COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-20


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 5 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 75 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 45312 135022 711 9805 308 260 359 9094 611 28422 328 30069 596 1753 35058 6136 1627 1691 2038 5639 255 1971
Last daily increment 12 94 0 5 8 0 0 2 0 2 0 23 0 0 13 0 3 2 12 20 0 2
Last week 344 571 2 18 25 1 4 16 1 13 -1 140 1 7 74 1 39 23 107 94 2 3
Days since peak 102 107 105 96 45 100 103 96 107 111 90 103 92 87 113 107 86 96 78 90 104 105

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-20

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-06 -- --06-16 -- --06-2206-1407-1205-29 --04-1504-14 --04-09 -- --04-2404-2004-2906-23 --04-0705-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-3005-05 --05-2005-2906-2505-1104-1204-0904-2904-1704-0905-05 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 168 1662 683 279 119 171 120 2161 8 71 106 11 47 45 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 18 41 28 1541 9 10 999 76 8 4 137 6 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 36 72 77 68 102 48 18 29 -37 21 18 10 60 7 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 22 0 16 85 14 0 20 25 4 -20 32 -45 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 37 52 70 65 106 49 20 20 9 27 20 30 73 12 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 37 30 31 81 39 18 15 30 23 22 33 18 10 30 18
Last total 80120 8902 8503 6929 28082 4239 14405 39485 13187 1835 12408 5173 5508 140906 1257 363 2784 7770 1758 4406 579 514 5072 3108 798 7301 2632 311 671 3462 8426 3370 6300 1545 1100 1358 1677 304 398 15715 578 648 32506 3189 452 262 7018 1164 837 4106 200 2031 1453 846
Last daily increment 632 6 0 193 585 96 217 301 0 4 85 140 17 372 3 6 23 55 6 10 1 0 90 3 5 6 3 3 1 29 2 9 7 4 2 3 25 5 0 9 7 1 11 15 1 2 -4 9 4 94 3 4 6 2
Last week 5987 57 1434 1304 3773 529 1194 3158 958 232 811 827 106 4440 121 32 447 520 20 34 11 5 663 114 41 83 50 13 36 125 94 55 47 35 22 86 106 19 6 133 27 36 98 120 24 18 87 171 82 744 13 54 50 20
Days since peak 75 34 28 36 8 52 96 97 102 87 91 82 27 104 60 69 80 97 97 97 86 82 97 52 81 76 61 52 25 70 99 102 82 94 102 76 94 89 105 100

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateUKEUBGFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-20 45312 135022 308 30069 35058 1627 1691 2038 5639
2020-07-21 45480 135100 312 30070 35070 1642 1696 2057 5648
2020-07-22 45560 135200 316 30080 35080 1648 1701 2076 5672
2020-07-23 45610 135300 320 30080 35090 1657 1706 2094 5692
2020-07-24 45700 135400 323 30090 35100 1665 1711 2112 5712
2020-07-25 45750 135500 327 30090 35120 1670 1716 2130 5712
2020-07-26 45750 135500 331 30100 35130 1672 1721 2149 5712
2020-07-27 45770 135600 335 30100 35140 1675 1726 2167 5725

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-20 80120 8902 8503 6929 28082 4239 14405 39485 13187 1835 12408 5173 5508 140906 1257 363 2784 7770 1758 4406 5072 3108 798 7301 2632 671 3462 8426 3370 6300 1545 1100 1358 1677 15715 578 648 32506 3189 452 7018 1164 837 4106 2031 1453 846
2020-07-21 81330 8912 8524 7116 28650 4302 14710 40380 13250 1857 12640 5298 5526 141400 1267 367 2839 7865 1762 4410 5213 3120 802 7335 2648 674 3462 8444 3379 6310 1549 1112 1379 1681 15720 582 655 32530 3197 453 7051 1198 845 4160 2062 1457 850
2020-07-22 82450 8922 8609 7298 29210 4412 14990 40980 13320 1880 12790 5423 5543 142300 1309 372 2895 7994 1766 4413 5361 3148 808 7348 2657 682 3479 8463 3388 6319 1555 1117 1399 1700 15730 585 662 32550 3208 457 7074 1230 862 4279 2076 1461 851
2020-07-23 83670 8932 8695 7480 29770 4519 15270 41610 13390 1902 12940 5545 5561 143200 1323 376 2948 8108 1770 4417 5561 3165 813 7368 2666 688 3501 8483 3397 6328 1562 1119 1414 1718 15770 589 668 32570 3228 462 7098 1302 877 4410 2094 1465 855
2020-07-24 84750 8942 8802 7660 30330 4627 15520 42280 13460 1924 13110 5668 5578 144000 1352 381 3003 8198 1774 4421 5749 3188 814 7385 2674 694 3524 8504 3406 6337 1568 1123 1432 1732 15860 592 674 32590 3242 468 7118 1347 892 4539 2107 1470 857
2020-07-25 85650 8953 8928 7841 30890 4720 15790 42810 13540 1946 13240 5792 5595 144600 1364 385 3058 8269 1778 4425 5853 3210 818 7401 2687 700 3528 8526 3415 6346 1572 1130 1444 1752 15880 596 681 32610 3254 472 7127 1403 909 4655 2117 1475 865
2020-07-26 86260 8963 9009 8025 31460 4871 16060 42960 13620 1967 13340 5917 5613 145000 1366 390 3113 8290 1783 4428 5968 3215 821 7404 2688 702 3553 8549 3424 6355 1575 1130 1454 1758 15880 600 687 32630 3285 473 7129 1438 914 4735 2117 1479 865
2020-07-27 86890 8973 9072 8210 32040 4992 16350 43280 13690 1989 13430 6044 5630 145400 1368 394 3169 8338 1787 4432 6075 3222 826 7409 2690 704 3573 8572 3433 6363 1578 1134 1457 1774 15880 603 694 32650 3297 473 7129 1451 919 4821 2120 1484 865

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateUKEUBGFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-20 45312 135022 308 30069 35058 1627 1691 2038 5639
2020-07-21 45400 135100 311 30080 35070 1634 1695 2055 5648
2020-07-22 45480 135200 315 30090 35080 1641 1700 2075 5669
2020-07-23 45550 135300 319 30110 35100 1649 1705 2094 5687
2020-07-24 45630 135400 323 30120 35110 1657 1710 2114 5707
2020-07-25 45700 135500 327 30140 35120 1664 1715 2134 5710
2020-07-26 45760 135500 331 30150 35130 1671 1720 2154 5712
2020-07-27 45800 135600 336 30160 35140 1677 1725 2175 5722

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-20 80120 8902 8503 6929 28082 4239 14405 39485 13187 1835 12408 5173 5508 140906 1257 363 2784 7770 1758 4406 5072 3108 798 7301 2632 671 3462 8426 3370 6300 1545 1100 1358 1677 15715 578 648 32506 3189 452 7018 1164 837 4106 2031 1453 846
2020-07-21 81260 8909 8555 7075 28550 4322 14650 40270 13300 1854 12550 5280 5525 141400 1268 367 2825 7878 1761 4408 5199 3122 801 7320 2644 675 3466 8439 3377 6307 1547 1105 1380 1687 15730 581 656 32520 3194 454 7034 1187 846 4201 2041 1455 849
2020-07-22 82380 8920 8740 7274 29130 4429 14920 40910 13470 1880 12700 5426 5543 142100 1298 372 2899 8009 1766 4411 5337 3146 807 7334 2653 682 3476 8457 3386 6317 1553 1110 1401 1704 15760 585 663 32540 3203 458 7056 1210 862 4336 2054 1458 851
2020-07-23 83570 8931 8927 7493 29720 4534 15200 41560 13650 1906 12860 5581 5560 142900 1314 376 2970 8129 1769 4415 5517 3163 812 7353 2661 687 3495 8476 3395 6326 1560 1114 1417 1721 15800 588 672 32560 3225 463 7078 1266 878 4478 2067 1462 855
2020-07-24 84690 8941 9160 7721 30310 4643 15450 42250 13820 1932 13020 5730 5578 143600 1339 382 3048 8220 1775 4419 5685 3186 816 7370 2670 693 3515 8495 3404 6335 1566 1119 1435 1736 15850 592 680 32580 3242 469 7097 1300 894 4619 2078 1466 858
2020-07-25 85680 8950 9389 7939 30910 4744 15710 42750 14000 1958 13170 5866 5595 144100 1355 387 3129 8292 1778 4423 5819 3205 820 7387 2683 698 3526 8514 3412 6344 1569 1125 1447 1751 15870 596 689 32600 3261 473 7111 1339 909 4739 2092 1470 866
2020-07-26 86450 8958 9567 8176 31520 4878 15990 42970 14190 1985 13310 6005 5613 144400 1366 392 3193 8313 1781 4426 5935 3215 824 7399 2685 702 3544 8533 3421 6353 1572 1129 1460 1757 15900 600 696 32620 3287 474 7123 1359 920 4852 2101 1473 866
2020-07-27 87250 8968 9763 8367 32150 4991 16280 43410 14380 2015 13450 6156 5631 144700 1377 397 3252 8351 1784 4430 6056 3227 829 7408 2688 706 3558 8553 3430 6362 1575 1134 1469 1767 15930 604 703 32640 3297 476 7133 1377 930 4964 2110 1476 867

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-21 to 2020-07-29

DateUKEUBGFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-20 45312 135022 308 30069 35058 1627 1691 2038 5639 80120 8902 8503 6929 28082 4239 14405 39485 13187 1835 12408 5173 5508 140906 1257 363 2784 7770 1758 4406 5072 3108 798 7301 2632 671 3462 8426 3370 6300 1545 1100 1358 1677 15715 578 648 32506 3189 452 7018 1164 837 4106 2031 1453 846
2020-07-21 45440 135100 310 30090 35070 1637 1700 2061 5649 81110 8916 8780 7104 28470 4301 14570 40130 13340 1855 12570 5295 5529 141500 1267 368 2849 7841 1761 4406 5182 3128 801 7326 2645 677 3469 8454 3379 6311 1550 1110 1380 1682 15740 580 664 32530 3200 456 7059 1192 852 4247 2045 1455 851
2020-07-22 45510 135200 314 30110 35080 1642 1704 2077 5659 82130 8926 9150 7298 28890 4385 14770 40600 13480 1875 12670 5434 5547 142200 1283 373 2905 7918 1764 4410 5303 3147 806 7340 2652 682 3489 8467 3387 6319 1554 1114 1397 1702 15760 584 671 32540 3216 460 7071 1212 868 4364 2052 1459 855
2020-07-23 45580 135300 318 30130 35090 1649 1708 2093 5668 83100 8934 9370 7520 29240 4471 14940 41050 13580 1895 12760 5576 5564 142900 1299 378 2965 7989 1767 4414 5425 3166 809 7354 2659 687 3508 8479 3395 6327 1558 1118 1413 1718 15770 587 678 32560 3227 464 7085 1234 885 4494 2060 1462 859
2020-07-24 45660 135400 321 30140 35100 1655 1710 2106 5677 83940 8942 9500 7771 29610 4560 15130 41470 13680 1916 12840 5730 5579 143700 1315 383 3005 8065 1769 4416 5552 3186 812 7363 2666 692 3522 8488 3402 6335 1562 1121 1429 1736 15790 590 685 32580 3241 467 7100 1265 901 4628 2067 1465 863
2020-07-25 45730 135500 325 30150 35100 1659 1714 2119 5683 85070 8949 10120 7964 29920 4644 15300 41840 13760 1930 12900 5849 5594 144300 1330 389 3067 8124 1772 4418 5666 3205 815 7375 2672 696 3537 8499 3410 6343 1565 1125 1446 1755 15800 593 690 32590 3254 470 7113 1293 917 4774 2077 1468 867
2020-07-26 45800 135600 329 30160 35110 1665 1718 2132 5690 86050 8956 10290 8163 30210 4721 15480 42160 13860 1945 12960 5991 5607 144600 1344 393 3292 8200 1774 4420 5802 3219 818 7386 2678 700 3553 8508 3416 6348 1568 1129 1461 1771 15820 596 696 32590 3264 473 7124 1318 935 4892 2086 1470 871
2020-07-27 45880 135600 333 30170 35120 1669 1722 2144 5696 86920 8961 11070 8378 30490 4824 15650 42470 13960 1960 13020 6149 5620 145100 1358 398 3430 8267 1777 4422 5926 3229 820 7398 2684 704 3566 8516 3423 6354 1570 1133 1478 1794 15830 598 701 32600 3275 476 7136 1343 951 5014 2095 1470 874
2020-07-28 45940 135700 336 30170 35120 1671 1725 2156 5701 87910 8968 12450 8578 30750 4902 15810 42730 14020 1976 13070 6282 5632 145400 1371 401 3516 8335 1778 4423 6044 3244 823 7409 2689 707 3578 8524 3430 6358 1573 1136 1494 1812 15840 600 707 32610 3285 478 7147 1369 964 5110 2104 1470 877
2020-07-29 45990 135700 340 30180 35130 1675 1729 2169 5706 88740 8973 12450 8794 30920 4970 15960 43050 14130 1990 13120 6394 5643 145800 1385 405 3600 8401 1780 4425 6157 3254 826 7417 2693 710 3587 8529 3436 6362 1576 1139 1509 1834 15840 602 712 32630 3295 480 7158 1393 980 5206 2112 1470 880

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths