COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-09-12


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-09-12

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-0604-0604-1509-0204-1104-0804-1504-0403-3104-2104-0804-03 --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-1509-0204-1204-0704-06
Peak daily increment 964 3096 20 328 9 7 10 226 15 946 30 943 5 13 167 781 153 23 31 44 98 8 60
Days from 100 to peak 23 33 7 22 111 0 0 22 3 18 1 23 -11 6 21 25 15 19 17 153 18 -2 14
Days from peak/2 to peak 17 23 16 21 159 22 13 22 15 14 20 18 18 26 22 20 16 31 23 159 21 20 19
Last total 41623 141974 754 9923 717 274 453 9352 630 29747 337 30735 302 218 633 1783 35603 6253 2182 1860 4127 5846 265 2020
Last daily increment 9 86 4 4 4 0 3 4 1 0 0 0 2 7 2 2 6 1 13 5 27 0 0 0
Last week 72 1064 18 16 41 0 17 22 3 329 1 162 18 20 9 6 62 10 62 20 234 11 1 7
Days since peak 155 159 159 150 10 154 157 150 161 165 144 157 162 146 141 167 161 140 150 10 153 158 159

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-09-12

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date09-0307-2205-0607-17 --06-16 --07-2706-2407-2307-1205-2907-2204-1504-1307-2209-0307-21 --04-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-1505-21 --05-1205-02 -- --04-1404-2504-2904-1405-2809-0508-04 --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-1305-1808-29 --07-2805-0507-28 --07-2704-1704-2204-0604-1104-23
Peak daily increment 34 1062 168 785 1662 214 683 2947 92 171 323 125 2226 24 15 78 72 105 11 46 175 65 14 112 99 64 459 56 137 23 25 29 40 25 1566 9 19 3573 106 5 137 45 386 6 104 25 12 16
Days from 100 to peak 108 116 36 93 72 144 79 107 102 48 84 18 28 100 110 100 21 18 10 60 127 137 27 41 28 17 23 22 17 41 149 113 0 17 85 16 123 59 147 89 32 103 115 -45 7 15 2 -89
Days from peak/2 to peak 157 107 37 63 52 144 72 78 108 49 76 20 19 113 150 108 27 20 30 74 127 140 50 44 32 21 20 27 18 56 160 126 30 31 81 41 139 49 151 131 33 119 111 18 11 30 18 4
Last total 810 131210 9220 11895 22734 78586 8650 23029 70604 30470 4292 18426 15427 6999 193693 2217 969 5314 14327 1988 4480 616 613 12600 6141 1218 415 8295 3213 526 1057 5032 9190 3825 6834 1906 1632 2685 3047 434 435 16027 821 1449 33008 4411 899 505 7829 3040 2034 14332 359 2722 1987 1209 266
Last daily increment 7 814 6 45 216 1114 106 116 421 126 184 117 49 48 714 13 16 27 97 3 0 0 0 98 41 2 3 22 17 10 13 0 16 7 12 9 8 15 24 0 1 4 3 10 4 8 11 6 0 12 42 105 2 11 0 12 2
Last week 48 4560 26 303 1322 6944 625 736 3046 783 417 658 538 326 4752 65 75 94 596 16 12 5 4 751 245 51 43 124 73 45 61 102 71 33 103 49 41 101 157 31 2 38 18 60 40 152 46 24 79 153 200 678 10 44 38 41 17
Days since peak 9 52 129 57 88 47 80 51 62 106 52 150 152 52 9 53 141 145 136 81 36 28 114 123 133 151 140 136 151 107 7 39 115 106 79 122 30 117 14 46 130 46 47 148 143 159 154 142

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

DateUKEUBGDEESFRHRITPLPTRO
2020-09-12 41623 141974 717 9352 29747 30735 218 35603 2182 1860 4127
2020-09-13 41620 142100 729 9357 29790 30750 220 35620 2192 1863 4168
2020-09-14 41630 142300 734 9357 29830 30770 225 35630 2196 1866 4209
2020-09-15 41650 142400 746 9362 29870 30780 229 35640 2209 1869 4249
2020-09-16 41660 142600 755 9369 29910 30800 233 35650 2222 1871 4289
2020-09-17 41670 142700 760 9372 29950 30810 237 35660 2234 1874 4329
2020-09-18 41680 142800 767 9374 29990 30830 241 35670 2242 1877 4369
2020-09-19 41690 143000 771 9378 30030 30850 247 35680 2255 1880 4409

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-09-12 810 131210 9220 11895 22734 78586 8650 23029 70604 30470 4292 18426 15427 6999 193693 2217 969 5314 14327 12600 6141 1218 415 8295 3213 526 1057 5032 9190 3825 6834 1906 1632 2685 3047 434 16027 1449 33008 4411 899 505 7829 3040 2034 14332 2722 1987 1209
2020-09-13 818 132100 9224 11960 22970 79790 8807 23140 71060 30600 4333 18500 15530 7047 194600 2234 983 5383 14430 12630 6250 1228 418 8308 3214 534 1059 5080 9203 3832 6843 1907 1639 2688 3063 440 16040 1468 33010 4414 924 509 7844 3067 2068 14530 2734 1993 1211
2020-09-14 825 132400 9229 12020 23190 80950 8957 23260 71260 30730 4356 18550 15630 7095 194800 2237 997 5383 14470 12660 6260 1233 421 8315 3218 542 1062 5088 9217 3838 6852 1910 1645 2688 3069 443 16050 1468 33020 4428 933 510 7856 3083 2102 14560 2746 1998 1211
2020-09-15 833 133100 9233 12050 23410 82090 9102 23370 71950 30860 4385 18670 15740 7142 195500 2241 1011 5383 14560 12750 6301 1245 424 8331 3232 550 1068 5103 9231 3845 6861 1913 1652 2688 3092 448 16060 1472 33030 4449 944 514 7868 3095 2136 14660 2758 2004 1214
2020-09-16 840 134100 9237 12070 23620 83210 9259 23480 72490 30990 4454 18800 15840 7188 196600 2248 1025 5411 14710 12910 6350 1259 426 8358 3248 559 1082 5118 9246 3852 6870 1921 1659 2711 3134 454 16080 1491 33040 4472 959 521 7886 3125 2170 14810 2770 2010 1228
2020-09-17 848 135000 9241 12150 23840 84350 9438 23590 73020 31120 4536 18910 15940 7235 197500 2262 1039 5442 14820 13090 6418 1263 429 8383 3258 567 1099 5134 9260 3858 6878 1933 1666 2731 3162 458 16100 1511 33050 4504 978 523 7898 3155 2205 14870 2783 2016 1236
2020-09-18 855 135700 9245 12230 24060 85480 9589 23700 73510 31250 4586 19010 16040 7282 198400 2287 1053 5461 14950 13230 6463 1275 432 8411 3270 576 1108 5164 9275 3865 6887 1943 1673 2735 3194 460 16110 1518 33050 4543 995 526 7915 3199 2240 15080 2795 2022 1240
2020-09-19 862 136500 9250 12280 24270 86630 9740 23810 73930 31380 4719 19120 16150 7328 199100 2301 1067 5484 15030 13320 6509 1277 435 8428 3284 584 1117 5164 9290 3871 6895 1950 1680 2748 3222 460 16120 1527 33060 4550 1009 532 7918 3218 2276 15180 2807 2028 1251

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

DateUKEUBGDEESFRHRITPLPTRO
2020-09-12 41623 141974 717 9352 29747 30735 218 35603 2182 1860 4127
2020-09-13 41630 142100 723 9353 29780 30740 219 35610 2189 1861 4163
2020-09-14 41630 142300 729 9354 29820 30750 221 35620 2196 1864 4203
2020-09-15 41650 142400 739 9358 29860 30760 224 35630 2208 1867 4244
2020-09-16 41660 142600 747 9364 29900 30770 228 35630 2220 1869 4284
2020-09-17 41670 142700 755 9368 29940 30780 231 35640 2232 1872 4324
2020-09-18 41670 142900 763 9371 29980 30800 235 35650 2242 1875 4365
2020-09-19 41680 143000 770 9375 30030 30810 239 35660 2254 1878 4405

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-19

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-09-12 810 131210 9220 11895 22734 78586 8650 23029 70604 30470 4292 18426 15427 6999 193693 2217 969 5314 14327 12600 6141 1218 415 8295 3213 526 1057 5032 9190 3825 6834 1906 1632 2685 3047 434 16027 1449 33008 4411 899 505 7829 3040 2034 14332 2722 1987 1209
2020-09-13 817 131600 9222 11940 23010 79520 8766 23100 70820 30540 4306 18490 15510 7049 193900 2220 982 5323 14360 12610 6180 1223 417 8301 3214 529 1059 5061 9198 3829 6839 1906 1641 2689 3052 436 16030 1448 33010 4410 907 507 7832 3048 2052 14380 2731 1989 1209
2020-09-14 828 132100 9225 11990 23260 80580 8906 23170 71030 30680 4316 18570 15610 7102 194100 2224 996 5331 14400 12620 6205 1229 421 8309 3216 535 1063 5075 9208 3835 6853 1907 1653 2694 3062 439 16030 1451 33020 4420 914 508 7844 3062 2074 14420 2741 1992 1209
2020-09-15 838 132700 9229 12040 23450 81650 9051 23240 71710 30810 4347 18670 15710 7155 194500 2229 1009 5340 14500 12680 6248 1240 426 8326 3228 541 1068 5092 9220 3841 6867 1908 1664 2702 3084 442 16040 1456 33030 4439 924 513 7856 3078 2101 14500 2752 1995 1211
2020-09-16 849 133700 9232 12080 23760 82730 9202 23310 72250 30960 4406 18790 15800 7209 195200 2236 1023 5362 14660 12820 6295 1252 433 8350 3243 550 1079 5109 9232 3847 6881 1913 1675 2732 3123 446 16050 1470 33040 4459 937 518 7871 3104 2131 14620 2763 2001 1223
2020-09-17 860 134500 9236 12150 24040 83810 9373 23380 72800 31110 4472 18890 15900 7263 195900 2250 1038 5390 14790 12990 6361 1258 439 8374 3252 558 1091 5130 9245 3853 6895 1923 1687 2756 3150 449 16050 1493 33050 4487 951 521 7884 3132 2163 14710 2774 2005 1230
2020-09-18 871 135400 9240 12220 24320 84910 9528 23440 73290 31290 4527 18990 16000 7317 196700 2268 1052 5417 14950 13100 6419 1270 445 8398 3263 567 1099 5155 9258 3859 6909 1931 1698 2772 3180 452 16060 1504 33060 4516 965 525 7899 3167 2189 14900 2785 2009 1233
2020-09-19 883 136100 9243 12280 24590 86020 9692 23510 73800 31440 4597 19090 16100 7372 197200 2281 1067 5445 15040 13160 6476 1275 450 8417 3275 574 1107 5165 9271 3867 6923 1934 1710 2785 3216 454 16060 1516 33070 4537 978 530 7911 3192 2220 15020 2796 2012 1245

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-13 to 2020-09-21

DateUKEUBGDEESFRHRITPLPTROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-09-12 41623 141974 717 9352 29747 30735 218 35603 2182 1860 4127 810 131210 9220 11895 22734 78586 8650 23029 70604 30470 4292 18426 15427 6999 193693 2217 969 5314 14327 12600 6141 1218 415 8295 3213 526 1057 5032 9190 3825 6834 1906 1632 2685 3047 434 16027 1449 33008 4411 899 505 7829 3040 2034 14332 2722 1987 1209
2020-09-13 41630 142200 728 9356 29800 30770 220 35610 2196 1862 4169 821 131900 9223 11940 22940 79570 8769 23120 71080 30580 4292 18510 15560 7062 194400 2226 981 5334 14390 12650 6201 1229 419 8304 3217 526 1061 5075 9213 3833 6850 1906 1648 2697 3063 441 16030 1457 33020 4419 904 508 7844 3062 2034 14420 2737 1994 1209
2020-09-14 41640 142400 735 9359 29850 30790 223 35610 2209 1865 4207 830 132500 9226 11980 23130 80630 8870 23220 71540 30670 4295 18610 15640 7119 195000 2234 993 5352 14470 12710 6244 1236 426 8321 3227 533 1073 5107 9232 3841 6863 1912 1661 2709 3089 447 16040 1464 33020 4425 911 512 7852 3083 2064 14510 2752 2001 1214
2020-09-15 41650 142500 741 9362 29910 30810 226 35620 2224 1868 4241 838 133200 9228 12020 23320 81790 8961 23300 71990 30760 4342 18690 15710 7176 195500 2241 1003 5369 14520 12770 6286 1243 430 8334 3238 540 1081 5131 9254 3847 6870 1918 1677 2720 3111 453 16040 1471 33030 4429 918 515 7856 3102 2086 14590 2755 2008 1220
2020-09-16 41660 142700 747 9364 29980 30840 229 35620 2240 1871 4286 847 133800 9231 12060 23520 82840 9074 23380 72440 30850 4405 18790 15780 7221 196000 2248 1014 5385 14570 12830 6318 1248 435 8345 3251 547 1091 5154 9277 3855 6870 1925 1687 2730 3134 457 16050 1477 33030 4435 929 517 7858 3117 2111 14670 2768 2011 1224
2020-09-17 41670 142900 754 9366 30030 30870 232 35630 2257 1873 4322 854 134400 9232 12090 23690 83890 9190 23470 72850 30940 4459 18870 15840 7274 196400 2254 1024 5401 14590 12890 6362 1253 439 8356 3260 554 1099 5203 9303 3863 6877 1928 1695 2740 3158 462 16050 1484 33030 4441 934 520 7862 3134 2132 14740 2777 2018 1227
2020-09-18 41680 143000 759 9366 30090 30900 235 35640 2277 1875 4361 862 134900 9234 12120 23880 85140 9314 23550 73250 31010 4512 18950 15910 7347 196700 2261 1034 5411 14650 12950 6398 1257 439 8366 3269 561 1105 5245 9330 3872 6877 1932 1705 2750 3184 466 16060 1489 33040 4447 939 522 7866 3150 2153 14810 2800 2025 1231
2020-09-19 41690 143200 764 9366 30130 30920 238 35650 2305 1876 4387 867 135400 9235 12150 24030 86400 9426 23620 73670 31080 4560 19020 15970 7399 197000 2269 1044 5425 14690 13010 6421 1261 442 8372 3285 567 1112 5269 9358 3882 6877 1935 1719 2758 3209 470 16060 1494 33040 4452 946 524 7868 3164 2171 14870 2814 2033 1233
2020-09-20 41700 143200 768 9366 30170 30960 241 35650 2329 1878 4416 871 135900 9236 12170 24150 87550 9542 23670 74060 31150 4612 19080 16020 7444 197300 2275 1053 5440 14720 13050 6460 1266 445 8378 3298 574 1117 5288 9382 3895 6877 1938 1730 2768 3229 472 16070 1500 33040 4456 952 526 7869 3177 2190 14940 2834 2040 1236
2020-09-21 41710 143300 773 9366 30200 30990 244 35650 2354 1879 4450 877 136500 9237 12200 24300 88570 9646 23720 74410 31220 4658 19140 16080 7510 197600 2280 1061 5452 14770 13110 6485 1270 448 8385 3312 580 1123 5307 9409 3906 6877 1940 1739 2776 3250 472 16070 1505 33050 4462 958 528 7869 3189 2208 15000 2860 2044 1239

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths