COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-08-12


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-08-12

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0904-0404-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-15 --04-2104-0704-06
Peak daily increment 984 3120 20 322 7 10 226 15 945 31 944 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 94 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 22 31 7 22 0 0 23 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 24 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 16 21 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 27 20 19
Last total 46706 137293 724 9900 482 266 391 9213 621 28579 333 30247 216 605 1774 35225 6161 1830 1764 2807 5774 256 1991
Last daily increment 77 168 1 15 11 0 0 5 0 -2 0 46 2 0 1 10 20 9 3 43 4 0 1
Last week 293 675 5 39 47 3 1 32 4 79 2 62 6 5 6 38 8 56 21 241 8 0 6
Days since peak 125 130 128 119 123 126 119 130 134 113 126 131 115 110 136 130 109 119 113 127 128

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-08-12

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --07-1505-0607-1708-0606-1607-2007-27 --07-2307-1205-29 --04-1504-14 -- --07-2508-0804-2404-2004-2906-23 -- --05-2108-0705-1205-0204-1404-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-2904-30 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-0804-0904-29 -- --05-05 -- --07-2704-1704-2204-0604-11
Peak daily increment 1064 168 815 321 1662 86 212 3176 88 172 120 2230 78 148 71 106 11 47 14 7 112 98 6 10 64 453 56 137 23 17 41 26 1569 9 16 999 76 137 408 6 105 25 12
Days from 100 to peak 109 36 93 116 72 113 144 107 102 48 18 29 104 133 21 18 10 60 27 27 41 28 -7 0 17 23 22 17 42 21 0 16 85 16 118 20 25 32 115 -45 7 15 2
Days from peak/2 to peak 100 37 62 110 52 119 144 77 108 49 20 20 112 135 27 20 30 73 50 132 44 32 19 19 21 20 27 18 57 35 30 31 81 41 134 15 30 33 110 18 11 30 18
Last total 361 104201 9052 10205 13837 47033 5903 18988 54666 21501 2404 15231 11010 5891 166026 1814 572 4346 10753 1875 4450 593 592 8765 4352 953 246 7672 2878 396 790 4238 8744 3598 6463 1678 1289 1989 2290 356 420 15885 695 996 32797 3734 627 375 7380 2144 1268 9527 290 2352 1722 1011
Last daily increment 9 1175 14 27 362 942 79 188 737 0 92 128 259 18 1499 33 6 148 230 1 6 0 1 212 109 7 0 15 15 4 7 43 0 13 6 12 7 45 52 5 1 -5 2 15 10 26 9 7 37 46 16 305 2 8 8 5
Last week 95 5708 39 316 1898 5448 382 1012 4149 1077 254 652 1406 93 5922 160 57 345 732 23 13 6 5 1018 419 41 23 78 67 19 30 210 60 63 32 42 45 164 164 16 1 36 26 96 41 116 34 36 98 202 106 1197 18 53 73 33
Days since peak 28 98 26 6 57 23 16 20 31 75 119 120 18 4 110 114 105 50 83 5 92 102 120 120 120 109 105 120 75 104 84 75 48 91 4 125 105 99 16 117 112 128 123

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-19

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTRO
2020-08-12 46706 137293 9900 482 9213 28579 30247 35225 1830 1764 2807
2020-08-13 46780 137300 9904 492 9218 28590 30250 35230 1838 1767 2873
2020-08-14 46880 137500 9908 502 9228 28610 30250 35240 1848 1769 2936
2020-08-15 46930 137500 9912 512 9234 28620 30260 35240 1857 1772 2993
2020-08-16 46940 137600 9916 522 9234 28640 30270 35250 1867 1774 3042
2020-08-17 46940 137700 9919 532 9235 28650 30280 35250 1868 1777 3098
2020-08-18 46980 137800 9923 543 9241 28670 30280 35260 1878 1780 3150
2020-08-19 47070 137900 9927 554 9247 28680 30290 35270 1887 1782 3200

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-12 361 104201 9052 10205 13837 47033 5903 18988 54666 21501 2404 15231 11010 5891 166026 1814 572 4346 10753 1875 8765 4352 953 246 7672 2878 790 4238 8744 3598 6463 1678 1289 1989 2290 15885 695 996 32797 3734 627 375 7380 2144 1268 9527 2352 1722 1011
2020-08-13 375 105400 9058 10360 14150 47870 5968 19160 55100 21660 2404 15380 11260 5907 167200 1847 581 4437 10910 1880 9110 4430 961 257 7697 2883 796 4272 8760 3607 6470 1679 1298 2012 2323 15910 700 1006 32810 3770 640 375 7386 2278 1290 9740 2366 1734 1024
2020-08-14 390 106500 9063 10450 14450 48680 6032 19330 55860 21810 2404 15500 11510 5922 168400 1880 590 4501 11040 1884 9340 4511 965 264 7714 2894 800 4319 8776 3617 6476 1684 1306 2044 2364 15920 704 1028 32820 3804 646 383 7399 2336 1310 10010 2380 1745 1034
2020-08-15 404 107400 9069 10520 14750 49490 6095 19500 56580 21810 2434 15600 11750 5937 169400 1913 599 4566 11190 1889 9540 4594 973 269 7727 2906 807 4319 8792 3626 6483 1691 1314 2070 2405 15940 709 1048 32830 3817 651 388 7411 2405 1322 10230 2394 1757 1042
2020-08-16 418 107900 9074 10590 15050 50280 6158 19660 56870 22260 2483 15660 12000 5952 169800 1948 608 4576 11250 1894 9650 4678 977 270 7732 2909 808 4370 8808 3635 6490 1699 1322 2087 2448 15950 713 1053 32830 3823 651 390 7413 2432 1330 10330 2409 1768 1043
2020-08-17 433 108500 9079 10670 15350 51080 6220 19830 57400 22450 2509 15730 12240 5967 170400 1983 617 4581 11340 1898 9760 4765 982 273 7735 2913 811 4389 8824 3644 6496 1701 1330 2098 2491 15960 718 1058 32840 3832 652 390 7417 2432 1345 10460 2423 1779 1043
2020-08-18 448 109600 9085 10720 15650 51890 6283 19990 58280 22620 2526 15850 12500 5982 171500 2018 626 4627 11440 1903 10060 4853 991 281 7755 2935 818 4416 8841 3653 6503 1706 1338 2134 2536 15980 722 1077 32850 3863 665 401 7442 2491 1376 10690 2437 1790 1052
2020-08-19 463 110900 9090 10760 15960 52710 6347 20160 58990 22660 2589 15980 12750 5997 172900 2055 635 4747 11620 1908 10320 4942 998 284 7771 2949 823 4462 8858 3662 6509 1716 1346 2176 2581 15980 727 1097 32860 3888 677 408 7467 2551 1393 10970 2451 1801 1058

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-19

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTRO
2020-08-12 46706 137293 9900 482 9213 28579 30247 35225 1830 1764 2807
2020-08-13 46740 137300 9900 491 9217 28590 30250 35230 1837 1766 2855
2020-08-14 46810 137400 9902 500 9227 28600 30250 35230 1845 1768 2913
2020-08-15 46850 137500 9903 507 9232 28610 30250 35240 1854 1771 2968
2020-08-16 46880 137600 9904 514 9233 28620 30260 35240 1863 1773 3020
2020-08-17 46910 137700 9906 527 9234 28640 30260 35250 1869 1775 3068
2020-08-18 46960 137800 9908 539 9239 28650 30270 35260 1877 1778 3129
2020-08-19 47030 137900 9912 552 9248 28660 30270 35260 1885 1780 3184

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-12 361 104201 9052 10205 13837 47033 5903 18988 54666 21501 2404 15231 11010 5891 166026 1814 572 4346 10753 1875 8765 4352 953 246 7672 2878 790 4238 8744 3598 6463 1678 1289 1989 2290 15885 695 996 32797 3734 627 375 7380 2144 1268 9527 2352 1722 1011
2020-08-13 375 105200 9053 10270 14130 47750 5938 19090 55060 21650 2408 15320 11260 5905 166800 1832 582 4394 10920 1876 8970 4410 960 250 7689 2881 793 4271 8753 3604 6469 1680 1295 2009 2321 15890 699 1009 32800 3752 636 376 7383 2203 1282 9660 2365 1735 1019
2020-08-14 391 106200 9056 10360 14440 48590 6000 19220 55810 21820 2412 15430 11520 5920 167800 1861 592 4446 11050 1880 9200 4508 966 257 7705 2890 797 4312 8768 3613 6475 1683 1302 2036 2361 15900 703 1028 32810 3785 644 381 7389 2242 1301 9900 2381 1746 1029
2020-08-15 409 107100 9062 10450 14740 49440 6056 19340 56520 21930 2425 15530 11790 5935 168700 1892 603 4501 11190 1883 9430 4598 974 264 7718 2900 802 4330 8783 3623 6482 1690 1308 2062 2401 15910 708 1048 32820 3799 650 386 7399 2305 1317 10090 2396 1759 1037
2020-08-16 427 107700 9067 10540 15060 50300 6116 19470 56790 22210 2446 15620 12050 5950 169100 1925 614 4527 11250 1885 9590 4658 979 268 7725 2903 805 4373 8798 3632 6489 1698 1315 2081 2437 15920 712 1056 32830 3805 652 389 7404 2333 1330 10190 2413 1765 1038
2020-08-17 446 108400 9072 10640 15400 51170 6165 19610 57250 22420 2468 15710 12290 5965 169600 1959 625 4561 11320 1889 9780 4731 984 273 7732 2907 808 4400 8813 3641 6496 1700 1321 2090 2480 15940 717 1065 32840 3821 654 392 7410 2360 1347 10380 2429 1775 1039
2020-08-18 465 109500 9078 10710 15750 52060 6224 19750 58130 22610 2485 15830 12580 5980 170600 1994 636 4620 11480 1894 10070 4843 991 281 7752 2927 814 4430 8828 3650 6503 1704 1328 2131 2522 15950 721 1082 32840 3858 666 399 7430 2423 1369 10590 2445 1788 1050
2020-08-19 486 110700 9084 10790 16100 52960 6285 19880 58780 22800 2506 15950 12890 5995 171700 2028 647 4691 11660 1899 10350 4948 1000 290 7770 2937 818 4472 8843 3659 6509 1712 1335 2172 2565 15950 726 1105 32850 3886 680 404 7442 2496 1389 10940 2462 1796 1058

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-13 to 2020-08-21

DateUKEUBEBGDEESFRITPLPTROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-08-12 46706 137293 9900 482 9213 28579 30247 35225 1830 1764 2807 361 104201 9052 10205 13837 47033 5903 18988 54666 21501 2404 15231 11010 5891 166026 1814 572 4346 10753 1875 8765 4352 953 246 7672 2878 790 4238 8744 3598 6463 1678 1289 1989 2290 15885 695 996 32797 3734 627 375 7380 2144 1268 9527 2352 1722 1011
2020-08-13 46740 137400 9900 490 9219 28590 30250 35230 1837 1766 2844 382 105000 9056 10290 14120 47500 5957 19140 55200 21640 2404 15330 11290 5904 166800 1833 585 4354 10880 1879 8950 4392 959 258 7690 2885 793 4262 8767 3604 6470 1678 1294 2012 2298 15900 703 1013 32800 3750 636 379 7380 2203 1284 9700 2373 1732 1017
2020-08-14 46760 137500 9900 499 9223 28610 30250 35240 1845 1768 2887 401 105800 9061 10350 14410 48220 6008 19270 55860 21760 2404 15430 11570 5914 167600 1856 595 4381 11020 1881 9170 4462 966 264 7703 2893 796 4286 8777 3614 6478 1684 1299 2039 2320 15900 707 1031 32810 3766 643 384 7396 2269 1302 9880 2386 1741 1021
2020-08-15 46780 137600 9903 508 9226 28620 30250 35240 1850 1770 2933 419 106600 9066 10400 14700 48860 6054 19390 56460 21880 2412 15520 11860 5924 168200 1878 606 4421 11140 1883 9350 4522 972 269 7717 2902 799 4312 8785 3622 6485 1690 1303 2070 2340 15900 711 1048 32810 3781 650 388 7411 2323 1319 10080 2397 1748 1026
2020-08-16 46800 137700 9908 518 9230 28640 30250 35250 1857 1771 2977 435 107400 9072 10440 15000 49460 6096 19520 57140 21990 2431 15620 12160 5932 168800 1900 617 4463 11280 1886 9550 4592 978 275 7727 2909 801 4331 8794 3629 6489 1696 1307 2101 2365 15910 714 1065 32820 3795 660 392 7426 2388 1337 10230 2409 1753 1030
2020-08-17 46810 137700 9912 528 9232 28660 30250 35260 1863 1773 3023 453 108100 9078 10480 15330 50000 6137 19630 57850 22090 2444 15720 12440 5940 169200 1924 630 4512 11420 1888 9770 4665 984 280 7739 2917 804 4350 8803 3637 6491 1701 1311 2135 2381 15910 719 1085 32820 3808 668 398 7441 2453 1359 10410 2418 1755 1030
2020-08-18 46810 137800 9913 538 9235 28680 30250 35270 1869 1773 3070 470 108800 9083 10520 15630 50560 6173 19750 58660 22190 2465 15810 12720 5946 169600 1947 643 4564 11560 1890 9980 4727 990 284 7751 2925 806 4359 8809 3643 6492 1704 1315 2166 2402 15910 722 1104 32820 3820 677 403 7456 2511 1380 10560 2425 1756 1030
2020-08-19 46810 137900 9916 548 9237 28700 30250 35280 1873 1774 3121 486 109400 9088 10550 15960 51020 6208 19840 59450 22280 2481 15900 13080 5951 169900 1972 657 4606 11680 1892 10230 4793 995 289 7765 2933 807 4370 8816 3650 6496 1708 1319 2200 2434 15920 726 1123 32820 3830 685 407 7470 2577 1401 10690 2432 1758 1030
2020-08-20 46820 138000 9917 560 9239 28710 30250 35290 1877 1775 3175 503 110000 9093 10610 16310 51450 6243 19920 60190 22350 2491 15990 13400 5954 170100 2000 672 4648 11830 1893 10470 4868 1000 293 7775 2940 809 4377 8822 3656 6496 1712 1322 2236 2453 15920 729 1142 32830 3840 693 412 7480 2644 1424 10820 2441 1758 1030
2020-08-21 46820 138100 9918 572 9241 28730 30250 35300 1881 1775 3230 518 110600 9098 10650 16670 51820 6274 20020 60920 22430 2504 16070 13710 5954 170400 2027 685 4682 11970 1895 10720 4944 1005 297 7786 2947 810 4387 8828 3661 6499 1716 1325 2274 2472 15920 732 1161 32830 3849 703 418 7490 2694 1448 10920 2446 1758 1031

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths