COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-04-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Deaths count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLSECH
2020-04-01 2352 30600 828 920 9387 4032 13155 1173 239 488
2020-04-02 2760 33800 960 1050 10300 4530 14100 1320 280 550
2020-04-03 3070 37400 1080 1170 11300 4960 15200 1460 300 600
2020-04-04 3420 41400 1210 1310 12400 5440 16300 1620 330 660
2020-04-05 3810 45800 1360 1460 13600 5970 17600 1800 360 720
2020-04-06 4260 50600 1540 1640 14900 6560 19000 1990 400 790

Deaths count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateBrazilIranUSUS-CAUS-LAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-01 240 3036 4757 212 273 336 355 1941 249 55024
2020-04-02 270 3190 5540 240 310 400 420 2300 260 61200
2020-04-03 300 3380 6260 260 330 450 460 2640 280 68000
2020-04-04 320 3570 7080 280 350 510 520 3030 290 75400
2020-04-05 350 3780 8010 300 380 590 570 3490 310 83600
2020-04-06 380 3990 9080 320 400 670 640 4030 330 92800

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLSECH
2020-04-01 2352 30600 828 920 9387 4032 13155 1173 239 488
2020-04-02 2720 33600 920 1010 10100 4570 14100 1280 270 540
2020-04-03 3190 37000 1030 1110 11000 5160 15100 1410 310 600
2020-04-04 3720 40700 1160 1230 12000 5820 16300 1560 350 670
2020-04-05 4330 44800 1300 1350 13100 6550 17500 1710 400 740
2020-04-06 5030 49400 1460 1490 14200 7370 18800 1890 450 820

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateBrazilIranUSUS-CAUS-LAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-01 240 3036 4757 212 273 336 355 1941 249 55024
2020-04-02 260 3200 5410 230 290 380 420 2280 260 61400
2020-04-03 290 3380 6210 250 300 440 490 2680 280 68200
2020-04-04 320 3570 7160 270 330 500 580 3140 300 75700
2020-04-05 350 3780 8210 300 350 570 680 3650 320 83700
2020-04-06 380 3990 9400 320 370 650 800 4250 330 92700

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths