COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-09-26

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-10	04-06	04-06	04-15	08-26	04-11	09-21	04-15	04-04	03-31	04-21	04-08	--	--	04-19	04-24	03-29	04-04	--	04-15	08-26	04-12	04-07	04-06
Peak daily increment	964	3095	20	328	9	7	15	226	15	946	30	943			13	167	781	153		31	44	98	8	60
Days from 100 to peak	23	33	7	22	104	0	166	22	3	18	1	23			6	21	25	15		17	146	18	-2	14
Days from peak/2 to peak	17	23	16	21	152	22	178	22	15	14	20	18			26	22	20	16		23	152	21	20	19
Last total	41971	146158	787	9974	789	277	591	9459	648	31232	343	31483	376	269	730	1802	35818	6366	2424	1944	4687	5880	270	2064
Last daily increment	35	207	1	5	0	0	10	8	1	0	0	0	7	3	12	5	17	38	32	8	54	0	0	0
Last week	194	2147	21	26	28	2	88	69	10	737	4	398	38	21	47	10	111	87	131	32	252	15	3	19
Days since peak	169	173	173	164	31	168	5	164	175	179	158	171			160	155	181	175		164	31	167	172	173

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-09-26

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	09-03	07-21	05-06	07-17	08-26	06-16	--	07-27	06-24	07-23	09-14	05-29	07-22	04-15	04-13	09-16	09-15	07-21	08-06	04-24	04-20	04-29	06-23	08-07	08-26	05-21	09-09	05-12	05-02	09-20	04-14	04-14	04-25	04-29	04-14	05-28	--	08-26	--	--	05-20	05-29	06-25	05-13	08-13	05-18	08-29	08-26	07-28	05-05	07-28	--	--	07-27	04-17	04-22	04-06	04-11	04-23
Peak daily increment	35	1065	168	785	338	1661		214	683	2947	151	171	323	125	2226	89	133	78	138	72	105	11	46	175	67	14	17	112	99	10	10	64	459	56	137	23		33			40	25	1566	9	18	3573	85	10	5	137	45			386	6	104	25	12	16
Days from 100 to peak	108	115	36	93	136	72		144	79	107	166	48	84	18	28	156	122	100	131	21	18	10	60	127	148	27	60	41	28	152	0	17	23	22	17	41		135			0	17	85	16	123	59	147	135	89	32	103			115	-45	7	15	2	-89
Days from peak/2 to peak	157	106	37	63	129	52		144	72	78	168	49	76	20	19	163	137	108	133	27	20	30	74	127	151	50	159	44	32	175	19	21	20	27	18	56		148			30	31	81	41	139	49	151	153	131	33	119			111	18	11	30	18	4
Last total	872	141406	9313	12591	25296	93379	10308	25394	76243	32037	5284	20140	16376	7929	204490	2501	1285	5621	15583	2040	4501	624	633	14022	6752	1314	460	8588	3351	635	1154	5262	9385	3914	6964	2004	1929	2911	3440	227	469	439	16103	870	1582	33108	4740	1004	542	8083	3323	218	2342	15707	368	3142	2096	1281	337
Last daily increment	2	869	7	64	193	1089	90	172	399	0	88	167	64	71	740	10	19	35	67	6	0	1	2	107	42	2	2	25	11	0	5	0	18	7	17	10	61	17	31	8	1	1	6	5	9	2	6	11	0	18	26	2	20	97	0	8	0	7	2
Last week	21	4511	46	305	1088	5497	755	1093	2750	668	300	791	423	423	4981	64	104	146	567	26	9	4	12	726	304	49	17	138	70	40	43	64	81	44	75	39	206	101	197	35	27	1	36	21	51	37	125	58	16	123	124	16	153	619	4	129	64	39	23
Days since peak	23	67	143	71	31	102		61	94	65	12	120	66	164	166	10	11	67	51	155	159	150	95	50	31	128	17	137	147	6	165	165	154	150	165	121		31			129	120	93	136	44	131	28	31	60	144	60			61	162	157	173	168	156

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO
2020-09-26	41971	146158	787	9974	789	591	9459	31232	31483	376	269	730	35818	6366	2424	1944	4687
2020-09-27	41990	146300	789	9977	798	605	9461	31320	31530	383	276	738	35840	6389	2457	1949	4715
2020-09-28	42010	146400	792	9981	801	619	9465	31400	31570	391	282	747	35850	6410	2481	1954	4737
2020-09-29	42040	146500	794	9984	805	633	9475	31480	31620	397	287	755	35870	6436	2514	1959	4781
2020-09-30	42070	146600	796	9987	813	647	9484	31560	31650	404	291	763	35880	6458	2546	1963	4826
2020-10-01	42090	146700	798	9990	819	661	9490	31630	31690	411	296	770	35900	6479	2575	1968	4862
2020-10-02	42120	146900	800	9993	822	675	9499	31710	31730	418	302	778	35920	6501	2605	1972	4902
2020-10-03	42150	147000	802	9996	823	689	9508	31780	31770	425	306	786	35930	6520	2625	1977	4947

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-26	872	141406	9313	12591	25296	93379	10308	25394	76243	32037	5284	20140	16376	7929	204490	2501	1285	5621	15583	2040	14022	6752	1314	8588	3351	635	1154	5262	9385	3914	6964	2004	1929	2911	3440	227	469	16103	870	1582	33108	4740	1004	8083	3323	2342	15707	3142	2096	1281	337
2020-09-27	877	141900	9319	12640	25480	94400	10420	25560	76550	32160	5327	20190	16440	7995	205000	2515	1305	5626	15660	2041	14050	6772	1318	8601	3353	643	1162	5306	9399	3920	6964	2014	1975	2923	3442	232	469	16110	873	1596	33120	4760	1005	8083	3348	2371	15800	3149	2096	1283	342
2020-09-28	882	142300	9324	12670	25650	95300	10530	25730	76720	32290	5371	20260	16510	8060	205400	2518	1323	5626	15690	2046	14080	6776	1330	8607	3358	650	1163	5314	9412	3926	6964	2018	2020	2926	3448	238	472	16110	876	1597	33120	4769	1006	8107	3359	2399	15840	3158	2100	1285	346
2020-09-29	886	143100	9330	12700	25830	96300	10640	25890	77340	32420	5415	20400	16570	8125	206300	2536	1341	5641	15810	2052	14180	6832	1339	8631	3369	658	1169	5326	9426	3932	6964	2025	2067	2952	3487	243	478	16120	879	1610	33130	4798	1017	8121	3382	2444	15940	3168	2115	1291	350
2020-09-30	891	143400	9335	12720	26000	97200	10750	26060	77830	32540	5458	20540	16640	8189	207300	2562	1357	5665	15920	2058	14360	6900	1347	8654	3380	665	1176	5333	9440	3938	6964	2030	2114	2975	3519	249	482	16140	882	1621	33140	4841	1025	8149	3404	2485	16070	3179	2127	1300	355
2020-10-01	896	144700	9341	12830	26170	98200	10860	26220	78250	32670	5501	20670	16700	8253	208100	2578	1374	5700	16010	2062	14530	6948	1350	8680	3394	673	1189	5349	9454	3944	6964	2036	2162	2986	3554	254	483	16150	885	1629	33150	4874	1035	8161	3423	2537	16170	3189	2129	1305	359
2020-10-02	900	145400	9346	12890	26340	99100	10970	26380	78670	32800	5545	20780	16770	8317	209000	2581	1391	5733	16120	2065	14660	6996	1360	8703	3411	680	1198	5369	9469	3949	6964	2043	2210	3002	3598	260	488	16150	888	1638	33160	4903	1047	8177	3444	2597	16290	3199	2144	1313	363
2020-10-03	905	146200	9351	12950	26510	100000	11080	26540	79030	32920	5589	20920	16830	8381	209700	2591	1408	5761	16190	2071	14730	7039	1361	8725	3422	687	1205	5369	9483	3955	6966	2053	2261	3017	3625	265	488	16160	891	1647	33170	4904	1055	8191	3464	2630	16390	3210	2144	1319	368

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO
2020-09-26	41971	146158	787	9974	789	591	9459	31232	31483	376	269	730	35818	6366	2424	1944	4687
2020-09-27	41990	146300	788	9975	793	600	9462	31290	31510	380	273	733	35830	6370	2431	1948	4704
2020-09-28	42010	146600	790	9977	797	610	9466	31380	31540	387	277	740	35850	6374	2439	1953	4737
2020-09-29	42030	146800	792	9979	801	621	9474	31460	31560	395	280	747	35860	6380	2452	1958	4773
2020-09-30	42060	147100	794	9981	808	632	9484	31540	31590	401	284	754	35880	6386	2469	1963	4809
2020-10-01	42080	147400	797	9983	814	643	9490	31630	31620	409	287	761	35900	6394	2486	1967	4844
2020-10-02	42100	147700	799	9986	819	655	9499	31710	31650	413	293	768	35910	6402	2503	1972	4880
2020-10-03	42130	147900	801	9990	822	665	9506	31790	31670	419	296	776	35930	6409	2517	1977	4917

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-26	872	141406	9313	12591	25296	93379	10308	25394	76243	32037	5284	20140	16376	7929	204490	2501	1285	5621	15583	2040	14022	6752	1314	8588	3351	635	1154	5262	9385	3914	6964	2004	1929	2911	3440	227	469	16103	870	1582	33108	4740	1004	8083	3323	2342	15707	3142	2096	1281	337
2020-09-27	874	141800	9317	12620	25380	94140	10410	25490	76380	32110	5323	20190	16430	7983	204600	2505	1293	5625	15590	2041	14040	6767	1317	8597	3352	640	1157	5283	9398	3917	6969	2007	1940	2916	3443	228	470	16110	871	1585	33110	4738	1005	8091	3335	2365	15750	3160	2097	1281	340
2020-09-28	876	142200	9324	12660	25500	95100	10530	25610	76520	32210	5377	20280	16480	8044	204800	2514	1306	5631	15620	2044	14070	6784	1327	8607	3355	647	1160	5296	9412	3923	6974	2010	1960	2919	3448	230	472	16110	873	1588	33120	4744	1007	8112	3348	2396	15800	3184	2099	1282	345
2020-09-29	879	142900	9331	12700	25590	95980	10660	25730	77140	32320	5435	20410	16540	8108	205500	2530	1321	5641	15740	2049	14140	6832	1335	8629	3365	655	1165	5310	9426	3928	6981	2017	1992	2945	3475	233	477	16110	876	1600	33120	4767	1014	8127	3369	2429	15900	3208	2108	1286	349
2020-09-30	882	143300	9336	12740	25760	96910	10780	25850	77630	32450	5493	20530	16600	8172	206200	2551	1336	5660	15850	2053	14310	6888	1342	8652	3376	663	1172	5322	9441	3934	6989	2023	2030	2968	3506	238	481	16120	879	1610	33130	4804	1022	8151	3390	2462	16030	3232	2116	1294	354
2020-10-01	884	144400	9341	12820	25880	97970	10900	25970	77970	32580	5552	20650	16660	8237	206800	2565	1351	5685	15940	2056	14480	6929	1347	8676	3389	673	1182	5340	9455	3939	6996	2030	2056	2982	3537	243	483	16130	882	1619	33130	4836	1030	8165	3410	2498	16130	3256	2119	1299	359
2020-10-02	887	145100	9347	12880	26000	98980	11010	26090	78410	32710	5609	20760	16720	8303	207400	2579	1366	5709	16060	2059	14610	6973	1357	8698	3404	682	1190	5362	9469	3945	7004	2039	2091	2998	3572	248	486	16130	885	1632	33140	4871	1040	8178	3434	2534	16260	3280	2126	1305	363
2020-10-03	890	145800	9354	12940	26190	99960	11130	26200	78790	32810	5684	20890	16780	8369	207900	2595	1381	5729	16150	2064	14690	7015	1361	8720	3414	689	1197	5372	9484	3951	7011	2050	2126	3014	3600	255	487	16130	888	1641	33150	4879	1046	8192	3452	2568	16380	3305	2128	1311	369

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-05

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-PA	US-SC	US-TN	US-TX	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-26	41971	146158	787	9974	789	591	9459	31232	31483	376	269	730	35818	6366	2424	1944	4687	872	141406	9313	12591	25296	93379	10308	25394	76243	32037	5284	20140	16376	7929	204490	2501	1285	5621	15583	2040	14022	6752	1314	8588	3351	635	1154	5262	9385	3914	6964	2004	1929	2911	3440	227	469	16103	870	1582	33108	4740	1004	8083	3323	2342	15707	3142	2096	1281	337
2020-09-27	42000	146500	790	9980	797	605	9471	31340	31520	383	274	736	35840	6366	2430	1947	4697	874	142100	9321	12630	25420	94300	10430	25520	76570	32130	5342	20190	16440	7991	205000	2512	1287	5623	15660	2043	14090	6772	1322	8612	3360	651	1161	5285	9397	3919	6967	2010	1929	2923	3450	228	472	16110	871	1590	33110	4765	1004	8103	3339	2358	15820	3182	2103	1284	342
2020-09-28	42030	146800	792	9980	801	617	9483	31440	31550	389	277	745	35860	6366	2449	1952	4726	876	142800	9332	12670	25550	95120	10540	25660	76950	32220	5396	20320	16500	8058	205700	2517	1299	5641	15730	2046	14160	6803	1327	8644	3375	661	1168	5296	9413	3926	6975	2016	1959	2936	3473	234	475	16110	876	1597	33120	4783	1011	8126	3352	2377	15930	3209	2110	1290	345
2020-09-29	42050	147000	794	9990	804	636	9494	31550	31570	397	282	752	35890	6381	2464	1958	4755	878	143600	9341	12720	25670	95930	10650	25770	77310	32300	5438	20410	16560	8126	206600	2524	1306	5662	15800	2049	14250	6833	1332	8675	3392	668	1174	5311	9427	3933	6979	2020	1990	2947	3495	241	478	16120	880	1604	33120	4803	1017	8148	3367	2395	16040	3232	2116	1295	347
2020-09-30	42070	147300	795	9990	808	655	9503	31640	31590	407	286	758	35910	6384	2496	1963	4783	880	144300	9351	12770	25780	96590	10770	25920	77670	32370	5491	20480	16620	8193	207500	2530	1314	5681	15860	2052	14330	6859	1335	8709	3408	678	1181	5327	9443	3942	6985	2024	2019	2959	3518	250	481	16120	885	1610	33120	4818	1023	8164	3379	2415	16160	3247	2121	1301	349
2020-10-01	42090	147400	796	10000	811	669	9514	31730	31610	414	290	765	35940	6387	2511	1968	4811	882	145000	9360	12810	25900	97290	10910	26060	77990	32420	5542	20540	16670	8262	208200	2536	1319	5699	15910	2056	14410	6879	1339	8749	3428	690	1189	5344	9458	3947	6991	2029	2063	2967	3540	255	483	16120	890	1616	33120	4827	1030	8193	3391	2434	16270	3274	2126	1308	352
2020-10-02	42100	147600	797	10000	813	686	9527	31840	31630	422	294	770	35970	6389	2528	1973	4825	883	145700	9369	12850	25970	98000	11030	26170	78330	32470	5582	20580	16720	8329	208900	2541	1323	5717	15970	2060	14480	6904	1342	8786	3452	700	1195	5361	9472	3955	6996	2031	2094	2976	3551	262	486	16130	896	1621	33120	4841	1034	8218	3403	2447	16380	3288	2130	1313	354
2020-10-03	42110	147700	801	10000	816	699	9536	32000	31660	430	299	775	36000	6391	2547	1977	4849	885	146300	9378	12900	26050	98540	11150	26250	78690	32540	5622	20620	16760	8397	210000	2544	1326	5733	16030	2064	14560	6927	1345	8823	3475	711	1203	5374	9485	3961	6999	2034	2119	2984	3568	268	487	16130	901	1626	33120	4852	1037	8244	3413	2460	16480	3309	2134	1318	356
2020-10-04	42120	147900	803	10010	818	714	9541	32180	31680	438	303	780	36020	6391	2564	1982	4864	886	146900	9387	12930	26120	99010	11260	26300	78960	32590	5664	20660	16800	8462	210800	2548	1329	5751	16080	2067	14620	6948	1347	8864	3498	721	1212	5390	9494	3968	7004	2036	2146	2992	3581	274	487	16140	908	1630	33120	4864	1039	8271	3424	2468	16580	3331	2138	1322	358
2020-10-05	42130	148100	804	10010	821	728	9550	32380	31700	448	307	783	36050	6391	2583	1988	4880	887	147500	9396	12970	26200	99300	11380	26380	79220	32630	5697	20690	16840	8529	211500	2553	1333	5765	16120	2071	14670	6958	1347	8903	3523	732	1221	5397	9506	3976	7008	2038	2181	2999	3596	280	489	16140	914	1634	33120	4875	1044	8296	3433	2480	16670	3355	2140	1326	360

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-09-26

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