COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-09-08


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-09-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-0604-0604-15 --04-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-0304-1904-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1509-0304-1204-0704-06
Peak daily increment 964 3095 20 328 7 10 226 15 946 30 943 5 3 13 167 781 153 23 31 44 98 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 23 33 7 22 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 -36 6 21 25 15 19 17 154 18 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 17 23 16 21 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 25 26 22 20 16 31 23 160 21 20 19
Last total 41586 141307 747 9912 692 274 441 9336 628 29594 336 30613 290 203 626 1778 35563 6244 2136 1846 3967 5838 264 2018
Last daily increment 32 217 1 3 15 0 4 5 0 78 0 38 1 2 1 1 10 1 12 3 41 1 0 4
Last week 72 1038 13 14 44 0 16 14 2 400 0 74 17 12 7 1 66 9 58 19 246 18 0 7
Days since peak 151 155 155 146 150 153 146 157 161 140 153 158 142 142 137 163 157 136 146 5 149 154 155

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-09-08

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date09-0307-2105-0607-1708-0606-16 --07-2706-2407-2307-1205-2907-2204-1504-1307-2209-0307-2108-0604-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-2905-2108-0305-1205-0204-1204-1404-1404-2504-2904-1405-28 --08-04 --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-1105-1808-2909-0307-2805-0507-2808-2107-2704-1704-2204-0604-1104-23
Peak daily increment 35 1065 168 785 314 1662 214 683 2947 92 171 323 125 2226 24 16 78 140 72 105 11 46 180 66 14 6 112 99 6 10 64 459 56 137 23 29 40 25 1566 9 18 3573 100 10 5 137 45 25 386 6 104 25 12 16
Days from 100 to peak 108 115 36 93 116 72 144 79 107 102 48 84 18 28 100 110 100 131 21 18 10 60 127 151 27 23 41 28 -9 0 17 23 22 17 41 113 0 17 85 16 121 59 147 143 89 32 103 131 115 -45 7 15 2 -89
Days from peak/2 to peak 157 106 37 63 110 52 144 72 78 108 49 76 20 19 113 149 108 133 27 20 30 74 127 154 50 128 44 32 17 19 21 20 27 18 56 126 30 31 81 41 137 49 151 161 131 33 119 143 111 18 11 30 18 4
Last total 781 127464 9203 11682 21611 73890 8230 22542 68484 29976 3916 17939 15086 6782 189653 2153 917 5220 13823 1973 4474 611 609 11915 5928 1185 372 8186 3156 484 997 4955 9135 3799 6736 1862 1595 2585 2909 406 433 15996 807 1393 32992 4298 854 486 7780 2912 1864 13792 351 2686 1949 1168 252
Last daily increment 11 504 7 30 -4 1115 100 132 703 138 26 121 82 52 445 1 9 2 65 0 6 0 0 44 25 15 0 7 12 1 1 13 8 4 1 2 2 0 12 3 0 5 0 0 13 22 1 4 9 5 26 95 1 2 0 0 4
Last week 103 3684 21 338 1266 6514 614 745 2668 908 293 574 697 320 3933 39 76 156 506 21 7 3 3 414 267 52 0 95 50 23 31 114 81 43 31 32 89 59 130 7 1 32 17 57 44 122 33 18 75 118 103 688 13 45 18 26 19
Days since peak 5 49 125 53 33 84 43 76 47 58 102 48 146 148 48 5 49 33 137 141 132 77 32 10 110 36 119 129 149 147 147 136 132 147 103 35 111 102 75 118 28 113 10 5 42 126 42 18 43 144 139 155 150 138

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateUKEUBGESFRITPLRO
2020-09-08 41586 141307 692 29594 30613 35563 2136 3967
2020-09-09 41590 141400 704 29640 30630 35570 2154 4008
2020-09-10 41600 141600 712 29670 30650 35580 2168 4049
2020-09-11 41610 141700 719 29710 30660 35580 2176 4090
2020-09-12 41620 141900 724 29750 30680 35590 2188 4130
2020-09-13 41620 142000 731 29780 30690 35590 2192 4170
2020-09-14 41620 142100 736 29810 30710 35600 2196 4210
2020-09-15 41640 142300 748 29850 30730 35610 2210 4251

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WI
2020-09-08 781 127464 9203 11682 21611 73890 8230 22542 68484 29976 3916 17939 15086 6782 189653 2153 917 5220 13823 1973 11915 5928 1185 8186 3156 484 997 4955 9135 3799 6736 1862 1595 2585 2909 15996 1393 32992 4298 854 7780 2912 1864 13792 2686 1168
2020-09-09 792 129100 9207 11720 21680 74890 8323 22660 69160 30140 4006 18050 15200 6827 191200 2185 931 5283 14070 1976 12150 6028 1195 8220 3172 488 1017 5001 9148 3806 6747 1875 1606 2653 2950 16010 1425 33000 4304 876 7805 2968 1901 14110 2698 1183
2020-09-10 803 129900 9212 11800 21770 75870 8411 22770 69630 30300 4076 18160 15320 6871 192100 2195 945 5325 14210 1980 12250 6090 1202 8243 3177 495 1026 5014 9162 3813 6757 1882 1617 2663 2972 16020 1450 33000 4339 888 7816 2988 1920 14320 2711 1188
2020-09-11 813 130700 9216 11870 21850 76840 8501 22880 70090 30440 4125 18260 15430 6915 193000 2215 958 5351 14340 1982 12330 6147 1220 8267 3190 501 1034 5031 9176 3819 6766 1888 1628 2679 3002 16040 1459 33020 4357 896 7829 3020 1944 14480 2724 1192
2020-09-12 823 131300 9221 11930 21950 77800 8588 22990 70580 30590 4184 18360 15550 6958 193700 2227 972 5380 14400 1994 12390 6200 1222 8282 3200 502 1039 5031 9190 3826 6775 1892 1639 2690 3042 16050 1469 33030 4371 901 7842 3049 1965 14640 2738 1205
2020-09-13 833 131700 9225 11980 22040 78760 8675 23100 70830 30730 4259 18420 15660 7000 194000 2229 985 5399 14410 1995 12440 6248 1227 8288 3202 503 1042 5078 9205 3833 6784 1896 1650 2701 3043 16060 1469 33040 4374 903 7842 3059 1972 14770 2751 1205
2020-09-14 842 132000 9229 12040 22130 79730 8763 23210 70990 30870 4275 18470 15780 7043 194200 2232 999 5399 14430 1996 12460 6262 1231 8295 3206 505 1044 5084 9220 3840 6792 1897 1661 2705 3047 16070 1469 33050 4385 903 7853 3072 1975 14830 2765 1205
2020-09-15 852 132700 9234 12070 22230 80700 8851 23320 71680 31010 4300 18580 15890 7087 194800 2237 1013 5399 14540 1998 12530 6304 1244 8311 3220 506 1049 5101 9235 3846 6801 1901 1672 2716 3070 16080 1475 33060 4407 906 7865 3085 2002 14920 2778 1206

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateUKEUBGESFRITPLRO
2020-09-08 41586 141307 692 29594 30613 35563 2136 3967
2020-09-09 41590 141400 699 29610 30620 35570 2149 4007
2020-09-10 41590 141500 707 29630 30630 35580 2161 4047
2020-09-11 41600 141700 715 29660 30650 35590 2171 4088
2020-09-12 41610 141800 722 29680 30660 35600 2182 4129
2020-09-13 41610 141900 730 29710 30670 35610 2190 4170
2020-09-14 41620 142100 740 29740 30680 35610 2198 4212
2020-09-15 41630 142200 751 29770 30690 35620 2211 4253

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WI
2020-09-08 781 127464 9203 11682 21611 73890 8230 22542 68484 29976 3916 17939 15086 6782 189653 2153 917 5220 13823 1973 11915 5928 1185 8186 3156 484 997 4955 9135 3799 6736 1862 1595 2585 2909 15996 1393 32992 4298 854 7780 2912 1864 13792 2686 1168
2020-09-09 792 128200 9206 11720 21790 74680 8320 22590 69010 30110 3963 18030 15180 6821 190400 2159 930 5248 13960 1976 12000 5968 1192 8205 3167 488 1005 4969 9144 3804 6741 1870 1603 2611 2939 16000 1407 33000 4307 863 7799 2937 1876 13920 2694 1178
2020-09-10 807 129000 9211 11790 22030 75670 8427 22660 69470 30280 4023 18130 15290 6868 191200 2172 946 5284 14110 1980 12110 6029 1200 8226 3173 494 1013 4984 9155 3812 6750 1876 1617 2623 2962 16010 1429 33010 4338 873 7811 2959 1893 14090 2709 1184
2020-09-11 823 129700 9215 11860 22290 76670 8516 22730 69920 30440 4079 18230 15400 6915 191800 2189 961 5313 14240 1983 12190 6089 1214 8249 3186 499 1022 5002 9167 3819 6759 1883 1631 2639 2991 16010 1439 33020 4356 881 7822 2989 1914 14230 2723 1188
2020-09-12 838 130400 9219 11920 22550 77660 8612 22790 70410 30610 4137 18330 15510 6961 192400 2203 977 5342 14310 1990 12250 6146 1219 8265 3195 502 1028 5011 9179 3826 6769 1887 1645 2651 3028 16020 1449 33030 4375 887 7835 3017 1932 14340 2738 1201
2020-09-13 854 130900 9223 11980 22810 78640 8706 22850 70660 30780 4200 18400 15620 7009 192600 2212 993 5369 14330 1992 12300 6197 1225 8274 3197 503 1033 5047 9191 3833 6778 1891 1659 2665 3036 16030 1455 33040 4377 892 7841 3034 1946 14410 2752 1201
2020-09-14 871 131500 9227 12040 23060 79650 8799 22910 70910 30970 4248 18480 15730 7056 192800 2224 1010 5387 14380 1995 12350 6237 1232 8282 3201 506 1039 5064 9203 3840 6787 1893 1674 2681 3045 16030 1461 33050 4383 895 7849 3053 1960 14480 2767 1201
2020-09-15 887 132500 9232 12100 23330 80680 8897 22970 71650 31140 4304 18590 15840 7104 193400 2240 1026 5407 14500 1998 12480 6311 1242 8309 3218 509 1049 5088 9216 3847 6796 1898 1688 2708 3075 16030 1472 33070 4399 904 7863 3079 1985 14610 2782 1205

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-17

DateUKEUBGESFRITPLROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WI
2020-09-08 41586 141307 692 29594 30613 35563 2136 3967 781 127464 9203 11682 21611 73890 8230 22542 68484 29976 3916 17939 15086 6782 189653 2153 917 5220 13823 1973 11915 5928 1185 8186 3156 484 997 4955 9135 3799 6736 1862 1595 2585 2909 15996 1393 32992 4298 854 7780 2912 1864 13792 2686 1168
2020-09-09 41590 141400 700 29610 30640 35560 2148 4017 799 128400 9206 11740 22080 74640 8295 22600 68940 30100 3984 18030 15200 6836 190800 2176 940 5284 13930 1979 12020 6035 1192 8211 3164 490 1013 4979 9139 3809 6757 1871 1609 2618 2936 16000 1417 32990 4298 870 7791 2949 1883 13920 2717 1179
2020-09-10 41590 141600 708 29650 30670 35560 2162 4062 813 129000 9209 11790 22290 75580 8381 22700 69340 30230 4022 18120 15280 6879 191600 2187 956 5311 14000 1984 12080 6094 1198 8225 3168 495 1021 4994 9141 3816 6763 1876 1619 2635 2955 16000 1428 32990 4307 875 7796 2969 1897 14030 2733 1182
2020-09-11 41600 141600 716 29700 30690 35570 2171 4113 824 129600 9210 11820 22450 76600 8491 22790 69730 30330 4063 18200 15370 6936 192300 2198 973 5335 14080 1989 12150 6161 1204 8241 3171 499 1029 5003 9144 3825 6772 1881 1631 2649 2978 16010 1437 33000 4315 880 7800 2978 1913 14100 2754 1187
2020-09-12 41610 141700 726 29750 30700 35570 2179 4172 836 130200 9213 11860 22660 77540 8603 22870 70120 30430 4103 18270 15440 6999 192800 2207 991 5361 14150 1995 12210 6207 1211 8253 3174 505 1037 5031 9147 3836 6782 1886 1645 2661 2999 16010 1443 33000 4323 886 7800 2992 1935 14180 2776 1196
2020-09-13 41620 141700 737 29800 30720 35570 2189 4226 846 130600 9214 11890 22800 78350 8715 22950 70530 30520 4134 18340 15520 7056 193600 2215 1005 5385 14210 2002 12260 6242 1217 8259 3175 510 1046 5050 9147 3846 6790 1890 1659 2672 3024 16010 1449 33000 4330 889 7802 3006 1954 14250 2799 1206
2020-09-14 41630 141800 746 29860 30720 35570 2196 4285 856 131100 9215 11920 22950 79280 8828 23020 70910 30620 4165 18400 15600 7121 194000 2223 1022 5403 14260 2009 12320 6278 1222 8268 3177 514 1055 5063 9147 3858 6796 1892 1672 2683 3047 16020 1456 33010 4336 893 7805 3019 1971 14320 2825 1211
2020-09-15 41630 141900 756 29900 30730 35570 2205 4337 864 131500 9216 11950 23090 80160 8929 23080 71320 30670 4192 18460 15670 7183 194500 2230 1049 5416 14320 2014 12370 6317 1227 8275 3178 517 1063 5076 9147 3869 6799 1895 1684 2693 3072 16020 1463 33010 4342 897 7807 3030 1988 14370 2856 1216
2020-09-16 41640 141900 766 29950 30750 35580 2215 4391 874 131900 9218 11980 23210 80860 9017 23150 71680 30750 4215 18520 15720 7244 194900 2236 1067 5427 14360 2020 12410 6358 1231 8284 3179 522 1071 5093 9147 3881 6802 1897 1697 2702 3092 16020 1468 33010 4349 901 7807 3043 2007 14430 2878 1222
2020-09-17 41650 142000 776 29990 30770 35580 2227 4447 888 132300 9218 12000 23320 81440 9114 23210 72020 30820 4235 18560 15770 7288 195200 2242 1085 5446 14410 2026 12460 6389 1235 8291 3179 525 1078 5105 9147 3894 6808 1900 1708 2714 3116 16020 1476 33010 4352 905 7807 3052 2026 14470 2915 1226

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths