COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-14


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-14

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0406-1904-2104-0804-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 5 7 10 226 15 963 31 944 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 22 0 0 22 3 98 1 23 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 75 22 13 22 15 93 20 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 44968 134451 709 9787 283 259 355 9078 610 28409 329 29929 595 1746 34984 6135 1588 1668 1931 5545 253 1968
Last daily increment 138 93 1 5 7 0 2 4 0 3 0 -2 0 0 17 -2 12 6 30 9 0 0
Last week 451 523 3 11 24 1 4 32 1 13 0 83 6 8 70 0 46 37 114 63 2 2
Days since peak 96 101 99 90 39 94 97 90 101 25 84 97 86 81 107 101 80 90 72 84 98 99

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-14

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date07-1005-0606-08 --06-16 -- --06-2406-14 --05-30 --04-1504-14 --04-09 -- --04-2404-2004-2906-23 --04-0705-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-3005-0506-2205-2005-2906-2505-11 --04-0904-2904-1704-0905-0504-29 -- --04-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1064 168 491 1648 673 293 171 120 2161 8 71 106 11 51 45 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 18 26 41 28 1586 9 999 76 8 4 137 25 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 104 36 53 72 79 68 49 18 29 -37 21 18 10 60 7 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 22 70 0 16 85 14 20 25 4 -20 32 13 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 95 37 36 52 72 65 50 20 20 9 27 20 30 73 12 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 37 82 30 31 81 39 15 30 23 22 33 32 10 30 18
Last total 74133 8845 7069 5787 24309 3710 13211 36327 12229 1603 11597 4346 5402 136466 1136 331 2337 7250 1738 4372 568 509 4409 2994 757 7218 2582 298 635 3337 8332 3315 6253 1510 1078 1272 1571 285 392 15582 551 612 32408 3069 428 244 6931 993 755 3362 1977 1403 826
Last daily increment 1300 9 45 153 582 54 179 836 175 4 175 174 20 900 40 8 92 161 11 3 0 1 132 24 2 25 13 1 6 22 10 6 5 6 7 22 42 -2 1 22 3 19 13 5 4 7 20 21 20 86 9 5 6
Last week 6169 59 496 1181 3180 351 1127 3531 1096 289 947 744 120 4166 104 26 375 532 34 29 4 -6 520 125 21 119 43 10 27 106 97 59 64 25 40 84 109 4 6 250 24 59 157 78 21 20 119 109 79 487 72 9 19
Days since peak 4 69 36 28 20 30 45 90 91 96 81 85 76 21 98 54 63 74 91 91 91 80 76 91 46 75 70 22 55 46 19 64 96 76 88 96 70 76 83 99 94

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-14 44968 134451 283 9078 29929 34984 1588 1668 1931 5545
2020-07-15 45120 134500 286 9092 29950 35000 1596 1674 1950 5586
2020-07-16 45200 134600 289 9101 29960 35010 1604 1680 1967 5602
2020-07-17 45270 134700 293 9107 29970 35020 1612 1686 1986 5620
2020-07-18 45370 134800 296 9112 29980 35030 1620 1691 2003 5620
2020-07-19 45390 134900 299 9112 29990 35040 1628 1697 2021 5620
2020-07-20 45390 134900 303 9112 30010 35050 1636 1703 2039 5620
2020-07-21 45530 135000 306 9118 30020 35070 1644 1709 2057 5634

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VA
2020-07-14 74133 8845 7069 5787 24309 3710 13211 36327 12229 1603 11597 4346 5402 136466 1136 331 2337 7250 1738 4372 4409 2994 757 7218 2582 635 3337 8332 3315 6253 1510 1078 1272 1571 15582 551 612 32408 3069 428 244 6931 993 755 3362 1977
2020-07-15 75080 8858 7280 6163 24930 3789 13420 37120 12410 1603 11750 4501 5421 136500 1136 335 2405 7492 1738 4376 4450 2994 758 7254 2599 640 3345 8352 3325 6263 1518 1083 1287 1571 15580 554 618 32440 3097 428 246 6960 1009 772 3525 2009
2020-07-16 76240 8871 7379 6429 25500 3867 13680 37770 12580 1603 11900 4668 5439 137200 1148 339 2476 7740 1739 4380 4616 3009 762 7269 2605 645 3360 8371 3335 6273 1524 1087 1301 1574 15690 558 623 32460 3107 431 248 6990 1024 790 3731 2037
2020-07-17 77390 8883 7469 6748 26050 3941 13870 38380 12750 1603 12070 4841 5456 137700 1176 343 2549 7938 1751 4384 4766 3036 764 7288 2614 652 3385 8391 3345 6283 1528 1091 1311 1587 15700 561 628 32490 3131 436 251 7017 1039 809 3878 2060
2020-07-18 78410 8896 7579 7069 26590 4024 14090 38870 12930 1603 12250 5024 5474 138000 1184 347 2627 8108 1753 4387 4902 3053 767 7306 2622 653 3399 8411 3355 6292 1530 1096 1322 1596 15700 564 633 32510 3136 440 253 7029 1053 828 4032 2065
2020-07-19 79000 8908 7670 7461 27140 4119 14340 39170 13100 1603 12370 5216 5492 138200 1188 351 2707 8262 1754 4391 5013 3057 770 7321 2626 655 3408 8432 3364 6302 1535 1100 1334 1599 15780 568 639 32540 3149 441 255 7034 1068 848 4192 2070
2020-07-20 79650 8921 7714 7714 27690 4199 14580 39610 13270 1603 12470 5417 5509 138200 1191 356 2791 8432 1755 4394 5120 3072 772 7322 2627 659 3415 8454 3374 6311 1537 1104 1341 1604 15800 571 644 32560 3155 442 257 7035 1082 868 4341 2071
2020-07-21 80900 8934 7789 7943 28240 4297 14830 40400 13450 1603 12640 5626 5527 139200 1227 360 2878 8663 1766 4397 5297 3095 776 7348 2641 665 3436 8475 3384 6321 1541 1109 1364 1637 15850 574 649 32590 3172 446 260 7059 1097 889 4455 2088

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-14 44968 134451 283 9078 29929 34984 1588 1668 1931 5545
2020-07-15 45050 134500 284 9087 29940 34990 1593 1674 1945 5568
2020-07-16 45120 134600 287 9096 29950 35000 1601 1680 1964 5585
2020-07-17 45190 134600 290 9102 29960 35020 1608 1686 1984 5606
2020-07-18 45280 134700 293 9107 29970 35030 1616 1692 2004 5608
2020-07-19 45340 134700 297 9109 29980 35040 1623 1698 2024 5610
2020-07-20 45390 134800 301 9111 29990 35050 1631 1704 2045 5621
2020-07-21 45500 134800 304 9118 30010 35060 1638 1710 2066 5635

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-21

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VA
2020-07-14 74133 8845 7069 5787 24309 3710 13211 36327 12229 1603 11597 4346 5402 136466 1136 331 2337 7250 1738 4372 4409 2994 757 7218 2582 635 3337 8332 3315 6253 1510 1078 1272 1571 15582 551 612 32408 3069 428 244 6931 993 755 3362 1977
2020-07-15 75060 8854 7156 5963 24630 3775 13420 36820 12390 1634 11740 4486 5417 136900 1139 333 2392 7404 1738 4374 4479 2998 759 7245 2593 640 3345 8346 3323 6261 1512 1080 1292 1574 15600 554 615 32430 3082 429 245 6951 1009 768 3455 1992
2020-07-16 76160 8866 7257 6197 25070 3862 13690 37480 12570 1689 11900 4648 5435 137600 1147 338 2462 7607 1739 4375 4601 3009 764 7263 2599 645 3360 8365 3333 6271 1518 1084 1305 1578 15670 558 624 32450 3095 432 246 6976 1028 785 3580 2013
2020-07-17 77280 8879 7352 6478 25560 3946 13920 38100 12760 1747 12070 4817 5452 138200 1168 342 2533 7766 1745 4377 4724 3031 767 7281 2609 651 3379 8384 3343 6281 1522 1088 1316 1585 15710 562 631 32480 3122 437 247 6998 1047 802 3681 2032
2020-07-18 78310 8890 7455 6760 26050 4038 14170 38580 12960 1809 12240 4994 5470 138700 1180 346 2607 7896 1747 4379 4839 3047 770 7295 2617 654 3393 8403 3352 6291 1525 1091 1328 1592 15750 565 638 32500 3132 440 249 7011 1067 819 3784 2043
2020-07-19 78990 8900 7572 7122 26550 4136 14440 38850 13150 1874 12380 5177 5487 139000 1189 350 2684 7999 1749 4381 4922 3054 773 7307 2621 657 3404 8423 3362 6300 1529 1096 1338 1595 15830 568 642 32530 3144 442 251 7018 1082 835 3877 2053
2020-07-20 79740 8911 7672 7366 27070 4230 14680 39260 13360 1945 12520 5368 5505 139400 1197 355 2763 8133 1750 4383 5019 3063 775 7312 2625 662 3413 8443 3372 6310 1532 1100 1345 1601 15870 571 648 32550 3154 443 253 7028 1096 853 3950 2063
2020-07-21 80970 8923 7765 7646 27590 4340 14950 40020 13560 2020 12690 5567 5522 140200 1215 359 2845 8340 1754 4385 5152 3078 779 7335 2640 668 3429 8463 3382 6320 1535 1105 1370 1618 15930 574 656 32570 3192 446 256 7052 1114 872 4072 2084

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-15 to 2020-07-23

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VA
2020-07-14 44968 134451 283 9078 29929 34984 1588 1668 1931 5545 74133 8845 7069 5787 24309 3710 13211 36327 12229 1603 11597 4346 5402 136466 1136 331 2337 7250 1738 4372 4409 2994 757 7218 2582 635 3337 8332 3315 6253 1510 1078 1272 1571 15582 551 612 32408 3069 428 244 6931 993 755 3362 1977
2020-07-15 45040 134500 283 9085 29960 34990 1594 1677 1943 5565 75060 8861 7166 6070 24860 3781 13410 36740 12380 1661 11730 4482 5418 136600 1136 334 2393 7321 1738 4372 4449 3004 759 7234 2590 639 3340 8351 3328 6266 1513 1079 1281 1571 15600 555 612 32440 3092 429 244 6952 1010 766 3433 1997
2020-07-16 45120 134500 286 9090 29980 35000 1600 1684 1959 5577 76070 8869 7229 6302 25350 3845 13600 37290 12530 1742 11850 4619 5435 137200 1143 338 2453 7397 1739 4372 4513 3021 762 7250 2597 644 3356 8365 3336 6276 1517 1084 1296 1571 15620 558 613 32470 3104 432 248 6970 1032 777 3512 2010
2020-07-17 45190 134600 290 9095 29990 35010 1606 1692 1976 5590 77060 8878 7290 6503 25820 3905 13820 37770 12670 1833 11950 4751 5453 137600 1156 342 2518 7493 1742 4372 4594 3039 765 7264 2605 648 3366 8376 3345 6287 1519 1088 1306 1573 15640 562 620 32480 3116 434 251 6988 1049 789 3578 2022
2020-07-18 45260 134600 295 9099 30010 35020 1612 1701 1985 5599 78210 8886 7350 6685 26190 3974 14070 38270 12800 2003 12050 4855 5472 137800 1181 346 2582 7606 1746 4373 4662 3056 767 7274 2612 653 3379 8389 3351 6298 1522 1091 1315 1584 15660 564 626 32500 3126 436 256 7005 1074 800 3671 2032
2020-07-19 45320 134600 299 9103 30030 35030 1618 1707 1997 5604 79170 8893 7407 6910 26570 4038 14330 38750 12910 2143 12150 4984 5487 138100 1192 349 2654 7731 1750 4376 4744 3076 769 7284 2619 657 3389 8400 3357 6307 1525 1093 1324 1592 15680 566 631 32520 3135 438 260 7018 1096 813 3753 2039
2020-07-20 45380 134700 302 9107 30060 35030 1624 1715 2010 5611 80100 8902 7461 7082 26820 4105 14540 39200 13030 2300 12200 5107 5502 138400 1202 353 2735 7844 1753 4377 4823 3093 770 7297 2625 661 3397 8410 3362 6316 1527 1095 1333 1599 15700 568 636 32530 3143 440 264 7033 1118 827 3827 2045
2020-07-21 45440 134700 306 9110 30080 35040 1629 1720 2022 5616 81040 8910 7511 7262 27170 4166 14770 39630 13130 2428 12270 5237 5517 138700 1216 356 2807 7936 1756 4379 4900 3110 772 7306 2631 665 3406 8421 3369 6326 1530 1097 1341 1607 15720 570 639 32550 3154 442 267 7045 1139 840 3902 2055
2020-07-22 45500 134700 309 9114 30090 35040 1634 1725 2035 5621 82000 8918 7559 7457 27470 4226 14970 40080 13200 2522 12350 5349 5531 138900 1228 359 2885 8029 1759 4381 4974 3125 773 7313 2636 670 3414 8431 3374 6333 1532 1099 1350 1613 15730 573 645 32570 3159 444 271 7058 1159 853 3981 2064
2020-07-23 45550 134700 313 9118 30100 35050 1640 1729 2046 5626 82870 8925 7606 7656 27640 4285 15160 40530 13290 2766 12410 5446 5547 139100 1243 362 2971 8116 1760 4383 5047 3138 774 7320 2641 674 3422 8437 3379 6342 1534 1101 1356 1616 15750 575 648 32590 3166 446 274 7071 1180 865 4061 2073

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths