COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-27


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-04-27

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-01-272022-03-182022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-01-282022-01-172022-04-212022-03-292022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-03-282022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-03-252022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 711177 1226247 45851 49622 8686 19196 35043 233183 44590 139098 23305 141888 34255 8554 16049 7694 181768 321030 46977 25541 29129 41686 14275 22200 20182 36137
Days since peak 86 90 40 93 92 81 90 34 89 100 6 29 113 99 93 30 105 79 89 33 85 92 84 76 85 93
Last total 22011920 135711949 4122797 4036113 1155387 1864481 3902095 24609159 3113693 11833457 1000472 27719872 3302382 1119916 1897897 1515005 16279754 8126551 5993861 3815103 2890827 2498388 1007538 2526855 1425079 3619598
Last daily increment 17111 476551 8239 0 741 2041 1651 271765 1207 0 0 54822 11487 1390 2220 970 88431 0 1041 23359 1464 0 1161 3759 407 0
Last week 102411 1657200 38439 20322 3136 9580 9591 602905 7663 96564 0 376784 36014 4474 8991 6632 345317 9480 5343 44519 4543 0 5825 11971 2496 22743
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032021-08-182021-07-262022-01-082022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-272021-10-202021-01-052021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 17433 4795 326 18453 59359 991 26576 8429 348859 893 178 10224 23007 6504 9508 23866 52990 14737 7986 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 1378 5917 1340 94 4084 27574 327 1518 2971 47730 385 67 1865 2841 2498 1257 11029 7039 301 223 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-04-27

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-03-272022-01-282022-04-132022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-03-312022-01-092022-01-102022-04-182022-04-122022-01-132022-01-152022-01-102022-01-192022-01-122022-01-242022-01-102022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-04-192022-04-132022-02-152022-04-202022-04-182022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-172022-02-282022-01-182022-04-152022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-01-122022-01-182022-01-112022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-04-082022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-04-202022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57034 182433 43940 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 21060 47145 33451 186181 20848 100070 792793 2786 27264 8269 4750 125146 24571 799 436 3036 118675 46066 4415 7758 2780 32479 15103 13928 12332 15200 1927 605 8196 3199 760 12288 7895 2224 59694 2105 17291 7668 1974 10240 16077 83161 33879 16540 9944 27642 21784 5132 15615 19761 16316 20181 10786 20947 822 5238 1799
Days since peak 31 89 14 78 102 96 69 78 20 98 101 74 136 82 103 98 101 104 27 108 107 9 15 104 102 107 98 105 93 107 100 103 99 103 8 14 71 7 9 113 114 93 99 100 58 99 12 99 98 114 102 105 99 106 99 98 99 19 99 107 55 99 7 114 99
Last total 5847576 30399004 3741528 3551383 6091959 43068799 6045660 7219433 5736579 3563151 3685029 17894787 3776298 15026141 81189379 252085 1300278 808456 2021524 9211708 1380763 753701 141943 261097 5939760 2424421 241955 763063 445821 3128050 1700774 774750 1323217 1171767 1602864 1028752 243113 2381431 1448138 1308122 797161 273788 2659255 240713 477418 304011 2248741 514694 712287 5142462 2688327 1038059 718630 2812954 1472093 237812 1942609 6741424 694483 1697577 121850 1489926 1607201 500697 156550
Last daily increment 50876 20943 13085 2056 206 3303 617 1009 1464 851 194 7635 6371 2479 88780 1492 202 154 2350 1757 1246 1043 588 196 0 5594 3192 1715 151 3429 1561 0 0 285 2809 726 523 14426 1357 292 0 108 11606 0 0 518 3096 0 1937 7380 0 0 1125 2173 0 277 2606 2933 0 1680 715 3930 1625 253 0
Last week 234235 68375 51256 12540 1439 16374 3065 5625 4944 4538 1164 47969 25468 15423 327469 1492 1398 685 2350 29716 7347 5278 1098 1042 36371 5594 3192 1715 471 17899 5038 2083 3018 1265 12923 4847 1890 14426 6531 1270 665 375 11606 0 2225 2770 14234 593 1937 37965 0 0 5012 9576 0 277 2606 15028 0 8014 1801 13630 7080 1078 158
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132022-01-172021-08-20 --2022-01-102021-12-272021-09-232021-09-032021-08-302021-08-292021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092022-01-102022-01-032021-06-062022-01-192022-01-242021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-1311-132021-09-252021-11-022022-01-06 --2021-09-13 --12-082021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-132021-09-132021-09-102022-01-1311-142021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302022-01-172021-09-1611-15
Previous peak daily increment 109702 92852 40920 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19200 163958 1313 5166 2236 44245 15426 10476 3465 466 40730 8907 1001 2877 1290 4100 5243 1581 4325 5922 21044 13446 58 32109 12535 2608 3631 919 6936 1487 31640 2331 30365 1142 17562 5395 2270 521 5414 461 8111 60465 2465 3687 1273 3420 55374 1847 788
Low between peaks 19599 2340 5057 968 1351 4447 143 1388 1974 60 -396 16444 96 70842 44 379 400 489 2886 290 -219 219 -2312 738 56 -448 236 1989 1567 742 1151 -8 563 262 11 608 282 851 83 88 1585 12 172 652 901 408 235 222 396 128 394 175 957 2105 151 1215 52 772 284 318 57

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-27 22011920 135711949 4122797 4036113 1155387 1864481 3902095 24609159 3113693 11833457 27719872 3302382 1119916 1897897 1515005 16279754 8126551 5993861 3815103 2890827 1007538 2526855 1425079 3619598
2022-04-28 22071000 136342000 4136000 4061000 1156000 1869000 3904000 24775000 3118000 11833000 27934000 3316000 1120000 1901000 1517000 16346000 8130000 5995000 3826000 2892000 1010000 2531000 1425000 3630000
2022-04-29 22116000 136768000 4146000 4062000 1157000 1872000 3910000 24898000 3120000 11863000 28080000 3328000 1121000 1902000 1520000 16413000 8138000 5996000 3833000 2893000 1012000 2535000 1426000 3634000
2022-04-30 22126000 137013000 4154000 4062000 1157000 1874000 3913000 24947000 3122000 11863000 28191000 3336000 1122000 1903000 1522000 16477000 8145000 5997000 3839000 2894000 1013000 2538000 1426000 3638000
2022-05-01 22134000 137172000 4163000 4062000 1157000 1875000 3916000 24969000 3123000 11863000 28267000 3341000 1122000 1903000 1524000 16529000 8151000 5998000 3839000 2894000 1014000 2539000 1426000 3642000
2022-05-02 22179000 137381000 4171000 4066000 1158000 1877000 3919000 25084000 3124000 11863000 28299000 3347000 1123000 1905000 1525000 16551000 8158000 5998000 3840000 2894000 1015000 2540000 1427000 3645000
2022-05-03 22215000 137613000 4176000 4081000 1159000 1878000 3921000 25126000 3126000 11865000 28370000 3353000 1123000 1907000 1527000 16582000 8164000 6000000 3845000 2895000 1016000 2542000 1427000 3677000
2022-05-04 22239000 138033000 4183000 4081000 1159000 1880000 3923000 25364000 3127000 11871000 28454000 3362000 1124000 1909000 1528000 16664000 8171000 6001000 3865000 2896000 1017000 2544000 1428000 3677000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-04-27 5847576 30399004 3741528 3551383 6091959 43068799 6045660 7219433 5736579 3563151 3685029 17894787 3776298 15026141 81189379 252085 1300278 808456 2021524 9211708 1380763 753701 141943 261097 5939760 2424421 241955 763063 445821 3128050 1700774 774750 1323217 1171767 1602864 1028752 243113 2381431 1448138 1308122 797161 273788 2659255 477418 304011 2248741 514694 712287 5142462 718630 2812954 237812 1942609 6741424 1697577 121850 1489926 1607201 500697
2022-04-28 5897000 30427000 3753000 3557000 6092000 43071000 6047000 7226000 5737000 3564000 3685000 17903000 3780000 15032000 81189000 252100 1300000 808500 2022000 9216000 1383000 754000 142200 261300 5940000 2427000 246400 765600 445800 3129000 1701000 774800 1323000 1172000 1604000 1029000 243400 2381000 1448000 1308000 797400 273800 2663000 477400 304800 2251000 515000 712300 5148000 718600 2813000 238000 1943000 6744000 1698000 122000 1490000 1607000 501200
2022-04-29 5964000 30444000 3762000 3562000 6092000 43072000 6047000 7231000 5738000 3564000 3686000 17914000 3785000 15036000 81241000 252100 1301000 808500 2023000 9217000 1385000 754900 142400 261400 5949000 2429000 248700 766300 446000 3130000 1701000 775900 1324000 1172000 1605000 1029000 243700 2383000 1449000 1308000 797400 273800 2667000 477400 305400 2252000 515300 712600 5151000 718700 2813000 238200 1943000 6747000 1699000 122000 1493000 1608000 501500
2022-04-30 6021000 30453000 3770000 3566000 6092000 43074000 6048000 7233000 5739000 3564000 3686000 17923000 3788000 15039000 81245000 252100 1301000 808600 2023000 9217000 1385000 754900 142700 261500 5950000 2431000 251300 766900 446000 3130000 1701000 775900 1324000 1172000 1605000 1029000 244000 2384000 1449000 1308000 797500 273800 2672000 477500 305500 2253000 515400 712900 5155000 718700 2814000 238400 1943000 6748000 1699000 122200 1493000 1608000 501700
2022-05-01 6073000 30458000 3773000 3569000 6093000 43075000 6048000 7236000 5741000 3565000 3686000 17932000 3792000 15041000 81247000 252100 1301000 808600 2024000 9217000 1385000 754900 142700 261600 5950000 2433000 253900 767600 446000 3130000 1701000 776100 1324000 1172000 1605000 1029000 244100 2385000 1449000 1308000 797500 273800 2676000 477700 305700 2255000 515500 713300 5160000 718700 2814000 238600 1943000 6748000 1699000 122400 1493000 1608000 501900
2022-05-02 6124000 30467000 3778000 3571000 6093000 43077000 6048000 7240000 5741000 3565000 3686000 17940000 3795000 15044000 81295000 252200 1302000 808600 2025000 9220000 1388000 756400 142700 261700 5950000 2435000 256800 768300 446100 3135000 1702000 776100 1327000 1172000 1608000 1030000 244100 2387000 1449000 1309000 797500 273900 2681000 478000 306200 2256000 516000 714000 5165000 719700 2815000 238800 1943000 6751000 1701000 122600 1494000 1611000 502300
2022-05-03 6173000 30485000 3785000 3573000 6093000 43079000 6048000 7242000 5741000 3566000 3686000 17948000 3799000 15047000 81346000 252200 1302000 808800 2025000 9233000 1389000 757500 142900 261800 5952000 2437000 259300 768900 446100 3138000 1702000 776100 1327000 1172000 1611000 1032000 244600 2388000 1451000 1309000 798000 274000 2686000 478700 306600 2258000 516200 714400 5170000 720600 2816000 238900 1943000 6755000 1703000 122800 1498000 1612000 502600
2022-05-04 6221000 30507000 3797000 3575000 6093000 43082000 6048000 7243000 5742000 3566000 3686000 17956000 3804000 15049000 81417000 253700 1302000 808900 2026000 9234000 1390000 758300 143500 261900 5954000 2440000 260100 768900 446200 3140000 1703000 776200 1328000 1173000 1613000 1032000 245200 2400000 1452000 1309000 798000 274100 2691000 478800 307000 2260000 516400 716100 5176000 721500 2818000 239100 1945000 6755000 1704000 123000 1502000 1614000 502700

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-27 22011920 135711949 4122797 4036113 1155387 1864481 3902095 24609159 3113693 11833457 27719872 3302382 1119916 1897897 1515005 16279754 8126551 5993861 3815103 2890827 1007538 2526855 1425079 3619598
2022-04-28 22022000 136146000 4131000 4059000 1156000 1867000 3903000 24765000 3115000 11833000 27801000 3310000 1121000 1900000 1516000 16343000 8131000 5995000 3828000 2892000 1009000 2531000 1426000 3620000
2022-04-29 22043000 136474000 4137000 4060000 1156000 1869000 3906000 24852000 3117000 11864000 27887000 3315000 1122000 1902000 1517000 16409000 8138000 5996000 3836000 2893000 1010000 2533000 1426000 3622000
2022-04-30 22048000 136657000 4142000 4061000 1157000 1870000 3907000 24882000 3119000 11866000 27972000 3319000 1123000 1902000 1518000 16470000 8145000 5997000 3841000 2893000 1011000 2535000 1426000 3622000
2022-05-01 22055000 136765000 4147000 4062000 1157000 1871000 3907000 24894000 3119000 11867000 28033000 3323000 1123000 1902000 1519000 16513000 8151000 5997000 3841000 2894000 1011000 2536000 1426000 3623000
2022-05-02 22098000 136920000 4151000 4068000 1157000 1872000 3910000 24976000 3120000 11867000 28068000 3327000 1123000 1903000 1521000 16547000 8159000 5998000 3842000 2894000 1012000 2537000 1427000 3624000
2022-05-03 22156000 137276000 4154000 4083000 1158000 1874000 3912000 25045000 3122000 11900000 28161000 3333000 1124000 1906000 1523000 16586000 8166000 5998000 3851000 2895000 1013000 2539000 1427000 3645000
2022-05-04 22184000 137691000 4159000 4084000 1159000 1876000 3915000 25238000 3124000 11907000 28275000 3339000 1124000 1907000 1524000 16666000 8173000 5999000 3865000 2896000 1014000 2540000 1428000 3646000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-28 to 2022-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-04-27 5847576 30399004 3741528 3551383 6091959 43068799 6045660 7219433 5736579 3563151 3685029 17894787 3776298 15026141 81189379 252085 1300278 808456 2021524 9211708 1380763 753701 141943 261097 5939760 2424421 241955 763063 445821 3128050 1700774 774750 1323217 1171767 1602864 1028752 243113 2381431 1448138 1308122 797161 273788 2659255 477418 304011 2248741 514694 712287 5142462 718630 2812954 237812 1942609 6741424 1697577 121850 1489926 1607201 500697
2022-04-28 5890000 30416000 3752000 3554000 6092000 43072000 6047000 7221000 5738000 3564000 3685000 17903000 3781000 15028000 81254000 252200 1301000 808600 2023000 9222000 1383000 754600 142100 261300 5940000 2426000 243100 763500 445800 3132000 1701000 774900 1323000 1172000 1606000 1030000 243500 2384000 1449000 1308000 797300 273800 2662000 477800 304600 2251000 514900 712600 5149000 719600 2815000 237900 1943000 6744000 1699000 122200 1491000 1609000 501000
2022-04-29 5928000 30427000 3761000 3557000 6092000 43073000 6048000 7222000 5738000 3564000 3685000 17911000 3784000 15030000 81322000 252200 1301000 808700 2023000 9226000 1384000 755700 142200 261400 5950000 2427000 243500 763700 446000 3135000 1702000 776100 1323000 1172000 1608000 1030000 244000 2384000 1451000 1309000 797300 273900 2662000 477900 305000 2254000 515100 712600 5154000 720200 2816000 237900 1943000 6748000 1701000 122500 1493000 1610000 501100
2022-04-30 5965000 30432000 3771000 3559000 6092000 43075000 6049000 7223000 5739000 3565000 3686000 17918000 3787000 15032000 81335000 252200 1301000 808800 2024000 9226000 1384000 755800 142500 261600 5951000 2427000 243900 763800 446000 3135000 1702000 776300 1324000 1172000 1608000 1030000 244300 2384000 1451000 1309000 797400 273900 2664000 478100 305100 2256000 515100 712800 5159000 720300 2817000 238000 1943000 6750000 1701000 122600 1493000 1610000 501200
2022-05-01 6002000 30435000 3773000 3561000 6093000 43076000 6049000 7223000 5739000 3565000 3686000 17926000 3790000 15034000 81345000 252300 1301000 808800 2024000 9226000 1385000 755800 142500 261700 5952000 2427000 244300 763900 446000 3135000 1702000 776500 1324000 1172000 1608000 1031000 244400 2385000 1451000 1309000 797500 273900 2664000 478200 305200 2257000 515200 712900 5164000 720300 2818000 238000 1943000 6750000 1701000 122700 1494000 1610000 501200
2022-05-02 6039000 30442000 3779000 3562000 6093000 43078000 6050000 7225000 5740000 3566000 3686000 17933000 3792000 15037000 81385000 252300 1302000 808800 2024000 9232000 1387000 757300 142500 261900 5952000 2428000 244700 764000 446100 3140000 1703000 776600 1327000 1173000 1611000 1031000 244500 2385000 1451000 1309000 797800 274000 2666000 478500 306100 2258000 515500 713100 5170000 721400 2819000 238000 1943000 6753000 1703000 123100 1495000 1612000 501500
2022-05-03 6076000 30460000 3785000 3563000 6093000 43080000 6051000 7227000 5740000 3567000 3686000 17939000 3794000 15039000 81422000 252300 1302000 808900 2025000 9240000 1388000 758200 142700 262000 5954000 2428000 245000 764100 446100 3142000 1703000 776700 1327000 1173000 1614000 1033000 244800 2386000 1453000 1309000 798000 274000 2667000 479100 306400 2260000 515700 713200 5176000 722000 2820000 238100 1943000 6756000 1704000 123300 1497000 1613000 501600
2022-05-04 6113000 30486000 3800000 3565000 6093000 43082000 6051000 7228000 5741000 3567000 3686000 17946000 3798000 15042000 81474000 253500 1302000 809000 2026000 9241000 1390000 759100 143300 262100 5956000 2430000 246000 765000 446200 3144000 1704000 776800 1327000 1173000 1616000 1033000 245400 2393000 1454000 1309000 798100 274100 2671000 479300 306700 2262000 515900 714500 5182000 722700 2822000 238200 1944000 6757000 1705000 123600 1500000 1615000 501700

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed