COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-20


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-02-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-01-23 --2022-01-232022-01-212022-02-032022-01-272022-02-092022-02-032022-01-172022-01-112022-01-202022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-01-032022-01-122022-02-082022-01-282022-01-242022-02-012022-01-242022-01-29 --2022-02-082022-01-23
Peak daily increment 705791 1206884 50456 8819 18493 33699 195195 44713 139093 8391 362202 34256 8763 15668 23008 181770 321475 46118 53177 28207 36917 13757 19911 36359
Days since peak 20 28 28 30 17 24 11 17 34 40 31 47 33 27 48 39 12 23 27 19 27 22 12 28
Last total 18605752 103940604 2473099 3494223 1067648 1499168 3506076 13667353 2578051 10809222 605046 21708045 2298926 1041212 1746424 1265124 12469975 6082555 5513075 3187389 2663630 2422856 878036 2000643 1136409 2664194
Last daily increment 25536 359584 48357 0 1235 9799 8256 61908 25690 0 0 59003 9596 2055 0 0 42202 36437 12347 9360 7697 0 2289 14784 7646 0
Last week 257723 3730661 173870 46684 24694 80682 102607 1038510 221178 136316 22663 521955 104473 22845 29352 9553 335524 293072 124168 93666 89246 25526 26620 130524 86598 77470
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-11-242021-08-182021-07-26 --2021-08-052021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222021-08-202021-08-212021-07-152021-11-302021-07-202021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-252021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 17432 4795 326 18453 58323 991 26575 22047 893 178 10224 1836 6504 9508 23866 3219 14737 1245 3272 11559 1417 5638
Low between peaks 5917 1340 94 4084 28461 327 1518 3020 385 67 1865 119 2498 1257 11029 585 301 534 1054 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-02-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-122022-01-282021-12-312022-02-142022-01-152022-01-21 --2022-02-082022-01-192022-01-202022-01-162022-02-162021-12-122022-02-072022-01-132022-01-192022-01-252022-01-132022-01-172022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-152022-01-102022-01-192022-01-262022-01-252022-01-182022-01-202022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-01-102021-12-282022-02-152022-01-192022-01-232022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-192022-01-172022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-01-112022-01-182022-01-192022-02-022022-01-212022-01-182022-01-102021-11-292022-01-182022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 109709 175007 40135 36079 30553 305758 35106 45555 51547 33452 200043 20848 99112 786645 2944 55139 8269 44245 124905 24570 10476 3465 3036 118673 46066 4506 8732 2614 33237 16064 13927 12654 15199 21044 64096 6645 33014 12888 12288 7895 2122 60773 2304 4369 7851 30365 10458 16382 83162 33258 17667 10258 27643 20178 5057 28480 62106 13913 20180 1273 22902 55374 5238 1639
Days since peak 39 23 51 6 36 30 12 32 31 35 4 70 13 38 32 26 38 34 42 41 41 55 38 36 41 32 25 26 33 31 37 33 37 41 54 5 32 28 47 48 27 33 32 34 33 45 33 32 48 36 32 33 40 33 32 18 30 33 41 83 33 34 48 33
Last total 3048857 28218180 3238624 2851382 6047042 42838524 4966046 6942452 5413425 3496009 3652203 15147762 3658547 13504485 78479134 235131 1273092 789039 1967702 8888375 1301503 716560 133697 254183 5815744 2362567 228735 743209 414513 3013578 1674269 762868 1255885 1156196 1521141 998136 218026 2299347 1398041 1282325 785528 261722 2559097 236902 448717 285441 2152155 500843 677345 4907852 2644828 1008987 685953 2744145 1449637 234961 1888962 6503870 685153 1622685 95489 1406275 1564381 481818 154082
Last daily increment 18219 40813 3163 32136 3381 16051 -182975 16967 5714 5021 1455 168399 1456 70355 22053 0 484 730 4782 2630 0 0 0 150 0 0 310 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1089 4466 0 0 0 0 0 0 118 0 0 0 0 0 2137 899 0 0 1393 0 0 0 1608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 103361 665913 35637 198669 23785 145581 121767 107231 120719 46297 12261 1045026 15642 519532 558000 1988 9296 6556 14534 56002 8517 4902 402 1344 42373 11230 2225 7858 9884 11936 5865 12883 18336 5259 7465 27404 30353 11594 13184 6993 4092 3870 19533 1904 1583 5373 9176 3659 2159 19680 11180 11345 6712 17349 7091 1953 33385 50543 2997 11959 768 -1250 6638 4861 987
Previous peak date --2021-09-18 --2021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-162021-08-122021-08-112021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-09-072021-09-232021-09-032021-08-302021-08-292021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-09-252021-06-062021-07-102021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-13 --2021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-06-082021-09-07 --2021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 92851 2476 29569 90762 47129 38195 18310 3718 20603 39289 19200 163861 1313 5166 2236 3904 15416 655 256 466 40729 8907 1001 2876 1290 4099 5243 1581 4325 5921 190 1247 58 369 242 2608 3631 919 6935 601 31639 2331 1142 6892 4761 2270 521 5397 461 14955 18451 1194 3686 10 3422 1847 555
Low between peaks 2340 968 1351 4447 1388 617 60 -394 16443 96 70795 44 379 400 1655 2893 310 30 219 -2312 738 56 -448 236 1989 1566 742 1151 -8 43 -820 11 169 64 851 83 88 1585 251 292 652 408 3348 -7 396 128 -39 175 907 3045 146 1215 2 1060 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-20 18605752 103940604 2473099 3494223 1067648 1499168 3506076 13667353 2578051 10809222 605046 21708045 2298926 1041212 1746424 1265124 12469975 6082555 5513075 3187389 2663630 2422856 878036 2000643 1136409 2664194
2022-02-21 18635000 104630000 2509000 3555000 1072000 1513000 3526000 13860000 2629000 10925000 623000 21819000 2315000 1051000 1784000 1269000 12597000 6119000 5542000 3220000 2682000 2472000 885200 2027000 1168000 2735000
2022-02-22 18682000 106385000 2551000 3589000 1076000 1539000 3585000 14005000 2678000 10966000 627500 22242000 2336000 1060000 1794000 1278000 12726000 6193000 5567000 3252000 2730000 2530000 900100 2049000 1196000 2769000
2022-02-23 18720000 107634000 2588000 3613000 1078000 1559000 3625000 14332000 2725000 11000000 632200 22513000 2355000 1069000 1806000 1284000 12820000 6251000 5595000 3283000 2765000 2553000 911200 2075000 1221000 2797000
2022-02-24 18752000 108624000 2623000 3632000 1081000 1577000 3656000 14541000 2767000 11030000 640600 22704000 2372000 1074000 1817000 1290000 12912000 6302000 5630000 3308000 2792000 2569000 920300 2096000 1244000 2810000
2022-02-25 18784000 109553000 2658000 3644000 1084000 1594000 3685000 14706000 2804000 11050000 646100 22876000 2390000 1077000 1828000 1294000 12983000 6351000 5653000 3333000 2817000 2580000 928900 2112000 1267000 2834000
2022-02-26 18814000 110342000 2692000 3644000 1084000 1609000 3708000 14807000 2836000 11050000 646100 23006000 2406000 1080000 1828000 1299000 13045000 6396000 5668000 3348000 2839000 2580000 936500 2129000 1282000 2834000
2022-02-27 18843000 111083000 2726000 3644000 1084000 1623000 3729000 14858000 2862000 11050000 646100 23122000 2422000 1084000 1828000 1302000 13093000 6440000 5682000 3362000 2858000 2580000 943800 2143000 1288000 2834000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-20 3048857 28218180 3238624 2851382 6047042 42838524 4966046 6942452 5413425 3496009 3652203 15147762 3658547 13504485 78479134 235131 1273092 789039 1967702 8888375 1301503 716560 133697 254183 5815744 2362567 228735 743209 414513 3013578 1674269 762868 1255885 1156196 1521141 998136 218026 2299347 1398041 1282325 785528 261722 2559097 236902 448717 285441 2152155 500843 677345 4907852 2644828 1008987 685953 2744145 1449637 234961 1888962 6503870 685153 1622685 95489 1564381 481818 154082
2022-02-21 3069000 28329000 3246000 2884000 6052000 42875000 5111000 6997000 5448000 3503000 3655000 15328000 3661000 13617000 78986000 239400 1276000 791100 1970000 8950000 1304000 716800 134300 255000 5816000 2369000 229200 750400 416600 3032000 1677000 765700 1269000 1161000 1525000 1000000 221800 2315000 1411000 1292000 798500 264400 2588000 239000 451100 286900 2157000 505100 682000 4912000 2647000 1021000 695400 2748000 1468000 235800 1916000 6521000 689600 1632000 95750 1571000 484000 155100
2022-02-22 3104000 28594000 3268000 2914000 6060000 42968000 5141000 7032000 5476000 3539000 3660000 15522000 3665000 13724000 79331000 240500 1287000 793300 1976000 8984000 1308000 718300 134600 255500 5818000 2375000 230700 750800 418900 3039000 1682000 772100 1276000 1164000 1527000 1001000 225100 2321000 1423000 1297000 803400 266000 2599000 240900 453100 289100 2160000 506500 684800 4924000 2655000 1027000 700200 2757000 1477000 236700 1919000 6537000 691000 1637000 96310 1575000 485100 155600
2022-02-23 3131000 28788000 3283000 2945000 6066000 43035000 5170000 7057000 5511000 3561000 3665000 15709000 3668000 13824000 79552000 242200 1294000 794200 1980000 9009000 1310000 719900 134900 255900 5818000 2380000 231700 762300 421300 3046000 1684000 775700 1282000 1165000 1529000 1002000 228600 2333000 1427000 1302000 806400 267200 2612000 242100 454500 290300 2163000 507800 686200 4932000 2661000 1052000 703700 2763000 1485000 237200 1961000 6546000 692700 1640000 96710 1578000 486400 156100
2022-02-24 3154000 28945000 3294000 2976000 6072000 43088000 5185000 7083000 5533000 3575000 3668000 15891000 3670000 13920000 79710000 242300 1299000 794200 1983000 9025000 1313000 720400 135000 256400 5823000 2384000 232400 762300 423500 3046000 1688000 775800 1288000 1167000 1531000 1004000 231700 2334000 1431000 1306000 808400 268300 2617000 243200 455300 291100 2166000 509100 687000 4939000 2665000 1052000 706400 2769000 1494000 237600 1971000 6563000 693700 1642000 97030 1579000 487800 156400
2022-02-25 3175000 29092000 3304000 3008000 6077000 43137000 5200000 7112000 5557000 3588000 3671000 16073000 3673000 14000000 79884000 243900 1303000 795700 1986000 9033000 1316000 721300 135300 256800 5943000 2391000 233100 762300 425500 3048000 1692000 776700 1292000 1169000 1534000 1005000 234900 2342000 1436000 1309000 811600 269900 2625000 244200 456200 292700 2169000 510400 688100 4945000 2669000 1053000 708700 2773000 1496000 238500 1972000 6576000 694800 1645000 97340 1581000 489700 156700
2022-02-26 3195000 29220000 3313000 3041000 6082000 43179000 5221000 7122000 5595000 3597000 3674000 16254000 3675000 14077000 79928000 243900 1307000 795700 1989000 9033000 1316000 721300 135300 257000 5943000 2391000 233700 762300 426600 3048000 1692000 776700 1292000 1169000 1534000 1007000 238500 2342000 1436000 1310000 811600 269900 2625000 244700 456200 292700 2170000 510400 688100 4951000 2672000 1053000 708700 2777000 1498000 238500 1972000 6581000 694800 1645000 97620 1581000 490100 156700
2022-02-27 3214000 29340000 3320000 3073000 6087000 43219000 5221000 7140000 5599000 3604000 3677000 16435000 3677000 14148000 79964000 243900 1310000 795800 1991000 9033000 1317000 721300 135300 257200 5982000 2391000 234200 762300 426600 3050000 1692000 776700 1292000 1169000 1534000 1008000 241100 2342000 1436000 1310000 811600 269900 2628000 244800 456500 292700 2170000 510400 688100 4955000 2674000 1053000 708700 2781000 1498000 238500 1972000 6584000 694800 1645000 97880 1583000 490600 156700

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-20 18605752 103940604 2473099 3494223 1067648 1499168 3506076 13667353 2578051 10809222 605046 21708045 2298926 1041212 1746424 1265124 12469975 6082555 5513075 3187389 2663630 2422856 878036 2000643 1136409 2664194
2022-02-21 18639000 104499000 2497000 3529000 1073000 1508000 3516000 13807000 2603000 10910000 618600 21808000 2316000 1042000 1775000 1269000 12489000 6151000 5518000 3192000 2672000 2435000 881100 2012000 1149000 2727000
2022-02-22 18684000 105395000 2521000 3559000 1080000 1521000 3554000 13959000 2647000 10965000 623300 21952000 2335000 1046000 1783000 1274000 12555000 6239000 5532000 3205000 2701000 2486000 886800 2034000 1169000 2753000
2022-02-23 18728000 106311000 2555000 3585000 1085000 1538000 3573000 14299000 2692000 11020000 628500 22073000 2353000 1053000 1796000 1278000 12600000 6315000 5559000 3220000 2724000 2505000 891800 2061000 1188000 2782000
2022-02-24 18769000 107102000 2585000 3602000 1090000 1554000 3594000 14520000 2734000 11060000 637200 22187000 2370000 1058000 1807000 1283000 12646000 6385000 5587000 3235000 2744000 2518000 897100 2086000 1206000 2793000
2022-02-25 18829000 107985000 2615000 3615000 1096000 1570000 3621000 14717000 2774000 11097000 644300 22279000 2388000 1061000 1820000 1288000 12715000 6452000 5610000 3252000 2768000 2536000 901500 2104000 1225000 2821000
2022-02-26 18871000 108565000 2639000 3619000 1099000 1587000 3639000 14842000 2814000 11112000 645700 22365000 2404000 1066000 1823000 1291000 12779000 6510000 5628000 3264000 2791000 2546000 905600 2127000 1238000 2831000
2022-02-27 18913000 109037000 2666000 3640000 1100000 1598000 3650000 14919000 2850000 11138000 646800 22436000 2418000 1069000 1828000 1294000 12824000 6591000 5640000 3273000 2802000 2564000 908700 2148000 1246000 2841000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-20 3048857 28218180 3238624 2851382 6047042 42838524 4966046 6942452 5413425 3496009 3652203 15147762 3658547 13504485 78479134 235131 1273092 789039 1967702 8888375 1301503 716560 133697 254183 5815744 2362567 228735 743209 414513 3013578 1674269 762868 1255885 1156196 1521141 998136 218026 2299347 1398041 1282325 785528 261722 2559097 236902 448717 285441 2152155 500843 677345 4907852 2644828 1008987 685953 2744145 1449637 234961 1888962 6503870 685153 1622685 95489 1564381 481818 154082
2022-02-21 3067000 28261000 3248000 2883000 6049000 42862000 4983000 6965000 5418000 3505000 3654000 15311000 3660000 13590000 78633000 237900 1278000 789900 1970000 8897000 1306000 718000 134200 254400 5799000 2370000 229100 744100 416400 3031000 1680000 765200 1270000 1160000 1527000 999000 220900 2308000 1405000 1286000 794100 263600 2583000 237000 450400 286600 2153000 505400 680300 4911000 2647000 1009000 693000 2746000 1456000 235500 1889000 6508000 689000 1631000 95580 1570000 481700 154800
2022-02-22 3084000 28417000 3257000 2912000 6052000 42891000 5035000 6994000 5431000 3519000 3656000 15505000 3662000 13687000 78744000 239000 1283000 791700 1973000 8920000 1309000 719700 134400 254500 5810000 2377000 229600 747000 418800 3038000 1684000 773000 1276000 1163000 1530000 1001000 227500 2314000 1416000 1287000 797200 265200 2591000 237600 451800 288600 2155000 506900 682600 4915000 2650000 1012000 696600 2748000 1460000 236400 1892000 6515000 690600 1636000 95740 1574000 482500 155400
2022-02-23 3100000 28566000 3266000 2944000 6056000 42915000 5089000 7016000 5460000 3528000 3657000 15688000 3666000 13781000 78907000 240900 1286000 793100 1975000 8938000 1312000 721400 134700 254700 5824000 2382000 230000 759900 421000 3042000 1687000 776800 1281000 1165000 1532000 1006000 230900 2326000 1420000 1290000 799700 266400 2600000 238000 452900 289400 2157000 508300 684000 4918000 2653000 1030000 699600 2751000 1464000 236800 1934000 6522000 691700 1641000 95870 1578000 483800 156000
2022-02-24 3115000 28704000 3275000 2979000 6059000 42936000 5137000 7036000 5478000 3537000 3658000 15874000 3668000 13873000 79002000 241100 1289000 794300 1977000 8952000 1315000 722200 134800 255000 5836000 2387000 230400 760400 423000 3044000 1690000 777100 1287000 1168000 1534000 1007000 234700 2327000 1423000 1292000 801300 267400 2607000 238600 453600 290400 2159000 509900 684700 4922000 2655000 1034000 702200 2754000 1467000 237100 1944000 6532000 692900 1645000 96000 1580000 485100 156300
2022-02-25 3131000 28865000 3283000 3017000 6063000 42955000 5179000 7068000 5503000 3543000 3660000 16077000 3671000 13966000 79169000 243600 1293000 795500 1979000 8964000 1318000 723300 135000 255300 5900000 2394000 230700 761800 424800 3050000 1694000 779200 1291000 1170000 1537000 1008000 237700 2341000 1430000 1293000 805000 269200 2616000 239500 454700 291800 2161000 511500 686300 4925000 2657000 1038000 705100 2758000 1469000 238000 1952000 6542000 694300 1650000 96130 1583000 486400 156900
2022-02-26 3147000 29008000 3289000 3054000 6067000 42974000 5230000 7091000 5544000 3550000 3661000 16286000 3673000 14054000 79227000 244200 1296000 796100 1981000 8978000 1319000 723500 135000 255500 5928000 2394000 231000 762800 425900 3050000 1695000 779800 1292000 1171000 1538000 1010000 239700 2343000 1431000 1294000 806300 269500 2619000 240100 454900 291900 2162000 512100 686600 4928000 2659000 1043000 706200 2762000 1470000 238100 1959000 6548000 694800 1650000 96260 1584000 487900 157000
2022-02-27 3163000 29059000 3294000 3091000 6070000 42992000 5275000 7117000 5550000 3556000 3662000 16496000 3675000 14133000 79262000 245000 1298000 797300 1983000 8999000 1321000 723900 135100 255700 5951000 2397000 231400 763200 425900 3053000 1698000 781000 1293000 1173000 1539000 1011000 241000 2347000 1434000 1294000 808300 270000 2625000 240200 455600 292300 2163000 513100 687800 4931000 2660000 1047000 707900 2764000 1470000 238300 1965000 6550000 695900 1653000 96390 1587000 489000 157400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed