COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-06-10


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-11 to 2020-06-17

DateUKEUBEDEFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-10 41128 128856 9629 8752 29260 1695 34114 6042 1206 1497 1360 4795
2020-06-11 41300 129000 9640 8760 29300 1700 34200 6050 1210 1500 1370 4800
2020-06-12 41400 129000 9660 8780 29300 1700 34300 6050 1220 1510 1380 4820
2020-06-13 41600 130000 9670 8800 29400 1710 34300 6060 1220 1520 1380 4850
2020-06-14 41800 130000 9690 8820 29400 1710 34400 6070 1230 1520 1390 4880
2020-06-15 42000 130000 9710 8840 29500 1720 34500 6080 1250 1530 1400 4910
2020-06-16 42200 130000 9720 8860 29500 1720 34500 6090 1260 1540 1410 4950
2020-06-17 42400 131000 9740 8880 29600 1730 34600 6090 1270 1540 1420 4980

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-11 to 2020-06-17

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-10 39680 8038 2475 1439 7745 1959 8506 15357 5903 1027 6350 1210 4746 112924 739 1099 4854 1572 4118 499 413 2801 2291 631 6094 2173 484 2855 7443 2801 5881 1236 823 868 1090 301 12377 409 30542 2459 6062 575 432 1905 1514 1176 671
2020-06-11 40100 8080 2650 1500 7900 2010 8550 15500 6080 1030 6420 1260 4760 113000 740 1110 4870 1580 4130 500 420 2810 2300 640 6130 2190 490 2870 7470 2820 5910 1250 830 870 1090 300 12500 410 30600 2470 6080 580 430 1910 1520 1180 670
2020-06-12 40600 8130 2960 1570 8130 2060 8620 15800 6270 1040 6560 1320 4780 114000 750 1120 4910 1580 4150 510 420 2830 2320 640 6170 2200 490 2880 7510 2840 5950 1270 830 880 1100 300 12600 420 30700 2480 6120 590 440 1920 1530 1190 680
2020-06-13 41400 8180 3330 1640 8360 2110 8680 16100 6470 1040 6710 1390 4800 115000 760 1130 4960 1590 4170 510 420 2850 2330 650 6220 2220 490 2890 7550 2870 5990 1290 830 890 1110 310 12700 420 30700 2500 6150 600 440 1940 1540 1190 680
2020-06-14 42200 8230 3780 1710 8600 2160 8750 16500 6680 1050 6860 1470 4820 115000 770 1140 5010 1600 4190 510 430 2880 2340 660 6280 2240 490 2910 7580 2890 6020 1310 840 900 1120 310 12800 420 30800 2520 6190 600 450 1950 1540 1200 690
2020-06-15 43100 8280 4330 1790 8850 2220 8810 16900 6890 1060 7010 1540 4840 116000 780 1160 5060 1610 4200 520 430 2900 2360 670 6330 2260 500 2920 7620 2920 6060 1330 840 910 1130 310 12900 430 30900 2540 6220 610 450 1970 1550 1200 690
2020-06-16 44000 8330 5000 1870 9120 2280 8880 17300 7110 1060 7170 1630 4860 117000 790 1170 5120 1620 4220 520 440 2930 2370 670 6390 2270 500 2930 7660 2940 6100 1350 850 920 1140 310 13000 430 30900 2560 6260 620 460 1990 1560 1210 700
2020-06-17 44900 8380 5730 1950 9390 2340 8950 17800 7340 1070 7340 1710 4880 118000 800 1190 5180 1630 4240 520 440 2960 2390 680 6440 2290 500 2950 7700 2970 6140 1370 860 930 1150 320 13100 430 31000 2580 6300 630 460 2000 1580 1210 710

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-11 to 2020-06-17

DateUKEUBEDEFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-10 41128 128856 9629 8752 29260 1695 34114 6042 1206 1497 1360 4795
2020-06-11 41300 129000 9640 8770 29300 1700 34200 6050 1220 1500 1370 4830
2020-06-12 41500 129000 9660 8790 29400 1710 34300 6060 1230 1510 1380 4870
2020-06-13 41700 130000 9670 8820 29400 1710 34300 6070 1240 1510 1390 4910
2020-06-14 41900 130000 9690 8830 29400 1720 34400 6080 1260 1520 1390 4950
2020-06-15 42100 130000 9700 8850 29500 1720 34500 6090 1270 1530 1400 4990
2020-06-16 42300 130000 9720 8870 29500 1730 34600 6100 1290 1530 1410 5030
2020-06-17 42500 131000 9730 8890 29600 1730 34600 6110 1300 1540 1420 5070

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-11 to 2020-06-17

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-10 39680 8038 2475 1439 7745 1959 8506 15357 5903 1027 6350 1210 4746 112924 739 1099 4854 1572 4118 499 413 2801 2291 631 6094 2173 484 2855 7443 2801 5881 1236 823 868 1090 301 12377 409 30542 2459 6062 575 432 1905 1514 1176 671
2020-06-11 40600 8100 2630 1500 7830 2020 8580 15900 6080 1030 6490 1280 4770 114000 750 1110 4910 1580 4140 500 420 2830 2320 640 6150 2190 490 2870 7480 2830 5930 1250 830 880 1100 300 12500 410 30600 2480 6100 580 440 1920 1530 1180 680
2020-06-12 41600 8160 2800 1570 7920 2070 8640 16400 6260 1040 6650 1350 4780 114000 760 1130 4980 1590 4160 510 420 2860 2340 650 6200 2200 490 2880 7520 2850 5960 1270 830 890 1110 300 12600 420 30700 2500 6140 590 440 1940 1540 1190 680
2020-06-13 42500 8220 2930 1630 8010 2130 8710 16800 6450 1050 6810 1410 4800 115000 780 1140 5040 1600 4180 510 430 2890 2370 650 6260 2220 500 2890 7560 2880 6000 1290 840 900 1120 310 12700 420 30700 2530 6170 590 440 1960 1550 1190 690
2020-06-14 43500 8270 3060 1690 8110 2180 8780 17300 6650 1060 6970 1480 4820 116000 790 1160 5110 1620 4190 510 430 2920 2390 660 6320 2230 500 2900 7600 2900 6030 1310 850 920 1140 310 12900 430 30800 2550 6210 600 450 1980 1560 1200 700
2020-06-15 44400 8330 3190 1760 8210 2240 8850 17900 6860 1060 7130 1560 4840 117000 800 1180 5170 1630 4210 520 440 2950 2420 670 6380 2250 510 2910 7640 2930 6060 1330 860 930 1150 320 13000 430 30900 2570 6240 600 450 2000 1570 1200 700
2020-06-16 45400 8390 3340 1830 8310 2300 8910 18400 7070 1070 7300 1640 4860 117000 810 1190 5240 1640 4230 520 440 2980 2450 670 6430 2270 510 2930 7680 2960 6100 1350 860 940 1160 320 13200 430 30900 2590 6280 610 450 2020 1580 1210 710
2020-06-17 46500 8450 3480 1900 8410 2370 8980 18900 7290 1080 7470 1720 4870 118000 830 1210 5310 1650 4250 520 450 3010 2470 680 6490 2280 510 2940 7720 2980 6130 1370 870 950 1170 320 13300 440 31000 2620 6310 620 460 2050 1600 1210 720

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-11 to 2020-06-19

DateUKEUBEDEFRIEITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-10 41128 128856 9629 8752 29260 1695 34114 6042 1206 1497 1360 4795 39680 8038 2475 1439 7745 1959 8506 15357 5903 1027 6350 1210 4746 112924 739 1099 4854 1572 4118 499 413 2801 2291 631 6094 2173 484 2855 7443 2801 5881 1236 823 868 1090 301 12377 409 30542 2459 6062 575 432 1905 1514 1176 671
2020-06-11 41200 129000 9650 8770 29300 1700 34200 6050 1210 1500 1370 4810 40400 8080 2630 1510 8050 2000 8550 15600 6050 1030 6450 1300 4760 113000 740 1110 4870 1580 4130 500 420 2820 2300 640 6120 2190 490 2870 7470 2820 5940 1250 830 870 1100 300 12400 410 30600 2470 6090 580 440 1910 1520 1180 680
2020-06-12 41300 129000 9660 8790 29300 1700 34200 6050 1220 1510 1370 4840 41700 8120 2890 1570 8270 2030 8610 16000 6210 1040 6590 1370 4780 114000 750 1120 4910 1580 4140 510 420 2840 2340 640 6160 2200 490 2870 7510 2840 5960 1270 830 880 1110 300 12500 410 30600 2480 6120 590 440 1920 1530 1190 680
2020-06-13 41400 129000 9670 8810 29400 1710 34300 6060 1220 1510 1380 4860 43000 8170 3170 1630 8490 2070 8670 16400 6370 1050 6710 1450 4800 114000 760 1130 4950 1590 4160 510 430 2850 2360 650 6200 2210 490 2880 7540 2850 6000 1280 840 890 1120 310 12500 420 30700 2500 6150 600 450 1930 1540 1190 690
2020-06-14 41500 130000 9680 8820 29400 1710 34300 6070 1230 1520 1380 4880 44200 8210 3400 1700 8680 2110 8710 16800 6540 1050 6830 1510 4810 115000 760 1140 4970 1600 4170 510 430 2870 2390 650 6240 2220 500 2890 7570 2870 6010 1290 850 900 1130 310 12600 420 30700 2510 6170 600 450 1940 1560 1190 690
2020-06-15 41600 130000 9690 8840 29400 1710 34400 6070 1240 1520 1390 4910 45600 8250 3650 1760 8870 2150 8750 17200 6710 1050 6950 1570 4820 115000 760 1150 5000 1610 4180 520 430 2880 2400 660 6270 2230 500 2890 7600 2890 6050 1300 850 900 1130 310 12600 420 30800 2530 6190 600 460 1950 1570 1200 700
2020-06-16 41700 130000 9710 8850 29500 1720 34400 6090 1240 1530 1390 4920 46800 8290 3990 1820 9050 2190 8800 17600 6880 1060 7090 1620 4830 115000 770 1150 5030 1620 4190 520 440 2890 2400 660 6290 2230 500 2900 7620 2900 6070 1310 860 910 1140 310 12700 420 30800 2540 6230 610 460 1960 1580 1200 700
2020-06-17 41800 130000 9720 8860 29500 1720 34400 6100 1240 1530 1400 4940 48000 8340 4530 1880 9200 2210 8820 18000 7060 1060 7270 1670 4840 116000 770 1160 5050 1620 4200 520 440 2910 2440 670 6320 2240 500 2900 7640 2920 6090 1320 860 920 1150 320 12700 430 30800 2550 6250 610 460 1970 1590 1210 700
2020-06-18 41900 130000 9720 8870 29500 1720 34500 6110 1250 1540 1400 4970 49300 8380 4530 1920 9340 2240 8840 18400 7240 1060 7390 1720 4850 116000 770 1170 5070 1630 4210 530 440 2920 2460 670 6350 2250 510 2910 7670 2930 6100 1330 860 920 1160 320 12700 430 30900 2570 6270 610 460 1980 1600 1210 710
2020-06-19 42000 130000 9730 8890 29600 1720 34500 6120 1250 1540 1400 4990 50600 8430 4530 1960 9470 2280 8870 18800 7430 1060 7510 1770 4860 117000 780 1170 5100 1640 4220 530 440 2940 2480 670 6380 2260 510 2910 7680 2940 6120 1340 860 930 1160 320 12800 430 30900 2590 6290 610 460 1990 1610 1220 710

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-06-10

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0704-0804-1004-1104-0804-1504-0404-0204-2104-0704-1804-2403-2804-0704-2404-1105-0104-2204-0704-04
Peak daily increment 1010 3234 23 354 7 11 270 18 899 18 1017 14 95 832 160 29 33 25 118 9 63
Days from 100 to peak 22 34 9 17 1 -1 23 3 20 1 23 5 22 24 18 18 13 29 25 -2 12
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 24 17 15 22 13 22 14 16 23 16 25 25 19 18 28 19 37 27 20 16
Last total 41128 128856 673 9629 253 330 8752 593 27136 324 29260 551 1695 34114 6042 1206 1497 1360 4795 239 1936
Last daily increment 245 253 1 10 2 2 16 0 0 0 23 1 4 71 11 23 5 6 78 0 2
Last week 1224 1441 3 81 3 4 117 11 3 2 250 12 31 425 52 89 42 55 233 1 15
Days since peak 62 64 63 61 60 63 56 67 69 50 64 53 47 74 64 47 60 40 49 64 67

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-06-10

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date06-0405-05 -- -- -- --03-1906-03 --04-1205-29 --04-1904-1505-0605-0804-2304-2404-2004-2505-1405-0704-2005-2005-1304-2904-1404-1604-1404-2504-2904-2205-2805-0805-0605-2805-2904-3005-1404-1204-0704-2904-2105-0504-2904-0305-1404-2204-0605-29
Peak daily increment 1094 178 148 623 29 182 125 2270 17 38 88 52 116 12 11 54 45 16 128 50 7 12 76 245 66 146 27 20 23 27 15 315 11 11 1072 56 9 170 20 10 40 53 31 14
Days from 100 to peak 68 34 14 58 11 48 22 30 23 26 26 21 18 5 20 36 20 26 43 25 -6 1 18 24 22 25 41 27 23 45 16 29 17 0 18 25 8 32 14 -8 40 7 14 51
Days from peak/2 to peak 59 35 16 51 25 48 24 21 37 36 30 28 20 26 45 42 25 48 44 32 18 20 21 23 26 26 55 41 38 57 30 29 42 17 13 31 27 33 33 5 48 13 30 65
Last total 39680 8038 2475 1439 7745 1959 8506 15357 5903 1027 6350 1210 4746 112924 739 1099 4854 1572 4118 499 413 2801 2291 631 6094 2173 240 484 2855 7443 2801 5881 1236 823 868 1090 301 12377 409 449 30542 2459 356 6062 575 432 1905 1514 1176 671
Last daily increment 1274 68 192 66 -5 36 81 708 165 10 216 48 17 935 14 25 109 19 21 4 3 36 42 5 77 15 3 7 11 46 30 12 19 6 21 22 15 74 6 3 84 36 2 48 7 2 38 18 0 10
Last week 5659 321 1119 340 1382 238 435 2812 872 43 974 362 116 4727 88 103 410 60 111 24 28 194 173 48 359 121 13 26 83 253 173 360 121 55 74 84 28 407 26 19 368 119 12 230 74 35 129 69 38 45
Days since peak 6 36 83 7 59 12 52 56 35 33 48 47 51 46 27 34 51 21 28 42 57 55 57 46 42 49 13 33 35 13 12 41 27 59 64 42 50 36 42 68 27 49 65 12

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths