COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-06


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 983 3121 20 322 5 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 75 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 44236 133691 706 9774 250 258 350 9022 607 28388 329 29836 589 1741 34869 6128 1521 1620 1768 5433 251 1965
Last daily increment 16 85 0 3 4 0 2 -1 1 3 0 23 0 0 8 1 4 6 18 13 0 0
Last week 506 642 1 27 20 1 1 32 2 33 1 73 4 5 102 15 58 44 117 100 1 2
Days since peak 88 93 91 82 31 86 89 82 93 97 76 89 78 73 99 93 72 82 64 76 90 91

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-06

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-0606-08 --06-16 -- --07-01 --04-1206-03 --04-1504-1405-0704-0907-0104-2204-2404-2004-2906-23 --04-0705-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-3005-0506-2205-2005-2906-2505-1104-1204-0904-2904-1704-0905-0504-2904-02 --04-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 168 512 1695 681 30 172 120 2161 14 8 37 79 71 106 11 44 45 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 18 23 41 28 1614 9 10 999 76 8 4 137 25 9 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 36 53 72 86 11 53 18 29 24 -37 80 25 21 18 10 60 7 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 22 70 0 16 85 14 0 20 25 4 -21 32 13 -10 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 37 35 51 79 23 54 20 20 39 9 91 30 27 20 30 74 12 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 37 82 30 31 81 39 18 15 30 23 22 33 32 6 11 30 18
Last total 65487 8748 6384 4305 20159 3241 11731 31119 10772 1303 10280 3310 5241 130285 984 292 1829 6441 1691 4338 561 512 3778 2827 723 7026 2505 284 593 3188 8190 3228 6148 1474 1020 1114 1432 282 382 15229 515 537 32219 2927 399 215 6754 827 644 2677 1853 1369 796
Last daily increment 620 9 76 127 466 70 160 480 183 6 135 111 16 325 0 5 4 68 -10 3 2 0 47 17 2 6 5 1 8 8 15 11 3 3 0 3 9 -1 1 18 2 3 13 16 1 0 1 7 7 36 0 10 0
Last week 5893 98 696 929 2759 365 914 3350 1095 37 974 653 110 2853 58 22 185 359 1 16 10 3 273 71 7 103 57 12 28 75 144 67 28 33 32 41 52 9 11 194 18 30 187 64 12 8 105 88 47 222 90 37 12
Days since peak 61 28 20 5 85 33 82 83 60 88 5 75 73 77 68 13 90 46 55 66 83 83 83 72 68 83 38 67 62 14 47 38 11 56 85 88 68 80 88 62 68 95 75 91 86

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-06 44236 133691 9774 250 9022 28388 29836 34869 1521 1620 1768 5433
2020-07-07 44480 133700 9779 253 9045 28390 29850 34870 1531 1625 1785 5483
2020-07-08 44630 133700 9783 256 9052 28390 29870 34880 1542 1630 1800 5523
2020-07-09 44710 133700 9788 260 9061 28390 29880 34880 1553 1635 1816 5550
2020-07-10 44840 133700 9792 263 9067 28390 29890 34880 1563 1639 1832 5566
2020-07-11 44910 133700 9797 266 9074 28390 29910 34880 1574 1644 1847 5568
2020-07-12 44910 133700 9801 269 9074 28390 29920 34890 1585 1648 1863 5568
2020-07-13 44910 133700 9805 272 9074 28390 29940 34890 1596 1653 1878 5572

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-06 65487 8748 6384 4305 20159 3241 11731 31119 10772 1303 10280 3310 5241 130285 984 292 1829 6441 3778 2827 7026 2505 593 3188 8190 3228 6148 1474 1020 1114 1432 15229 537 32219 2927 6754 827 644 2677 1853 1369
2020-07-07 66670 8761 6578 4552 20570 3276 11960 32050 11110 1312 10400 3435 5257 131600 1003 297 1863 6506 3802 2868 7110 2526 596 3206 8214 3236 6157 1474 1024 1136 1465 15560 538 32250 2968 6804 838 652 2690 1869 1375
2020-07-08 67710 8772 6680 4700 20970 3341 12180 32800 11470 1321 10590 3570 5273 132400 1022 301 1933 6590 3844 2879 7134 2532 602 3222 8240 3244 6165 1474 1029 1150 1481 15670 541 32280 2979 6834 848 660 2736 1891 1382
2020-07-09 68870 8784 6841 4902 21370 3412 12390 33420 11830 1330 10720 3716 5288 133300 1033 306 1970 6674 3903 2899 7159 2543 609 3235 8267 3253 6174 1474 1033 1155 1489 15830 545 32310 2984 6859 858 668 2777 1913 1388
2020-07-10 69980 8796 6983 5156 21760 3485 12610 34030 12230 1339 10890 3867 5304 134000 1049 310 2003 6721 3956 2909 7178 2557 613 3256 8295 3261 6182 1474 1038 1163 1496 15930 549 32340 3005 6884 868 675 2823 1937 1394
2020-07-11 70990 8807 7145 5391 22160 3545 12820 34530 12640 1348 11040 4027 5319 134500 1054 315 2024 6747 3974 2911 7194 2567 613 3258 8323 3270 6190 1474 1042 1168 1501 16000 550 32370 3017 6892 878 683 2843 1945 1400
2020-07-12 71510 8819 7265 5726 22560 3631 13050 34870 13060 1357 11160 4194 5334 134900 1054 320 2032 6777 4002 2911 7194 2569 614 3266 8352 3278 6198 1474 1047 1170 1502 16060 552 32400 3017 6892 888 691 2861 1952 1406
2020-07-13 72160 8831 7346 5879 22960 3733 13290 35370 13500 1366 11270 4370 5350 135300 1054 325 2036 6836 4037 2916 7194 2575 620 3272 8381 3286 6207 1474 1051 1181 1514 16060 555 32430 3028 6893 898 698 2887 1954 1412

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-06 44236 133691 9774 250 9022 28388 29836 34869 1521 1620 1768 5433
2020-07-07 44350 133700 9779 252 9032 28400 29850 34870 1528 1623 1783 5448
2020-07-08 44480 133800 9786 256 9039 28430 29860 34880 1539 1628 1801 5484
2020-07-09 44570 133900 9793 259 9049 28450 29870 34900 1550 1633 1819 5507
2020-07-10 44690 134100 9800 263 9057 28480 29890 34910 1561 1638 1837 5524
2020-07-11 44790 134100 9807 266 9065 28500 29900 34930 1573 1643 1855 5530
2020-07-12 44850 134200 9814 270 9067 28530 29910 34940 1584 1648 1874 5534
2020-07-13 44920 134300 9820 273 9071 28550 29930 34950 1595 1653 1892 5554

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-13

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-06 65487 8748 6384 4305 20159 3241 11731 31119 10772 1303 10280 3310 5241 130285 984 292 1829 6441 3778 2827 7026 2505 593 3188 8190 3228 6148 1474 1020 1114 1432 15229 537 32219 2927 6754 827 644 2677 1853 1369
2020-07-07 66600 8755 6454 4444 20460 3303 11920 31720 11010 1310 10400 3393 5258 130900 996 296 1860 6505 3809 2839 7040 2515 596 3202 8208 3236 6152 1474 1022 1125 1450 15300 538 32240 2957 6775 835 652 2695 1866 1375
2020-07-08 67660 8771 6575 4590 20840 3380 12150 32470 11330 1319 10560 3498 5276 131600 1012 301 1912 6588 3851 2849 7066 2523 601 3216 8230 3246 6161 1477 1027 1139 1466 15380 541 32260 2973 6804 851 659 2738 1885 1380
2020-07-09 68810 8786 6731 4784 21270 3463 12370 33120 11660 1327 10700 3619 5294 132300 1024 305 1948 6676 3909 2862 7089 2533 607 3229 8252 3256 6170 1486 1032 1145 1475 15480 546 32290 2982 6828 865 668 2779 1904 1387
2020-07-10 69950 8800 6876 5039 21700 3545 12590 33760 12000 1335 10860 3745 5311 132900 1038 310 1984 6725 3964 2870 7106 2548 611 3246 8274 3266 6178 1492 1037 1154 1483 15560 549 32320 3008 6852 876 678 2823 1925 1393
2020-07-11 71030 8813 7046 5267 22140 3623 12810 34370 12370 1344 11010 3877 5329 133300 1047 315 2013 6754 3985 2880 7129 2558 613 3254 8296 3276 6186 1496 1042 1160 1491 15640 551 32340 3030 6869 889 686 2850 1941 1398
2020-07-12 71720 8823 7227 5656 22600 3708 13040 34850 12740 1352 11140 4014 5347 133700 1053 320 2037 6787 4007 2887 7145 2562 616 3264 8320 3287 6195 1502 1046 1164 1495 15720 553 32370 3037 6882 899 693 2870 1955 1403
2020-07-13 72520 8837 7362 5817 23060 3800 13280 35440 13170 1361 11260 4157 5365 134100 1061 325 2061 6833 4034 2894 7158 2567 620 3274 8343 3297 6204 1507 1050 1183 1509 15790 556 32400 3051 6894 907 701 2891 1968 1410

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-07 to 2020-07-15

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-06 44236 133691 9774 250 9022 28388 29836 34869 1521 1620 1768 5433 65487 8748 6384 4305 20159 3241 11731 31119 10772 1303 10280 3310 5241 130285 984 292 1829 6441 3778 2827 7026 2505 593 3188 8190 3228 6148 1474 1020 1114 1432 15229 537 32219 2927 6754 827 644 2677 1853 1369
2020-07-07 44400 133800 9780 252 9036 28440 29850 34880 1537 1626 1778 5457 66660 8761 6473 4494 20420 3283 11860 31860 11020 1310 10390 3384 5259 131000 1004 295 1887 6498 3808 2834 7051 2517 596 3204 8211 3237 6160 1481 1029 1129 1444 15230 541 32240 2938 6791 838 650 2706 1875 1374
2020-07-08 44480 133900 9784 256 9042 28450 29870 34880 1546 1631 1790 5477 67500 8773 6551 4678 20810 3346 12000 32450 11170 1317 10500 3491 5276 131400 1012 298 1920 6548 3849 2843 7068 2525 600 3215 8231 3246 6167 1485 1030 1137 1456 15630 544 32270 2946 6808 851 656 2735 1891 1379
2020-07-09 44560 134000 9788 260 9047 28470 29890 34890 1555 1637 1805 5495 68480 8785 6592 4841 21210 3396 12130 32890 11410 1324 10590 3591 5291 131800 1019 300 1948 6596 3888 2854 7083 2533 603 3225 8255 3253 6171 1489 1032 1143 1467 15770 548 32290 2953 6822 866 661 2761 1904 1382
2020-07-10 44640 134100 9792 264 9053 28470 29910 34890 1563 1642 1813 5515 69290 8796 6611 4978 21590 3456 12270 33440 11670 1330 10680 3697 5304 132100 1025 303 1981 6641 3925 2861 7100 2540 606 3234 8273 3260 6176 1494 1034 1149 1477 15880 550 32320 2959 6836 878 664 2789 1915 1385
2020-07-11 44710 134100 9795 267 9058 28480 29930 34890 1571 1647 1823 5531 70140 8807 6681 5134 21890 3540 12400 33970 11780 1336 10760 3796 5318 132400 1030 306 2008 6684 3958 2867 7113 2547 608 3243 8286 3265 6181 1498 1036 1151 1484 16010 553 32330 2965 6850 888 669 2807 1924 1388
2020-07-12 44790 134100 9798 270 9063 28480 29940 34900 1578 1653 1831 5542 70900 8817 6713 5293 22200 3610 12520 34400 11920 1342 10830 3910 5329 132700 1036 308 2037 6724 3979 2869 7130 2552 611 3251 8298 3270 6186 1501 1039 1153 1493 16060 556 32360 2972 6863 897 673 2840 1934 1390
2020-07-13 44870 134100 9801 273 9069 28490 29960 34900 1586 1657 1833 5545 71630 8829 6760 5428 22470 3684 12740 34890 12290 1348 10880 4021 5341 132900 1040 310 2065 6758 4005 2873 7146 2558 613 3258 8314 3276 6191 1505 1040 1158 1501 16110 557 32380 2978 6876 904 678 2863 1943 1392
2020-07-14 44930 134200 9804 276 9074 28500 29970 34910 1594 1661 1840 5550 72290 8839 6812 5566 22720 3758 12810 35310 12630 1352 10930 4134 5352 133100 1043 311 2094 6792 4031 2875 7161 2565 615 3266 8328 3282 6196 1508 1041 1163 1506 16150 559 32400 2986 6884 912 682 2887 1957 1393
2020-07-15 44980 134200 9806 280 9077 28500 29980 34910 1601 1666 1842 5556 72970 8848 6863 5654 22930 3829 12900 35710 12860 1358 11000 4237 5363 133200 1047 312 2121 6820 4049 2880 7175 2571 617 3272 8340 3288 6199 1511 1043 1166 1511 16190 561 32410 2991 6898 919 685 2905 1968 1396

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths