COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-06-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-06-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-192022-01-262022-03-172022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-05-242022-01-172022-04-212022-04-052022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-05-182022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-05-272022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 36823 1233939 45423 49623 8686 19196 35043 233181 1596 139098 19594 141022 34255 8554 16049 10265 181769 330791 46977 25986 29129 40109 14275 22199 20182 36137
Days since peak 51 134 84 136 135 124 133 77 16 143 49 65 156 142 136 22 148 122 132 13 128 135 127 119 128 136
Last total 22373146 142937174 4311116 4170252 1166589 1893012 3922254 26738530 3142483 12436538 1114573 28917357 3487775 1139034 1921486 1570519 17589595 8099519 6009479 4894982 2911877 2510930 1027524 2544255 1436118 3685281
Last daily increment 10079 171752 3034 5554 113 1936 410 77878 912 0 9362 38227 4500 332 0 0 23534 2429 274 0 341 1564 690 262 606 0
Last week 67253 762699 15298 11498 862 4220 1239 245295 3805 33293 9362 147641 23109 1437 1646 4549 121953 9282 1184 119453 1796 1564 1611 1095 1465 10295
Previous peak date2022-01-31 --2021-11-202021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032022-01-282021-07-262022-01-112022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-312021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 711182 13991 17433 4795 326 18453 59358 44590 26576 8391 348863 893 178 10224 23008 6504 9508 23866 57881 14737 1245 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 18233 2167 5917 1340 94 4084 27573 279 1518 1374 47730 385 67 1865 894 2498 1257 11029 8937 301 534 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-06-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-03-312022-01-282022-04-132022-05-282022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-03-312022-01-092022-05-122022-05-162022-04-122022-05-232022-05-202022-01-102022-05-252022-01-122022-01-242022-05-092022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-05-092022-05-232022-05-092022-05-042022-05-092022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-182022-02-282022-01-182022-05-132022-05-302022-01-192022-05-092022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-05-112022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-05-092022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57218 182433 42056 7408 30553 300525 53848 35342 21585 47146 33452 186181 20848 99390 792838 2786 27264 8269 4418 125203 3823 7074 438 538 41227 46066 1565 7758 2780 5910 15103 13928 12332 15200 3942 2203 785 5232 2204 12288 7895 2224 59694 2121 17291 7668 5082 618 16077 9992 33258 17515 9944 8211 19407 5132 15649 60465 13669 20181 10786 20947 2337 5238 1601
Days since peak 70 132 57 12 145 139 112 121 63 141 144 117 179 125 146 141 144 147 70 151 28 24 58 17 20 150 15 148 136 31 143 146 142 146 31 17 31 36 31 156 157 136 142 142 101 142 27 10 141 31 145 141 142 29 142 141 142 147 142 150 98 142 31 157 142
Last total 7571629 31360850 3908292 3783945 6117847 43205106 6056017 7233319 5802672 3587906 3692336 18097767 3975062 15072747 85329656 263421 1324178 821120 2077346 9737165 1480532 813092 152252 277930 6237445 2494759 283574 784302 454576 3346738 1745120 794533 1362044 1201494 1727145 1105840 265545 2520378 1524282 1355997 811833 278993 2799515 245476 481473 324818 2425321 537069 742375 5499055 2798900 1054803 779983 2954750 1514423 241326 1985892 6930072 720533 1814665 131853 1596807 1694026 521543 159707
Last daily increment 29548 45073 2314 12436 8742 7584 0 202 0 764 252 3713 1976 0 115620 0 1221 638 0 4803 13931 676 274 0 0 52 0 0 0 4285 0 0 0 1454 1961 1756 327 0 1810 479 0 0 0 0 0 329 3740 1136 0 6639 18247 3893 2284 0 0 0 0 8270 6073 3299 0 0 2049 647 0
Last week 166087 223371 12401 54039 8742 32559 0 705 20267 4503 1222 21481 9640 0 605327 2332 7149 3194 14677 79348 25780 3713 1469 1207 0 17310 7943 4284 1658 27865 6277 4674 9762 6263 10846 9937 1522 18304 9381 2847 6793 1496 26790 0 2186 1781 20696 6309 6744 36914 18247 3893 9790 22564 9456 969 10664 39974 6073 16965 927 8434 10762 3482 1235
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292022-02-082021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-0312-102021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132022-01-172021-08-202022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-152021-08-302022-01-192021-11-022021-09-292022-01-102021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152022-01-192022-01-242021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-1311-132021-09-252021-11-022022-01-062022-01-182021-09-132022-01-032021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232022-01-112021-09-062021-09-132021-09-102021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302022-01-172021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 109702 92852 40919 36050 29569 90762 46421 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19199 750376 163957 1313 5166 2236 44245 15426 24571 10476 3465 3036 121256 8907 4415 2877 1290 32479 5243 1581 4325 5922 21044 13446 8195 32109 12535 2608 3631 919 6936 1460 31640 2331 30365 10240 1142 83161 6892 4762 2270 27642 5397 461 8111 18451 1194 3687 1273 3420 55374 1847 555
Low between peaks 19599 2340 5057 1924 1351 4447 166 1388 2342 60 -396 16444 96 5092 70841 44 379 400 584 2885 860 315 -219 -649 437 738 63 -448 236 986 1567 742 1151 -8 563 268 114 514 326 851 83 88 1585 12 172 652 901 111 408 1575 3348 -7 396 581 -39 175 957 3045 146 1215 52 772 318 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-10 to 2022-06-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-06-09 22373146 142937174 4311116 4170252 1166589 1893012 3922254 26738530 3142483 12436538 1114573 28917357 3487775 1139034 1921486 1570519 17589595 8099519 6009479 4894982 2911877 2510930 1027524 2544255 1436118 3685281
2022-06-10 22373000 143054000 4313000 4170000 1167000 1893000 3923000 26753000 3143000 12481000 1115000 28917000 3491000 1139000 1924000 1573000 17607000 8102000 6010000 4943000 2912000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1436000 3685000
2022-06-11 22374000 143113000 4313000 4171000 1167000 1893000 3923000 26753000 3143000 12487000 1117000 28936000 3494000 1140000 1925000 1576000 17633000 8104000 6010000 4945000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1436000 3685000
2022-06-12 22378000 143151000 4313000 4171000 1167000 1893000 3923000 26753000 3143000 12487000 1118000 28950000 3496000 1140000 1925000 1578000 17650000 8107000 6010000 4945000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1436000 3685000
2022-06-13 22412000 143208000 4320000 4174000 1167000 1893000 3923000 26770000 3143000 12487000 1118000 28950000 3499000 1140000 1927000 1580000 17659000 8111000 6010000 4954000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1437000 3685000
2022-06-14 22423000 143423000 4321000 4178000 1168000 1894000 3923000 26836000 3144000 12506000 1120000 28964000 3504000 1140000 1928000 1583000 17682000 8115000 6011000 5012000 2913000 2511000 1029000 2545000 1437000 3693000
2022-06-15 22440000 143614000 4323000 4179000 1168000 1895000 3923000 26898000 3145000 12510000 1120000 29004000 3508000 1141000 1931000 1585000 17701000 8120000 6011000 5053000 2914000 2511000 1029000 2545000 1437000 3693000
2022-06-16 22451000 143763000 4326000 4182000 1168000 1896000 3924000 26954000 3145000 12516000 1140000 29034000 3512000 1141000 1931000 1587000 17721000 8125000 6011000 5059000 2914000 2513000 1030000 2546000 1438000 3694000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-10 to 2022-06-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-06-09 7571629 31360850 3908292 3783945 6117847 43205106 7233319 5802672 3587906 3692336 18097767 3975062 85329656 263421 1324178 821120 2077346 9737165 1480532 813092 152252 277930 2494759 283574 784302 454576 3346738 1745120 794533 1362044 1201494 1727145 1105840 265545 2520378 1524282 1355997 811833 278993 2799515 481473 324818 2425321 537069 742375 5499055 2798900 1054803 779983 2954750 1514423 241326 1985892 6930072 720533 1814665 131853 1596807 1694026 521543 159707
2022-06-10 7600000 31362000 3913000 3785000 6133000 43211000 7234000 5803000 3588000 3693000 18101000 3983000 85472000 265600 1325000 821600 2083000 9761000 1481000 816000 152600 279300 2495000 290100 788600 455500 3354000 1747000 794500 1365000 1203000 1733000 1110000 266400 2531000 1527000 1361000 813600 279000 2824000 481600 326000 2432000 540400 744500 5506000 2819000 1061000 781400 2959000 1514000 241400 1986000 6937000 720500 1820000 132100 1607000 1698000 522400 159700
2022-06-11 7632000 31362000 3915000 3789000 6140000 43216000 7234000 5803000 3589000 3693000 18105000 3988000 85488000 266400 1325000 822000 2086000 9762000 1481000 816800 152900 279500 2495000 293500 789400 455500 3354000 1747000 794500 1368000 1204000 1734000 1110000 267100 2538000 1527000 1361000 815000 279000 2832000 482500 326200 2437000 541700 744500 5517000 2826000 1063000 781500 2960000 1514000 241400 1986000 6942000 720900 1820000 132100 1607000 1698000 522400 159700
2022-06-12 7662000 31362000 3916000 3795000 6148000 43222000 7234000 5803000 3589000 3693000 18108000 3991000 85501000 267300 1325000 822300 2089000 9762000 1481000 817100 152900 279600 2495000 296700 790000 455500 3355000 1747000 794500 1370000 1204000 1734000 1110000 267200 2542000 1527000 1361000 816500 279000 2841000 482600 326300 2440000 542900 744500 5525000 2833000 1065000 781500 2961000 1514000 241400 1986000 6947000 720900 1820000 132200 1607000 1698000 522400 159700
2022-06-13 7690000 31374000 3917000 3801000 6156000 43227000 7234000 5809000 3590000 3693000 18111000 3991000 85609000 267500 1325000 822400 2093000 9786000 1483000 818700 152900 280800 2495000 300900 790900 455900 3365000 1747000 794500 1382000 1206000 1739000 1112000 267400 2548000 1528000 1361000 823700 279000 2841000 483400 327200 2443000 545300 744500 5533000 2841000 1067000 784600 2964000 1514000 241400 1986000 6953000 721100 1826000 132200 1613000 1702000 523700 159700
2022-06-14 7719000 31419000 3920000 3806000 6165000 43232000 7234000 5810000 3590000 3693000 18115000 3995000 85725000 268800 1326000 822800 2099000 9822000 1486000 820400 153500 281100 2495000 306300 792300 455900 3371000 1747000 794500 1386000 1208000 1742000 1116000 268100 2556000 1532000 1362000 823700 279700 2852000 483800 327900 2447000 547400 744500 5540000 2849000 1070000 786700 2965000 1520000 241400 1986000 6956000 722000 1830000 132300 1613000 1705000 524500 160800
2022-06-15 7746000 31461000 3924000 3815000 6173000 43238000 7234000 5810000 3591000 3693000 18118000 3996000 85934000 272100 1326000 823400 2116000 9828000 1488000 821200 153900 281100 2501000 317800 792300 455900 3376000 1748000 797900 1389000 1209000 1743000 1119000 268400 2580000 1533000 1362000 824600 279700 2888000 483900 328200 2450000 549000 748200 5547000 2857000 1072000 788400 2989000 1522000 241400 1988000 6963000 722000 1832000 133100 1615000 1707000 525000 160800
2022-06-16 7774000 31495000 3926000 3825000 6175000 43243000 7234000 5810000 3591000 3693000 18121000 3998000 86047000 272100 1327000 823900 2116000 9835000 1498000 822000 154200 281200 2502000 317800 792300 455900 3380000 1749000 797900 1389000 1211000 1745000 1120000 268800 2580000 1535000 1363000 824600 279700 2888000 483900 328500 2454000 549600 748200 5554000 2865000 1072000 790300 2989000 1522000 241500 1989000 6970000 731200 1834000 133300 1615000 1709000 525600 161100

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-10 to 2022-06-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-06-09 22373146 142937174 4311116 4170252 1166589 1893012 3922254 26738530 3142483 12436538 1114573 28917357 3487775 1139034 1921486 1570519 17589595 8099519 6009479 4894982 2911877 2510930 1027524 2544255 1436118 3685281
2022-06-10 22380000 143100000 4314000 4171000 1167000 1894000 3922000 26791000 3143000 12473000 1114000 28939000 3492000 1139000 1922000 1572000 17605000 8102000 6010000 4929000 2912000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1436000 3686000
2022-06-11 22382000 143151000 4314000 4171000 1167000 1894000 3923000 26793000 3143000 12478000 1114000 28959000 3495000 1140000 1922000 1573000 17625000 8106000 6010000 4930000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1437000 3686000
2022-06-12 22385000 143183000 4314000 4172000 1167000 1894000 3923000 26799000 3143000 12479000 1115000 28976000 3497000 1140000 1922000 1574000 17638000 8110000 6010000 4931000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1437000 3686000
2022-06-13 22417000 143232000 4320000 4174000 1167000 1894000 3923000 26821000 3144000 12479000 1115000 28978000 3500000 1140000 1922000 1574000 17643000 8114000 6010000 4939000 2913000 2511000 1028000 2545000 1437000 3686000
2022-06-14 22427000 143407000 4322000 4177000 1167000 1895000 3923000 26879000 3145000 12495000 1115000 28993000 3504000 1140000 1923000 1575000 17667000 8119000 6010000 4997000 2913000 2511000 1029000 2545000 1437000 3694000
2022-06-15 22438000 143578000 4323000 4178000 1167000 1896000 3923000 26927000 3145000 12504000 1116000 29023000 3508000 1140000 1924000 1578000 17684000 8124000 6011000 5032000 2914000 2512000 1029000 2545000 1437000 3694000
2022-06-16 22443000 143703000 4325000 4181000 1168000 1896000 3923000 26955000 3146000 12512000 1125000 29041000 3511000 1141000 1924000 1579000 17699000 8129000 6011000 5049000 2914000 2513000 1029000 2545000 1438000 3694000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-10 to 2022-06-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-06-09 7571629 31360850 3908292 3783945 6117847 43205106 7233319 5802672 3587906 3692336 18097767 3975062 85329656 263421 1324178 821120 2077346 9737165 1480532 813092 152252 277930 2494759 283574 784302 454576 3346738 1745120 794533 1362044 1201494 1727145 1105840 265545 2520378 1524282 1355997 811833 278993 2799515 481473 324818 2425321 537069 742375 5499055 2798900 1054803 779983 2954750 1514423 241326 1985892 6930072 720533 1814665 131853 1596807 1694026 521543 159707
2022-06-10 7598000 31406000 3912000 3793000 6121000 43210000 7233000 5803000 3589000 3693000 18101000 3978000 85472000 263800 1325000 821900 2079000 9750000 1485000 814000 152500 278400 2496000 284500 784700 455200 3352000 1748000 794900 1363000 1203000 1730000 1108000 265900 2522000 1526000 1362000 812300 279200 2803000 481400 325400 2430000 537900 742800 5506000 2802000 1056000 781500 2954000 1515000 241400 1989000 6938000 721000 1819000 132000 1604000 1697000 522300 159800
2022-06-11 7620000 31415000 3913000 3801000 6122000 43215000 7234000 5806000 3589000 3693000 18105000 3983000 85489000 264100 1325000 822300 2079000 9751000 1485000 814200 152700 278400 2496000 284900 785000 455400 3352000 1748000 795100 1363000 1203000 1730000 1108000 266200 2524000 1526000 1362000 812700 279200 2806000 482300 325500 2435000 538300 743300 5511000 2803000 1056000 781500 2955000 1515000 241500 1991000 6943000 721100 1819000 132100 1604000 1697000 522300 159900
2022-06-12 7642000 31422000 3913000 3808000 6123000 43219000 7234000 5807000 3590000 3693000 18109000 3986000 85500000 264400 1326000 822600 2080000 9752000 1485000 814300 152700 278500 2496000 285400 785400 455600 3352000 1748000 795100 1363000 1203000 1730000 1108000 266300 2525000 1526000 1362000 813100 279200 2810000 482500 325500 2438000 538600 743700 5517000 2804000 1057000 781600 2955000 1516000 241600 1992000 6948000 721100 1819000 132100 1604000 1697000 522300 160000
2022-06-13 7665000 31456000 3914000 3814000 6124000 43223000 7234000 5812000 3590000 3693000 18112000 3987000 85604000 264400 1327000 822700 2081000 9773000 1489000 815300 152700 279500 2497000 286100 785800 456000 3362000 1750000 795200 1371000 1205000 1733000 1110000 266400 2526000 1527000 1362000 819400 279200 2810000 483100 326100 2441000 540400 743800 5524000 2806000 1057000 784500 2956000 1517000 241600 1994000 6953000 721200 1824000 132300 1610000 1701000 523600 160100
2022-06-14 7688000 31502000 3917000 3818000 6125000 43227000 7234000 5815000 3591000 3693000 18115000 3990000 85702000 264600 1328000 823200 2082000 9806000 1492000 816500 153100 279800 2498000 286700 786200 456100 3368000 1750000 795200 1373000 1206000 1736000 1113000 266900 2528000 1530000 1362000 819500 279800 2812000 483600 326800 2445000 541600 743900 5530000 2807000 1057000 786500 2956000 1523000 241700 1995000 6958000 721400 1828000 132300 1610000 1703000 524300 160800
2022-06-15 7711000 31534000 3920000 3825000 6126000 43231000 7234000 5817000 3591000 3693000 18118000 3993000 85906000 266600 1329000 823600 2093000 9809000 1494000 817500 153500 280100 2508000 294700 788400 456500 3372000 1752000 797600 1373000 1207000 1738000 1117000 267400 2544000 1531000 1363000 819800 279900 2837000 483800 327200 2448000 542400 748400 5536000 2808000 1058000 788200 2975000 1525000 242200 1997000 6964000 721500 1831000 132900 1613000 1705000 524900 161000
2022-06-16 7734000 31564000 3922000 3833000 6129000 43236000 7234000 5818000 3592000 3693000 18122000 3996000 86024000 266700 1330000 824100 2093000 9828000 1500000 818300 153800 280500 2510000 294700 789100 456600 3377000 1753000 797800 1373000 1208000 1740000 1118000 267800 2544000 1534000 1363000 819800 279900 2839000 483900 327400 2452000 543200 749100 5542000 2822000 1060000 789900 2976000 1526000 242300 1999000 6971000 726000 1834000 133100 1614000 1707000 525600 161100

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed