COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2020-10-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2020-10-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)09-2406-1909-0708-1508-3109-24 --09-2308-1006-1904-2109-18 --09-1308-1007-2308-1508-12 --07-0508-3109-0108-1406-16
Peak daily increment 29 805 5 9 9 1 10 1 914 30 58 4 1 4 127 8 7 44 4 3 7
Days since peak 7 104 24 47 31 7 8 52 104 163 13 18 52 70 47 50 88 31 30 48 107
Last total 42202 148073 802 10023 825 282 678 9509 651 31973 344 31816 393 284 781 1806 35918 6419 2543 1977 4862 5893 274 2074
Last daily increment 59 415 3 7 0 2 23 14 1 182 0 47 2 4 16 2 24 13 30 6 37 0 0 0
Last week 266 2122 16 54 36 5 97 58 4 741 1 333 24 18 63 9 117 91 151 41 229 13 4 10
Previous peak date04-1004-0604-0604-1506-0504-11 --04-1504-0403-31 --04-08 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2404-1505-0304-1204-0704-06
Previous peak daily increment 964 3095 20 328 5 7 226 15 946 943 13 167 781 153 26 31 25 98 8 60
Low between peaks 6 -892 0 2 2 -2 3 0 -1351 7 0 0 6 -6 3 10 -4 0 1

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2020-10-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2105-0607-1708-2109-12 --07-2706-2407-2309-1405-2907-2204-1508-0409-1609-1507-2108-0609-0507-1309-0906-2308-0708-2208-2709-0905-1208-1509-2009-0108-0908-2004-2909-0905-2809-2608-26 -- --05-2005-2906-2505-1308-1308-3108-2908-2207-2805-0507-28 --08-2007-2707-3009-1508-06 --08-31
Peak daily increment 37 1065 168 785 322 1148 214 683 2947 148 171 323 125 1077 91 128 78 138 8 9 1 46 175 66 10 19 112 12 9 9 36 106 56 37 23 28 31 40 25 1566 9 18 26 89 10 5 137 45 26 386 4 67 13 5
Days since peak 28 72 148 76 41 19 66 99 70 17 125 71 169 58 15 16 72 56 26 80 22 100 55 40 35 22 142 47 11 30 53 42 155 22 126 5 36 134 125 98 141 49 31 33 40 65 149 65 42 66 63 16 56 31
Last total 890 144680 9368 12822 26196 98678 10856 26380 78078 32463 5562 20796 16866 8262 207789 2548 1384 5673 15973 2054 4511 627 636 14444 6896 1366 472 8696 3418 672 1191 5329 9474 3943 7022 2049 1949 2979 3579 256 493 441 16127 882 1603 33137 4817 1035 560 8144 3400 236 2466 16130 377 3225 2127 1348 359
Last daily increment 2 728 22 81 198 0 116 211 432 67 58 166 132 67 857 8 15 24 88 3 3 0 0 127 42 8 3 24 13 3 17 8 24 4 19 13 5 10 47 10 15 2 5 5 3 8 13 4 1 14 22 13 43 114 0 20 5 21 4
Last week 20 4143 62 295 1093 5299 638 1158 2234 426 366 823 554 404 4039 57 118 87 457 20 10 4 5 529 186 54 14 133 78 37 42 67 107 36 75 55 81 85 170 37 25 3 30 17 30 31 83 42 18 79 103 20 144 520 9 91 31 74 24
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- --06-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 -- -- --04-13 -- -- -- --04-2404-2004-29 -- --04-0705-21 -- --05-02 --04-1404-1404-25 --04-14 --04-30 -- -- -- -- --04-22 --04-1205-1804-2904-17 -- --04-29 -- -- --04-1704-2204-0604-1004-23
Previous peak daily increment 1662 144 92 2226 72 105 11 44 14 99 10 64 459 137 17 317 10 3573 76 8 24 6 104 25 12 16
Low between peaks 388 54 20 534 2 3 1 12 3 5 4 12 -1 6 5 52 3 7 15 1 6 1 9 -17 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRGRHUITNLPLPTRO
2020-10-01 42202 148073 10023 825 678 9509 31973 31816 393 781 35918 6419 2543 1977 4862
2020-10-02 42260 148200 10030 830 706 9527 32090 31870 400 790 35940 6436 2572 1983 4904
2020-10-03 42320 148400 10040 831 723 9535 32190 31930 407 798 35960 6451 2600 1988 4948
2020-10-04 42370 148500 10050 837 742 9541 32290 31980 414 806 35970 6462 2628 1993 4978
2020-10-05 42410 148800 10050 845 762 9547 32380 32030 421 814 35990 6466 2655 1999 5002
2020-10-06 42450 149200 10060 850 786 9557 32470 32080 428 823 36010 6479 2683 2004 5045
2020-10-07 42500 149700 10070 860 811 9569 32560 32130 435 831 36030 6487 2712 2009 5081
2020-10-08 42540 150100 10080 863 833 9580 32650 32180 442 839 36040 6499 2740 2014 5116

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-01 890 144680 9368 12822 26196 98678 10856 26380 78078 32463 5562 20796 16866 8262 207789 2548 1384 5673 15973 2054 14444 6896 1366 8696 3418 672 1191 5329 9474 3943 7022 2049 1949 2979 3579 256 493 16127 1603 33137 4817 1035 8144 3400 236 2466 16130 3225 2127 1348 359
2020-10-02 895 145500 9385 12870 26370 99000 11030 26570 78610 32580 5593 20860 16880 8325 208800 2556 1404 5708 16110 2058 14600 6968 1370 8714 3423 687 1201 5364 9489 3950 7022 2052 1963 3001 3616 265 493 16140 1623 33150 4873 1045 8168 3430 236 2495 16280 3242 2134 1358 364
2020-10-03 899 146300 9400 12930 26540 99500 11120 26760 78970 32700 5628 21010 16940 8387 209500 2563 1424 5735 16180 2062 14690 7008 1371 8738 3434 688 1207 5364 9504 3957 7024 2062 1977 3016 3651 273 494 16140 1630 33150 4875 1055 8184 3447 240 2518 16370 3258 2141 1372 368
2020-10-04 904 146700 9414 12980 26710 99900 11210 26940 79130 32810 5665 21100 16960 8448 209700 2563 1443 5735 16190 2066 14690 7032 1372 8750 3437 688 1208 5382 9520 3961 7027 2067 1991 3022 3686 281 494 16150 1632 33160 4877 1057 8189 3452 243 2520 16400 3275 2148 1380 372
2020-10-05 908 147000 9428 13030 26880 100300 11310 27120 79290 32930 5702 21160 17080 8508 210000 2563 1462 5735 16220 2069 14700 7040 1380 8759 3445 696 1211 5394 9534 3967 7030 2072 2005 3023 3720 289 497 16150 1632 33170 4882 1058 8200 3461 247 2529 16440 3292 2155 1387 377
2020-10-06 913 147800 9442 13060 27040 100700 11430 27300 79850 33040 5739 21310 17180 8569 210900 2578 1481 5748 16360 2073 14800 7078 1395 8780 3461 704 1218 5404 9549 3972 7033 2078 2019 3054 3754 297 503 16170 1643 33180 4919 1069 8211 3482 250 2560 16540 3309 2162 1400 381
2020-10-07 918 148500 9456 13070 27210 101200 11570 27490 80310 33150 5777 21470 17240 8630 211800 2602 1500 5768 16460 2077 14980 7113 1410 8811 3478 722 1223 5412 9564 3979 7036 2089 2033 3070 3789 306 505 16170 1649 33190 4949 1080 8239 3500 254 2590 16650 3326 2169 1421 386
2020-10-08 922 149400 9471 13170 27380 101600 11690 27670 80710 33260 5815 21620 17350 8691 212700 2615 1519 5791 16540 2081 15120 7155 1415 8835 3492 723 1239 5423 9580 3984 7040 2099 2047 3081 3824 314 514 16180 1653 33200 4964 1085 8251 3520 257 2627 16750 3343 2176 1434 390

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRGRHUITNLPLPTRO
2020-10-01 42202 148073 10023 825 678 9509 31973 31816 393 781 35918 6419 2543 1977 4862
2020-10-02 42260 148400 10030 830 699 9526 32140 31880 395 792 35940 6435 2571 1983 4900
2020-10-03 42300 148700 10040 833 713 9534 32240 31930 401 800 35960 6452 2594 1989 4938
2020-10-04 42340 149000 10040 838 728 9540 32340 31990 406 809 35970 6463 2618 1994 4972
2020-10-05 42370 149300 10050 845 745 9545 32440 32040 411 818 35990 6470 2641 2000 5005
2020-10-06 42410 149600 10060 850 761 9555 32540 32100 417 827 36010 6481 2664 2005 5042
2020-10-07 42440 150000 10060 857 779 9564 32640 32150 422 836 36030 6489 2688 2010 5078
2020-10-08 42470 150300 10070 862 797 9572 32740 32210 430 846 36040 6500 2712 2016 5114

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-01 890 144680 9368 12822 26196 98678 10856 26380 78078 32463 5562 20796 16866 8262 207789 2548 1384 5673 15973 2054 14444 6896 1366 8696 3418 672 1191 5329 9474 3943 7022 2049 1949 2979 3579 256 493 16127 1603 33137 4817 1035 8144 3400 236 2466 16130 3225 2127 1348 359
2020-10-02 893 145400 9380 12870 26410 99300 10970 26550 78500 32560 5615 20930 16950 8328 208600 2553 1402 5696 16090 2057 14560 6936 1377 8720 3437 683 1201 5344 9494 3949 7033 2058 1960 2994 3618 264 499 16130 1609 33140 4836 1046 8160 3419 241 2500 16240 3245 2139 1364 364
2020-10-03 896 146100 9388 12930 26620 100200 11060 26690 78870 32660 5677 21070 17010 8394 209100 2562 1419 5719 16160 2061 14640 6975 1380 8742 3448 685 1206 5350 9508 3955 7041 2067 1983 3009 3646 272 501 16140 1616 33150 4837 1054 8174 3436 244 2522 16330 3263 2141 1373 369
2020-10-04 899 146600 9395 12980 26790 101000 11140 26820 79030 32770 5732 21170 17070 8459 209200 2568 1435 5728 16170 2063 14660 7005 1384 8756 3451 687 1210 5365 9522 3961 7049 2072 2001 3015 3670 277 502 16140 1619 33160 4840 1058 8184 3444 246 2533 16380 3281 2142 1376 373
2020-10-05 903 147000 9403 13030 26950 101900 11230 26950 79180 32880 5785 21260 17140 8525 209400 2575 1452 5738 16200 2066 14680 7024 1391 8767 3459 694 1214 5376 9536 3967 7057 2077 2017 3018 3695 282 505 16140 1620 33170 4842 1061 8196 3456 249 2548 16420 3298 2145 1378 377
2020-10-06 906 147800 9412 13070 27080 102800 11360 27080 79730 32990 5841 21390 17210 8592 209900 2589 1470 5751 16320 2070 14750 7061 1403 8787 3474 702 1220 5389 9550 3973 7065 2083 2039 3046 3725 286 509 16150 1630 33170 4869 1070 8209 3475 251 2574 16530 3316 2156 1390 383
2020-10-07 909 148400 9420 13110 27280 103700 11480 27210 80220 33100 5897 21530 17270 8659 210500 2608 1487 5772 16430 2074 14900 7105 1413 8812 3486 714 1226 5400 9565 3980 7074 2092 2063 3065 3755 294 512 16150 1639 33180 4903 1079 8233 3494 254 2598 16660 3334 2162 1402 387
2020-10-08 913 149300 9428 13180 27400 104600 11610 27340 80670 33240 5953 21650 17340 8727 211000 2622 1505 5797 16520 2078 15060 7155 1418 8835 3497 717 1236 5414 9579 3986 7082 2098 2084 3077 3783 302 516 16160 1647 33190 4926 1087 8251 3512 258 2625 16770 3352 2165 1408 392

Deaths count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-10

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRGRHUITNLPLPTROAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-10-01 42202 148073 10023 825 678 9509 31973 31816 393 781 35918 6419 2543 1977 4862 890 144680 9368 12822 26196 98678 10856 26380 78078 32463 5562 20796 16866 8262 207789 2548 1384 5673 15973 2054 14444 6896 1366 8696 3418 672 1191 5329 9474 3943 7022 2049 1949 2979 3579 256 493 16127 1603 33137 4817 1035 8144 3400 236 2466 16130 3225 2127 1348 359
2020-10-02 42220 148300 10030 830 694 9509 31990 31850 402 784 35930 6425 2560 1982 4894 894 145300 9372 12860 26320 99900 10960 26440 78460 32570 5630 20870 16880 8324 208300 2556 1391 5690 16050 2057 14510 6927 1368 8710 3426 678 1192 5342 9475 3950 7022 2049 1980 2993 3579 262 493 16130 1611 33140 4834 1041 8162 3414 236 2467 16220 3242 2135 1348 363
2020-10-03 42270 148600 10040 835 713 9510 32100 31900 406 794 35930 6430 2575 1988 4926 897 145900 9383 12900 26440 100600 11060 26630 78830 32650 5692 21000 16940 8385 208900 2564 1397 5707 16120 2059 14600 6959 1372 8730 3440 684 1197 5353 9485 3957 7025 2054 2005 3004 3597 270 493 16140 1617 33140 4850 1047 8178 3427 240 2492 16300 3254 2141 1348 367
2020-10-04 42300 149000 10040 840 728 9511 32240 31930 412 800 35930 6435 2594 1994 4956 900 146500 9391 12940 26560 101500 11180 26790 79200 32740 5746 21120 17010 8441 209500 2571 1404 5725 16200 2062 14690 6989 1378 8755 3454 689 1203 5362 9498 3963 7031 2060 2025 3012 3621 277 497 16140 1622 33140 4861 1053 8195 3437 243 2514 16370 3267 2147 1354 370
2020-10-05 42320 149300 10050 844 744 9518 32350 31990 418 808 35930 6442 2618 1999 4980 902 147100 9398 12980 26650 102000 11290 26940 79540 32820 5793 21200 17080 8502 210000 2578 1411 5739 16270 2064 14760 7017 1382 8770 3465 696 1207 5371 9507 3968 7036 2066 2045 3021 3641 286 501 16150 1627 33140 4873 1058 8207 3446 246 2537 16440 3279 2152 1358 374
2020-10-06 42340 149700 10050 849 766 9520 32490 32040 424 814 35940 6447 2644 2005 5007 905 147600 9406 13020 26750 103000 11380 27110 79860 32910 5838 21280 17140 8549 210500 2584 1415 5753 16330 2066 14810 7039 1385 8789 3476 702 1212 5379 9518 3972 7044 2071 2065 3029 3682 293 505 16150 1632 33140 4885 1063 8219 3455 249 2557 16510 3290 2158 1363 377
2020-10-07 42380 150000 10060 852 793 9520 32630 32100 431 819 35940 6455 2666 2011 5031 907 148200 9415 13060 26830 103600 11470 27240 80170 32990 5879 21340 17200 8591 210900 2591 1423 5769 16400 2068 14880 7060 1388 8825 3486 707 1215 5388 9522 3976 7048 2074 2080 3036 3703 302 510 16160 1637 33140 4893 1069 8231 3463 251 2582 16570 3302 2163 1367 380
2020-10-08 42400 150200 10060 854 815 9520 32760 32160 437 823 35940 6458 2685 2017 5051 908 148700 9422 13090 26930 104200 11570 27410 80460 33050 5923 21380 17270 8628 211300 2596 1428 5784 16470 2069 14950 7085 1391 8842 3495 712 1218 5397 9527 3979 7051 2078 2096 3043 3715 310 515 16160 1642 33140 4902 1073 8240 3471 255 2602 16630 3314 2167 1370 382
2020-10-09 42420 150500 10070 857 836 9524 32880 32210 440 828 35940 6458 2708 2023 5068 909 149200 9430 13120 27000 104900 11660 27530 80740 33110 5966 21420 17330 8668 211600 2602 1434 5799 16530 2070 15020 7108 1395 8863 3505 718 1222 5405 9535 3982 7055 2080 2102 3051 3728 319 518 16160 1646 33140 4910 1077 8248 3478 258 2617 16700 3324 2171 1374 384
2020-10-10 42440 150700 10070 860 854 9529 32970 32250 445 833 35940 6458 2733 2028 5088 911 149800 9434 13160 27110 105400 11750 27670 80960 33160 6004 21440 17400 8696 212000 2607 1439 5812 16600 2071 15080 7129 1398 8885 3515 724 1225 5412 9543 3984 7057 2081 2118 3057 3748 329 521 16170 1650 33140 4918 1080 8259 3484 261 2639 16760 3335 2174 1379 386

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths