000 953700 866800 517900 193600 1560000 166400 316600 170400 1286000 322400 463200 2814000 1755000 398800 1804000 927100 170600 1280000 4366000 448200 988900 54170 786500 1005000 303500 112700
2021-12-10 226100 22192000 1830000 1781000 5091000 34671000 4259000 6149000 3912000 2251000 2836000 9746000 3073000 9013000 49698000 152800 850300 530300 1308000 5137000 854500 435600 68390 158000 3746000 1631000 85730 311300 1876000 1145000 481700 807600 774600 888900 594700 125800 1532000 958100 868100 518200 193800 1562000 166800 317400 171400 1289000 324000 463700 2822000 1760000 399500 1811000 928100 170800 1281000 4368000 449400 990300 54540 787200 1007000 304300 112800
2021-12-11 226900 22200000 1832000 1783000 5093000 34675000 4259000 6150000 3913000 2252000 2837000 9761000 3084000 9035000 49731000 152900 850500 530700 1311000 5138000 855000 436300 68390 158500 3747000 1632000 85820 311600 1878000 1147000 483500 808400 774600 889500 596000 126300 1533000 960000 870700 518400 193800 1562000 167200 317800 171900 1293000 324000 463800 2829000 1764000 399800 1818000 928300 170800 1281000 4368000 449800 990800 54930 787200 1007000 305200 112900
2021-12-12 227600 22204000 1834000 1785000 5095000 34678000 4259000 6152000 3916000 2253000 2837000 9776000 3090000 9057000 49748000 153100 850600 530900 1314000 5140000 855600 437100 68390 158900 3748000 1632000 85920 311800 1880000 1149000 484100 809200 774600 890100 596100 126400 1535000 962000 871900 518500 193900 1562000 167400 318200 172300 1295000 324000 464000 2837000 1766000 400100 1824000 928400 170900 1282000 4369000 450200 991300 55330 787200 1007000 306000 112900
2021-12-13 228300 22207000 1836000 1787000 5097000 34682000 4260000 6155000 3918000 2254000 2838000 9791000 3095000 9079000 49881000 153500 850700 531000 1317000 5145000 858900 438500 68570 159200 3748000 1634000 86000 312100 1889000 1154000 485700 811600 775200 893300 596200 126500 1547000 965700 874300 519100 194100 1567000 167500 319400 173600 1299000 326900 465000 2846000 1768000 401300 1829000 930100 171000 1284000 4371000 451700 993300 55750 788800 1009000 306700 113200
2021-12-14 229100 22215000 1838000 1788000 5099000 34685000 4260000 6157000 3919000 2256000 2838000 9806000 3101000 9100000 49959000 153700 850900 531300 1321000 5146000 860500 439900 68600 159600 3750000 1635000 86070 312600 1894000 1156000 486300 813300 775600 894800 596600 127000 1551000 973100 876100 519500 194400 1569000 168200 320300 174700 1302000 327600 465700 2853000 1770000 401900 1835000 930500 171500 1285000 4374000 452500 994500 56070 789300 1012000 307300 113400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed