COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-08-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-08-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-15 --04-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3121 20 322 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 27 20 19
Last total 46574 136898 721 9872 447 264 390 9202 617 28503 331 30202 212 602 1772 35205 6157 1807 1756 2700 5763 256 1986
Last daily increment 8 64 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 7 6 41 0 0 0
Last week 364 665 3 22 43 3 4 48 1 31 2 53 3 5 9 39 8 75 18 268 19 0 5
Days since peak 122 127 125 116 120 123 116 127 131 110 123 128 112 107 133 127 106 116 110 124 125

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-08-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --07-0905-0607-1708-0506-1607-2008-01 --07-2307-1205-2907-2204-1504-1407-26 --07-25 --04-2404-2004-2906-23 -- --05-21 --05-1205-0204-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-13 --04-0904-2908-04 --05-0508-03 --07-2704-1704-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1062 168 807 324 1661 86 213 3096 83 172 325 120 2230 24 79 71 106 11 47 14 112 98 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 41 26 1569 9 999 76 9 137 45 425 6 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 103 36 93 115 72 113 149 107 102 48 85 18 29 104 104 21 18 10 60 27 41 28 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 0 16 85 16 20 25 113 32 109 115 -45 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 94 37 62 109 52 119 149 77 109 49 76 20 20 117 112 27 20 30 73 50 44 32 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 30 31 81 41 15 30 132 33 125 110 18 11 30 19
Last total 313 101049 9028 10077 12842 44386 5723 18427 52298 21072 2270 14903 10408 5844 162938 1707 544 4149 10377 1858 4441 591 591 8186 4099 931 237 7636 2835 379 773 4145 8728 3567 6443 1657 1271 1896 2192 345 419 15874 685 957 32774 3669 603 356 7311 2031 1199 8918 277 2326 1686 998
Last daily increment 18 572 4 66 302 1007 65 163 292 423 61 76 198 15 515 13 9 13 70 1 0 1 1 77 13 4 2 5 1 0 1 56 14 8 -1 9 5 22 8 0 0 5 4 8 6 1 0 1 1 24 8 99 0 4 0 2
Last week 81 6384 33 370 1825 5448 421 1022 4286 1261 166 720 1869 97 6834 127 69 371 936 14 4 5 6 1029 345 47 37 110 55 13 29 235 87 63 50 41 46 185 149 17 2 28 30 110 55 130 52 28 87 238 125 1332 20 108 87 49
Days since peak 31 95 23 4 54 20 8 17 28 72 18 116 117 14 15 107 111 102 47 80 89 99 117 117 117 106 102 117 72 101 81 72 45 88 122 102 5 96 6 13 114 109 125 120

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLRO
2020-08-09 46574 136898 9872 447 9202 28503 30202 35205 1807 2700
2020-08-10 46610 137000 9875 454 9202 28500 30210 35210 1807 2736
2020-08-11 46660 137100 9878 465 9205 28510 30220 35220 1807 2806
2020-08-12 46770 137200 9882 474 9216 28510 30220 35220 1807 2868
2020-08-13 46800 137200 9885 483 9220 28510 30230 35230 1812 2932
2020-08-14 46900 137300 9888 490 9229 28520 30230 35240 1816 3000
2020-08-15 46950 137400 9891 492 9235 28520 30240 35240 1820 3061
2020-08-16 46960 137500 9894 494 9236 28530 30240 35250 1828 3109

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-09 313 101049 9028 10077 12842 44386 5723 18427 52298 21072 2270 14903 10408 5844 162938 1707 544 4149 10377 8186 4099 931 237 7636 2835 773 4145 8728 3567 6443 1657 1271 1896 2192 15874 685 957 32774 3669 603 356 7311 2031 1199 8918 277 2326 1686 998
2020-08-10 325 101800 9034 10210 13150 45220 5793 18580 52500 21100 2296 15030 10450 5860 163500 1725 553 4218 10520 8238 4168 932 243 7646 2846 779 4152 8744 3576 6449 1657 1279 1898 2222 15900 690 973 32790 3703 603 361 7319 2072 1205 9040 282 2340 1699 999
2020-08-11 337 102900 9039 10250 13450 46030 5863 18730 53350 21160 2319 15150 10760 5875 164800 1744 562 4290 10800 8458 4244 936 250 7666 2861 785 4183 8760 3586 6456 1660 1287 1939 2245 15920 695 989 32800 3734 617 365 7340 2113 1229 9240 288 2354 1711 1012
2020-08-12 350 104300 9045 10310 13750 46840 5932 18880 54070 21250 2343 15290 11130 5890 166200 1778 571 4356 11030 8669 4325 949 257 7688 2871 787 4232 8777 3595 6462 1669 1294 1982 2270 15920 700 1006 32810 3759 633 370 7350 2154 1252 9530 293 2368 1723 1020
2020-08-13 363 105400 9050 10410 14050 47630 6000 19030 54770 21340 2364 15400 11440 5905 167300 1795 579 4443 11300 8816 4407 959 264 7707 2881 794 4273 8794 3604 6469 1675 1301 2005 2304 15920 705 1023 32820 3778 642 374 7373 2195 1281 9740 297 2382 1734 1027
2020-08-14 375 106400 9056 10480 14350 48430 6069 19180 55470 21340 2386 15520 11690 5921 168400 1814 588 4513 11530 8985 4491 963 271 7724 2892 798 4316 8812 3613 6475 1679 1308 2033 2332 15930 710 1041 32830 3812 648 378 7385 2236 1299 9970 301 2397 1745 1037
2020-08-15 389 107300 9061 10550 14650 49240 6139 19320 56170 21340 2407 15620 11970 5936 169400 1832 596 4577 11770 9161 4577 970 278 7737 2903 804 4316 8830 3622 6482 1686 1316 2059 2358 15950 715 1059 32840 3827 653 383 7396 2277 1311 10180 302 2411 1756 1045
2020-08-16 403 107800 9067 10620 14960 50050 6209 19470 56440 21850 2429 15690 12160 5951 169800 1848 605 4585 11900 9253 4664 974 285 7742 2906 806 4369 8849 3631 6489 1694 1323 2073 2363 15960 720 1078 32850 3832 653 387 7397 2319 1318 10260 302 2426 1768 1047

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLRO
2020-08-09 46574 136898 9872 447 9202 28503 30202 35205 1807 2700
2020-08-10 46600 136900 9874 454 9203 28510 30210 35210 1812 2738
2020-08-11 46650 137000 9876 463 9207 28510 30210 35210 1821 2796
2020-08-12 46730 137200 9879 472 9216 28510 30220 35220 1832 2850
2020-08-13 46780 137300 9881 481 9221 28520 30220 35230 1842 2906
2020-08-14 46860 137300 9884 487 9229 28520 30230 35230 1852 2965
2020-08-15 46910 137400 9886 493 9233 28520 30230 35240 1862 3020
2020-08-16 46950 137500 9888 498 9235 28530 30240 35240 1873 3071

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-09 313 101049 9028 10077 12842 44386 5723 18427 52298 21072 2270 14903 10408 5844 162938 1707 544 4149 10377 8186 4099 931 237 7636 2835 773 4145 8728 3567 6443 1657 1271 1896 2192 15874 685 957 32774 3669 603 356 7311 2031 1199 8918 277 2326 1686 998
2020-08-10 320 101700 9033 10140 13160 45050 5758 18570 52500 21200 2276 14990 10540 5859 163400 1718 550 4171 10480 8254 4140 933 242 7644 2838 776 4161 8742 3574 6447 1657 1276 1902 2227 15880 689 970 32780 3682 604 359 7315 2060 1209 9090 280 2338 1693 999
2020-08-11 333 102700 9039 10190 13480 45900 5822 18730 53390 21370 2285 15110 10800 5875 164500 1738 560 4235 10790 8468 4231 938 249 7663 2853 782 4190 8757 3583 6454 1659 1283 1933 2250 15900 694 993 32790 3712 615 364 7333 2101 1230 9310 284 2355 1706 1010
2020-08-12 344 104000 9044 10250 13800 46750 5890 18870 54120 21550 2295 15230 11120 5890 165600 1764 571 4294 11040 8680 4320 948 256 7684 2863 785 4232 8773 3593 6460 1667 1291 1969 2276 15900 699 1022 32800 3739 629 368 7343 2143 1252 9610 288 2373 1714 1017
2020-08-13 355 105100 9050 10330 14150 47600 5960 19020 54870 21750 2308 15330 11440 5905 166600 1782 581 4364 11310 8846 4395 957 263 7701 2872 791 4271 8789 3602 6467 1673 1298 1996 2311 15910 704 1041 32810 3760 638 372 7361 2185 1277 9860 292 2390 1727 1025
2020-08-14 367 106100 9055 10390 14510 48470 6029 19160 55580 21910 2324 15460 11710 5920 167500 1802 590 4431 11570 9045 4493 963 270 7717 2884 796 4308 8805 3611 6474 1678 1305 2023 2337 15920 709 1067 32820 3800 644 377 7374 2225 1295 10130 297 2408 1738 1035
2020-08-15 381 107100 9061 10490 14840 49360 6086 19300 56300 22030 2339 15570 11970 5936 168400 1824 599 4502 11820 9227 4585 968 277 7729 2896 801 4327 8821 3620 6481 1683 1312 2052 2365 15940 714 1088 32830 3820 651 382 7386 2274 1310 10370 301 2426 1751 1046
2020-08-16 395 107800 9066 10570 15210 50260 6143 19450 56580 22350 2356 15660 12220 5951 168900 1843 607 4543 11970 9321 4650 973 284 7739 2902 805 4368 8838 3629 6488 1689 1320 2072 2373 15950 719 1099 32840 3840 653 386 7392 2313 1323 10520 305 2444 1759 1048

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-18

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-09 46574 136898 9872 447 9202 28503 30202 35205 1807 2700 313 101049 9028 10077 12842 44386 5723 18427 52298 21072 2270 14903 10408 5844 162938 1707 544 4149 10377 8186 4099 931 237 7636 2835 773 4145 8728 3567 6443 1657 1271 1896 2192 15874 685 957 32774 3669 603 356 7311 2031 1199 8918 277 2326 1686 998
2020-08-10 46660 137000 9876 455 9208 28510 30210 35210 1820 2725 330 102200 9035 10120 13170 44760 5779 18630 52980 21210 2270 15020 10680 5858 164000 1727 552 4234 10560 8346 4165 937 246 7654 2851 779 4164 8742 3576 6452 1659 1282 1921 2218 15880 690 976 32780 3718 613 362 7332 2083 1221 9150 285 2353 1697 1005
2020-08-11 46710 137100 9879 464 9214 28510 30220 35220 1833 2762 347 103000 9041 10160 13460 45460 5834 18800 53540 21340 2270 15110 10930 5871 165000 1743 561 4273 10710 8445 4206 944 250 7673 2857 783 4195 8755 3586 6460 1664 1289 1944 2241 15880 694 990 32790 3737 620 365 7343 2107 1237 9320 288 2371 1708 1011
2020-08-12 46760 137100 9882 471 9220 28510 30220 35220 1849 2802 366 103700 9046 10200 13760 45840 5884 18950 54130 21500 2277 15210 11150 5880 165800 1761 570 4316 10860 8523 4254 950 259 7691 2867 786 4217 8768 3595 6465 1670 1296 1968 2266 15880 698 1005 32800 3757 628 369 7355 2132 1252 9480 291 2387 1717 1016
2020-08-13 46790 137200 9885 478 9226 28510 30220 35230 1858 2839 382 104500 9050 10230 14050 46150 5934 19090 54800 21640 2294 15300 11400 5890 166400 1777 581 4365 11010 8627 4303 956 264 7707 2875 789 4237 8781 3604 6468 1675 1303 1994 2291 15880 702 1022 32800 3773 635 374 7367 2156 1271 9640 293 2401 1725 1020
2020-08-14 46820 137200 9888 485 9230 28510 30230 35240 1870 2880 400 105200 9054 10270 14320 46360 5980 19250 55400 21770 2306 15390 11610 5899 166700 1793 592 4403 11150 8650 4349 962 268 7724 2881 791 4254 8793 3610 6468 1679 1309 2017 2311 15880 705 1046 32810 3793 642 378 7379 2187 1286 9780 296 2414 1732 1024
2020-08-15 46850 137300 9890 491 9233 28510 30230 35250 1883 2924 416 105900 9058 10310 14590 46720 6025 19400 56040 21910 2320 15470 11850 5907 167300 1807 602 4436 11310 8669 4399 968 279 7740 2885 794 4278 8803 3617 6468 1684 1314 2042 2339 15890 708 1062 32810 3809 649 381 7390 2209 1301 9910 297 2427 1736 1027
2020-08-16 46880 137300 9892 497 9235 28510 30230 35250 1890 2966 433 106400 9061 10340 14860 46960 6067 19540 56660 22130 2335 15540 12060 5913 167900 1822 616 4476 11480 8685 4446 973 291 7755 2892 795 4292 8812 3625 6468 1688 1321 2067 2362 15890 711 1077 32820 3824 657 385 7402 2234 1320 10030 299 2439 1736 1031
2020-08-17 46900 137300 9894 503 9237 28510 30230 35260 1893 3009 450 107000 9065 10380 15110 47180 6107 19680 57350 22220 2344 15610 12280 5919 168300 1836 627 4506 11640 8685 4491 978 296 7770 2897 796 4300 8822 3633 6468 1693 1324 2088 2382 15890 714 1091 32820 3839 664 388 7413 2252 1334 10140 301 2448 1739 1032
2020-08-18 46920 137400 9895 508 9239 28510 30230 35270 1898 3050 466 107600 9068 10410 15340 47530 6144 19810 57920 22310 2357 15670 12500 5924 168800 1849 637 4532 11800 8685 4537 983 301 7783 2901 798 4310 8830 3639 6468 1697 1330 2109 2401 15890 717 1105 32820 3853 670 391 7422 2272 1346 10250 303 2457 1745 1033

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths