COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-31


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-05-31

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-192022-01-262022-03-172022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-05-242022-01-172022-04-212022-04-052022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-05-182022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-05-182022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 36823 1234090 45422 49623 8686 19196 35043 233180 1848 139098 19594 141022 34255 8554 16215 9998 181768 321029 46977 25304 29129 39337 14275 22199 20182 36137
Days since peak 42 125 75 127 126 115 124 68 7 134 40 56 147 133 127 13 139 113 123 13 119 126 118 110 119 127
Last total 22300587 141778243 4288153 4152558 1165167 1883576 3920299 26360953 3136896 12326264 1092193 28703050 3453229 1136500 1917777 1561632 17421410 8169928 6007584 4683018 2909195 2507948 1025030 2542564 1433641 3674986
Last daily increment 5801 177443 1268 0 182 1008 293 54957 712 0 0 35084 5291 47 0 0 24687 1246 346 50918 491 0 387 219 379 6932
Last week 23612 674825 11819 4990 1045 1420 1201 162142 2816 88191 10968 105185 21231 1372 0 0 108978 5831 1286 138701 1985 0 1442 1055 1306 6932
Previous peak date2022-01-31 --2021-11-202021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032022-01-282021-07-262022-01-112022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-242022-01-112021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-312021-10-202021-01-052021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 711182 13991 17433 4795 326 18453 59358 44590 26576 8391 348862 893 178 10092 22914 6504 9508 23866 57881 14737 7921 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 18233 2167 5917 1340 94 4084 27573 220 1518 1374 47730 385 67 2306 694 2498 1257 11029 8937 301 217 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-05-31

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-03-312022-01-282022-04-132022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-05-212022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-01-172022-01-092022-05-122022-05-162022-04-122022-05-232022-05-202022-01-102022-05-182022-01-122022-01-242022-05-162022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-05-162022-05-232022-05-092022-01-192022-05-162022-01-042022-01-112022-01-242022-01-182022-01-182022-02-282022-01-182022-05-132022-01-182022-01-192022-05-162022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-01-102022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-05-162022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57217 182433 42056 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 21585 47146 33452 186181 20848 1726 792839 3942 27264 8269 45620 125201 4500 6622 438 560 61378 50131 1657 7905 2780 5839 15103 13009 12332 15200 3697 2247 677 33131 2075 12288 7671 2224 64056 2120 17291 7668 4923 10240 16695 9864 33258 17515 9944 27513 22082 5088 15568 60465 13669 20181 10786 20947 2305 5238 1601
Days since peak 61 123 48 112 136 130 103 112 54 132 135 108 170 10 137 132 135 138 134 142 19 15 49 8 11 141 13 139 127 15 134 137 133 137 15 8 22 132 15 147 140 127 133 133 92 133 18 133 132 15 136 132 133 141 133 132 133 138 133 141 89 133 15 148 133
Last total 7312408 31019038 3884792 3702941 6103455 43160832 6054973 7232034 5775977 3580960 3690581 18063880 3957777 15072747 84210808 259076 1314963 816164 2049627 9610212 1447753 806641 149638 275700 6098820 2463147 267602 776154 450957 3302331 1730761 786663 1352282 1190696 1709067 1085628 262871 2482698 1506328 1345567 805040 277497 2744935 244278 479287 321750 2391574 529226 728449 5437082 2763123 1047856 765448 2907324 1495762 239704 1965306 6869174 709854 1787756 129792 1570377 1675581 515925 158472
Last daily increment 35713 41377 2026 4274 0 2745 340 232 2981 613 130 3475 2806 975 198400 0 2526 199 0 43655 6411 2712 367 185 0 0 0 0 0 16033 0 0 7142 2146 6995 2204 327 0 2183 1340 0 0 0 0 1451 1296 2433 2144 0 23352 0 0 4645 0 0 0 0 18635 0 9943 0 0 1047 1972 611
Last week 194666 167847 14189 45753 4344 16012 1549 1152 16204 3719 1124 24960 16732 5963 489445 0 4450 1622 0 100747 21585 5416 1368 2905 0 0 0 0 620 28056 2943 178 7142 4214 13553 7506 1869 0 6627 7769 0 1305 0 183 2077 2521 24089 3767 0 42572 19546 2443 8239 0 0 0 0 30233 4517 17136 1511 7944 11214 3354 611
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-032022-02-042021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-01-032021-08-202022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-1511-032022-01-1711-112021-09-292022-01-102021-08-3011-192021-09-012021-08-092022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152021-11-212022-01-242021-08-032021-08-182021-09-272021-01-0211-132021-09-252021-11-022022-01-06 --12-082022-01-032021-09-162021-09-012021-08-2312-102021-09-1311-1012-132021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302022-01-172021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 109701 92852 40919 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19200 100070 163957 1338 5166 2236 8870 15426 24571 10476 3465 3036 121255 21932 4290 4320 1290 32479 5243 3270 4325 5922 21044 13446 8195 9297 12535 2608 3595 919 8935 1460 31640 2331 30365 2606 83161 6892 4762 2270 10036 5299 1356 8140 18451 1194 3687 1273 3420 55374 1847 555
Low between peaks 19599 2340 5057 968 1351 4447 143 1388 2342 60 -396 16444 96 770 70841 28 379 400 411 2884 788 315 -219 -649 437 284 56 54 236 986 1567 -83 1151 -8 563 268 114 1890 326 851 229 88 240 12 172 652 901 188 1575 3348 -7 396 156 369 9 173 3045 146 1215 52 772 318 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-01 to 2022-06-07

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-05-31 22300587 141778243 4288153 4152558 1165167 1883576 3920299 26360953 3136896 12326264 1092193 28703050 3453229 1136500 17421410 8169928 6007584 4683018 2909195 1025030 2542564 1433641 3674986
2022-06-01 22319000 142025000 4294000 4160000 1166000 1884000 3921000 26444000 3137000 12342000 1098000 28768000 3458000 1138000 17473000 8172000 6008000 4708000 2910000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3675000
2022-06-02 22330000 142216000 4299000 4165000 1166000 1885000 3921000 26489000 3138000 12368000 1111000 28818000 3463000 1138000 17514000 8175000 6009000 4712000 2911000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3675000
2022-06-03 22342000 142414000 4303000 4166000 1166000 1886000 3922000 26541000 3138000 12407000 1111000 28848000 3467000 1139000 17544000 8179000 6009000 4758000 2911000 1027000 2543000 1434000 3675000
2022-06-04 22348000 142492000 4304000 4168000 1166000 1886000 3922000 26548000 3138000 12416000 1115000 28887000 3470000 1139000 17567000 8183000 6009000 4759000 2911000 1027000 2543000 1434000 3675000
2022-06-05 22353000 142550000 4305000 4169000 1166000 1886000 3922000 26558000 3138000 12419000 1115000 28904000 3472000 1139000 17586000 8187000 6009000 4762000 2912000 1027000 2544000 1434000 3677000
2022-06-06 22380000 142640000 4309000 4176000 1167000 1886000 3922000 26614000 3138000 12419000 1115000 28911000 3474000 1139000 17587000 8192000 6009000 4787000 2912000 1027000 2544000 1435000 3677000
2022-06-07 22391000 142822000 4311000 4178000 1167000 1887000 3922000 26664000 3139000 12419000 1115000 28939000 3479000 1139000 17617000 8197000 6010000 4828000 2912000 1028000 2544000 1435000 3687000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-01 to 2022-06-07

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MNUS-MOUS-MTUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-31 7312408 31019038 3884792 3702941 6103455 43160832 6054973 7232034 5775977 3580960 3690581 18063880 3957777 15072747 84210808 1314963 816164 9610212 1447753 806641 149638 275700 450957 3302331 1730761 1352282 1190696 1709067 1085628 262871 1506328 1345567 277497 479287 321750 2391574 529226 5437082 2763123 1047856 765448 6869174 709854 1787756 129792 1570377 1675581 515925 158472
2022-06-01 7352000 31019000 3891000 3703000 6104000 43163000 6055000 7233000 5777000 3581000 3691000 18068000 3962000 15075000 84388000 1316000 816500 9610000 1448000 810600 150300 276200 451600 3310000 1735000 1354000 1191000 1715000 1090000 264100 1510000 1346000 277800 479800 322900 2398000 529300 5444000 2777000 1050000 767200 6879000 709900 1791000 129900 1580000 1679000 516300 159100
2022-06-02 7422000 31027000 3897000 3704000 6104000 43164000 6056000 7233000 5779000 3582000 3691000 18074000 3973000 15077000 84509000 1317000 816700 9633000 1454000 812900 150900 276800 451600 3317000 1735000 1354000 1192000 1720000 1093000 265000 1513000 1346000 277900 479900 323600 2404000 529600 5456000 2803000 1053000 768600 6889000 714500 1794000 130200 1580000 1682000 516800 159400
2022-06-03 7477000 31059000 3903000 3707000 6104000 43166000 6056000 7233000 5781000 3582000 3691000 18078000 3981000 15079000 84610000 1318000 817000 9644000 1456000 815000 151400 277400 452100 3322000 1738000 1355000 1192000 1724000 1096000 265600 1516000 1351000 279300 480000 324100 2409000 530200 5465000 2810000 1054000 770300 6901000 714500 1797000 130400 1588000 1684000 517300 159800
2022-06-04 7524000 31072000 3903000 3709000 6105000 43168000 6056000 7234000 5782000 3583000 3691000 18083000 3987000 15081000 84617000 1319000 817200 9644000 1456000 815500 151500 277400 452100 3322000 1738000 1357000 1192000 1724000 1096000 266200 1516000 1351000 279300 480000 324100 2414000 530200 5474000 2820000 1055000 770300 6909000 714500 1797000 130500 1588000 1684000 517300 160200
2022-06-05 7569000 31079000 3905000 3712000 6105000 43170000 6056000 7234000 5783000 3583000 3691000 18087000 3993000 15082000 84625000 1320000 817400 9644000 1456000 816000 151600 277400 452100 3323000 1738000 1360000 1193000 1725000 1096000 266300 1516000 1351000 279600 480300 324100 2415000 530200 5483000 2831000 1055000 770400 6918000 714500 1797000 130600 1588000 1684000 517300 160600
2022-06-06 7610000 31099000 3905000 3714000 6105000 43172000 6056000 7234000 5795000 3584000 3692000 18091000 3997000 15083000 84686000 1321000 817400 9665000 1457000 817400 151600 278800 452400 3328000 1740000 1360000 1193000 1727000 1096000 266400 1517000 1351000 279800 480700 324600 2420000 530600 5490000 2839000 1056000 771500 6927000 714500 1800000 130700 1590000 1688000 517700 161000
2022-06-07 7649000 31129000 3907000 3718000 6106000 43174000 6057000 7234000 5796000 3584000 3692000 18096000 4001000 15084000 84839000 1323000 817600 9696000 1461000 819000 152000 279000 452400 3339000 1740000 1361000 1194000 1733000 1100000 266900 1519000 1351000 279800 481500 325800 2423000 532100 5498000 2839000 1056000 774600 6937000 714500 1806000 130800 1590000 1691000 519000 161200

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-01 to 2022-06-07

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-05-31 22300587 141778243 4288153 4152558 1165167 1883576 3920299 26360953 3136896 12326264 1092193 28703050 3453229 1136500 17421410 8169928 6007584 4683018 2909195 1025030 2542564 1433641 3674986
2022-06-01 22305000 141919000 4290000 4156000 1165000 1884000 3920000 26395000 3137000 12322000 1093000 28737000 3457000 1137000 17443000 8172000 6008000 4716000 2910000 1025000 2543000 1434000 3674000
2022-06-02 22311000 142049000 4294000 4160000 1166000 1884000 3921000 26422000 3138000 12347000 1106000 28765000 3461000 1138000 17466000 8175000 6008000 4724000 2910000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3674000
2022-06-03 22320000 142215000 4296000 4160000 1166000 1885000 3921000 26454000 3138000 12382000 1107000 28776000 3465000 1138000 17487000 8179000 6008000 4767000 2910000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3674000
2022-06-04 22323000 142261000 4297000 4161000 1166000 1885000 3921000 26456000 3139000 12391000 1109000 28800000 3468000 1138000 17506000 8183000 6009000 4770000 2911000 1026000 2543000 1435000 3674000
2022-06-05 22331000 142302000 4299000 4162000 1166000 1885000 3921000 26472000 3139000 12394000 1109000 28811000 3471000 1139000 17522000 8187000 6009000 4775000 2911000 1026000 2544000 1435000 3675000
2022-06-06 22359000 142416000 4302000 4171000 1166000 1885000 3922000 26539000 3139000 12398000 1110000 28818000 3473000 1139000 17528000 8191000 6009000 4799000 2911000 1027000 2544000 1435000 3675000
2022-06-07 22372000 142602000 4304000 4171000 1166000 1886000 3922000 26599000 3140000 12410000 1111000 28836000 3478000 1139000 17562000 8196000 6009000 4836000 2912000 1027000 2544000 1435000 3680000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-01 to 2022-06-07

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MNUS-MOUS-MTUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-31 7312408 31019038 3884792 3702941 6103455 43160832 6054973 7232034 5775977 3580960 3690581 18063880 3957777 15072747 84210808 1314963 816164 9610212 1447753 806641 149638 275700 450957 3302331 1730761 1352282 1190696 1709067 1085628 262871 1506328 1345567 277497 479287 321750 2391574 529226 5437082 2763123 1047856 765448 6869174 709854 1787756 129792 1570377 1675581 515925 158472
2022-06-01 7353000 31037000 3889000 3709000 6104000 43163000 6055000 7232000 5778000 3582000 3691000 18068000 3962000 15074000 84404000 1316000 816600 9619000 1450000 808300 149900 276100 451400 3308000 1733000 1353000 1192000 1712000 1087000 263300 1507000 1346000 277600 479900 322100 2396000 530100 5448000 2765000 1048000 767700 6876000 709900 1791000 129900 1574000 1678000 516600 158600
2022-06-02 7401000 31055000 3893000 3716000 6106000 43165000 6056000 7232000 5779000 3582000 3691000 18072000 3967000 15075000 84519000 1316000 816800 9642000 1458000 810100 150500 276700 451400 3314000 1733000 1353000 1193000 1716000 1089000 263900 1510000 1346000 277600 480100 322700 2401000 530700 5457000 2783000 1051000 769200 6881000 713400 1794000 130500 1574000 1680000 517200 158700
2022-06-03 7444000 31091000 3898000 3724000 6106000 43167000 6056000 7233000 5779000 3582000 3691000 18076000 3973000 15076000 84616000 1317000 817100 9654000 1460000 811800 150900 277300 451800 3319000 1735000 1354000 1193000 1719000 1092000 264500 1512000 1352000 278600 480300 323100 2406000 531400 5466000 2784000 1051000 770900 6886000 713900 1798000 130700 1581000 1683000 517800 158700
2022-06-04 7484000 31106000 3899000 3730000 6106000 43169000 6056000 7233000 5780000 3583000 3691000 18080000 3978000 15077000 84627000 1318000 817400 9656000 1460000 811900 151100 277300 451800 3319000 1735000 1354000 1194000 1720000 1092000 265000 1512000 1352000 278600 480500 323100 2410000 531500 5472000 2785000 1051000 771000 6888000 714000 1798000 130700 1581000 1683000 517900 158800
2022-06-05 7523000 31118000 3900000 3737000 6106000 43171000 6056000 7233000 5780000 3583000 3691000 18084000 3982000 15078000 84630000 1318000 817600 9657000 1460000 812600 151100 277300 451800 3320000 1735000 1355000 1194000 1720000 1092000 265100 1512000 1352000 278700 480600 323100 2413000 531500 5479000 2786000 1051000 771000 6890000 714000 1798000 130800 1582000 1683000 517900 158800
2022-06-06 7561000 31130000 3901000 3742000 6106000 43173000 6056000 7233000 5788000 3584000 3691000 18088000 3985000 15079000 84717000 1319000 817600 9680000 1461000 814600 151100 278600 451900 3329000 1736000 1357000 1194000 1726000 1093000 265400 1513000 1352000 278700 481000 324000 2417000 531900 5488000 2788000 1052000 772800 6892000 714000 1802000 131000 1586000 1686000 518600 158900
2022-06-07 7599000 31152000 3904000 3746000 6107000 43174000 6057000 7233000 5789000 3584000 3692000 18092000 3990000 15080000 84813000 1319000 817800 9696000 1463000 816300 151600 278800 451900 3335000 1736000 1359000 1195000 1729000 1097000 266000 1517000 1352000 278700 481300 325100 2421000 532600 5494000 2788000 1052000 775000 6897000 714100 1806000 131100 1587000 1690000 519400 159200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed