COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-08-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-08-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-15 --04-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 27 20 19
Last total 46210 136376 719 9852 415 261 383 9163 616 28498 331 30177 209 598 1763 35171 6150 1738 1739 2480 5747 256 1981
Last daily increment 0 143 1 2 11 0 -3 9 0 26 2 28 0 1 0 5 1 6 1 48 3 0 0
Last week 249 590 3 16 47 -2 9 28 2 57 2 69 6 2 -1 42 3 44 14 211 17 1 2
Days since peak 117 122 120 111 115 118 111 122 126 105 118 123 107 102 128 122 101 111 105 119 120

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-08-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --07-2905-0607-17 --06-1607-20 --06-2407-2307-1205-2907-2204-1504-14 -- --07-30 --04-2404-2004-2906-23 -- --05-21 --05-1205-0204-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1307-3104-0904-29 --07-2805-0507-3107-3007-27 --04-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1076 168 787 1661 86 683 3154 90 172 363 120 2228 88 71 106 11 47 14 112 98 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 41 26 1569 9 14 999 76 6 137 48 17 432 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 123 36 93 72 113 79 107 102 48 84 18 29 109 21 18 10 60 27 41 28 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 0 16 85 16 110 20 25 90 32 106 109 114 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 114 37 63 52 119 72 77 108 49 74 20 20 116 27 20 30 73 50 44 32 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 30 31 81 41 127 15 30 130 33 121 123 109 10 30 19
Last total 247 95819 9005 9745 11315 39795 5388 17617 48869 20007 2115 14327 8884 5765 156801 1611 490 3844 9684 1849 4437 587 587 7402 3829 888 210 7545 2794 367 751 3937 8650 3513 6397 1620 1235 1753 2061 332 418 15857 658 862 32725 3570 566 333 7248 1847 1098 7090 264 2244 1616 961
Last daily increment 15 1154 10 38 298 857 86 212 857 196 11 144 345 18 1399 31 15 66 243 5 0 1 2 245 75 4 10 19 14 1 7 27 9 9 4 4 10 42 18 4 1 11 3 15 6 31 15 5 24 54 24 206 7 26 17 12
Last week 58 5685 43 467 1861 4840 413 1274 3508 1191 153 677 1387 106 5979 122 56 390 776 27 12 3 16 1069 269 34 37 83 61 19 27 168 77 61 48 31 45 190 173 8 7 59 26 82 67 148 43 22 77 232 95 939 27 119 61 50
Days since peak 6 90 18 49 15 41 12 23 67 13 111 112 5 102 106 97 42 75 84 94 112 112 112 101 97 112 67 96 76 67 40 83 4 117 97 7 91 4 5 8 104 120 115

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-05 to 2020-08-11

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITPLRO
2020-08-04 46210 136376 415 9163 28498 30177 35171 1738 2480
2020-08-05 46350 136400 424 9163 28510 30180 35180 1745 2504
2020-08-06 46380 136500 434 9171 28530 30190 35190 1757 2555
2020-08-07 46480 136600 443 9175 28540 30190 35190 1763 2610
2020-08-08 46540 136700 453 9180 28550 30200 35200 1768 2661
2020-08-09 46550 136700 464 9180 28570 30210 35210 1776 2712
2020-08-10 46550 136800 474 9180 28580 30210 35210 1778 2752
2020-08-11 46580 136900 485 9187 28600 30220 35220 1784 2819

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-05 to 2020-08-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-04 247 95819 9005 9745 11315 39795 5388 17617 48869 20007 2115 14327 8884 5765 156801 1611 490 3844 9684 1849 7402 3829 888 210 7545 2794 751 3937 8650 3513 6397 1620 1235 1753 2061 15857 658 862 32725 3570 566 333 7248 1847 1098 7090 264 2244 1616 961
2020-08-05 258 97200 9011 9800 11690 40570 5464 17830 49450 20150 2151 14520 9110 5781 157500 1650 497 3940 9960 1859 7718 3857 897 218 7563 2803 759 3976 8668 3522 6403 1625 1244 1753 2094 15870 663 873 32740 3587 580 337 7267 1888 1112 7397 270 2258 1629 961
2020-08-06 269 98300 9017 9900 12110 41330 5540 18030 50070 20310 2182 14640 9400 5797 158600 1675 506 4073 10200 1863 8042 3887 904 225 7578 2816 765 4011 8684 3530 6409 1631 1252 1786 2129 15890 667 889 32750 3610 593 342 7285 1928 1131 7536 278 2271 1642 968
2020-08-07 280 99400 9024 9990 12500 42090 5614 18230 50730 20470 2213 14790 9600 5813 159700 1697 516 4138 10490 1875 8373 3962 910 233 7593 2831 770 4037 8701 3539 6415 1636 1260 1828 2166 15910 672 912 32760 3650 606 346 7299 1967 1152 7747 283 2284 1654 978
2020-08-08 290 100400 9030 10070 12840 42830 5688 18430 51420 20630 2242 14880 9820 5829 160600 1717 526 4225 10730 1880 8642 4020 912 240 7601 2840 775 4038 8718 3547 6420 1641 1268 1851 2204 15920 676 917 32780 3667 619 350 7308 2007 1165 7947 289 2296 1666 991
2020-08-09 301 100900 9036 10140 13240 43590 5763 18630 51690 20800 2272 14950 10010 5844 161200 1735 537 4237 10930 1880 8890 4026 915 248 7613 2845 777 4085 8736 3555 6426 1647 1276 1861 2243 15940 681 917 32790 3683 632 354 7312 2047 1170 8043 291 2308 1677 991
2020-08-10 312 101400 9042 10230 13660 44350 5838 18840 51940 20970 2302 15010 10230 5860 161800 1739 547 4240 11090 1882 9079 4031 921 256 7621 2851 780 4104 8754 3564 6432 1649 1285 1872 2283 15950 686 928 32800 3699 646 358 7312 2087 1183 8153 296 2321 1689 992
2020-08-11 323 102500 9048 10280 14100 45120 5913 19040 52780 21140 2331 15150 10530 5875 163100 1761 559 4327 11420 1889 9353 4100 925 265 7640 2866 786 4128 8772 3572 6437 1653 1293 1908 2323 15970 690 945 32810 3727 659 362 7334 2128 1206 8351 304 2333 1701 1005

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-05 to 2020-08-11

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITPLRO
2020-08-04 46210 136376 415 9163 28498 30177 35171 1738 2480
2020-08-05 46250 136400 422 9164 28500 30180 35180 1745 2513
2020-08-06 46300 136500 430 9171 28500 30180 35180 1755 2558
2020-08-07 46380 136600 440 9175 28510 30190 35190 1761 2606
2020-08-08 46440 136700 446 9180 28510 30190 35190 1767 2652
2020-08-09 46470 136700 452 9181 28520 30190 35200 1775 2692
2020-08-10 46500 136800 464 9181 28530 30200 35200 1779 2735
2020-08-11 46570 136900 474 9186 28530 30200 35210 1786 2784

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-05 to 2020-08-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-04 247 95819 9005 9745 11315 39795 5388 17617 48869 20007 2115 14327 8884 5765 156801 1611 490 3844 9684 1849 7402 3829 888 210 7545 2794 751 3937 8650 3513 6397 1620 1235 1753 2061 15857 658 862 32725 3570 566 333 7248 1847 1098 7090 264 2244 1616 961
2020-08-05 255 97100 9008 9790 11700 40520 5459 17790 49310 20260 2128 14450 9060 5776 157500 1638 496 3888 9910 1856 7600 3861 896 214 7557 2803 755 3964 8663 3521 6401 1625 1241 1760 2089 15860 662 876 32740 3596 576 337 7259 1884 1110 7278 268 2251 1622 962
2020-08-06 264 98200 9015 9870 12140 41310 5535 17970 49930 20580 2143 14570 9290 5792 158400 1662 506 3991 10120 1861 7855 3895 904 220 7572 2815 761 3992 8679 3531 6407 1631 1250 1791 2127 15870 667 892 32750 3619 587 342 7276 1932 1127 7440 276 2260 1629 968
2020-08-07 272 99200 9021 9950 12550 42120 5606 18140 50590 20830 2162 14690 9520 5807 159300 1685 517 4062 10380 1870 8112 3957 910 226 7586 2828 766 4016 8695 3539 6413 1636 1258 1832 2165 15880 672 913 32760 3660 598 347 7289 1979 1146 7646 280 2278 1636 977
2020-08-08 282 100200 9026 10030 12910 42930 5669 18310 51260 21060 2181 14790 9760 5822 160100 1707 528 4146 10590 1876 8334 4011 913 232 7596 2837 771 4029 8710 3548 6418 1641 1266 1857 2207 15900 678 921 32770 3680 609 351 7298 2028 1161 7856 286 2298 1644 990
2020-08-09 292 100900 9032 10100 13340 43750 5747 18500 51600 21290 2204 14890 10000 5837 160600 1729 538 4197 10710 1879 8517 4037 917 238 7607 2842 775 4061 8726 3557 6424 1647 1275 1870 2245 15920 683 925 32780 3696 617 354 7308 2073 1173 8021 288 2308 1651 991
2020-08-10 303 101600 9037 10230 13790 44590 5824 18680 51930 21690 2226 14990 10240 5852 161100 1747 549 4246 10830 1883 8686 4058 923 245 7618 2845 780 4082 8743 3565 6429 1648 1283 1878 2284 15940 688 935 32790 3715 625 357 7315 2118 1187 8220 293 2317 1658 992
2020-08-11 315 102600 9044 10310 14240 45440 5899 18860 52830 22000 2242 15130 10510 5868 162100 1767 563 4345 11100 1889 8931 4105 928 252 7639 2861 787 4107 8759 3574 6435 1651 1291 1903 2327 15960 694 952 32810 3750 638 364 7334 2178 1207 8449 299 2326 1669 1001

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-05 to 2020-08-13

DateUKEUBGDEESFRITPLROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-04 46210 136376 415 9163 28498 30177 35171 1738 2480 247 95819 9005 9745 11315 39795 5388 17617 48869 20007 2115 14327 8884 5765 156801 1611 490 3844 9684 1849 7402 3829 888 210 7545 2794 751 3937 8650 3513 6397 1620 1235 1753 2061 15857 658 862 32725 3570 566 333 7248 1847 1098 7090 264 2244 1616 961
2020-08-05 46310 136500 423 9165 28500 30180 35180 1747 2490 261 96900 9010 9800 11630 40390 5452 17790 49250 20270 2130 14420 9010 5778 157000 1634 493 3918 9780 1856 7570 3849 895 214 7558 2803 755 3964 8667 3522 6403 1625 1243 1758 2087 15860 665 875 32740 3597 574 338 7262 1895 1114 7297 266 2252 1616 961
2020-08-06 46350 136500 432 9168 28500 30180 35180 1753 2525 274 97600 9015 9850 11950 40970 5513 17970 49630 20480 2142 14500 9150 5793 157800 1656 501 3966 9890 1863 7746 3887 900 219 7567 2811 759 3991 8679 3531 6407 1630 1251 1784 2108 15870 670 889 32750 3622 582 343 7275 1945 1131 7502 270 2266 1620 964
2020-08-07 46350 136600 441 9172 28500 30180 35190 1760 2551 289 98500 9019 9880 12280 41440 5569 18180 49870 20610 2157 14560 9410 5807 158400 1679 512 4023 10000 1868 7935 3934 906 223 7579 2820 763 4024 8690 3539 6411 1635 1257 1813 2139 15870 675 904 32760 3645 590 348 7288 1982 1149 7693 274 2287 1624 970
2020-08-08 46370 136700 452 9175 28500 30180 35190 1766 2582 303 99400 9023 9920 12570 41930 5625 18390 50170 20780 2168 14610 9600 5819 158900 1698 522 4076 10120 1873 8136 3982 912 228 7588 2829 766 4040 8701 3546 6415 1640 1265 1840 2165 15870 679 919 32770 3666 597 354 7297 2021 1168 7887 278 2304 1629 974
2020-08-09 46370 136700 461 9177 28500 30180 35190 1772 2618 317 100200 9026 9960 12880 42370 5688 18580 50430 20940 2179 14660 9930 5830 159400 1721 530 4118 10240 1877 8305 4022 917 231 7596 2837 769 4057 8711 3553 6418 1643 1271 1866 2188 15870 683 934 32770 3689 608 359 7308 2064 1187 8039 283 2320 1632 978
2020-08-10 46380 136700 471 9180 28500 30180 35200 1777 2652 331 101200 9029 10000 13180 42800 5737 18760 50720 21090 2189 14700 10160 5840 159700 1748 540 4160 10340 1881 8481 4070 922 234 7604 2843 772 4076 8719 3559 6421 1647 1278 1895 2219 15870 686 948 32780 3709 616 364 7317 2103 1206 8197 288 2335 1633 981
2020-08-11 46400 136800 481 9182 28500 30180 35200 1782 2684 344 102200 9032 10040 13510 43130 5792 18950 51050 21190 2201 14740 10390 5849 160000 1764 551 4207 10470 1885 8649 4113 927 239 7613 2851 775 4090 8728 3565 6423 1651 1283 1926 2248 15870 689 963 32790 3728 625 369 7328 2138 1224 8334 293 2349 1634 983
2020-08-12 46400 136800 490 9184 28500 30180 35200 1785 2722 357 103400 9035 10040 13800 43350 5852 19120 51200 21290 2214 14800 10600 5859 160300 1785 562 4243 10600 1888 8828 4153 932 244 7623 2858 777 4105 8736 3570 6426 1654 1288 1950 2278 15870 692 978 32790 3748 634 374 7336 2173 1244 8460 297 2357 1635 985
2020-08-13 46400 136900 499 9186 28500 30180 35200 1789 2762 370 104500 9037 10070 14080 43700 5895 19310 51490 21380 2222 14840 10850 5867 160600 1805 571 4278 10750 1892 9048 4191 937 249 7632 2866 780 4112 8743 3575 6429 1658 1293 1980 2301 15870 695 992 32790 3764 641 379 7344 2213 1263 8591 301 2361 1636 987

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths