COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-07-27


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-07-27

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1505-0304-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 31 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 39 27 20 19
Last total 45759 135569 713 9822 347 261 373 9125 613 28432 329 30096 202 596 1764 35112 6141 1676 1719 2206 5700 255 1978
Last daily increment 7 65 1 1 7 0 2 1 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 5 1 5 2 19 3 0 1
Last week 337 471 3 17 34 1 13 26 2 8 1 40 5 0 11 39 5 40 22 132 54 0 6
Days since peak 109 114 112 103 107 110 103 114 118 97 110 115 99 94 120 114 93 103 85 97 111 112

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-07-27

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-0607-17 --06-1607-22 --06-2407-2307-1205-2907-2204-1504-14 --04-09 --07-2304-2404-2004-2906-2307-2207-2205-2105-1205-0104-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1107-2104-0904-2904-16 --05-05 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 168 713 1662 100 697 3912 97 172 352 120 2161 8 108 71 106 11 47 135 54 14 112 42 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 41 28 1549 9 14 999 76 7 137 6 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 36 93 72 116 79 107 102 48 84 18 29 -37 117 21 18 10 60 111 113 27 41 27 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 0 16 85 14 100 20 25 3 32 -45 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 37 64 52 120 72 73 108 49 74 20 20 9 120 27 20 30 73 113 117 50 44 35 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 30 31 81 39 117 15 30 22 33 18 10 30 19
Last total 87618 8945 9187 8777 33408 4838 15912 44022 18418 1945 13334 7067 5630 148011 1446 408 3304 8494 1799 4418 581 569 5931 3429 836 7416 2709 332 709 3674 8529 3432 6332 1576 1175 1498 1838 317 409 15804 619 739 32645 3344 495 289 7131 1506 962 5632 228 2082 1518 893
Last daily increment 614 11 75 508 637 57 212 342 575 13 85 298 17 1076 18 7 -1 46 5 5 0 0 77 11 7 18 3 2 9 23 7 8 5 2 11 5 21 1 0 17 5 5 15 37 -1 0 4 15 10 556 6 4 17 1
Last week 6131 37 510 1611 4676 518 1278 3622 4839 108 773 1699 104 5890 178 34 386 606 36 12 1 53 725 250 30 92 57 17 35 176 86 46 23 28 68 109 133 9 9 67 31 63 125 125 34 20 80 285 102 1419 26 34 54 34
Days since peak 82 10 41 5 33 4 15 59 5 103 104 109 4 94 98 89 34 5 5 67 76 87 104 104 104 93 89 104 59 88 68 59 32 77 6 109 89 102 83 101 96 112 107

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-27 45759 135569 347 9125 30096 35112 1676 1719 2206 5700
2020-07-28 45890 135700 351 9131 30100 35120 1683 1723 2226 5718
2020-07-29 45960 135800 356 9133 30100 35130 1687 1727 2246 5738
2020-07-30 46000 135900 360 9140 30100 35140 1694 1730 2266 5749
2020-07-31 46100 136000 364 9146 30100 35150 1697 1734 2286 5768
2020-08-01 46150 136000 369 9150 30100 35160 1704 1738 2305 5768
2020-08-02 46150 136000 373 9150 30100 35170 1708 1741 2325 5768
2020-08-03 46160 136100 378 9151 30100 35170 1712 1745 2345 5770

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-27 87618 8945 9187 8777 33408 4838 15912 44022 18418 1945 13334 7067 5630 148011 1446 408 3304 8494 1799 569 5931 3429 836 7416 2709 709 3674 8529 3432 6332 1576 1175 1498 1838 15804 619 739 32645 3344 495 289 7131 1506 962 5632 228 2082 1518 893
2020-07-28 88830 8953 9257 9050 34110 4914 16120 44650 18740 1969 13550 7320 5647 148200 1472 414 3371 8587 1800 572 6050 3429 843 7443 2723 712 3674 8546 3441 6338 1581 1175 1522 1850 15860 624 750 32660 3355 497 292 7161 1551 973 6140 231 2090 1525 896
2020-07-29 90010 8961 9319 9370 34810 4985 16330 45360 19020 1994 13690 7605 5664 149300 1500 419 3440 8735 1808 574 6167 3429 851 7462 2735 717 3714 8564 3449 6344 1586 1175 1552 1875 15860 628 771 32680 3370 507 296 7182 1629 990 6820 234 2098 1533 901
2020-07-30 91240 8969 9424 9790 35520 5057 16540 46050 19310 2018 13830 7822 5681 150400 1527 424 3504 8875 1819 576 6325 3429 857 7481 2749 723 3731 8582 3458 6350 1594 1178 1566 1897 15890 633 779 32700 3390 511 299 7199 1709 1017 7450 237 2107 1542 911
2020-07-31 92310 8977 9534 10210 36230 5127 16740 46700 19570 2042 13970 8004 5698 151300 1556 429 3570 8988 1825 578 6459 3429 863 7498 2754 730 3749 8602 3466 6356 1599 1181 1588 1922 15920 637 789 32710 3420 517 302 7220 1780 1030 8160 240 2116 1550 911
2020-08-01 93350 8985 9631 10620 36950 5198 16940 46870 19840 2066 14100 8287 5715 152100 1585 435 3638 9055 1828 581 6563 3442 866 7511 2764 735 3763 8622 3474 6362 1603 1181 1601 1941 15940 642 797 32730 3424 525 305 7227 1883 1051 9020 243 2125 1558 921
2020-08-02 93880 8992 9723 10800 37670 5269 17150 47640 20110 2091 14170 8451 5731 152600 1615 440 3706 9086 1829 583 6638 3442 870 7511 2769 738 3801 8642 3483 6368 1605 1181 1615 1948 15960 646 800 32750 3441 525 309 7227 1931 1056 9730 247 2134 1567 922
2020-08-03 94480 9000 9815 11330 38410 5341 17350 48010 20370 2115 14260 8714 5748 153400 1645 445 3774 9128 1834 585 6715 3442 875 7522 2770 744 3819 8662 3491 6374 1606 1187 1615 1965 15990 651 803 32760 3467 525 312 7231 1948 1064 10290 250 2142 1575 923

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSE
2020-07-27 45759 135569 347 9125 30096 35112 1676 1719 2206 5700
2020-07-28 45830 135600 350 9128 30100 35120 1682 1721 2226 5702
2020-07-29 45900 135700 356 9132 30110 35130 1687 1725 2247 5723
2020-07-30 45950 135800 361 9138 30120 35140 1693 1729 2268 5735
2020-07-31 46030 135900 367 9143 30120 35150 1698 1732 2289 5753
2020-08-01 46090 135900 371 9147 30130 35160 1705 1736 2310 5755
2020-08-02 46130 136000 375 9147 30140 35170 1711 1739 2332 5757
2020-08-03 46170 136100 381 9149 30150 35180 1715 1743 2354 5769

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-27 87618 8945 9187 8777 33408 4838 15912 44022 18418 1945 13334 7067 5630 148011 1446 408 3304 8494 1799 569 5931 3429 836 7416 2709 709 3674 8529 3432 6332 1576 1175 1498 1838 15804 619 739 32645 3344 495 289 7131 1506 962 5632 228 2082 1518 893
2020-07-28 88790 8949 9249 8990 34120 4901 16080 44570 18550 1961 13460 7280 5646 148400 1471 413 3355 8597 1802 571 6049 3456 840 7433 2720 711 3688 8539 3440 6336 1579 1179 1521 1858 15810 622 752 32660 3361 498 293 7149 1542 974 5755 230 2088 1521 897
2020-07-29 89950 8955 9330 9270 34880 4997 16270 45310 18780 1981 13590 7546 5663 149300 1508 419 3432 8744 1809 577 6174 3494 846 7450 2733 716 3716 8554 3448 6342 1584 1185 1550 1883 15830 627 771 32680 3377 505 296 7168 1600 991 5960 234 2096 1526 901
2020-07-30 91160 8960 9431 9660 35650 5087 16450 46000 19070 2004 13720 7790 5679 150200 1542 425 3508 8881 1817 584 6341 3517 851 7468 2746 721 3737 8570 3457 6348 1592 1193 1565 1905 15840 632 782 32700 3399 509 300 7185 1666 1014 6244 238 2105 1532 911
2020-07-31 92260 8966 9540 10040 36430 5168 16620 46700 19370 2028 13850 8007 5696 151100 1578 431 3586 8997 1823 592 6485 3557 856 7484 2752 727 3757 8585 3465 6354 1597 1200 1588 1932 15860 636 793 32720 3432 515 304 7203 1723 1030 6537 241 2113 1540 912
2020-08-01 93330 8971 9646 10390 37230 5233 16790 46970 19690 2053 13980 8275 5712 151700 1612 438 3666 9072 1827 599 6608 3595 860 7498 2762 732 3776 8601 3474 6359 1601 1205 1601 1952 15880 641 802 32730 3437 521 308 7217 1792 1049 6871 244 2121 1545 921
2020-08-02 94040 8978 9734 10720 38040 5329 16970 47540 19980 2078 14100 8521 5729 152200 1647 444 3747 9099 1830 605 6716 3620 864 7506 2765 737 3805 8617 3482 6365 1604 1209 1614 1962 15930 646 805 32750 3460 524 311 7226 1831 1061 7167 246 2130 1550 921
2020-08-03 94810 8984 9843 11100 38860 5421 17160 47820 20290 2104 14210 8791 5746 152600 1681 451 3830 9145 1834 612 6818 3649 869 7517 2766 741 3826 8633 3490 6371 1607 1215 1620 1980 15960 651 809 32770 3480 527 315 7235 1854 1073 7447 249 2138 1555 922

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-05

DateUKEUBGDEFRITPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-07-27 45759 135569 347 9125 30096 35112 1676 1719 2206 5700 87618 8945 9187 8777 33408 4838 15912 44022 18418 1945 13334 7067 5630 148011 1446 408 3304 8494 1799 569 5931 3429 836 7416 2709 709 3674 8529 3432 6332 1576 1175 1498 1838 15804 619 739 32645 3344 495 289 7131 1506 962 5632 228 2082 1518 893
2020-07-28 45880 135700 351 9132 30100 35120 1683 1722 2224 5721 88810 8952 9264 8950 34190 4915 16100 44480 18970 1967 13470 7284 5648 148700 1478 413 3397 8608 1805 584 6093 3465 839 7429 2720 712 3687 8545 3441 6335 1582 1178 1519 1855 15820 622 754 32670 3353 499 294 7158 1548 982 5651 230 2094 1518 898
2020-07-29 45940 135700 356 9136 30110 35130 1689 1725 2243 5725 89830 8960 9343 9180 34850 5021 16320 44850 19970 1992 13570 7461 5663 149400 1505 419 3491 8707 1811 597 6221 3504 842 7443 2731 717 3701 8559 3449 6338 1586 1184 1536 1875 15840 626 766 32680 3376 505 298 7171 1580 1000 5774 233 2104 1522 903
2020-07-30 46000 135800 361 9140 30120 35130 1695 1727 2258 5735 90810 8968 9418 9410 35400 5141 16540 45190 20840 2014 13680 7674 5677 150100 1534 425 3577 8812 1817 608 6342 3559 846 7455 2740 722 3720 8572 3458 6341 1590 1191 1553 1898 15860 631 781 32700 3390 511 302 7189 1625 1017 5837 237 2110 1527 907
2020-07-31 46060 135900 366 9143 30120 35140 1700 1727 2274 5741 92030 8975 9484 9650 35920 5268 16770 45490 22030 2033 13780 7868 5690 150800 1563 431 3657 8909 1822 614 6455 3594 849 7466 2746 726 3734 8583 3465 6344 1593 1198 1570 1921 15870 634 794 32710 3408 515 307 7203 1679 1036 5938 240 2117 1530 911
2020-08-01 46100 135900 372 9146 30130 35140 1706 1727 2289 5747 93090 8982 9550 9940 36360 5392 17000 45810 22620 2045 13850 7981 5704 151400 1596 438 3750 9033 1828 624 6570 3624 852 7479 2752 730 3745 8596 3474 6345 1596 1202 1590 1942 15880 637 807 32720 3428 521 312 7213 1720 1056 6048 244 2125 1532 918
2020-08-02 46150 136000 377 9148 30140 35150 1712 1727 2303 5753 94110 8988 9608 10320 36610 5510 17200 46070 23240 2063 13900 8117 5716 151900 1623 444 3850 9161 1834 634 6685 3657 855 7490 2758 734 3760 8607 3483 6345 1599 1208 1607 1966 15880 640 820 32740 3444 525 316 7222 1760 1079 6203 247 2133 1536 921
2020-08-03 46190 136000 382 9150 30140 35150 1717 1727 2316 5761 95130 8995 9662 10620 37020 5613 17410 46370 23820 2076 13970 8230 5727 152300 1655 451 3972 9287 1840 643 6796 3694 858 7499 2763 737 3773 8617 3491 6345 1602 1215 1624 1991 15880 643 833 32740 3459 528 320 7233 1797 1099 6328 251 2140 1540 923
2020-08-04 46230 136100 389 9152 30140 35150 1721 1727 2328 5765 96210 9000 9714 10810 37390 5722 17620 46650 24380 2096 14030 8391 5738 152700 1684 458 4080 9411 1845 648 6893 3729 861 7509 2769 740 3785 8628 3499 6345 1605 1219 1643 2017 15890 646 846 32750 3474 530 325 7244 1828 1120 6450 255 2147 1545 923
2020-08-05 46250 136100 393 9154 30140 35160 1726 1727 2341 5770 97490 9006 9759 10970 37740 5828 17860 46970 24870 2111 14090 8526 5749 153200 1717 465 4183 9536 1850 652 6994 3763 864 7518 2774 742 3796 8641 3507 6345 1607 1223 1661 2041 15890 649 857 32760 3490 531 330 7257 1852 1135 6570 259 2154 1546 924

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths