COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-08


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-02-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-02-022022-02-052022-01-312022-02-032022-02-052022-02-052022-02-03 --2022-01-102022-01-312022-01-232022-01-082022-01-25 --2022-01-112022-01-12 --2022-02-022022-02-03 --2022-02-05 -- -- -- --
Peak daily increment 709937 1204231 36133 46321 8949 21813 39241 191860 141469 8888 333979 34359 8456 24031 179811 51322 54035 39219
Days since peak 8 6 3 8 5 3 3 5 29 8 16 31 14 28 27 6 5 3
Last total 17932803 95711181 2111314 3363890 1011588 1326760 3273375 11579518 2087689 10439302 542262 20538622 2090383 990595 1657615 1224862 11765767 5350048 5217106 2963747 2455048 2354455 811174 1743941 937321 2460036
Last daily increment 66171 1556874 27087 19057 8140 15999 29677 380632 49798 43831 7472 234960 23687 5545 7053 3780 102429 380388 31349 30757 36269 66670 11162 25572 26109 26771
Last week 417604 6045388 190432 134261 39328 111933 172913 1104526 244753 313954 41110 1159976 105839 36040 75098 31706 530022 744800 235785 218364 162703 131340 65194 126653 109736 165565
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-292021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-11-242021-08-182021-07-26 --2021-08-042021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222021-08-202021-08-212021-07-152021-11-302021-07-202021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-252021-09-012021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 18753 4795 326 18452 58324 1044 26574 21468 893 178 10225 1836 6503 10958 23866 3219 15615 1245 3272 11559 1515 5638
Low between peaks 1378 5917 1340 94 4084 28461 1518 3020 385 67 119 2498 11029 585 534

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-02-08

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-12 --2022-01-082022-02-052022-01-152022-01-142022-01-06 --2022-01-232022-01-212022-01-15 --2021-12-12 --2022-01-09 --2022-01-252022-01-112022-01-172022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-112022-01-152022-01-102022-01-19 --2022-01-192022-01-092022-01-102022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-01-092021-12-282022-02-032022-01-192022-01-242022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-252022-01-102022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-02-032022-01-102022-01-092022-01-182022-01-192022-02-022022-01-132022-01-182022-01-10 --2022-01-182022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 106165 41481 40058 30183 395632 630 41339 43911 32854 20848 794260 54240 8189 44478 128764 24224 11079 3465 3064 140641 45524 4244 2686 34585 14497 12118 11806 13426 21719 64096 1061 20818 11799 12287 7895 2086 56167 2043 4021 7585 31078 9457 14611 83161 32336 20468 8652 28030 18107 4616 84754 59596 12687 20037 19386 51813 5238 1517
Days since peak 27 31 3 24 25 33 16 18 24 58 30 14 28 22 30 29 29 43 28 24 29 20 20 30 29 25 21 25 30 42 5 20 15 35 36 15 21 14 29 21 33 21 20 36 24 5 29 30 21 20 6 26 21 29 21 22 36 21
Last total 2811390 26793497 3148406 2431845 5985516 42410976 4580093 6657842 5167110 3384546 3619633 12946888 3626014 12446111 77051506 227173 1250383 773438 1926238 8694138 1279754 706901 132257 250766 5650943 2330660 222504 722458 395366 2977135 1655125 748927 1204696 1141250 1501930 964832 182399 2263324 1365855 1257922 770522 253204 2497390 231841 444726 276506 2130623 489458 669748 4859982 2617104 976776 665486 2703775 1423919 231379 1786513 6380274 675771 1588937 93666 1379612 1545059 466125 151159
Last daily increment 31510 177483 9023 26173 9730 71365 37492 38757 6343 21057 3246 164097 824 111096 198738 0 4507 2630 3789 37533 2879 1336 87 202 0 4231 521 0 2314 5813 3144 5 5429 2288 1825 737 1391 0 9108 3121 2065 1284 4387 973 1248 452 1936 1396 1706 4245 4385 0 3236 -4116 2380 545 0 14907 918 4689 177 0 2308 1495 437
Last week 166630 972752 66790 210569 68691 607658 192807 211438 181421 98395 42335 1010824 13205 612946 1319979 6884 21083 10689 39698 163509 18903 7175 1164 2744 131698 32331 6092 0 10575 38250 19114 9287 28233 19563 17501 7917 5301 22796 25836 16831 32915 8649 55984 5099 5470 5898 14815 11076 8580 38788 21600 0 21513 29304 29268 2441 92519 118758 9147 30554 1445 27652 18972 14215 2777
Previous peak date --2021-06-16 --2021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122021-08-112021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-09-072021-09-232021-09-032021-08-302021-08-2911-122021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-09-252021-06-062021-07-102021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-13 --2021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-11-292021-08-30 --2021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 72652 2476 29569 90761 47188 38196 18310 3719 20602 39290 19200 163889 1313 5166 2236 3904 15449 655 256 466 40729 8907 1001 4359 1290 4099 5243 1581 4325 5921 190 1247 58 369 242 2608 3631 919 6935 601 31638 2331 1142 6892 4945 2269 521 5397 461 14956 18451 1194 3686 1273 3420 1847 555
Low between peaks 968 1351 1876 143 617 60 -394 96 70807 379 400 1655 4326 310 30 219 -2312 738 56 236 1989 1566 742 1151 -8 43 -820 11 169 64 851 83 88 1585 251 292 652 408 3348 -148 396 128 -39 175 907 3045 146 1215 772 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-09 to 2022-02-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-08 17932803 95711181 2111314 3363890 1011588 1326760 3273375 11579518 2087689 10439302 542262 20538622 2090383 990595 1657615 1224862 11765767 5350048 5217106 2963747 2455048 2354455 811174 1743941 937321 2460036
2022-02-09 18016000 97269000 2145000 3463000 1025000 1343000 3302000 11589000 2162000 10681000 545400 21150000 2109000 1005000 1678000 1227000 11923000 5350000 5270000 3050000 2537000 2424000 823400 1780000 984000 2510000
2022-02-10 18101000 98616000 2177000 3529000 1034000 1359000 3322000 11704000 2222000 10850000 551200 21583000 2125000 1015000 1693000 1229000 12028000 5508000 5315000 3110000 2590000 2473000 835400 1805000 1014000 2549000
2022-02-11 18170000 99814000 2209000 3573000 1043000 1376000 3346000 11847000 2281000 10974000 557500 21908000 2142000 1024000 1709000 1231000 12125000 5661000 5357000 3164000 2642000 2512000 847400 1827000 1044000 2583000
2022-02-12 18225000 100567000 2239000 3574000 1048000 1392000 3372000 11949000 2343000 10974000 558700 22187000 2159000 1032000 1709000 1233000 12236000 5801000 5401000 3208000 2672000 2512000 859300 1851000 1065000 2583000
2022-02-13 18272000 101222000 2264000 3576000 1049000 1406000 3399000 12051000 2388000 10974000 559500 22399000 2176000 1038000 1709000 1235000 12363000 5942000 5437000 3240000 2712000 2512000 871200 1874000 1075000 2583000
2022-02-14 18329000 101975000 2288000 3643000 1057000 1418000 3426000 12139000 2437000 11077000 575200 22412000 2193000 1038000 1741000 1238000 12376000 6084000 5459000 3256000 2745000 2512000 883200 1883000 1093000 2654000
2022-02-15 18403000 103422000 2312000 3666000 1066000 1433000 3454000 12416000 2487000 11130000 581100 22733000 2210000 1044000 1747000 1240000 12474000 6228000 5489000 3289000 2775000 2597000 895300 1912000 1120000 2680000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-09 to 2022-02-15

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-08 2811390 26793497 3148406 2431845 5985516 42410976 4580093 6657842 5167110 3384546 3619633 12946888 3626014 12446111 77051506 227173 1250383 773438 1926238 8694138 1279754 706901 132257 250766 5650943 2330660 222504 395366 2977135 1655125 748927 1204696 1141250 1501930 964832 182399 2263324 1365855 1257922 770522 253204 2497390 231841 444726 276506 2130623 489458 669748 4859982 2617104 665486 2703775 1423919 231379 1786513 6380274 675771 1588937 93666 1379612 1545059 466125 151159
2022-02-09 2821000 26958000 3161000 2462000 6000000 42573000 4612000 6691000 5232000 3412000 3630000 13044000 3629000 12543000 77098000 233900 1257000 774700 1934000 8741000 1297000 713900 133700 251900 5705000 2361000 223500 399500 3022000 1682000 770800 1230000 1153000 1528000 966700 183600 2274000 1394000 1263000 776800 256300 2558000 235700 453000 283000 2137000 501700 685300 4866000 2619000 680400 2719000 1464000 233700 1787000 6426000 693200 1611000 94050 1437000 1574000 467100 154100
2022-02-10 2845000 27174000 3193000 2495000 6024000 43122000 4639000 6723000 5278000 3494000 3654000 13174000 3633000 12644000 77172000 234300 1260000 780700 1964000 8927000 1311000 719800 134600 252900 5705000 2382000 226200 403000 3045000 1701000 775900 1247000 1160000 1547000 970400 184900 2278000 1410000 1282000 783800 258300 2604000 238500 458100 287100 2142000 510500 690700 4878000 2633000 690800 2731000 1477000 235400 1977000 6457000 704000 1626000 95830 1448000 1589000 469600 155900
2022-02-11 2862000 27369000 3216000 2531000 6043000 43488000 4669000 6757000 5355000 3549000 3672000 13315000 3637000 12745000 77336000 239300 1276000 784300 1984000 9046000 1319000 723600 135400 253300 5895000 2398000 228100 406300 3072000 1715000 788400 1259000 1168000 1559000 973100 186200 2297000 1420000 1294000 791000 262000 2638000 240400 461500 290600 2145000 516900 693600 4888000 2641000 698400 2741000 1489000 236500 1977000 6486000 711000 1636000 96950 1467000 1598000 471400 157100
2022-02-12 2873000 27521000 3234000 2563000 6059000 43761000 4699000 6785000 5387000 3592000 3687000 13456000 3640000 12837000 77336000 239500 1279000 786600 1998000 9130000 1320000 723900 135400 253700 5895000 2400000 229700 407800 3072000 1715000 789000 1260000 1168000 1565000 975500 187200 2298000 1422000 1303000 791000 262000 2646000 241800 462300 291700 2150000 517600 693900 4895000 2646000 699000 2752000 1490000 237000 1977000 6500000 712800 1639000 97710 1467000 1598000 472800 157300
2022-02-13 2883000 27599000 3250000 2599000 6075000 44012000 4730000 6815000 5406000 3631000 3700000 13597000 3643000 12921000 77403000 239500 1283000 788500 2011000 9205000 1324000 725200 136100 254000 5895000 2403000 231100 407900 3074000 1716000 790000 1261000 1171000 1574000 977700 187200 2302000 1422000 1311000 791000 262000 2652000 242600 463100 292700 2151000 519200 694000 4901000 2650000 699600 2758000 1491000 237000 1977000 6536000 717000 1640000 98390 1467000 1598000 474100 157500
2022-02-14 2891000 27664000 3264000 2631000 6090000 44210000 4754000 6850000 5412000 3663000 3712000 13740000 3645000 13013000 77531000 242400 1283000 789900 2022000 9262000 1331000 726600 136600 254000 5895000 2416000 232300 409700 3090000 1725000 792800 1271000 1175000 1582000 979800 187200 2308000 1429000 1317000 804100 264000 2687000 242600 465400 296400 2151000 526400 698400 4907000 2652000 707900 2764000 1495000 237600 1977000 6551000 722500 1653000 98880 1487000 1598000 475300 158500
2022-02-15 2898000 27827000 3276000 2656000 6104000 44391000 4786000 6884000 5428000 3692000 3723000 13891000 3648000 13117000 77786000 242400 1293000 791000 2031000 9313000 1334000 728700 137100 254000 5895000 2422000 233400 412200 3102000 1730000 792800 1280000 1178000 1586000 981700 188400 2316000 1442000 1322000 807000 265400 2697000 243800 467100 296500 2152000 527700 698400 4912000 2653000 713100 2764000 1506000 238500 1977000 6571000 724200 1658000 99300 1489000 1599000 476300 159300

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-09 to 2022-02-15

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-08 17932803 95711181 2111314 3363890 1011588 1326760 3273375 11579518 2087689 10439302 542262 20538622 2090383 990595 1657615 1224862 11765767 5350048 5217106 2963747 2455048 2354455 811174 1743941 937321 2460036
2022-02-09 17994000 97037000 2144000 3405000 1020000 1348000 3316000 11756000 2141000 10534000 548100 20768000 2109000 1000000 1676000 1230000 11863000 5477000 5266000 3010000 2498000 2380000 829400 1771000 965000 2500000
2022-02-10 18071000 98327000 2179000 3456000 1028000 1370000 3355000 11918000 2186000 10656000 552500 21065000 2125000 1008000 1693000 1232000 11969000 5577000 5319000 3064000 2536000 2417000 844400 1796000 992000 2538000
2022-02-11 18151000 99539000 2213000 3494000 1037000 1393000 3389000 12088000 2230000 10764000 557800 21321000 2142000 1016000 1708000 1235000 12066000 5675000 5367000 3117000 2575000 2454000 856800 1818000 1016000 2574000
2022-02-12 18227000 100320000 2245000 3494000 1042000 1413000 3419000 12184000 2273000 10764000 560900 21558000 2158000 1025000 1710000 1238000 12160000 5745000 5414000 3163000 2598000 2454000 869200 1842000 1033000 2574000
2022-02-13 18290000 101082000 2276000 3506000 1044000 1431000 3451000 12259000 2312000 10764000 563900 21804000 2172000 1030000 1710000 1241000 12248000 5843000 5457000 3207000 2623000 2460000 882400 1864000 1044000 2578000
2022-02-14 18420000 102084000 2305000 3599000 1055000 1450000 3473000 12363000 2354000 10932000 573700 21830000 2190000 1032000 1741000 1244000 12293000 5965000 5492000 3239000 2650000 2461000 891000 1876000 1068000 2660000
2022-02-15 18514000 103644000 2336000 3639000 1067000 1469000 3504000 12564000 2399000 11018000 576600 22239000 2210000 1039000 1751000 1247000 12397000 6086000 5532000 3296000 2687000 2570000 903400 1904000 1100000 2692000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-09 to 2022-02-15

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-08 2811390 26793497 3148406 2431845 5985516 42410976 4580093 6657842 5167110 3384546 3619633 12946888 3626014 12446111 77051506 227173 1250383 773438 1926238 8694138 1279754 706901 132257 250766 5650943 2330660 222504 395366 2977135 1655125 748927 1204696 1141250 1501930 964832 182399 2263324 1365855 1257922 770522 253204 2497390 231841 444726 276506 2130623 489458 669748 4859982 2617104 665486 2703775 1423919 231379 1786513 6380274 675771 1588937 93666 1379612 1545059 466125 151159
2022-02-09 2840000 26973000 3161000 2471000 5996000 42548000 4607000 6695000 5172000 3413000 3624000 13104000 3629000 12556000 77231000 232600 1257000 777100 1935000 8733000 1282000 707000 132500 251200 5662000 2336000 223400 397900 2979000 1658000 763200 1209000 1144000 1504000 965900 183600 2295000 1375000 1264000 775400 254800 2500000 233200 447200 277300 2133000 490800 674500 4865000 2624000 668500 2708000 1435000 232400 1801000 6397000 676800 1592000 94410 1395000 1550000 468500 151900
2022-02-10 2861000 27214000 3179000 2506000 6009000 42782000 4629000 6722000 5208000 3460000 3633000 13256000 3633000 12657000 77441000 233000 1264000 781900 1950000 8817000 1291000 710000 132800 251900 5685000 2350000 224600 400800 2990000 1670000 766300 1220000 1151000 1512000 968200 184800 2300000 1386000 1273000 781700 256400 2523000 235200 450800 279200 2134000 495500 678700 4871000 2632000 675600 2715000 1442000 233900 1876000 6424000 682200 1603000 95280 1399000 1557000 472500 153100
2022-02-11 2878000 27422000 3193000 2543000 6022000 42980000 4654000 6752000 5285000 3498000 3641000 13411000 3634000 12760000 77784000 237700 1274000 785000 1962000 8865000 1297000 711800 133200 252400 5883000 2361000 225600 403700 3010000 1679000 778600 1229000 1161000 1518000 970200 186100 2321000 1394000 1279000 788300 260000 2542000 236700 453300 281300 2136000 499000 681100 4876000 2640000 681600 2721000 1452000 234900 1881000 6453000 686000 1611000 95940 1413000 1564000 475900 154000
2022-02-12 2892000 27578000 3203000 2577000 6034000 43148000 4680000 6791000 5316000 3530000 3649000 13568000 3638000 12855000 77907000 237900 1280000 787300 1972000 8902000 1297000 712200 133300 252800 5906000 2361000 226800 405000 3010000 1679000 779300 1229000 1162000 1520000 972000 187100 2322000 1394000 1285000 788400 260000 2542000 237800 453800 281400 2138000 499100 681500 4881000 2646000 681700 2728000 1452000 235100 1882000 6474000 686200 1612000 96440 1413000 1564000 479300 154000
2022-02-13 2904000 27679000 3212000 2612000 6045000 43426000 4707000 6818000 5339000 3561000 3657000 13725000 3640000 12939000 77969000 238600 1286000 789100 1982000 8959000 1302000 715500 133500 253400 5917000 2367000 227800 405700 3021000 1685000 785000 1233000 1165000 1526000 973400 187300 2333000 1397000 1289000 789600 260100 2551000 239200 454900 282300 2140000 501300 685500 4886000 2651000 684500 2732000 1458000 235600 1884000 6495000 690900 1617000 96870 1419000 1568000 482500 154400
2022-02-14 2917000 27747000 3227000 2647000 6055000 43594000 4731000 6851000 5357000 3590000 3666000 13884000 3641000 13028000 78279000 242400 1295000 790900 1992000 9008000 1315000 720900 134100 253900 5935000 2389000 228700 407900 3048000 1704000 794300 1247000 1173000 1537000 974700 187300 2355000 1407000 1294000 799600 262600 2593000 239400 459800 285800 2141000 509100 696500 4890000 2655000 695300 2736000 1463000 236600 1885000 6515000 699100 1638000 97320 1450000 1583000 484700 155900
2022-02-15 2929000 27913000 3238000 2672000 6065000 43769000 4759000 6872000 5395000 3618000 3671000 14044000 3644000 13132000 78557000 242600 1303000 793000 2001000 9046000 1321000 723600 135000 254100 5937000 2401000 229400 410900 3070000 1714000 796300 1261000 1183000 1547000 975900 188600 2360000 1425000 1300000 805200 264600 2616000 241600 462300 287200 2142000 513200 699900 4894000 2659000 704000 2739000 1487000 238300 1885000 6541000 705600 1647000 97620 1462000 1590000 486500 157200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed