COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-01 43906 133185 9754 232 8995 28364 29780 34788 1477 1579 1667 5370
2020-07-02 43970 133300 9759 234 9005 28370 29790 34790 1489 1581 1679 5376
2020-07-03 44090 133400 9767 237 9021 28390 29800 34800 1503 1584 1694 5417
2020-07-04 44190 133500 9774 240 9024 28400 29820 34800 1513 1587 1710 5418
2020-07-05 44240 133600 9782 243 9025 28420 29840 34810 1522 1590 1726 5418
2020-07-06 44290 133700 9790 246 9030 28430 29850 34820 1532 1593 1742 5442
2020-07-07 44440 133800 9800 250 9042 28450 29870 34830 1546 1597 1758 5471
2020-07-08 44570 134000 9809 253 9055 28460 29890 34840 1561 1600 1775 5525

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-01 60632 8678 5753 3488 17834 2934 10958 28510 9860 1270 9521 2749 5150 128062 947 277 1724 6169 1697 4324 3550 2777 717 6951 2456 572 3130 8046 3180 6125 1445 987 1082 1398 15078 32043 2876 6684 766 601 2503 1786 1339 786
2020-07-02 61630 8690 5897 3551 18150 3000 11140 29210 10030 1279 9740 2779 5168 128900 949 282 1752 6224 1698 4327 3572 2800 720 6977 2461 574 3136 8047 3189 6130 1450 990 1086 1404 15160 32060 2896 6710 768 609 2524 1794 1345 793
2020-07-03 62590 8707 6081 3681 18570 3080 11340 29920 10200 1290 9970 2839 5187 129500 955 288 1797 6282 1702 4332 3610 2819 723 7006 2470 578 3152 8067 3202 6137 1455 996 1092 1413 15250 32080 2918 6729 772 618 2558 1806 1351 796
2020-07-04 63590 8724 6293 3836 19000 3148 11540 30490 10400 1301 10220 2912 5205 130000 964 294 1846 6328 1706 4337 3641 2828 725 7027 2487 581 3160 8087 3214 6144 1460 1002 1102 1421 15350 32110 2945 6749 778 626 2587 1821 1358 807
2020-07-05 64210 8740 6475 4106 19440 3216 11750 30980 10610 1312 10470 2982 5224 130300 969 300 1898 6351 1709 4342 3662 2835 727 7039 2488 584 3170 8107 3227 6152 1467 1006 1105 1424 15440 32130 2952 6760 785 630 2603 1836 1362 807
2020-07-06 64960 8759 6603 4176 19890 3299 11980 31580 10810 1324 10730 3057 5243 130700 977 307 1950 6404 1713 4346 3682 2848 731 7056 2495 586 3179 8127 3239 6160 1472 1009 1124 1443 15530 32150 2970 6776 794 638 2619 1849 1370 809
2020-07-07 66250 8777 6744 4282 20350 3384 12200 32400 11030 1335 11000 3139 5262 131400 991 313 2005 6485 1719 4351 3741 2879 734 7098 2512 591 3194 8148 3252 6169 1476 1015 1137 1466 15640 32180 3010 6805 804 647 2654 1865 1378 817
2020-07-08 67410 8796 6953 4369 20820 3460 12430 33450 11240 1346 11270 3220 5281 131900 1005 320 2061 6569 1724 4356 3777 2900 737 7149 2522 595 3208 8169 3265 6178 1479 1023 1155 1491 15740 32210 3034 6837 814 656 2688 1881 1384 825

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-01 43906 133185 9754 232 8995 28364 29780 34788 1477 1579 1667 5370
2020-07-02 44090 133200 9759 235 9018 28360 29780 34790 1500 1583 1682 5409
2020-07-03 44260 133200 9764 238 9035 28360 29790 34790 1515 1586 1696 5453
2020-07-04 44350 133200 9770 241 9037 28360 29790 34790 1523 1590 1710 5453
2020-07-05 44370 133200 9775 243 9037 28360 29790 34790 1528 1593 1723 5453
2020-07-06 44370 133200 9780 246 9043 28360 29790 34790 1534 1597 1737 5477
2020-07-07 44520 133200 9784 249 9053 28360 29800 34790 1550 1600 1751 5499
2020-07-08 44700 133200 9789 252 9063 28360 29800 34790 1565 1604 1764 5543

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-01 60632 8678 5753 3488 17834 2934 10958 28510 9860 1270 9521 2749 5150 128062 947 277 1724 6169 1697 4324 3550 2777 717 6951 2456 572 3130 8046 3180 6125 1445 987 1082 1398 15078 32043 2876 6684 766 601 2503 1786 1339 786
2020-07-02 61830 8702 5986 3488 18240 3026 11180 29160 10060 1280 9820 2803 5167 129000 951 282 1782 6239 1703 4329 3575 2846 725 7053 2478 576 3137 8046 3197 6135 1472 987 1089 1411 15120 32070 2901 6737 776 611 2526 1801 1346 800
2020-07-03 62790 8726 6177 3590 18630 3119 11380 29790 10250 1291 10130 2870 5184 129600 960 288 1839 6298 1708 4334 3614 2866 729 7080 2487 581 3159 8046 3213 6145 1483 994 1094 1419 15130 32100 2917 6758 785 622 2562 1815 1353 802
2020-07-04 63790 8750 6420 3733 19030 3197 11580 30420 10450 1301 10450 2943 5201 130100 971 293 1898 6341 1714 4339 3644 2867 729 7098 2504 582 3164 8046 3229 6155 1492 999 1104 1422 15150 32130 2936 6776 794 629 2590 1829 1360 811
2020-07-05 64320 8774 6595 3971 19420 3275 11790 31040 10640 1312 10790 2992 5218 130300 972 298 1958 6369 1720 4344 3666 2867 730 7109 2506 585 3170 8046 3244 6164 1504 999 1106 1422 15170 32160 2938 6776 803 630 2601 1842 1367 811
2020-07-06 64990 8797 6646 4009 19820 3355 12020 31660 10830 1323 11130 3064 5234 130700 978 303 2022 6415 1727 4348 3687 2869 734 7126 2512 586 3176 8046 3260 6174 1517 999 1128 1431 15200 32190 2948 6786 812 636 2615 1856 1374 811
2020-07-07 66250 8821 6717 4119 20210 3457 12230 32300 11020 1334 11490 3182 5251 131400 997 308 2087 6501 1733 4353 3747 2895 738 7143 2524 592 3196 8049 3276 6184 1525 999 1142 1451 15200 32220 2982 6812 821 648 2652 1870 1381 815
2020-07-08 67310 8845 6837 4201 20620 3539 12450 32940 11210 1345 11860 3270 5267 131900 1016 313 2155 6581 1739 4358 3786 2914 740 7180 2533 598 3212 8053 3292 6193 1529 1011 1154 1470 15270 32250 2996 6848 830 653 2693 1883 1388 819

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-10

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-01 43906 133185 9754 232 8995 28364 29780 34788 1477 1579 1667 5370 60632 8678 5753 3488 17834 2934 10958 28510 9860 1270 9521 2749 5150 128062 947 277 1724 6169 1697 4324 3550 2777 717 6951 2456 572 3130 8046 3180 6125 1445 987 1082 1398 15078 32043 2876 6684 766 601 2503 1786 1339 786
2020-07-02 44010 133300 9758 234 9005 28510 29810 34790 1486 1584 1676 5382 61540 8697 5881 3619 18080 2984 11120 29230 10050 1287 9720 2796 5170 128600 947 282 1758 6191 1700 4330 3567 2790 720 6987 2466 573 3139 8069 3191 6135 1450 992 1091 1408 15080 32080 2890 6701 766 609 2525 1786 1345 792
2020-07-03 44110 133400 9764 237 9012 28630 29830 34800 1494 1588 1687 5397 62440 8714 5999 3757 18270 3032 11300 29930 10230 1297 9860 2860 5188 129100 949 288 1797 6246 1704 4333 3597 2804 722 7015 2474 577 3149 8081 3200 6146 1453 995 1099 1414 15590 32100 2903 6721 766 615 2556 1798 1351 796
2020-07-04 44200 133500 9769 239 9019 28690 29840 34810 1499 1592 1697 5412 63540 8730 6116 3882 18590 3083 11460 30610 10440 1306 10050 2947 5205 129700 957 293 1848 6275 1707 4336 3624 2818 725 7044 2481 581 3160 8096 3210 6156 1457 998 1108 1421 15770 32130 2915 6738 770 621 2581 1812 1356 800
2020-07-05 44290 133600 9775 240 9025 28760 29860 34820 1504 1596 1711 5428 64780 8748 6209 4073 18850 3140 11580 31340 10670 1315 10220 3035 5220 130200 963 297 1893 6318 1710 4338 3649 2831 727 7066 2488 584 3170 8107 3219 6166 1461 1001 1116 1425 15990 32150 2924 6749 778 626 2613 1826 1361 803
2020-07-06 44380 133800 9781 242 9031 28840 29880 34820 1508 1600 1718 5439 65870 8765 6287 4240 19000 3201 11680 32000 10870 1324 10380 3103 5234 130700 969 302 1938 6359 1713 4341 3674 2845 729 7087 2495 587 3180 8110 3228 6176 1465 1005 1124 1437 15990 32170 2934 6767 783 631 2644 1837 1365 806
2020-07-07 44470 133900 9786 244 9038 28940 29890 34830 1514 1603 1727 5449 66960 8788 6359 4373 19200 3258 11810 32790 11060 1332 10530 3186 5246 131200 975 306 1983 6399 1716 4344 3697 2859 731 7106 2501 589 3188 8112 3235 6186 1468 1009 1129 1445 15990 32190 2942 6782 788 636 2676 1846 1369 809
2020-07-08 44550 134000 9791 246 9044 29040 29910 34830 1518 1605 1735 5462 68110 8808 6425 4534 19480 3321 11940 33460 11240 1340 10670 3267 5258 131600 980 309 2020 6427 1719 4345 3719 2872 732 7122 2506 592 3195 8112 3242 6193 1471 1012 1135 1451 15990 32220 2950 6796 792 640 2701 1853 1373 813
2020-07-09 44620 134000 9796 248 9050 29130 29930 34830 1524 1608 1741 5472 69250 8823 6488 4707 19770 3394 12070 34140 11500 1347 10810 3345 5270 132000 985 313 2064 6469 1722 4347 3737 2885 734 7134 2513 594 3202 8119 3250 6200 1474 1015 1140 1461 15990 32240 2957 6808 794 645 2741 1859 1377 816
2020-07-10 44680 134100 9799 249 9056 29160 29940 34830 1525 1610 1748 5483 70290 8837 6553 4832 19890 3466 12370 34870 11770 1354 10920 3428 5281 132400 989 317 2107 6482 1725 4347 3754 2898 735 7156 2517 596 3208 8128 3259 6205 1477 1017 1143 1466 15990 32260 2964 6818 797 649 2779 1865 1381 819

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 983 3121 20 322 4 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 77 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 43906 133185 705 9754 232 257 349 8995 606 28364 328 29780 586 1738 34788 6113 1477 1579 1667 5370 251 1965
Last daily increment 176 136 0 7 2 0 0 5 1 9 0 17 1 2 21 0 14 3 16 37 1 2
Last week 676 737 7 28 21 0 4 55 3 34 1 100 9 11 110 13 65 30 102 140 2 7
Days since peak 83 88 86 77 26 81 84 77 88 92 71 84 73 68 94 88 67 77 59 71 85 86

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-01

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date06-2605-0606-08 --06-16 -- -- --06-2604-12 -- --04-1504-1405-0704-09 --04-2204-2404-2004-2906-2304-2004-0705-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2906-1805-0505-2905-2005-2906-2505-1104-1204-0904-2904-1704-0905-0504-2904-02 --04-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1032 168 484 1696 206 30 120 2161 14 8 79 71 106 11 40 49 45 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 24 20 18 20 41 28 1695 9 10 999 76 8 4 137 25 9 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 90 36 54 72 80 11 18 29 24 -37 25 21 18 10 60 18 7 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 70 22 46 0 16 85 14 0 20 25 4 -20 32 13 -10 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 81 37 37 51 80 23 20 20 39 9 30 27 20 30 75 26 12 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 83 37 59 30 31 80 39 18 15 30 23 22 33 32 6 10 30 18
Last total 60632 8678 5753 3488 17834 2934 10958 28510 9860 1270 9521 2749 5150 128062 947 277 1724 6169 1697 4324 553 509 3550 2777 717 6951 2456 276 572 3130 8046 3180 6125 1445 987 1082 1398 275 373 15078 500 511 32043 2876 389 208 6684 766 601 2503 1786 1339 786
Last daily increment 1038 28 65 112 434 58 141 741 183 4 215 92 19 645 21 7 80 87 7 2 2 0 45 21 1 28 8 4 7 17 0 19 5 4 13 9 18 2 2 43 3 4 11 13 2 1 35 27 4 48 23 7 2
Last week 5661 111 850 877 2533 314 828 3450 1099 58 927 457 104 3050 67 37 230 363 28 26 10 2 223 75 21 141 62 15 26 79 90 80 65 39 31 66 62 16 16 206 15 16 140 104 14 11 127 73 43 186 111 39 20
Days since peak 5 56 23 15 5 80 77 78 55 83 70 68 72 63 8 72 85 41 50 61 78 78 78 67 63 78 33 13 57 33 42 33 6 51 80 83 63 75 83 57 63 90 70 86 81

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths