COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-05-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-01-272022-03-182022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-01-282022-01-172022-04-212022-04-052022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-03-212022-01-122022-04-112022-01-282022-03-252022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 711179 1226246 45852 49622 8686 19196 35043 233182 44590 139099 27728 142314 34255 8554 16049 7176 181768 11850 46977 25257 29129 41686 14275 22199 20182 36137
Days since peak 93 97 47 100 99 88 97 41 96 107 13 29 120 106 100 44 112 23 96 40 92 99 91 83 92 100
Last total 22090523 137318722 4161004 4071279 1158354 1871561 3910386 25130137 3120061 11953481 1023013 28026502 3343565 1124762 1903200 1520327 16633911 8138804 5997998 3891241 2896012 2500917 1012915 2533654 1427148 3636226
Last daily increment 16665 233783 6760 0 435 1013 1219 96167 962 0 0 47925 8015 1184 0 1031 47643 1680 173 12318 0 0 1662 5438 350 0
Last week 64598 1284529 31846 14831 2379 5571 6727 419368 5280 120024 0 246870 33603 3996 3567 4174 284123 9266 3180 63025 4039 0 5094 5438 1684 16628
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032021-08-182021-07-262022-01-082022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212022-02-072021-11-302022-01-272021-10-202021-01-052021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 17433 4795 326 18453 59358 991 26576 8429 348861 893 178 10224 23008 6504 321030 23866 52990 14737 7986 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 1378 5917 1340 94 4084 27574 327 1518 459 47730 385 67 1865 2841 2498 5392 11029 7039 301 223 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-05-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-012022-01-282022-04-132022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-03-312022-01-092022-01-102022-04-252022-04-122022-01-132022-01-152022-01-102022-04-272022-01-122022-01-242022-01-102022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-04-252022-04-262022-02-152022-04-202022-04-252022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-172022-02-282022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-01-122022-01-182022-01-112022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-04-082022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57807 182433 42098 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 22317 47145 33452 186181 20848 100070 792817 2786 27264 8269 4418 125176 24571 900 455 3036 107323 46066 1524 7758 2780 32479 15103 13928 12332 15200 2217 812 8196 2448 1006 12288 7895 2224 59694 2101 17291 7668 30365 10240 16077 83161 33879 16540 9944 27642 19407 5132 15615 19623 16316 20181 10786 20947 55374 5238 1799
Days since peak 33 96 21 85 109 103 76 85 27 105 108 81 143 89 110 105 108 111 34 115 114 9 22 111 109 114 7 112 100 114 107 110 106 110 9 8 78 14 9 120 121 100 106 107 65 106 118 106 105 121 109 112 106 113 106 105 106 26 106 114 62 106 107 121 106
Last total 6130822 30502501 3787349 3566183 6092667 43091393 6047491 7223828 5739680 3567863 3686375 17940665 3808368 15037242 81620383 253552 1301805 809373 2025435 9261372 1387018 760848 141943 262605 5939760 2430802 246110 765184 446549 3157366 1705394 776735 1326611 1173625 1621335 1036338 248081 2400247 1458542 1309567 797922 274388 2673326 241127 478252 307052 2269853 516514 714715 5196197 2697058 1039788 726612 2827882 1477345 238185 1945976 6760372 695876 1710272 124012 1504800 1618023 502192 156745
Last daily increment 58258 20072 10798 2533 0 3275 176 252 0 692 159 5024 6170 1132 114308 1467 342 220 3911 2725 919 1046 0 210 0 6381 4155 2121 322 5736 1815 0 0 351 2982 1330 1032 18816 2577 212 0 123 14071 0 0 575 3406 244 2428 8625 0 0 1462 2615 0 373 3367 3123 0 3187 488 -2144 2708 224 0
Last week 241466 83581 37324 12227 500 19217 1419 3426 1869 3934 1153 38331 27924 8845 357248 1467 1294 731 3911 35947 5056 5896 0 1260 0 6381 4155 2121 728 24732 4620 1837 3394 1584 15133 6194 4498 18816 8773 1142 761 484 14071 0 834 2654 17944 1162 2428 44148 0 0 6755 12364 3071 373 3367 15785 0 10676 1776 14874 9104 1220 195
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132022-01-172021-08-20 --2022-01-102021-12-272021-09-232021-08-062021-08-302022-01-192021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092022-01-102022-01-032021-06-062022-01-192022-01-242021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-1311-132021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-13 --12-082021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-062021-09-132021-09-102022-01-1311-142021-09-132021-11-292021-08-30 --2021-09-1611-15
Previous peak daily increment 109702 92852 40919 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19200 163957 1313 5166 2236 44245 15426 10476 3539 466 38680 8907 4415 2877 1290 4100 5243 1581 4325 5922 21044 13446 58 32109 12535 2608 3631 919 6936 1487 31640 2331 1142 17562 5395 2270 521 5397 461 8111 60465 2465 3687 1273 3420 1847 788
Low between peaks 19599 2340 5057 968 1351 4447 143 1388 2342 60 -396 16444 96 70842 44 379 400 584 2885 315 55 219 -1058 738 63 -448 236 1989 1567 742 1151 -8 563 232 11 303 238 851 83 88 1585 12 172 652 408 235 222 396 128 -39 175 957 2022 151 1215 52 772 318 57

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-05 to 2022-05-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-05-04 22090523 137318722 4161004 4071279 1158354 1871561 3910386 25130137 3120061 11953481 28026502 3343565 1124762 1903200 1520327 16633911 8138804 5997998 3891241 2896012 1012915 2533654 1427148 3636226
2022-05-05 22156000 137870000 4172000 4095000 1159000 1875000 3914000 25351000 3123000 11953000 28190000 3353000 1125000 1908000 1521000 16720000 8142000 6000000 3895000 2898000 1014000 2537000 1428000 3643000
2022-05-06 22197000 138273000 4181000 4096000 1160000 1878000 3917000 25452000 3125000 11997000 28305000 3363000 1126000 1910000 1523000 16786000 8148000 6001000 3910000 2899000 1016000 2539000 1429000 3647000
2022-05-07 22213000 138459000 4188000 4096000 1160000 1880000 3918000 25462000 3126000 11997000 28386000 3369000 1127000 1910000 1525000 16843000 8153000 6002000 3911000 2900000 1017000 2540000 1429000 3650000
2022-05-08 22229000 138580000 4194000 4096000 1160000 1880000 3919000 25462000 3127000 11997000 28442000 3373000 1127000 1910000 1526000 16885000 8159000 6002000 3911000 2901000 1018000 2541000 1429000 3651000
2022-05-09 22264000 138787000 4199000 4105000 1161000 1882000 3921000 25576000 3128000 11997000 28473000 3378000 1127000 1912000 1528000 16907000 8165000 6002000 3911000 2901000 1018000 2541000 1430000 3652000
2022-05-10 22319000 139043000 4204000 4113000 1161000 1883000 3922000 25666000 3129000 12030000 28510000 3382000 1128000 1913000 1529000 16950000 8171000 6003000 3929000 2902000 1018000 2541000 1430000 3674000
2022-05-11 22336000 139306000 4211000 4116000 1162000 1884000 3924000 25800000 3130000 12030000 28569000 3390000 1129000 1913000 1529000 17011000 8177000 6004000 3942000 2902000 1020000 2545000 1430000 3674000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-05 to 2022-05-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-05-04 6130822 30502501 3787349 3566183 6092667 43091393 6047491 7223828 5739680 3567863 3686375 17940665 3808368 15037242 81620383 253552 1301805 809373 2025435 9261372 1387018 760848 262605 2430802 246110 765184 446549 3157366 1705394 776735 1326611 1173625 1621335 1036338 248081 2400247 1458542 1309567 797922 274388 2673326 478252 307052 2269853 516514 714715 5196197 726612 2827882 1477345 238185 1945976 6760372 1710272 124012 1504800 1618023 502192
2022-05-05 6175000 30517000 3812000 3569000 6093000 43095000 6049000 7226000 5741000 3569000 3687000 17947000 3812000 15041000 81631000 253600 1302000 809500 2026000 9266000 1390000 761400 262600 2431000 250500 767100 446500 3158000 1705000 776700 1329000 1174000 1623000 1037000 248100 2422000 1459000 1310000 797900 274400 2673000 478400 307200 2271000 516700 717800 5202000 726600 2828000 1477000 238600 1946000 6760000 1716000 124300 1505000 1618000 502200
2022-05-06 6218000 30529000 3831000 3572000 6093000 43099000 6050000 7227000 5741000 3569000 3687000 17956000 3817000 15043000 81670000 253700 1302000 809500 2026000 9268000 1391000 762200 262700 2431000 252900 767600 446700 3160000 1706000 778100 1329000 1174000 1625000 1037000 248100 2431000 1459000 1310000 797900 274400 2673000 478600 307600 2272000 516800 719200 5206000 727100 2829000 1477000 238800 1946000 6761000 1720000 124500 1509000 1619000 502300
2022-05-07 6259000 30540000 3843000 3574000 6093000 43102000 6050000 7227000 5742000 3570000 3687000 17963000 3821000 15045000 81676000 253700 1302000 809600 2026000 9268000 1391000 762200 262700 2432000 255500 768200 446700 3160000 1706000 778100 1329000 1174000 1625000 1037000 248600 2440000 1459000 1310000 797900 274400 2673000 479100 307600 2275000 516800 720600 5211000 727100 2831000 1477000 239100 1946000 6761000 1721000 124500 1509000 1619000 502300
2022-05-08 6299000 30545000 3850000 3576000 6093000 43105000 6050000 7228000 5742000 3570000 3687000 17969000 3825000 15046000 81680000 254100 1303000 809600 2026000 9268000 1391000 762200 262700 2432000 258100 768800 446700 3160000 1706000 778100 1330000 1174000 1625000 1038000 248600 2446000 1459000 1310000 797900 274400 2674000 479200 307600 2276000 516800 722100 5217000 727100 2832000 1477000 239300 1946000 6761000 1723000 124500 1509000 1619000 502300
2022-05-09 6340000 30551000 3857000 3577000 6093000 43109000 6051000 7229000 5742000 3571000 3687000 17976000 3828000 15048000 81745000 254100 1303000 809700 2026000 9274000 1394000 763800 263100 2433000 260900 769500 446800 3166000 1707000 778300 1330000 1174000 1628000 1039000 249000 2457000 1460000 1310000 798400 274500 2676000 479400 308600 2278000 517100 723500 5223000 728200 2832000 1477000 239600 1946000 6763000 1727000 125100 1509000 1622000 502600
2022-05-10 6380000 30570000 3864000 3578000 6093000 43112000 6051000 7230000 5742000 3571000 3688000 17982000 3832000 15049000 81800000 254100 1304000 809800 2026000 9288000 1395000 765300 263200 2433000 263500 770100 446800 3169000 1707000 778700 1330000 1174000 1632000 1039000 249900 2465000 1462000 1310000 798600 274600 2676000 479600 309100 2280000 517200 724800 5229000 729700 2834000 1478000 239800 1946000 6765000 1729000 125300 1509000 1623000 502800
2022-05-11 6420000 30590000 3879000 3580000 6093000 43115000 6051000 7230000 5742000 3572000 3688000 17988000 3837000 15050000 81894000 255300 1304000 809900 2027000 9289000 1396000 766200 263400 2441000 264600 770100 447100 3173000 1709000 778800 1330000 1175000 1634000 1040000 250700 2467000 1464000 1311000 798600 274700 2692000 479700 309700 2283000 517400 725000 5235000 730900 2836000 1478000 239900 1949000 6767000 1730000 125700 1509000 1625000 502900

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-05 to 2022-05-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-05-04 22090523 137318722 4161004 4071279 1158354 1871561 3910386 25130137 3120061 11953481 28026502 3343565 1124762 1903200 1520327 16633911 8138804 5997998 3891241 2896012 1012915 2533654 1427148 3636226
2022-05-05 22102000 137628000 4167000 4090000 1159000 1873000 3911000 25239000 3121000 11960000 28079000 3350000 1126000 1905000 1521000 16695000 8142000 5999000 3904000 2897000 1013000 2536000 1428000 3635000
2022-05-06 22116000 137912000 4173000 4091000 1159000 1875000 3913000 25320000 3123000 12010000 28148000 3356000 1126000 1906000 1522000 16752000 8147000 6000000 3920000 2898000 1015000 2537000 1428000 3636000
2022-05-07 22119000 138049000 4178000 4091000 1159000 1875000 3914000 25326000 3124000 12019000 28203000 3361000 1127000 1906000 1523000 16806000 8153000 6000000 3922000 2898000 1015000 2537000 1428000 3636000
2022-05-08 22125000 138138000 4182000 4092000 1160000 1876000 3914000 25326000 3125000 12027000 28240000 3365000 1127000 1906000 1523000 16846000 8158000 6001000 3922000 2899000 1016000 2538000 1428000 3636000
2022-05-09 22154000 138296000 4186000 4098000 1160000 1877000 3916000 25417000 3126000 12036000 28263000 3370000 1127000 1908000 1525000 16868000 8163000 6001000 3922000 2899000 1016000 2538000 1429000 3637000
2022-05-10 22204000 138588000 4190000 4107000 1161000 1878000 3918000 25487000 3127000 12062000 28346000 3375000 1128000 1909000 1526000 16910000 8170000 6002000 3935000 2900000 1017000 2539000 1429000 3658000
2022-05-11 22224000 138962000 4196000 4109000 1161000 1880000 3919000 25687000 3129000 12069000 28419000 3381000 1129000 1911000 1527000 16984000 8175000 6003000 3949000 2901000 1018000 2542000 1430000 3659000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-05 to 2022-05-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-05-04 6130822 30502501 3787349 3566183 6092667 43091393 6047491 7223828 5739680 3567863 3686375 17940665 3808368 15037242 81620383 253552 1301805 809373 2025435 9261372 1387018 760848 262605 2430802 246110 765184 446549 3157366 1705394 776735 1326611 1173625 1621335 1036338 248081 2400247 1458542 1309567 797922 274388 2673326 478252 307052 2269853 516514 714715 5196197 726612 2827882 1477345 238185 1945976 6760372 1710272 124012 1504800 1618023 502192
2022-05-05 6175000 30519000 3798000 3569000 6093000 43095000 6048000 7225000 5740000 3569000 3687000 17947000 3813000 15039000 81697000 253600 1302000 809600 2026000 9275000 1388000 762100 262800 2432000 247300 765700 446600 3162000 1706000 776800 1327000 1174000 1625000 1038000 248800 2405000 1460000 1310000 797900 274500 2675000 478300 307500 2273000 517100 715400 5203000 727800 2830000 1479000 238300 1947000 6764000 1713000 124400 1505000 1620000 502500
2022-05-06 6211000 30529000 3810000 3571000 6093000 43098000 6048000 7225000 5742000 3569000 3687000 17953000 3818000 15040000 81756000 253800 1302000 809700 2027000 9279000 1390000 763200 263000 2432000 247800 765800 446800 3167000 1707000 778200 1327000 1174000 1627000 1039000 249100 2407000 1462000 1310000 797900 274600 2676000 478400 308000 2275000 517300 715600 5209000 728700 2832000 1479000 238300 1947000 6767000 1715000 124700 1509000 1621000 502600
2022-05-07 6246000 30538000 3818000 3573000 6093000 43101000 6049000 7225000 5742000 3570000 3687000 17960000 3822000 15042000 81774000 253900 1303000 809700 2027000 9280000 1390000 763200 263100 2433000 248200 765900 446800 3168000 1707000 778300 1328000 1174000 1628000 1039000 249900 2409000 1462000 1310000 797900 274600 2676000 478800 308000 2278000 517300 715900 5215000 728900 2834000 1480000 238400 1947000 6769000 1715000 124800 1510000 1622000 502700
2022-05-08 6282000 30542000 3821000 3575000 6093000 43104000 6049000 7226000 5743000 3570000 3687000 17966000 3826000 15043000 81786000 254100 1303000 809800 2027000 9280000 1390000 763200 263200 2433000 248800 766000 446800 3168000 1707000 778300 1329000 1174000 1628000 1039000 250000 2410000 1462000 1310000 797900 274600 2676000 478900 308000 2280000 517400 716100 5221000 728900 2835000 1480000 238400 1947000 6770000 1716000 124900 1510000 1622000 502700
2022-05-09 6318000 30548000 3827000 3576000 6093000 43106000 6050000 7226000 5743000 3571000 3687000 17972000 3829000 15044000 81848000 254200 1303000 809800 2027000 9287000 1392000 764900 263500 2433000 249400 766100 446900 3173000 1708000 778400 1330000 1175000 1631000 1040000 250400 2411000 1463000 1310000 798300 274600 2676000 479000 309100 2282000 517800 716400 5228000 729900 2836000 1480000 238500 1947000 6773000 1719000 125400 1514000 1624000 503000
2022-05-10 6354000 30564000 3834000 3577000 6093000 43109000 6050000 7227000 5743000 3572000 3687000 17977000 3833000 15046000 81892000 254200 1303000 809900 2028000 9296000 1394000 766100 263700 2434000 249700 766200 446900 3176000 1708000 778600 1331000 1175000 1634000 1041000 250900 2413000 1465000 1311000 798500 274700 2677000 479600 309400 2284000 517900 716800 5234000 730900 2837000 1481000 238500 1947000 6775000 1720000 125600 1515000 1626000 503100
2022-05-11 6390000 30583000 3850000 3579000 6093000 43112000 6050000 7227000 5744000 3572000 3687000 17983000 3839000 15047000 81968000 255300 1304000 810100 2029000 9297000 1395000 767000 263900 2436000 251300 767300 447100 3179000 1709000 778700 1331000 1175000 1636000 1042000 251400 2421000 1466000 1311000 798500 274800 2685000 479800 309800 2286000 518000 717900 5241000 731900 2839000 1481000 238700 1948000 6776000 1721000 126100 1518000 1627000 503300

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed