COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-08


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 983 3121 20 322 5 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 75 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 44517 133928 706 9776 259 258 351 9046 609 28396 329 29846 589 1738 34914 6135 1542 1631 1817 5482 251 1966
Last daily increment 126 108 0 2 5 0 0 14 0 4 0 -1 0 -4 15 3 14 2 18 35 0 0
Last week 522 586 1 15 27 1 -2 40 3 28 1 52 2 0 96 22 50 44 130 71 0 1
Days since peak 90 95 93 84 33 88 91 84 95 99 78 91 80 75 101 95 74 84 66 78 92 93

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-08

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date07-0305-0606-08 --06-16 -- -- --06-1404-1205-29 --04-1504-1405-0704-09 -- --04-2404-2004-2906-2304-2004-0705-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 --06-2205-2005-2906-2505-1104-1204-0904-2904-1704-0905-05 -- -- --04-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1049 168 503 1688 241 30 172 120 2161 14 8 71 106 11 44 49 45 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 23 41 28 1624 9 10 999 76 8 4 137 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 97 36 53 72 68 11 48 18 29 24 -37 21 18 10 60 18 7 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 70 0 16 85 14 0 20 25 4 -20 32 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 88 37 35 51 67 23 49 20 20 39 9 27 20 30 74 26 12 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 82 30 31 81 39 18 15 30 23 22 33 11 30 18
Last total 67964 8786 6573 4606 21129 3359 12084 32796 11133 1314 10650 3602 5282 132300 1032 305 1962 6718 1704 4343 564 515 3889 2869 736 7099 2539 288 608 3231 8235 3256 6189 1485 1038 1188 1462 281 386 15332 527 553 32251 2991 407 224 6812 884 676 2875 1905 1394 807
Last daily increment 1223 21 139 154 487 50 153 782 181 5 172 100 22 820 25 4 36 145 8 5 3 1 48 21 4 36 15 0 6 20 30 17 11 8 2 30 16 0 2 51 8 5 8 21 3 4 25 38 21 97 24 10 2
Last week 6080 86 653 956 2916 372 978 3607 1088 40 982 758 115 3497 71 26 198 453 3 17 10 5 272 70 17 112 70 9 27 84 111 70 50 27 25 96 53 0 11 225 24 28 187 115 12 15 100 100 65 333 89 52 14
Days since peak 5 63 30 22 24 87 40 84 85 62 90 75 79 70 15 79 92 48 57 68 85 85 85 74 70 85 40 69 16 49 40 13 58 87 90 70 82 90 64 77 93 88

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-07-08 44517 133928 259 9046 28396 29846 34914 6135 1542 1631 1817 5482
2020-07-09 44700 134000 262 9065 28410 29850 34910 6135 1569 1636 1835 5538
2020-07-10 44830 134100 265 9071 28420 29850 34910 6135 1581 1641 1852 5552
2020-07-11 44890 134200 269 9077 28440 29860 34910 6136 1585 1646 1869 5552
2020-07-12 44900 134300 272 9077 28460 29860 34910 6144 1590 1651 1886 5552
2020-07-13 44910 134400 275 9079 28480 29870 34910 6146 1595 1656 1902 5563
2020-07-14 45060 134500 279 9087 28500 29870 34910 6150 1603 1661 1919 5579
2020-07-15 45190 134600 282 9099 28530 29870 34910 6152 1616 1666 1936 5616

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-08 67964 8786 6573 4606 21129 3359 12084 32796 11133 1314 10650 3602 5282 132300 1032 305 1962 6718 3889 2869 7099 2539 608 3231 8235 3256 6189 1485 1038 1188 1462 15332 527 553 32251 2991 6812 884 676 2875 1905 1394
2020-07-09 69010 8805 6827 4742 21450 3412 12240 34140 11320 1322 10750 3697 5301 132800 1039 310 2011 6741 3916 2905 7163 2550 612 3239 8244 3273 6196 1502 1050 1190 1495 15380 530 553 32280 2996 6858 913 676 2927 1922 1400
2020-07-10 70170 8823 6955 4875 21780 3463 12400 35110 11490 1330 10920 3797 5320 133500 1056 314 2060 6795 3975 2911 7176 2564 616 3261 8256 3288 6205 1508 1055 1208 1509 15440 533 555 32310 3018 6882 934 687 3020 1938 1407
2020-07-11 71210 8841 7110 5007 22110 3513 12560 35840 11670 1338 11090 3903 5338 133800 1062 319 2112 6826 3999 2911 7184 2574 617 3264 8270 3303 6214 1508 1059 1224 1518 15480 536 558 32340 3029 6887 964 692 3082 1954 1413
2020-07-12 71780 8858 7246 5137 22440 3563 12710 36580 11840 1346 11200 4011 5356 134100 1062 324 2165 6861 4026 2911 7189 2577 618 3271 8286 3318 6222 1513 1060 1239 1523 15520 539 561 32370 3030 6888 986 698 3144 1969 1420
2020-07-13 72410 8876 7296 5268 22780 3613 12870 37030 12020 1354 11310 4123 5374 134400 1062 329 2218 6923 4062 2923 7197 2583 623 3278 8302 3333 6231 1517 1061 1259 1541 15550 542 564 32400 3041 6893 1002 704 3202 1985 1426
2020-07-14 73650 8893 7317 5401 23120 3663 13020 38050 12200 1362 11490 4239 5392 135400 1085 333 2273 7038 4122 2939 7220 2598 631 3301 8320 3348 6240 1520 1071 1305 1561 15610 545 572 32420 3082 6919 1033 715 3329 2000 1433
2020-07-15 74790 8911 7452 5536 23460 3714 13180 39370 12370 1370 11670 4358 5410 136100 1108 338 2329 7157 4164 2957 7258 2610 637 3320 8338 3363 6249 1525 1075 1341 1574 15660 548 576 32450 3098 6947 1074 731 3440 2016 1439

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-07-08 44517 133928 259 9046 28396 29846 34914 6135 1542 1631 1817 5482
2020-07-09 44580 134000 261 9054 28400 29850 34920 6135 1552 1636 1829 5500
2020-07-10 44690 134100 264 9060 28420 29860 34930 6135 1562 1642 1847 5515
2020-07-11 44760 134200 268 9066 28450 29870 34940 6136 1571 1648 1866 5516
2020-07-12 44810 134200 271 9067 28470 29880 34940 6142 1579 1653 1885 5516
2020-07-13 44860 134400 275 9070 28500 29890 34950 6143 1587 1659 1904 5532
2020-07-14 45000 134500 279 9081 28520 29910 34960 6146 1596 1665 1924 5553
2020-07-15 45120 134600 283 9090 28540 29920 34960 6146 1608 1671 1943 5591

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-08 67964 8786 6573 4606 21129 3359 12084 32796 11133 1314 10650 3602 5282 132300 1032 305 1962 6718 3889 2869 7099 2539 608 3231 8235 3256 6189 1485 1038 1188 1462 15332 527 553 32251 2991 6812 884 676 2875 1905 1394
2020-07-09 68870 8791 6686 4742 21420 3395 12190 33650 11290 1320 10740 3713 5296 132700 1035 307 1998 6730 3920 2881 7114 2543 610 3236 8245 3260 6192 1490 1041 1193 1468 15400 528 554 32270 2992 6829 899 677 2893 1916 1395
2020-07-10 69970 8803 6801 4920 21810 3448 12320 34660 11480 1328 10900 3855 5314 133200 1048 311 2042 6759 3976 2888 7126 2554 613 3252 8265 3268 6198 1497 1043 1207 1476 15470 530 556 32310 3013 6850 915 683 2952 1934 1400
2020-07-11 70990 8815 6928 5083 22210 3501 12450 35520 11670 1335 11050 4003 5331 133600 1057 316 2095 6788 4000 2889 7134 2563 616 3260 8286 3277 6204 1498 1045 1223 1480 15530 533 559 32330 3029 6860 940 690 3009 1949 1404
2020-07-12 71640 8824 7048 5288 22610 3560 12590 36310 11880 1342 11180 4157 5349 133800 1063 320 2149 6823 4027 2890 7138 2567 619 3270 8306 3286 6212 1503 1048 1237 1482 15590 535 561 32360 3034 6867 955 697 3063 1964 1408
2020-07-13 72400 8835 7150 5449 23010 3613 12730 37240 12070 1350 11310 4318 5366 134200 1070 325 2204 6880 4060 2898 7151 2573 623 3279 8327 3296 6221 1507 1051 1259 1495 15650 538 564 32390 3049 6879 969 705 3123 1977 1415
2020-07-14 73590 8847 7249 5609 23430 3668 12870 38270 12280 1357 11460 4485 5384 135100 1086 330 2261 6977 4116 2915 7177 2587 629 3296 8349 3305 6229 1509 1055 1296 1514 15760 541 569 32410 3091 6906 996 714 3208 1996 1422
2020-07-15 74690 8861 7384 5777 23860 3721 13000 39700 12480 1365 11630 4660 5401 135700 1103 334 2320 7065 4157 2928 7205 2595 634 3310 8371 3315 6238 1514 1059 1323 1529 15830 545 572 32440 3108 6933 1031 723 3286 2015 1427

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-17

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WA
2020-07-08 44517 133928 259 9046 28396 29846 34914 6135 1542 1631 1817 5482 67964 8786 6573 4606 21129 3359 12084 32796 11133 1314 10650 3602 5282 132300 1032 305 1962 6718 3889 2869 7099 2539 608 3231 8235 3256 6189 1485 1038 1188 1462 15332 527 553 32251 2991 6812 884 676 2875 1905 1394
2020-07-09 44590 134000 260 9052 28400 29870 34910 6136 1550 1637 1834 5497 68600 8788 6680 4763 21480 3411 12210 33580 11270 1322 10750 3742 5298 132600 1035 309 2008 6718 3917 2878 7114 2544 609 3237 8252 3262 6195 1489 1041 1197 1470 15340 530 553 32300 2994 6827 890 676 2887 1910 1395
2020-07-10 44660 134100 263 9057 28400 29880 34910 6139 1558 1643 1849 5510 69450 8799 6775 4916 21880 3466 12360 34210 11410 1328 10890 3901 5313 133000 1048 311 2047 6779 3948 2888 7129 2552 614 3249 8268 3268 6203 1493 1044 1208 1476 15440 532 555 32320 3007 6842 911 682 2944 1926 1401
2020-07-11 44730 134200 265 9062 28400 29890 34910 6141 1566 1649 1870 5519 70300 8809 6836 5065 22230 3518 12520 35020 11530 1334 11000 4042 5328 133300 1061 315 2076 6847 3986 2897 7144 2560 617 3259 8283 3273 6211 1496 1047 1230 1482 15490 535 559 32350 3019 6856 925 691 3014 1940 1407
2020-07-12 44790 134300 267 9067 28410 29890 34910 6144 1573 1656 1887 5527 71330 8818 6905 5216 22570 3580 12710 36040 11650 1340 11130 4186 5342 133600 1072 318 2116 6926 4024 2906 7160 2568 621 3269 8301 3278 6218 1499 1050 1244 1490 15530 537 561 32390 3030 6864 945 703 3072 1955 1413
2020-07-13 44840 134400 269 9072 28410 29900 34910 6147 1581 1660 1906 5537 72190 8827 6969 5378 22920 3641 12880 36780 11750 1345 11250 4330 5355 133900 1083 320 2149 6990 4053 2914 7173 2574 624 3279 8316 3283 6225 1502 1053 1258 1497 15580 539 564 32420 3041 6876 964 713 3150 1965 1419
2020-07-14 44890 134400 271 9076 28410 29910 34920 6150 1590 1663 1919 5549 72980 8836 7029 5546 23260 3696 13020 37710 11850 1350 11360 4471 5369 134300 1095 323 2244 7082 4085 2925 7187 2581 627 3288 8330 3289 6231 1505 1055 1277 1503 15620 540 567 32450 3051 6886 983 721 3213 1977 1425
2020-07-15 44940 134400 273 9081 28410 29920 34920 6153 1595 1667 1935 5556 73960 8844 7098 5705 23530 3775 13200 38680 11940 1355 11490 4615 5380 134600 1106 326 2297 7157 4120 2936 7200 2587 630 3296 8344 3297 6237 1507 1058 1292 1508 15660 542 569 32480 3061 6897 997 729 3280 1987 1430
2020-07-16 44980 134400 275 9086 28410 29930 34920 6155 1601 1672 1950 5566 74770 8851 7162 5846 23790 3832 13380 39650 12030 1360 11600 4759 5391 134900 1117 330 2336 7230 4151 2948 7213 2593 633 3303 8358 3303 6242 1510 1060 1314 1513 15700 543 570 32500 3070 6907 1008 736 3341 1997 1435
2020-07-17 45030 134400 277 9091 28410 29930 34920 6158 1607 1677 1961 5577 75520 8859 7227 6002 24070 3886 13560 40540 12120 1366 11720 4899 5403 135300 1127 335 2373 7301 4181 2960 7225 2599 636 3311 8370 3308 6247 1512 1063 1333 1518 15730 544 571 32530 3079 6914 1026 743 3406 2005 1440

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths