COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-02-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-31 -- --2022-01-30 -- -- -- -- --2022-01-17 --2022-01-292022-01-04 -- --2022-01-042022-01-122022-02-01 -- --2022-02-012022-02-01 --2022-02-01 -- --
Peak daily increment 711563 49546 131937 343808 35544 25705 179367 92283 34252 51041 22283
Days since peak 4 5 18 6 31 31 23 3 3 3 3
Last total 17689885 91988388 1995346 3296038 988518 1259216 3181709 10938030 1927340 10199716 514892 19890150 2020846 971464 1616846 1205914 11449601 4757035 5083332 2843029 2356792 2287785 774584 1660336 870245 2364613
Last daily increment 82053 1055665 36329 28382 8116 22941 37797 214386 40179 0 6952 240876 18640 8094 16435 6697 100900 68916 47536 47199 31776 28129 11744 20383 20856 33400
Last week 1283762 6851721 194306 240113 49306 115342 210602 1163183 250051 420586 39461 1509168 110966 41962 108488 36269 628226 511942 278942 276478 180066 217329 86248 113429 119224 233536
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-292021-10-252021-10-282021-11-262021-11-242021-08-182021-07-26 --2021-08-052021-06-05 --2021-11-222021-08-202021-08-212021-07-152021-12-022021-07-212021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-12-032021-09-012021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 15091 18754 4795 4951 20070 60387 1044 26574 22046 893 10225 1836 6503 9508 24971 3206 15615 1245 3272 11860 1515 5639
Low between peaks 5918 1518 3020 385 119 2498 1257 627 534 2585

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-02-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-12 --2022-01-05 --2022-01-152022-01-142022-01-06 --2022-01-272022-01-272022-01-15 --2021-12-12 --2022-01-10 --2022-01-252022-01-112022-01-172022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-102021-12-312022-01-102022-01-19 -- --2022-01-032022-01-172022-01-142022-01-312022-01-032022-01-032021-12-28 --2022-01-192022-01-312022-01-042022-01-03 --2022-01-182022-01-252022-01-172022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-15 --2022-01-182022-01-082022-01-182022-01-19 --2022-01-122022-01-182022-01-102021-11-292022-01-182022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 102645 42372 29726 416906 611 42054 47568 31829 20848 765324 48968 7834 43191 117756 22851 10384 3465 3023 103457 45056 4159 32907 14142 12799 12362 13308 19233 64095 19064 12940 12567 7825 58214 2152 4059 7344 30947 8316 16626 87466 31363 8802 27754 19020 4555 58657 13709 18390 1273 19864 55171 5151 1558
Days since peak 23 30 20 21 29 8 8 20 54 25 10 24 18 26 25 25 39 25 35 25 16 32 18 21 4 32 32 38 16 4 31 32 17 10 18 17 29 17 16 32 20 17 27 17 16 23 17 25 67 17 18 32 17
Last total 2704275 26326454 3109754 2296712 5943783 42080664 4353370 6520707 5106048 3331290 3594002 12257664 3616075 12051852 76354040 224115 1240496 768120 1903411 8601576 1270035 703436 131543 249407 5650603 2314691 219059 722458 389715 2957334 1646937 744987 1191476 1132570 1493415 960580 179914 2252336 1350540 1248068 751862 250029 2468806 229271 441821 273299 2122761 483475 665211 4839062 2605245 976776 654343 2688808 1406933 230240 1786513 6311648 670925 1572022 92932 1363526 1535404 458112 149842
Last daily increment 27336 218560 14113 38707 13390 127952 0 36908 78178 22597 8541 166957 0 111157 371447 3826 11196 1334 9077 22432 3695 1267 259 595 131358 8624 1164 0 2428 18449 4312 4732 6052 6205 4180 1600 1413 11808 5608 2659 7839 4423 12420 1184 1112 1480 3036 2047 2104 8091 4004 0 4954 7091 6657 569 0 21808 1835 6500 254 11566 4008 2911 716
Last week 133752 1070256 84471 189100 87925 988142 22607 198524 189905 170558 65206 830655 14445 613376 2085407 12463 34188 22013 58499 302354 29797 10039 1726 3334 131358 52940 8974 22720 11994 60378 42865 21877 50596 28201 28629 9495 5690 58377 53791 27486 34196 11228 96739 6623 10214 9152 18683 18813 17123 48610 34224 62850 33691 39561 51817 4857 92519 175268 15784 46419 1834 72387 31984 15906 5316
Previous peak date --2021-06-16 --2021-06-122021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122021-08-122021-06-052021-09-102021-11-042021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-09-072021-09-232021-09-032021-08-302021-08-292021-12-082021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-09-252021-06-07 --2021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-10-132021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-13 --2021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-06-082021-08-30 --2021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 72652 6997 29569 90762 47188 38196 18191 3719 20602 39137 19200 163887 1313 5166 2236 3904 15449 655 256 466 40728 8907 1001 4474 1290 4099 5243 1581 4325 5922 190 1247 58 242 2608 3631 999 6935 601 31639 2331 1142 6892 4762 2270 521 5397 461 14956 18451 1194 3686 10 3420 1847 555
Low between peaks 1351 1876 141 617 -1464 -394 96 70806 379 400 1655 4326 310 30 219 -2312 738 56 1989 1566 742 1151 -8 43 -820 64 851 83 1585 251 292 652 408 3348 396 128 -39 175 3045 146 1215 2 772 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-04 17689885 91988388 1995346 3296038 988518 1259216 3181709 10938030 1927340 10199716 514892 19890150 2020846 971464 1616846 1205914 11449601 4757035 5083332 2843029 2356792 2287785 774584 1660336 870245 2364613
2022-02-05 17785000 93118000 2044000 3332000 997000 1287000 3238000 11052000 2008000 10452000 521300 20421000 2040000 984000 1617000 1209000 11759000 4836000 5132000 2884000 2357000 2302000 784900 1684000 916000 2369000
2022-02-06 17880000 93803000 2071000 3332000 998000 1305000 3264000 11116000 2039000 10534000 530100 20742000 2060000 991000 1617000 1213000 11941000 4918000 5165000 2912000 2367000 2302000 796500 1702000 920000 2369000
2022-02-07 17975000 94776000 2096000 3438000 1008000 1323000 3287000 11281000 2065000 10818000 537700 20824000 2079000 992000 1647000 1217000 12025000 4997000 5185000 2924000 2369000 2302000 804700 1711000 930000 2450000
2022-02-08 18062000 96126000 2124000 3469000 1018000 1341000 3317000 11492000 2105000 10946000 544500 21257000 2098000 1000000 1652000 1220000 12201000 5073000 5211000 2957000 2387000 2412000 816100 1733000 954000 2480000
2022-02-09 18150000 97380000 2160000 3515000 1026000 1362000 3367000 11694000 2148000 11101000 551200 21554000 2117000 1010000 1667000 1223000 12353000 5150000 5258000 2992000 2408000 2448000 834500 1756000 976000 2515000
2022-02-10 18237000 98688000 2194000 3560000 1035000 1383000 3407000 11904000 2185000 11223000 557500 21828000 2135000 1019000 1686000 1226000 12460000 5227000 5297000 3035000 2426000 2489000 849800 1775000 993000 2553000
2022-02-11 18324000 99821000 2235000 3593000 1042000 1408000 3447000 12134000 2226000 11241000 563800 22083000 2154000 1027000 1700000 1229000 12576000 5304000 5347000 3090000 2474000 2523000 862000 1796000 1010000 2586000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-04 2704275 26326454 3109754 2296712 5943783 42080664 4353370 6520707 5106048 3331290 3594002 12257664 3616075 12051852 76354040 224115 1240496 768120 1903411 8601576 1270035 703436 131543 249407 5650603 2314691 219059 722458 389715 2957334 1646937 744987 1191476 1132570 1493415 960580 179914 2252336 1350540 1248068 751862 250029 2468806 229271 441821 273299 2122761 483475 665211 4839062 2605245 976776 654343 2688808 1406933 230240 1786513 6311648 670925 1572022 92932 1363526 1535404 458112 149842
2022-02-05 2770000 26477000 3137000 2334000 5958000 42623000 4353000 6556000 5165000 3410000 3604000 12419000 3619000 12137000 76806000 226600 1251000 772600 1916000 8667000 1284000 712000 131500 252100 5651000 2343000 220500 731500 393400 2997000 1647000 760700 1208000 1140000 1500000 962400 181300 2289000 1367000 1271000 757900 252100 2482000 233600 449100 274000 2149000 484000 683900 4848000 2628000 977000 663900 2716000 1436000 234600 1801000 6323000 678600 1595000 93600 1393000 1536000 466500 151600
2022-02-06 2941000 26565000 3183000 2367000 5977000 42959000 4353000 6588000 5194000 3477000 3621000 12574000 3624000 12219000 78024000 227000 1262000 786000 1944000 8871000 1291000 715600 131500 253500 5667000 2352000 222500 731500 393800 3017000 1647000 767000 1211000 1157000 1527000 965500 181300 2298000 1369000 1280000 759300 253500 2482000 235300 451600 274100 2163000 484000 691500 4870000 2681000 977000 667700 2731000 1440000 236400 1849000 6351000 679100 1601000 95600 1396000 1539000 471300 152000
2022-02-07 3061000 26659000 3218000 2397000 5993000 43195000 4353000 6620000 5207000 3495000 3634000 12724000 3628000 12308000 78876000 231400 1264000 795300 1964000 9009000 1311000 723000 131700 254400 5667000 2384000 224200 731500 396100 3056000 1657000 776700 1231000 1169000 1544000 968000 181300 2327000 1382000 1286000 768600 257100 2526000 235900 458500 278500 2172000 491600 709200 4886000 2719000 977000 681900 2741000 1445000 238600 1872000 6371000 687200 1630000 97000 1437000 1555000 473800 154000
2022-02-08 3152000 26818000 3248000 2424000 6008000 43414000 4353000 6651000 5244000 3519000 3645000 12863000 3631000 12402000 79536000 231400 1273000 802300 1980000 9113000 1318000 725700 132900 254900 5676000 2396000 225600 731500 398600 3083000 1657000 777900 1245000 1177000 1556000 970100 182500 2327000 1401000 1295000 776900 259300 2533000 238300 460900 278900 2181000 493500 714300 4898000 2748000 977000 691000 2750000 1474000 241000 1910000 6388000 689900 1638000 98000 1444000 1560000 476100 155400
2022-02-09 3237000 27003000 3276000 2454000 6022000 43628000 4353000 6681000 5259000 3555000 3656000 13010000 3634000 12500000 80151000 236600 1281000 808900 1996000 9208000 1324000 727400 133500 255700 5710000 2412000 227100 748600 401300 3100000 1660000 791900 1254000 1185000 1567000 972200 183800 2363000 1414000 1305000 784100 261500 2538000 240200 465400 279900 2191000 495400 724300 4910000 2775000 1035000 698000 2760000 1492000 242900 1910000 6403000 692200 1648000 99000 1466000 1566000 479600 156700
2022-02-10 3308000 27256000 3301000 2488000 6036000 43787000 4353000 6712000 5297000 3593000 3666000 13158000 3637000 12600000 80664000 236600 1281000 814300 2010000 9286000 1329000 728800 133600 256600 5710000 2423000 228400 748600 404200 3102000 1661000 791900 1264000 1192000 1576000 974100 185200 2363000 1424000 1311000 790600 263300 2548000 241900 467100 280300 2199000 497600 728800 4919000 2797000 1035000 704000 2768000 1497000 244300 1910000 6416000 692500 1653000 99700 1467000 1569000 483400 157800
2022-02-11 3374000 27465000 3325000 2525000 6049000 43970000 4353000 6742000 5371000 3619000 3675000 13308000 3640000 12699000 81141000 241000 1297000 819300 2022000 9356000 1335000 731400 133900 257400 5964000 2432000 229600 748600 407100 3125000 1668000 801800 1271000 1198000 1583000 975900 186500 2378000 1430000 1315000 796300 267000 2571000 243400 469100 282600 2204000 502600 728800 4928000 2818000 1035000 710100 2777000 1508000 244600 1924000 6428000 696200 1659000 100400 1482000 1582000 486900 158500

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-04 17689885 91988388 1995346 3296038 988518 1259216 3181709 10938030 1927340 10199716 514892 19890150 2020846 971464 1616846 1205914 11449601 4757035 5083332 2843029 2356792 2287785 774584 1660336 870245 2364613
2022-02-05 17765000 92944000 2038000 3297000 994000 1280000 3229000 11079000 1966000 10177000 522700 20194000 2039000 982000 1621000 1211000 11579000 4826000 5135000 2899000 2385000 2289000 789500 1683000 888000 2367000
2022-02-06 17816000 93724000 2067000 3297000 997000 1296000 3259000 11164000 2015000 10200000 529600 20452000 2050000 989000 1621000 1216000 11691000 4907000 5184000 2945000 2408000 2290000 804100 1701000 904000 2367000
2022-02-07 17982000 94731000 2099000 3383000 1007000 1315000 3285000 11343000 2050000 10398000 539500 20494000 2067000 990000 1654000 1220000 11732000 4999000 5220000 2976000 2428000 2290000 813100 1712000 922000 2442000
2022-02-08 18081000 96151000 2128000 3418000 1018000 1332000 3318000 11578000 2096000 10471000 544900 20932000 2086000 997000 1662000 1223000 11895000 5083000 5258000 3028000 2462000 2386000 826100 1732000 950000 2476000
2022-02-09 18171000 97528000 2171000 3467000 1027000 1355000 3369000 11814000 2158000 10596000 550000 21273000 2103000 1008000 1678000 1226000 12049000 5157000 5315000 3081000 2497000 2430000 847100 1753000 977000 2513000
2022-02-10 18235000 98864000 2216000 3523000 1035000 1378000 3423000 12049000 2210000 10710000 557700 21618000 2119000 1018000 1696000 1230000 12200000 5237000 5375000 3140000 2529000 2469000 863800 1773000 1010000 2553000
2022-02-11 18296000 100320000 2264000 3581000 1045000 1405000 3469000 12282000 2275000 10848000 565400 21977000 2137000 1027000 1713000 1233000 12341000 5323000 5440000 3207000 2568000 2530000 880500 1794000 1046000 2592000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-04 2704275 26326454 3109754 2296712 5943783 42080664 4353370 6520707 5106048 3331290 3594002 12257664 3616075 12051852 76354040 224115 1240496 768120 1903411 8601576 1270035 703436 131543 249407 5650603 2314691 219059 722458 389715 2957334 1646937 744987 1191476 1132570 1493415 960580 179914 2252336 1350540 1248068 751862 250029 2468806 229271 441821 273299 2122761 483475 665211 4839062 2605245 976776 654343 2688808 1406933 230240 1786513 6311648 670925 1572022 92932 1363526 1535404 458112 149842
2022-02-05 2738000 26522000 3116000 2334000 5958000 42346000 4355000 6552000 5144000 3380000 3602000 12411000 3618000 12151000 76454000 223700 1246000 769300 1916000 8625000 1269000 705300 131300 250200 5668000 2314000 220300 723200 391300 2954000 1643000 742800 1190000 1131000 1495000 962400 181300 2248000 1349000 1257000 752400 250700 2462000 230800 440900 273000 2128000 481400 665200 4848000 2612000 977000 653100 2698000 1405000 230000 1789000 6343000 669500 1570000 93350 1360000 1530000 461500 149700
2022-02-06 2785000 26636000 3126000 2363000 5972000 42600000 4357000 6579000 5169000 3438000 3618000 12544000 3621000 12229000 76891000 223900 1254000 772600 1932000 8768000 1272000 706500 131500 250800 5670000 2315000 221700 723800 391600 2959000 1644000 744400 1190000 1133000 1500000 964400 181300 2252000 1349000 1261000 752600 251000 2463000 231800 441600 273300 2131000 481600 667400 4859000 2624000 978000 653700 2705000 1406000 230300 1797000 6378000 670200 1572000 94210 1360000 1531000 464900 149800
2022-02-07 2821000 26740000 3148000 2392000 5985000 42806000 4359000 6606000 5182000 3464000 3632000 12673000 3622000 12315000 77495000 227400 1260000 778200 1947000 8849000 1290000 711900 131900 251200 5670000 2336000 223000 726600 393400 2981000 1660000 752000 1207000 1140000 1510000 965800 181300 2273000 1359000 1266000 758900 253700 2504000 232000 447400 276900 2134000 489000 680500 4866000 2632000 979000 664900 2710000 1407000 231300 1811000 6413000 675600 1596000 94790 1398000 1545000 466700 151400
2022-02-08 2850000 26913000 3162000 2416000 5997000 43044000 4361000 6633000 5219000 3495000 3644000 12798000 3625000 12405000 77939000 227400 1269000 782400 1960000 8907000 1296000 713800 132600 251500 5671000 2344000 224100 730900 396200 2999000 1662000 752500 1222000 1147000 1519000 967200 182500 2273000 1379000 1274000 766800 255600 2523000 234100 449100 278300 2136000 492800 682100 4873000 2639000 980000 673100 2715000 1432000 233100 1824000 6449000 680000 1602000 95400 1406000 1552000 468400 152800
2022-02-09 2877000 27125000 3174000 2444000 6010000 43240000 4362000 6661000 5241000 3534000 3655000 12927000 3628000 12494000 78519000 232600 1275000 788800 1972000 8988000 1304000 715700 133900 252000 5690000 2358000 225200 753400 399100 3016000 1674000 768300 1234000 1152000 1528000 968500 183700 2313000 1393000 1286000 773900 257700 2539000 236500 453500 279600 2140000 497200 692200 4879000 2646000 1037000 680400 2722000 1452000 235200 1843000 6483000 684900 1610000 96370 1434000 1565000 472100 154200
2022-02-10 2902000 27367000 3196000 2476000 6023000 43412000 4365000 6686000 5279000 3592000 3667000 13061000 3631000 12587000 79014000 233300 1280000 795100 1985000 9065000 1313000 718600 134100 253100 5694000 2372000 226400 755700 402600 3028000 1685000 769600 1247000 1158000 1536000 970500 184900 2315000 1409000 1297000 780800 259700 2563000 238800 458300 281200 2143000 502400 697800 4884000 2653000 1043000 688500 2732000 1461000 237400 1868000 6515000 688900 1622000 96890 1441000 1571000 477100 155800
2022-02-11 2927000 27609000 3214000 2509000 6036000 43680000 4367000 6717000 5363000 3631000 3681000 13196000 3634000 12682000 79497000 239500 1290000 799500 1997000 9102000 1324000 720900 134400 254000 5865000 2384000 227600 757700 406500 3051000 1699000 788300 1264000 1169000 1540000 973100 186200 2349000 1425000 1307000 787100 262800 2592000 241200 462900 283800 2147000 508500 702800 4890000 2660000 1045000 697200 2742000 1478000 239100 1879000 6551000 694500 1634000 97460 1472000 1585000 481900 157500

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed