COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-04-02


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Deaths count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-03 to 2020-04-07

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLPTSECH
2020-04-02 2921 34407 1011 1107 10348 5387 13915 1339 209 308 536
2020-04-03 3420 38100 1180 1270 11300 6120 14800 1490 230 360 590
2020-04-04 3850 42000 1340 1410 12400 6710 15900 1640 250 390 650
2020-04-05 4350 46400 1510 1570 13600 7360 17100 1810 270 430 710
2020-04-06 4900 51200 1720 1750 14900 8090 18400 1990 290 480 770
2020-04-07 5550 56600 1950 1960 16300 8910 19800 2180 320 530 850

Deaths count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-03 to 2020-04-07

DateBrazilIranUSWorld
2020-04-02 324 3160 5926 62407
2020-04-03 370 3320 6900 70000
2020-04-04 400 3500 7800 77000
2020-04-05 440 3690 8800 86000
2020-04-06 480 3900 9900 95000
2020-04-07 520 4120 11200 106000

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-03 to 2020-04-07

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITNLPTSECH
2020-04-02 2921 34407 1011 1107 10348 5387 13915 1339 209 308 536
2020-04-03 3350 37900 1180 1240 11200 5740 14700 1460 220 350 560
2020-04-04 3840 42000 1370 1390 12200 6490 15600 1610 240 390 600
2020-04-05 4420 46500 1590 1550 13200 7340 16600 1770 260 440 640
2020-04-06 5060 51500 1830 1720 14400 8280 17600 1940 270 490 680
2020-04-07 5800 57100 2100 1910 15700 9340 18800 2130 290 540 720

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-03 to 2020-04-07

DateBrazilIranUSWorld
2020-04-02 324 3160 5926 62407
2020-04-03 360 3320 6700 70000
2020-04-04 410 3490 7600 78000
2020-04-05 480 3670 8700 87000
2020-04-06 550 3860 9900 97000
2020-04-07 630 4060 11300 109000

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths