COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-06-24


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITPLROSE
2020-06-24 43081 132308 9722 8928 28327 29661 34644 1396 1555 5209
2020-06-25 43200 133000 9730 8940 28400 29700 34700 1400 1570 5220
2020-06-26 43300 133000 9740 8950 28500 29700 34700 1410 1580 5230
2020-06-27 43400 133000 9740 8960 28500 29700 34700 1420 1590 5250
2020-06-28 43500 133000 9750 8970 28600 29800 34800 1430 1610 5270
2020-06-29 43600 134000 9760 8980 28700 29800 34800 1440 1630 5300
2020-06-30 43700 134000 9760 8990 28800 29800 34800 1460 1640 5320
2020-07-01 43900 134000 9770 9000 28900 29900 34900 1470 1660 5340

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-24 53830 8544 4731 2524 14894 2573 9996 24324 8586 1204 8503 2205 5025 121979 879 240 1466 5725 1667 4287 505 3281 2656 6770 2386 3039 7929 3084 6041 1397 954 1011 1325 13076 480 31257 2755 6518 683 548 2270 1661 1293 757
2020-06-25 54300 8570 4820 2590 15100 2610 10100 25100 8750 1210 8590 2240 5040 122000 880 240 1470 5740 1670 4300 520 3290 2660 6790 2400 3040 7950 3100 6050 1400 960 1020 1340 13100 480 31300 2770 6530 690 550 2280 1660 1300 760
2020-06-26 55000 8600 4940 2680 15400 2650 10200 26100 8930 1220 8710 2310 5060 123000 890 250 1480 5790 1680 4300 530 3320 2670 6830 2410 3060 7980 3110 6060 1410 960 1020 1370 13200 490 31300 2780 6540 690 550 2290 1670 1310 770
2020-06-27 55800 8630 5070 2780 15800 2690 10300 27100 9110 1240 8830 2390 5080 123000 890 250 1490 5840 1680 4310 550 3340 2690 6860 2420 3070 8010 3130 6070 1420 970 1030 1400 13200 490 31400 2800 6560 700 560 2310 1680 1310 770
2020-06-28 56700 8660 5210 2880 16100 2730 10400 28100 9290 1250 8950 2480 5110 124000 900 260 1510 5890 1690 4320 570 3370 2700 6900 2440 3080 8030 3140 6080 1430 980 1040 1430 13300 490 31400 2810 6580 710 560 2330 1680 1320 780
2020-06-29 57500 8690 5360 2990 16400 2770 10500 29200 9480 1260 9080 2570 5130 124000 910 260 1530 5950 1690 4330 590 3400 2720 6930 2450 3090 8060 3160 6090 1440 980 1050 1460 13300 490 31500 2830 6600 720 570 2350 1690 1330 780
2020-06-30 58400 8720 5510 3100 16800 2810 10600 30300 9670 1270 9210 2660 5150 125000 920 270 1550 6000 1700 4340 610 3430 2730 6970 2460 3100 8090 3170 6100 1450 990 1060 1490 13400 500 31500 2840 6630 730 570 2360 1700 1330 790
2020-07-01 59400 8750 5670 3220 17200 2850 10700 31400 9870 1280 9340 2750 5170 126000 930 270 1570 6060 1700 4350 630 3460 2740 7010 2470 3120 8120 3190 6110 1460 990 1070 1530 13500 500 31500 2860 6650 740 580 2380 1710 1340 790

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITPLROSE
2020-06-24 43081 132308 9722 8928 28327 29661 34644 1396 1555 5209
2020-06-25 43200 133000 9730 8940 28500 29700 34700 1410 1570 5240
2020-06-26 43300 133000 9740 8950 28600 29700 34700 1420 1580 5270
2020-06-27 43500 133000 9750 8960 28700 29800 34700 1440 1590 5290
2020-06-28 43600 133000 9760 8970 28700 29800 34700 1450 1610 5320
2020-06-29 43700 134000 9770 8980 28800 29800 34700 1460 1620 5350
2020-06-30 43900 134000 9770 8990 28900 29800 34800 1480 1630 5380
2020-07-01 44000 134000 9780 9010 29000 29900 34800 1490 1650 5410

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-24 53830 8544 4731 2524 14894 2573 9996 24324 8586 1204 8503 2205 5025 121979 879 240 1466 5725 1667 4287 505 3281 2656 6770 2386 3039 7929 3084 6041 1397 954 1011 1325 13076 480 31257 2755 6518 683 548 2270 1661 1293 757
2020-06-25 54700 8570 4880 2550 15100 2610 10100 25200 8730 1220 8640 2250 5050 123000 890 240 1490 5780 1670 4300 510 3310 2670 6820 2400 3050 7960 3100 6050 1400 960 1020 1370 13100 480 31300 2770 6550 690 550 2300 1670 1300 760
2020-06-26 55600 8600 5010 2580 15400 2640 10200 26200 8890 1230 8770 2310 5070 123000 900 250 1520 5840 1680 4310 520 3350 2680 6860 2410 3070 7990 3110 6060 1410 970 1030 1420 13200 490 31300 2790 6590 700 560 2320 1680 1310 770
2020-06-27 56500 8620 5140 2610 15700 2680 10300 27200 9050 1240 8900 2390 5090 124000 920 250 1550 5900 1680 4320 540 3380 2690 6900 2420 3080 8020 3130 6070 1420 970 1040 1460 13200 490 31400 2800 6620 710 570 2340 1690 1320 770
2020-06-28 57400 8650 5270 2640 16000 2720 10400 28200 9200 1260 9030 2460 5120 124000 930 250 1590 5960 1690 4330 550 3410 2710 6930 2430 3090 8060 3140 6080 1430 980 1060 1510 13200 490 31400 2820 6650 720 570 2360 1700 1320 780
2020-06-29 58400 8670 5410 2680 16300 2750 10600 29300 9360 1270 9160 2540 5140 125000 940 260 1620 6030 1690 4340 560 3450 2720 6970 2450 3110 8090 3160 6090 1430 990 1070 1560 13300 500 31500 2840 6680 730 580 2390 1710 1330 780
2020-06-30 59300 8700 5550 2710 16600 2790 10700 30400 9530 1280 9300 2610 5160 126000 960 260 1650 6090 1690 4350 570 3480 2730 7010 2460 3120 8120 3170 6100 1440 990 1080 1610 13300 500 31500 2860 6710 740 590 2410 1720 1340 790
2020-07-01 60300 8730 5700 2750 16900 2830 10800 31600 9700 1300 9440 2690 5180 126000 970 260 1680 6150 1700 4360 580 3520 2740 7050 2470 3140 8150 3190 6110 1450 1000 1090 1660 13300 500 31600 2870 6740 750 590 2440 1740 1350 790

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-03

DateUKEUBEDEESFRITPLROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-24 43081 132308 9722 8928 28327 29661 34644 1396 1555 5209 53830 8544 4731 2524 14894 2573 9996 24324 8586 1204 8503 2205 5025 121979 879 240 1466 5725 1667 4287 505 3281 2656 6770 2386 3039 7929 3084 6041 1397 954 1011 1325 13076 480 31257 2755 6518 683 548 2270 1661 1293 757
2020-06-25 43100 133000 9730 8940 28500 29700 34700 1400 1570 5220 54700 8570 4790 2640 15200 2610 10100 24900 8730 1210 8590 2250 5050 122000 880 250 1470 5750 1670 4290 510 3300 2670 6790 2400 3050 7950 3100 6060 1410 960 1020 1340 13100 480 31300 2760 6530 690 550 2290 1660 1300 760
2020-06-26 43200 133000 9730 8950 28600 29700 34800 1410 1580 5240 55700 8590 4890 2760 15600 2640 10200 25600 8870 1220 8680 2320 5080 123000 890 250 1470 5790 1680 4300 530 3320 2690 6820 2410 3060 7970 3110 6060 1420 960 1040 1360 13100 480 31400 2780 6540 700 550 2310 1670 1300 770
2020-06-27 43300 133000 9740 8950 28600 29700 34800 1420 1590 5250 56900 8610 4990 2890 15800 2670 10300 26300 9000 1230 8780 2390 5100 123000 900 260 1490 5830 1680 4310 540 3350 2700 6850 2420 3070 7990 3120 6070 1420 970 1050 1380 13200 490 31400 2790 6550 710 560 2320 1680 1310 770
2020-06-28 43400 133000 9750 8960 28700 29700 34800 1420 1600 5260 57800 8640 5070 3010 16100 2710 10400 27000 9150 1240 8870 2450 5120 123000 920 260 1500 5880 1680 4310 550 3370 2720 6870 2430 3080 8010 3130 6080 1430 970 1080 1410 13200 490 31500 2800 6570 710 560 2340 1680 1320 770
2020-06-29 43500 133000 9760 8970 28700 29800 34800 1430 1610 5280 59500 8650 5140 3120 16500 2740 10500 27500 9280 1250 8950 2500 5140 124000 940 260 1510 5890 1690 4320 610 3390 2730 6900 2440 3090 8030 3150 6090 1430 980 1090 1430 13200 490 31500 2820 6590 720 560 2340 1690 1320 780
2020-06-30 43500 133000 9760 8980 28700 29800 34900 1430 1620 5290 60400 8670 5230 3180 16700 2770 10500 28000 9410 1260 9020 2560 5160 124000 940 260 1510 5920 1690 4320 610 3410 2740 6920 2450 3100 8050 3160 6100 1440 990 1110 1450 13200 500 31600 2830 6600 730 570 2350 1690 1330 780
2020-07-01 43600 133000 9770 8990 28700 29800 34900 1440 1640 5300 61700 8690 5290 3270 17000 2800 10600 28600 9540 1270 9080 2620 5170 125000 970 270 1510 5950 1690 4330 610 3420 2760 6940 2460 3110 8060 3170 6100 1440 990 1140 1480 13300 500 31600 2840 6610 730 570 2370 1690 1340 790
2020-07-02 43700 133000 9770 8990 28700 29800 34900 1440 1650 5310 62800 8720 5360 3350 17400 2820 10600 28900 9680 1270 9170 2660 5190 125000 1000 270 1510 5990 1690 4330 610 3440 2780 6960 2470 3120 8080 3180 6110 1450 990 1160 1510 13300 500 31600 2850 6630 740 570 2390 1700 1340 790
2020-07-03 43700 133000 9770 9000 28800 29800 34900 1450 1660 5320 64100 8730 5450 3380 17700 2850 10700 29300 9800 1280 9240 2710 5200 125000 1020 280 1510 6010 1700 4340 610 3450 2790 6980 2470 3130 8100 3190 6120 1450 990 1170 1540 13300 500 31700 2860 6640 740 580 2400 1700 1350 790

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-06-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0704-0704-10 --04-1104-0904-1504-0403-3004-2104-0704-1904-2403-2804-0704-2404-1105-0104-2204-0804-04
Peak daily increment 1019 3232 22 349 8 11 269 18 896 17 1028 14 101 839 159 29 33 25 120 9 61
Days from 100 to peak 22 34 8 17 1 0 23 3 17 1 23 6 22 24 18 18 13 29 25 -1 12
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 24 16 15 22 14 22 14 13 24 16 26 25 19 18 28 19 37 27 21 17
Last total 43081 132308 693 9722 209 257 343 8928 603 28327 327 29661 576 1726 34644 6097 1396 1543 1555 5209 249 1958
Last daily increment 154 108 0 9 1 1 4 14 0 2 0 9 3 6 -31 2 21 3 16 48 1 2
Last week 793 1951 5 39 19 2 9 53 3 1191 1 121 8 12 130 19 80 19 82 156 5 2
Days since peak 76 78 78 75 74 76 70 81 86 64 78 66 61 88 78 61 74 54 63 77 81

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-06-24

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date06-0405-0406-08 --06-1606-1803-19 --06-1404-1205-29 --04-2004-15 --06-18 --04-2304-2404-2004-25 --05-0604-2005-2005-1304-2904-1404-1604-1404-2704-2904-2205-2805-0505-06 --05-2005-2904-2905-1204-1204-0704-2904-2105-0504-2904-0605-1504-2204-0605-29
Peak daily increment 1097 179 309 909 50 147 228 27 184 125 2272 7 87 51 115 12 54 46 16 127 50 7 11 75 221 63 151 27 19 22 23 15 300 10 10 1068 54 9 170 18 10 39 47 31 14
Days from 100 to peak 68 33 53 72 81 14 68 11 48 23 30 31 26 21 18 5 35 20 26 43 25 -6 1 18 26 22 25 41 26 23 0 16 29 15 0 18 25 8 32 14 -5 41 7 14 51
Days from peak/2 to peak 59 34 47 60 90 16 67 25 48 25 21 79 30 28 20 26 41 25 48 44 32 18 21 21 26 26 26 55 39 38 41 31 28 40 18 13 31 27 33 34 8 50 14 30 65
Last total 53830 8544 4731 2524 14894 2573 9996 24324 8586 1204 8503 2205 5025 121979 879 240 1466 5725 1667 4287 541 505 3281 2656 689 6770 2386 259 538 3039 7929 3084 6041 1397 954 1011 1325 256 347 13076 480 489 31257 2755 372 6518 683 548 2270 1661 1293 757
Last daily increment 1185 32 226 0 418 38 133 947 182 18 154 103 24 751 25 3 71 99 2 10 4 1 43 4 0 63 9 0 1 18 48 17 5 4 9 22 29 1 4 51 4 0 25 20 1 54 10 14 34 16 9 7
Last week 6082 183 890 569 2321 234 724 4577 1125 88 853 468 143 3547 78 32 184 370 29 61 14 74 220 92 9 233 82 8 18 89 170 94 53 54 40 73 137 18 16 207 28 14 283 122 6 157 62 47 141 75 48 38
Days since peak 20 51 16 8 6 97 10 73 26 65 70 6 62 61 65 60 49 65 35 42 56 71 69 71 58 56 63 27 50 49 35 26 56 43 73 78 56 64 50 56 79 40 63 79 26

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths