COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-12-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-192021-12-072021-11-182021-12-092021-10-252021-10-282021-11-302021-12-09 --2021-07-26 -- --2021-11-122021-11-122021-11-292021-09-162021-08-212021-11-292021-03-262021-07-202021-10-202021-04-132021-11-132021-11-252021-12-10 --
Peak daily increment 45515 268801 13544 18137 4798 4720 17766 59647 26567 6823 5312 9824 1921 6503 22067 27942 3220 14734 6131 3360 10887 5416
Days since peak 55 6 25 4 49 46 13 4 140 31 31 14 88 114 14 262 146 54 244 30 18 3
Last total 10873468 49667901 1232204 1959193 714688 814849 2338402 6581433 562188 5339992 205357 8065182 1006706 654655 1198939 628306 5238221 2894209 3839625 1196602 1793643 1229217 440633 1289252 317880 1135363
Last daily increment 53953 207368 4170 29421 0 2019 4113 35423 7799 49802 4306 0 3829 453 16017 4683 12704 13783 11377 2314 494 0 681 2916 0 23440
Last week 313127 1436198 24868 79409 6803 14646 75736 269087 39607 93226 9177 270517 28304 19628 37060 25580 103903 103379 135585 24182 5383 9660 7840 44890 23126 56860
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-282021-03-2212-1810-2612-1612-172021-01-252021-08-1211-022021-04-0712-122021-03-222021-01-0811-1212-1811-082021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-062021-09-0311-04
Previous peak daily increment 57060 211152 7110 16473 3756 3823 12284 23745 3726 37891 812 51667 2958 3554 8671 5771 34940 11039 24662 12346 8603 8568 1746 6248 1417 9656
Low between peaks -2803 -209002 76 429 59 87 117 549 -30756 360 67 33 217 716 422 5006 345 42 2601 28 36 411

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-12-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-10-142021-09-182021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-182021-04-092021-09-102021-11-03 --2021-04-162021-08-302021-09-272021-10-272021-08-132021-08-262021-08-202021-11-10 --2021-09-072021-11-202021-08-062021-08-302021-08-29 --2021-09-292021-08-30 --2021-09-062021-08-302021-08-09 --2021-11-27 -- --2021-11-302021-11-182021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-022021-01-132021-11-122021-09-132021-03-242021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-10-062021-09-0611-132021-09-072021-01-122021-11-122021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302021-11-292021-11-292021-09-20
Peak daily increment 2289 112363 8652 7273 29826 387073 47192 38207 18308 8725 20603 39258 58965 164201 1363 4936 2236 3955 15463 3276 274 980 35957 8912 1000 1291 4098 1688 4276 5893 1360 4253 6476 3631 918 6941 601 32298 2281 5865 1385 1142 20523 6886 4745 2271 4894 5415 1362 14652 21848 1235 3683 1299 3421 3640 2367 554
Days since peak 60 86 245 192 170 222 151 123 117 248 94 40 241 105 77 47 122 109 115 33 97 23 129 105 106 75 105 98 105 126 16 13 25 119 77 91 76 79 41 334 31 91 264 88 103 112 68 98 395 97 335 31 91 14 105 14 14 84
Last total 232738 22177059 1849762 1784165 5095821 34703644 4259249 6157519 3918216 2254373 2836803 9871229 3180785 9060945 50119422 153298 852574 532793 1316189 5171415 858270 445721 68702 160833 3751081 1637021 86372 545768 312184 1904177 1162284 490101 815274 776517 907261 592679 129986 1553644 959864 877536 519851 193905 1575054 167271 319970 175896 1306138 326909 465906 2859888 1787029 674679 401564 1843137 932206 171583 1287143 4395205 451282 1000694 56035 792220 1033629 308204 113077
Last daily increment 1970 0 8090 5795 2287 5784 106 2706 855 0 211 29208 13288 18796 198017 410 294 268 0 14869 4295 7855 0 583 0 3175 147 0 494 19523 11385 3206 4373 1169 10993 0 6 17625 3640 1443 736 187 8794 124 1512 3461 3272 2431 1521 13500 5618 0 1376 5395 3129 335 3663 4444 2049 6625 420 3350 9535 772 215
Last week 10478 19333 26088 8953 11355 46822 1173 16184 16201 7740 1649 178818 129563 115138 725297 1299 3165 3969 18098 36942 11485 14559 568 4082 12984 8969 908 17597 2176 43006 27386 11467 12866 2923 26785 0 5891 49932 15001 14769 2713 900 19838 1896 4972 7616 27043 6919 3747 63045 43228 8707 4143 52107 6577 1794 10062 33910 5233 15397 2656 7718 35941 6084 709
Previous peak date08-022021-03-242021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-07-0212-102021-01-0912-062021-08-262021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-182021-01-112021-01-1012-062021-01-0211-0308-2711-1212-0811-1212-0511-162021-01-1011-162021-01-102021-01-092021-01-132021-04-0811-192021-03-112021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2712-102021-01-1208-2712-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-09-1611-19
Previous peak daily increment 483 74845 7808 7348 17013 92159 12373 23864 22831 8380 10770 27998 20515 720121 239235 689 5136 2817 9264 43283 4984 2579 285 792 16406 21992 245 4362 1493 12336 6415 3244 3605 3407 5455 3015 578 7847 6763 57080 2921 1163 8243 2132 3072 793 4272 2333 2623 15820 17473 3943 1537 10121 4802 465 7648 26263 2491 6324 173 3223 12345 1847 800
Low between peaks 5 16636 2897 1343 3454 8623 3784 8823 2145 1490 5186 8229 6223 11050 26 785 155 411 -740 374 7 21 832 278 38 64 207 63 109 239 54 62 -6143 101 41 226 11 -244 18 115 59 202 5625 235 87 130 139 84 232 48 9248 148 126 3 329 70 311 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-14 to 2021-12-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-13 10873468 49667901 1232204 1959193 714688 814849 2338402 6581433 562188 5339992 205357 8065182 1006706 654655 1198939 628306 5238221 2894209 3839625 1196602 1793643 1229217 440633 1289252 317880 1135363
2021-12-14 10913000 49968000 1236000 1959000 718800 817700 2364000 6671000 569000 5374000 206300 8102000 1018000 660800 1213000 632900 5238000 2911000 3863000 1198000 1795000 1233000 442100 1308000 319200 1153000
2021-12-15 10934000 50234000 1243000 1973000 721700 820800 2389000 6724000 574800 5387000 207600 8143000 1026000 666800 1225000 637300 5243000 2926000 3892000 1201000 1796000 1235000 443300 1321000 319700 1165000
2021-12-16 10962000 50543000 1248000 1983000 723900 823500 2407000 6806000 580500 5418000 209200 8185000 1033000 671900 1235000 641500 5248000 2942000 3919000 1204000 1797000 1236000 444000 1332000 320600 1175000
2021-12-17 10994000 50773000 1252000 1992000 726000 826100 2424000 6855000 585800 5438000 210700 8205000 1039000 675600 1244000 645600 5258000 2958000 3943000 1206000 1798000 1238000 444600 1342000 321900 1185000
2021-12-18 11027000 50991000 1257000 1992000 726800 828200 2439000 6887000 590900 5457000 211000 8253000 1045000 679600 1245000 649800 5266000 2975000 3965000 1211000 1798000 1238000 445600 1351000 323200 1187000
2021-12-19 11062000 51131000 1261000 1992000 727200 829700 2448000 6898000 595900 5471000 211000 8297000 1049000 681500 1245000 653900 5277000 2990000 3984000 1214000 1799000 1238000 445600 1357000 324700 1187000
2021-12-20 11099000 51320000 1265000 2013000 728200 831500 2452000 6929000 600900 5499000 213900 8297000 1053000 681800 1262000 658000 5287000 3004000 3994000 1216000 1800000 1238000 445700 1360000 326200 1201000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-14 to 2021-12-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-13 232738 22177059 1849762 1784165 5095821 34703644 4259249 6157519 3918216 2254373 2836803 9871229 3180785 9060945 50119422 153298 852574 532793 1316189 5171415 858270 445721 68702 160833 3751081 1637021 86372 545768 312184 1904177 1162284 490101 815274 776517 907261 129986 1553644 959864 877536 519851 193905 1575054 167271 319970 175896 1306138 326909 465906 2859888 1787029 674679 401564 1843137 932206 171583 1287143 4395205 451282 1000694 56035 792220 1033629 308204 113077
2021-12-14 233400 22186000 1855000 1788000 5098000 34711000 4259000 6162000 3920000 2256000 2837000 9901000 3203000 9080000 50156000 153600 852800 533500 1319000 5175000 861600 445700 68910 160800 3751000 1637000 86370 546400 312700 1906000 1163000 490100 816200 776700 907300 130000 1554000 971300 879500 520100 194500 1575000 168000 321100 176800 1310000 328400 466300 2860000 1793000 674700 402400 1845000 932200 172600 1288000 4395000 452500 1001000 56430 793900 1034000 309100 113400
2021-12-15 234500 22192000 1860000 1791000 5099000 34718000 4260000 6165000 3924000 2256000 2837000 9929000 3235000 9101000 50250000 154100 853200 534100 1324000 5180000 864300 447200 68990 161000 3752000 1639000 86420 553800 313300 1909000 1167000 493500 818000 777300 909800 130500 1570000 973600 880100 520600 194900 1577000 168600 322000 177300 1314000 329900 466800 2861000 1798000 678100 403200 1850000 932500 173100 1289000 4397000 453800 1002000 56760 794400 1043000 310200 113600
2021-12-16 235900 22198000 1866000 1794000 5101000 34725000 4260000 6169000 3929000 2258000 2838000 9957000 3271000 9121000 50336000 154200 853600 534800 1328000 5183000 867000 450300 69120 161500 3752000 1640000 86530 553900 313700 1915000 1171000 493500 819600 777600 913200 131400 1570000 976300 881300 521100 195200 1579000 169000 322900 178200 1319000 331400 467500 2866000 1803000 678200 404000 1856000 933300 173500 1290000 4399000 454800 1004000 57110 796300 1047000 311300 113800
2021-12-17 237300 22198000 1871000 1797000 5103000 34732000 4260000 6172000 3931000 2259000 2838000 9985000 3305000 9140000 50478000 154600 854000 535600 1332000 5187000 869100 455100 69300 162100 3768000 1641000 86640 553900 314000 1921000 1175000 495300 822300 777900 917300 132700 1579000 980400 882700 521300 195400 1582000 169400 323900 179100 1324000 332600 467900 2873000 1809000 678400 404800 1865000 934400 173800 1293000 4405000 455900 1006000 57470 797700 1052000 312400 113900
2021-12-18 238500 22198000 1877000 1800000 5105000 34739000 4260000 6174000 3933000 2260000 2838000 10012000 3345000 9159000 50521000 154600 854500 536200 1335000 5189000 869300 457400 69300 162500 3771000 1641000 86790 554700 314100 1921000 1175000 495700 822300 777900 917300 133200 1579000 980400 884300 521300 195500 1582000 169700 323900 179100 1328000 332800 468000 2875000 1815000 680900 404900 1873000 934400 173800 1293000 4409000 455900 1006000 57820 797700 1052000 313200 113900
2021-12-19 240100 22198000 1881000 1803000 5106000 34746000 4260000 6176000 3935000 2261000 2838000 10039000 3392000 9177000 50552000 154600 854800 536400 1338000 5195000 869300 459300 69300 163100 3772000 1641000 86960 554700 314100 1921000 1175000 495700 822300 777900 917300 133200 1579000 980400 886000 521300 195500 1582000 169800 323900 179100 1331000 332800 468000 2879000 1821000 680900 404900 1879000 934400 173800 1293000 4410000 455900 1006000 58170 797700 1052000 313900 113900
2021-12-20 241700 22198000 1886000 1806000 5108000 34753000 4260000 6179000 3936000 2261000 2838000 10067000 3392000 9195000 50731000 155000 855000 536600 1341000 5205000 873200 463400 69430 163500 3773000 1645000 87070 554700 314500 1937000 1185000 498600 825900 778900 925900 133200 1591000 983700 887800 522000 195600 1590000 169900 325400 181600 1334000 335600 469400 2890000 1827000 683300 406300 1884000 937200 174100 1296000 4414000 457800 1012000 58530 800500 1058000 314600 114200

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-14 to 2021-12-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-12-13 10873468 49667901 1232204 1959193 714688 814849 2338402 6581433 562188 5339992 205357 8065182 1006706 654655 1198939 628306 5238221 2894209 3839625 1196602 1793643 1229217 440633 1289252 317880 1135363
2021-12-14 10918000 49899000 1235000 1968000 716100 817700 2349000 6641000 568700 5363000 206800 8102000 1013000 657600 1201000 632800 5251000 2909000 3858000 1200000 1794000 1232000 441700 1297000 321800 1146000
2021-12-15 10954000 50072000 1239000 1984000 717800 820800 2369000 6684000 574100 5370000 207700 8145000 1019000 662500 1209000 637200 5260000 2925000 3885000 1203000 1795000 1233000 443100 1308000 325900 1155000
2021-12-16 10992000 50267000 1242000 1999000 719200 823400 2385000 6746000 579500 5385000 209000 8187000 1024000 666700 1217000 641500 5266000 2941000 3911000 1206000 1796000 1235000 444200 1317000 329800 1163000
2021-12-17 11032000 50401000 1245000 2012000 720500 826000 2400000 6785000 584900 5395000 210500 8215000 1029000 670400 1224000 645700 5275000 2956000 3935000 1209000 1797000 1236000 445200 1327000 333700 1171000
2021-12-18 11072000 50523000 1250000 2020000 721000 828200 2416000 6815000 590300 5404000 210600 8251000 1034000 674500 1226000 650000 5281000 2973000 3959000 1212000 1798000 1236000 446600 1336000 336800 1175000
2021-12-19 11112000 50604000 1253000 2027000 721500 830000 2428000 6833000 595700 5413000 210700 8287000 1038000 677900 1227000 654200 5288000 2989000 3980000 1214000 1799000 1236000 447500 1344000 339800 1180000
2021-12-20 11153000 50703000 1255000 2052000 723000 831700 2434000 6859000 601100 5428000 213000 8309000 1042000 680200 1248000 658500 5293000 3004000 3998000 1216000 1799000 1236000 448300 1351000 343300 1191000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-14 to 2021-12-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-12-13 232738 22177059 1849762 1784165 5095821 34703644 4259249 6157519 3918216 2254373 2836803 9871229 3180785 9060945 50119422 153298 852574 532793 1316189 5171415 858270 445721 68702 160833 3751081 1637021 86372 545768 312184 1904177 1162284 490101 815274 776517 907261 129986 1553644 959864 877536 519851 193905 1575054 167271 319970 175896 1306138 326909 465906 2859888 1787029 674679 401564 1843137 932206 171583 1287143 4395205 451282 1000694 56035 792220 1033629 308204 113077
2021-12-14 234300 22183000 1854000 1786000 5098000 34709000 4259000 6160000 3919000 2256000 2837000 9893000 3198000 9080000 50205000 153400 852900 533300 1319000 5176000 860400 447800 68720 161400 3752000 1638000 86470 545300 312700 1911000 1166000 491000 817200 777000 910700 130100 1562000 967300 879000 520200 194200 1577000 167800 320900 178000 1310000 327400 466400 2869000 1793000 674600 402100 1850000 932900 172400 1289000 4399000 452100 1003000 56420 793300 1037000 309100 113200
2021-12-15 235700 22193000 1856000 1788000 5100000 34712000 4260000 6162000 3922000 2257000 2837000 9906000 3212000 9099000 50289000 153700 853200 533700 1322000 5179000 862800 448500 68760 161800 3753000 1640000 86520 548200 313100 1915000 1171000 493300 818900 777400 913300 130600 1583000 970500 880800 520500 194400 1579000 168300 321700 179000 1314000 328500 466900 2877000 1797000 676200 402800 1858000 933500 172800 1290000 4401000 453100 1004000 56770 793700 1046000 310000 113400
2021-12-16 237000 22202000 1859000 1790000 5101000 34716000 4260000 6164000 3926000 2259000 2837000 9920000 3228000 9118000 50355000 153900 853400 534200 1325000 5181000 865000 449700 68830 162400 3753000 1641000 86620 550300 313500 1921000 1175000 494000 820400 777600 916100 131200 1587000 973900 882800 520900 194600 1582000 168700 322600 180100 1319000 329700 467500 2887000 1802000 676800 403500 1864000 934400 173000 1291000 4403000 454000 1006000 57200 794600 1050000 311000 113500
2021-12-17 238300 22205000 1862000 1791000 5103000 34719000 4260000 6165000 3928000 2260000 2837000 9934000 3244000 9137000 50466000 154200 853600 534700 1329000 5183000 866800 452100 68950 162900 3761000 1642000 86730 551100 313900 1927000 1179000 495800 822500 777800 919000 132200 1600000 977800 884500 521200 194700 1585000 169000 323500 181200 1324000 330900 467900 2896000 1807000 677200 404200 1873000 935500 173200 1293000 4408000 454900 1008000 57630 795300 1054000 312000 113600
2021-12-18 239200 22211000 1865000 1793000 5105000 34723000 4260000 6167000 3930000 2261000 2838000 9948000 3261000 9156000 50487000 154300 853900 535000 1332000 5184000 867000 453100 68950 163400 3762000 1642000 86840 552600 314100 1929000 1182000 496800 823300 777800 919700 132700 1600000 979700 887000 521300 194700 1585000 169400 324000 181800 1328000 331000 468100 2903000 1810000 678500 404500 1881000 935600 173300 1294000 4410000 455400 1008000 58040 795300 1054000 312800 113700
2021-12-19 240400 22214000 1867000 1795000 5106000 34727000 4261000 6168000 3933000 2262000 2838000 9962000 3278000 9174000 50505000 154400 854000 535200 1335000 5188000 867200 454100 68950 163800 3764000 1643000 86960 554400 314300 1932000 1184000 497600 824200 777900 920400 132800 1602000 981600 888800 521500 194800 1586000 169600 324500 182300 1331000 331100 468300 2911000 1813000 679500 404800 1887000 935800 173300 1295000 4411000 455900 1009000 58440 795300 1054000 313600 113700
2021-12-20 241400 22219000 1869000 1797000 5108000 34730000 4261000 6170000 3934000 2263000 2838000 9975000 3290000 9193000 50612000 154700 854000 535400 1338000 5191000 871000 455900 69070 164200 3765000 1645000 87040 555400 314700 1941000 1190000 499800 826300 778300 924100 133000 1613000 985500 891000 521900 194900 1591000 169900 325800 183500 1335000 334100 469400 2920000 1816000 680500 406000 1892000 937600 173500 1297000 4413000 457400 1012000 58880 796800 1056000 314300 114000

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed