COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-02-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-01-25 --2022-01-242022-01-252022-02-022022-01-272022-02-092022-01-272022-01-172022-01-112022-01-222022-01-042022-01-242022-01-242022-01-032022-01-122022-02-082022-01-272022-01-272022-02-012022-01-242022-01-292022-02-122022-01-272022-01-24
Peak daily increment 729262 1265276 56983 9017 18549 35526 193434 44583 139094 8391 355831 34255 8806 17379 23008 181770 325319 47026 53800 28398 44430 14167 21914 19940 39314
Days since peak 24 30 31 30 22 28 15 28 38 44 33 51 31 31 52 43 16 28 28 23 31 26 12 28 31
Last total 18773164 106218346 2578962 3537675 1083425 1545999 3549479 14458827 2691663 10949997 637658 21933357 2369396 1049667 1774676 1287908 12651251 6153207 5620946 3231075 2708315 2437850 887224 2071372 1202017 2747563
Last daily increment 38481 556916 28591 8634 2854 11702 11257 206627 25209 35892 7931 66700 15819 2559 5512 3729 47493 0 18266 11636 10749 3067 2394 19112 15595 17526
Last week 226959 3042626 154220 43452 19617 71968 65547 967025 172606 140775 32612 360867 95371 14035 28252 22784 274153 140686 101535 67206 64701 14994 15273 106961 82813 83369
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-11-242021-08-182021-07-26 --2021-08-052021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222021-08-202021-08-212021-07-152021-11-302021-07-202021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 17432 4795 326 18453 58322 991 26576 22047 893 178 10224 1836 6504 9508 23866 3219 14737 1245 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 5917 1340 94 4084 28460 327 1518 3020 385 67 1865 119 2498 1257 11029 585 301 534 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-02-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-122022-01-262021-12-312022-02-182022-01-152022-01-22 --2022-02-082022-01-232022-01-192022-01-162022-02-182021-12-122022-02-072022-01-092022-01-242022-01-162022-01-132022-01-172022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-152022-01-102022-01-192022-01-262022-01-242022-01-102022-01-172022-01-142022-01-242022-01-142022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152022-01-192022-01-242022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-192022-01-172022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-01-112022-01-262022-01-19 --2022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102021-11-292022-01-242022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 109700 182174 40294 35491 30553 303530 33063 43558 47142 33452 190850 20848 98019 795703 2908 27264 8269 44245 124904 24571 10476 3465 3036 104766 46066 4415 8025 2944 32479 15102 13927 13520 15200 21044 13446 8594 32108 14248 12288 7895 2460 59693 2150 4369 7668 30365 10240 16077 83161 33258 17514 9943 27643 19986 5132 60466 13669 20180 1273 21031 55374 5238 1601
Days since peak 43 29 55 6 40 33 16 32 36 39 6 74 17 46 31 39 42 38 46 45 45 59 42 40 45 36 29 31 45 38 41 31 41 45 52 9 36 31 51 52 31 37 36 38 37 49 37 36 52 40 36 37 44 29 36 42 37 45 87 31 38 52 37
Last total 3150771 28589235 3267366 2953895 6056556 42894345 5408328 7011932 5473489 3506075 3657342 15697674 3667560 13841889 78798989 236925 1276580 791770 1973479 8940505 1309668 719170 134214 255287 5815744 2371794 229477 747652 421587 3024496 1679591 764957 1267696 1161034 1527791 999890 223823 2306610 1405215 1287964 788479 265177 2578419 237599 449646 288490 2157923 503759 679715 4917251 2649692 1015389 691337 2751629 1458075 235654 1909657 6527165 687500 1634851 96424 1411231 1569673 487446 154797
Last daily increment 26670 95899 5644 32764 2249 13166 57426 12957 18252 2183 1633 131249 2411 79708 65491 0 1225 508 1801 14489 1427 454 100 816 0 2131 278 0 2409 1941 963 0 0 830 1552 661 1126 0 1087 1266 541 900 3727 278 41 1114 0 620 1031 2654 1321 0 856 1862 1085 113 0 6355 439 2176 297 -220 871 1240 135
Last week 137509 516997 33363 170437 17393 91840 318691 98505 107084 24323 8417 895235 12736 488213 377381 1794 5125 4358 10559 59874 8165 2610 517 1481 0 9227 1404 4443 8215 10918 5322 2089 11811 4838 6650 3708 14260 7263 7174 5874 2951 3455 19322 1046 929 3049 5768 2916 2370 14014 7362 6402 5384 13154 8438 693 20695 32932 2347 12166 935 3824 5292 5628 715
Previous peak date --2021-09-18 --2021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122021-08-112021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-09-072021-09-232021-08-062021-08-302021-08-292021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-06-082021-06-062021-07-102021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-282021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-13 --2021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-06-082021-08-30 --2021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 92852 2476 29570 90762 50950 38195 18310 3718 20318 39289 19200 163861 1313 5166 2236 3904 15416 655 256 466 36508 8907 1001 2876 1290 4099 5243 1581 4325 5922 190 106 58 369 242 2608 3631 919 6935 601 31640 2331 1142 6892 4761 2270 521 5397 461 14955 18451 1194 3687 10 3420 1847 555
Low between peaks 2340 968 1351 4447 1388 617 60 -396 16443 96 70795 44 379 400 1655 2893 310 30 219 -1717 738 56 -448 236 1989 1566 742 1151 -8 43 47 11 169 64 851 83 88 1585 251 292 652 408 3348 -7 396 128 -39 175 3045 146 1215 2 772 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-24 18773164 106218346 2578962 3537675 1083425 1545999 3549479 14458827 2691663 10949997 637658 21933357 2369396 1049667 1774676 1287908 12651251 6153207 5620946 3231075 2708315 2437850 887224 2071372 1202017 2747563
2022-02-25 18836000 108232000 2609000 3562000 1096000 1557000 3565000 14725000 2767000 11032000 647500 22247000 2386000 1065000 1801000 1292000 12737000 6435000 5644000 3264000 2720000 2466000 889500 2100000 1211000 2802000
2022-02-26 18964000 109448000 2634000 3579000 1102000 1569000 3615000 14848000 2816000 11073000 648600 22466000 2405000 1074000 1808000 1297000 12801000 6585000 5662000 3284000 2732000 2480000 899100 2125000 1214000 2812000
2022-02-27 19061000 110349000 2669000 3585000 1105000 1577000 3648000 14903000 2849000 11081000 648700 22593000 2423000 1081000 1810000 1302000 12850000 6699000 5672000 3299000 2735000 2482000 905300 2140000 1214000 2816000
2022-02-28 19138000 111308000 2689000 3609000 1110000 1585000 3673000 15033000 2883000 11156000 666800 22670000 2439000 1086000 1830000 1306000 12883000 6785000 5677000 3307000 2743000 2488000 909600 2149000 1222000 2859000
2022-03-01 19212000 112575000 2709000 3627000 1116000 1598000 3695000 15237000 2914000 11197000 669800 22684000 2455000 1093000 1835000 1310000 12969000 6872000 5693000 3324000 2770000 2502000 913600 2167000 1235000 2877000
2022-03-02 19276000 113538000 2740000 3633000 1119000 1612000 3713000 15492000 2946000 11225000 674600 22722000 2471000 1099000 1840000 1315000 13018000 6912000 5710000 3338000 2780000 2502000 916500 2192000 1245000 2893000
2022-03-03 19336000 114044000 2765000 3649000 1123000 1623000 3728000 15688000 2975000 11272000 682700 22836000 2487000 1099000 1847000 1319000 13062000 6914000 5731000 3350000 2790000 2510000 919100 2212000 1261000 2906000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-24 3150771 28589235 3267366 2953895 6056556 42894345 5408328 7011932 5473489 3506075 3657342 15697674 3667560 13841889 78798989 236925 1276580 791770 1973479 8940505 1309668 719170 134214 255287 2371794 229477 747652 421587 3024496 1679591 764957 1267696 1161034 1527791 999890 223823 2306610 1405215 1287964 788479 265177 2578419 237599 449646 288490 2157923 503759 679715 4917251 2649692 1015389 691337 2751629 1458075 235654 1909657 6527165 687500 1634851 96424 1411231 1569673 487446 154797
2022-02-25 3172000 28902000 3284000 3002000 6063000 42912000 5474000 7033000 5503000 3514000 3659000 15945000 3670000 13939000 79234000 239700 1277000 796000 1976000 8956000 1316000 721400 134600 255900 2386000 230100 747700 424100 3036000 1689000 768400 1280000 1167000 1533000 1001000 224800 2319000 1418000 1294000 793800 267500 2593000 239600 450100 290400 2163000 504900 681500 4921000 2651000 1029000 697600 2752000 1466000 236900 1946000 6565000 690900 1644000 96550 1426000 1575000 491600 156000
2022-02-26 3196000 29111000 3295000 3041000 6068000 42965000 5534000 7087000 5549000 3546000 3663000 16139000 3673000 14068000 79467000 240400 1283000 798200 1984000 9014000 1318000 722200 134800 256500 2391000 231500 747700 425600 3041000 1692000 769800 1283000 1169000 1535000 1002000 226300 2323000 1422000 1298000 795000 268000 2600000 240900 450700 290900 2165000 505800 682400 4926000 2655000 1032000 700500 2755000 1467000 237200 1953000 6586000 692400 1647000 96790 1429000 1579000 493800 156400
2022-02-27 3219000 29215000 3301000 3075000 6072000 43000000 5582000 7125000 5554000 3566000 3666000 16307000 3675000 14183000 79567000 240800 1287000 799800 1989000 9052000 1320000 722600 134900 257000 2394000 232500 747700 425700 3043000 1695000 770700 1284000 1170000 1536000 1003000 227500 2325000 1425000 1299000 795000 268200 2603000 241700 451100 291100 2166000 506100 682900 4931000 2658000 1034000 701600 2756000 1468000 237300 1957000 6600000 693300 1649000 97010 1431000 1581000 495200 156500
2022-02-28 3241000 29329000 3309000 3100000 6074000 43026000 5613000 7156000 5556000 3580000 3669000 16461000 3678000 14288000 79754000 242000 1289000 800800 1992000 9080000 1323000 723800 135100 257300 2399000 233300 749400 426300 3047000 1696000 772300 1293000 1172000 1538000 1004000 228200 2331000 1430000 1301000 799200 268900 2616000 242400 452100 291800 2166000 508400 683800 4934000 2660000 1041000 704300 2757000 1472000 237700 1966000 6614000 695100 1655000 97220 1437000 1585000 497300 156900
2022-03-01 3262000 29486000 3317000 3120000 6075000 43050000 5666000 7184000 5563000 3591000 3671000 16591000 3680000 14391000 79800000 242200 1291000 803300 1996000 9104000 1326000 724600 135500 257800 2402000 234000 754600 428500 3053000 1699000 775100 1297000 1175000 1541000 1005000 229900 2332000 1436000 1304000 799200 270300 2620000 243500 452500 292600 2170000 509600 685700 4937000 2662000 1052000 708000 2758000 1480000 238000 1974000 6630000 697100 1659000 97440 1438000 1588000 497700 157300
2022-03-02 3283000 29644000 3325000 3144000 6077000 43069000 5725000 7208000 5591000 3600000 3673000 16720000 3682000 14489000 79858000 243400 1293000 804600 1998000 9124000 1328000 725500 135700 258000 2405000 234600 760500 430700 3055000 1701000 776000 1300000 1175000 1543000 1005000 231200 2341000 1439000 1305000 799200 270900 2624000 244000 452700 294100 2171000 510600 686000 4940000 2663000 1060000 709100 2759000 1480000 238300 2000000 6641000 698100 1661000 97640 1438000 1589000 498300 157400
2022-03-03 3303000 29733000 3331000 3177000 6080000 43086000 5783000 7230000 5607000 3607000 3675000 16851000 3684000 14587000 79941000 243400 1294000 805100 2000000 9141000 1331000 726100 135900 258700 2409000 235200 760500 432800 3057000 1703000 776200 1302000 1177000 1544000 1006000 232400 2341000 1440000 1307000 799200 271700 2629000 244200 453300 295100 2172000 511700 687000 4943000 2665000 1060000 710300 2759000 1481000 238500 2000000 6649000 698800 1663000 97840 1439000 1591000 499800 157600

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-02-24 18773164 106218346 2578962 3537675 1083425 1545999 3549479 14458827 2691663 10949997 637658 21933357 2369396 1049667 1774676 1287908 12651251 6153207 5620946 3231075 2708315 2437850 887224 2071372 1202017 2747563
2022-02-25 18801000 106807000 2608000 3540000 1088000 1557000 3565000 14639000 2725000 10967000 644100 22055000 2386000 1053000 1781000 1292000 12695000 6211000 5639000 3243000 2717000 2435000 889000 2091000 1215000 2773000
2022-02-26 18859000 107273000 2625000 3544000 1091000 1569000 3587000 14741000 2760000 10980000 645100 22161000 2401000 1056000 1782000 1295000 12736000 6274000 5655000 3253000 2727000 2440000 892900 2114000 1224000 2776000
2022-02-27 18914000 107616000 2660000 3547000 1092000 1578000 3601000 14787000 2787000 10988000 645400 22246000 2414000 1058000 1783000 1299000 12767000 6327000 5667000 3259000 2732000 2443000 895200 2129000 1229000 2779000
2022-02-28 18956000 108056000 2679000 3561000 1096000 1585000 3615000 14910000 2814000 11035000 662200 22307000 2430000 1059000 1796000 1303000 12783000 6373000 5671000 3263000 2738000 2446000 896900 2138000 1242000 2810000
2022-03-01 19036000 108737000 2695000 3576000 1102000 1594000 3630000 15103000 2848000 11071000 667100 22354000 2449000 1062000 1801000 1307000 12852000 6419000 5685000 3275000 2755000 2465000 899100 2158000 1261000 2828000
2022-03-02 19090000 109541000 2735000 3585000 1106000 1608000 3643000 15388000 2890000 11105000 672300 22406000 2466000 1067000 1810000 1310000 12893000 6458000 5705000 3288000 2766000 2478000 902100 2184000 1276000 2846000
2022-03-03 19145000 110095000 2765000 3594000 1110000 1618000 3657000 15605000 2932000 11137000 682500 22470000 2483000 1069000 1817000 1314000 12932000 6492000 5725000 3299000 2776000 2486000 906300 2209000 1294000 2854000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-25 to 2022-03-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-02-24 3150771 28589235 3267366 2953895 6056556 42894345 5408328 7011932 5473489 3506075 3657342 15697674 3667560 13841889 78798989 236925 1276580 791770 1973479 8940505 1309668 719170 134214 255287 2371794 229477 747652 421587 3024496 1679591 764957 1267696 1161034 1527791 999890 223823 2306610 1405215 1287964 788479 265177 2578419 237599 449646 288490 2157923 503759 679715 4917251 2649692 1015389 691337 2751629 1458075 235654 1909657 6527165 687500 1634851 96424 1411231 1569673 487446 154797
2022-02-25 3175000 28725000 3275000 2988000 6059000 42908000 5472000 7031000 5493000 3514000 3659000 15886000 3670000 13918000 78980000 238700 1278000 792700 1976000 8942000 1311000 720000 134300 255600 2375000 229700 746600 423600 3027000 1681000 766400 1271000 1162000 1529000 1001000 225300 2315000 1408000 1289000 789800 266500 2581000 237900 450000 289800 2160000 504000 680300 4920000 2651000 1016000 692300 2754000 1457000 236300 1912000 6537000 687900 1637000 96650 1419000 1571000 488800 155000
2022-02-26 3201000 28827000 3281000 3026000 6062000 42927000 5533000 7058000 5532000 3534000 3660000 16076000 3672000 14003000 79045000 239200 1281000 793300 1980000 8957000 1312000 720200 134400 255800 2376000 230100 746700 424500 3028000 1682000 767100 1271000 1163000 1530000 1001000 227000 2317000 1409000 1290000 790700 266600 2583000 238300 450100 290000 2161000 504300 680400 4922000 2653000 1019000 692900 2758000 1457000 236400 1914000 6543000 688200 1638000 96800 1422000 1572000 489800 155100
2022-02-27 3225000 28859000 3284000 3059000 6065000 42940000 5588000 7081000 5534000 3549000 3661000 16254000 3674000 14080000 79091000 239800 1283000 793900 1982000 8966000 1313000 720300 134400 256000 2378000 230400 747000 424600 3028000 1683000 768100 1271000 1163000 1531000 1002000 229200 2320000 1410000 1290000 791600 266700 2584000 238500 450400 290100 2162000 504500 680800 4925000 2654000 1020000 693300 2759000 1458000 236400 1916000 6545000 688500 1638000 96940 1426000 1573000 490200 155200
2022-02-28 3248000 28888000 3290000 3085000 6066000 42954000 5630000 7104000 5535000 3556000 3662000 16425000 3675000 14160000 79174000 241000 1284000 794300 1985000 8979000 1316000 721300 134600 256100 2381000 230600 747600 425000 3032000 1685000 769900 1277000 1164000 1532000 1002000 230000 2325000 1411000 1291000 794200 267000 2594000 238700 451300 290600 2162000 506100 681500 4927000 2655000 1023000 694400 2760000 1460000 236600 1919000 6549000 689300 1643000 97090 1433000 1576000 492200 155400
2022-03-01 3271000 28982000 3296000 3109000 6068000 42973000 5678000 7134000 5542000 3570000 3663000 16586000 3677000 14246000 79253000 241500 1287000 795800 1987000 8994000 1318000 721900 134900 256300 2384000 230800 748500 427000 3038000 1688000 772100 1281000 1166000 1535000 1002000 232500 2327000 1415000 1293000 796000 268100 2599000 239100 451900 291400 2165000 507200 683200 4929000 2657000 1027000 697700 2762000 1469000 236800 1923000 6555000 690800 1646000 97240 1435000 1578000 492900 155700
2022-03-02 3294000 29112000 3304000 3139000 6070000 42984000 5735000 7158000 5568000 3578000 3664000 16747000 3680000 14335000 79288000 243400 1291000 796900 1989000 9012000 1320000 722900 135100 256500 2386000 231000 755000 429000 3041000 1689000 774800 1284000 1168000 1536000 1003000 235500 2337000 1418000 1295000 797100 268800 2602000 239400 452500 292700 2166000 508000 683700 4931000 2658000 1040000 699200 2764000 1474000 237100 1952000 6561000 691500 1649000 97390 1443000 1580000 493500 156000
2022-03-03 3317000 29205000 3312000 3180000 6072000 42995000 5795000 7181000 5583000 3594000 3665000 16922000 3683000 14418000 79379000 243700 1292000 797700 1991000 9028000 1322000 723500 135200 256800 2389000 231200 755300 430800 3042000 1690000 775500 1288000 1169000 1537000 1003000 238200 2338000 1419000 1298000 798400 269300 2607000 239800 452900 293600 2168000 508700 684400 4933000 2660000 1041000 700800 2766000 1477000 237300 1957000 6566000 692100 1652000 97530 1445000 1582000 495100 156200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed